Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van Noordwijk
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Transcript of Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van Noordwijk
II. Trade-offs at landscape & watershed level – an
introduction
Meine van Noordwijk
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural SystemsIdentifying and quantifying trade-offs across temporal and spatial scalesbetween productivity, food security, profitability and ecological services
Wageningen, February 2013
Landscape Space
People
Land Use Systems
Institutions
Functions, services
GeologyLand forms
Climate
VegetationFlora&fauna
Hydrology
Value chains Landscape -
Planning, Incentives
mul
tifun
ction
ality
Te
nure
Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with
action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural
intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Essentially there are only two possible conditions for any specific field of science
At least some of the evidence is conflicting with the most compre-hensive of current theories
Current theory is aligned with all credible known facts
Theory of Change• Implement a rational pathway to achieve change
that is deemed desirable by funders and accep-table by gatekeepers
Question common Answers
Change of Theory
Answer open Questions
Our daily struggle called science
Impact Pathway, Monitoring & Evaluation
Van Noordwijk et al. (2011)
Sub-system interactions
RulesIncentivesMotivation
Governance & Management
Van Noordwijk et al. (2011)
RulesIncentivesMotivation
Governance& Management
Politi
cal p
rom
inen
ce
pe
ople
* in
fluen
ce *
con
cern
Stage of the issue cycle
Scoping Stakeholder Negotiation Implemen- Re-eva- analysis response tation luation
Is it a problem?
Cause-effect mechanisms
Who’s to blame?
What will it cost?
Regulate and/or reward
Implement & monitor
Evaluate, re-assess
Who’ll have to pay?
What can be done to stop, mitigate, undo or adapt?
How much and where?
Who will monitor compliance? Litigation
Tomich et al. 2004
LocalEcological
Knowledge
Modeler’sEcological
Knowledge
Public/PolicyEcological
Knowledge
Based on ‘categories’
Based on ‘processes’direct ‘observables’
includes balance sheets
Laws
Urban folksLocal
govt
Socialscientists
Econo-mists
Eco-logists
Women
MenLowland/
upland
a) Multi-agent system (MAS) simulation models
b) Roles-playing games
van Noordwijk et al. 2001
Agreements with external agents (female)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
% la
nd a
rea
Year
Burnt area
Oil palm
Logged forest
Rubber agroforest
Forest
Rice land0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
% la
nd a
rea
Year
Burnt area
Oil palm
Logged forest
Rubber agroforest
Forest
Rice land0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
% la
nd a
rea
Year
Burnt area
Oil palm
Logged forest
Rubber agroforest
Forest
Rice land
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6Green Rubber agents 2 4 5 4 3 2 20Save Harimaw 9 4 15 0 0 0 28Waterboard 14 0 0 0 0 0 14Oil palm 0 0 0 0 6 1 7Logging 0 0 0 0 0 1 1Total 70
Agents Number of Stickers ∑
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6
No.
of a
gree
men
ts
Desa Buat Laman Panjang Lubuk Beringin
Desa Buat Laman Panjang Lubuk Beringin
C. In
dica
tors
*
B. O
bjec
tives
*
J. O
ther
sta
keho
lder
s
F. Trusted
sources of
information* eval
uatio
n
inputs
E. Options & incentives for change*
XYZ. Uncontrollable variation & change
G. R
ating
& ra
nkin
g*H
. Dec
isio
n m
akin
g* I.
Impl
emen
ting*
Focus can be: plot, farm, land use system, landscape mosaic, subcatchment, …with associated ‘managers’ and ‘external stakeholders’
D. (Dis)satisfaction with status quo*
A. Understanding of SES dynamics*
Drivers value chains Actors land use Land cover change Environmental
services
LeverageScenario’s,
Carrots, sticks, sermonsAdditionality relative to BAU
Displacement/leakageCo-benefits
Benefit distribution
Supply/demand price & investmentBusiness models, planning mechanisms
Direct benefits gender
Underlying Direct
Land use zoning, use and property rights
Human popula-tion & Δ
Mar-ket access, tax,subs.
Management&
behavioural choices of land users
Food, fibre, income Harvestable products
Provisioning services
Regulating, supporting & cultural services
Land use practices in a landscape
context
Human & environmental health&well-being
Commodity-product- ser-vice value chains, x-border trade
Waterflows (quality,quantity, regularity)
Macro-&me-so climateBiodiversity
Happiness monitoring
Economic development planning
Environmental & wellfare targeted planning
GDP, national econo-mic growth or decline
Natural ca-pital ac-counting
Sust
aina
ble
deve
lopm
ent m
etric
s
AgTech
New green economy, integrated rural-urban development coalitions…
Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with
action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural
intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Partnership in responsive and adaptive research for/on/in development efforts, strengtheningcapacity
Zero net land degra-dation
SLO1
SLO2
SLO3
SLO4
Rio
conv
entio
ns
M
illen
nium
Dev
elop
men
t Goa
ls
Sust
aina
ble
Dev
elop
men
t Goa
ls
UNFCCC CBD UNCCDAichi targets: areas, aware-ness, species, governance, incentives
Low emission development;Reduce vulnerability through adaptationRe
vers
e ne
gativ
e tr
end
Mai
ntai
n &
acc
eler
ate
prog
ress
Rural income growth & empowerment at bottom of the gendered pyramid
Food supply growth > growth in demand; food price affordable at bottom of gendered pyramid
Nutritional aspects of health improve at bottom of gendered pyramid
(Agr
o-)E
cosy
stem
goo
ds &
ser
vice
s
Landscape interactions:
Old-growth
http://www.cifor.org/es/crp6/research-portfolio.html
Tree cover transitions as uni-fying concept for livelihoods, landscape and governance aspects
Which trees are part of “forest”, which ones part of the “agroforest”?
1. Undisturbed natural forest 2. Undisturbed + sust. logged natural forest 3. Closed canopy undisturbed + logged forest 4A. as 3 + agroforest 4B. as 3 + timber plantations 4C. as 3 + agroforest + timber plant’s + estate crops 4D as 4C + shrub
Rainforest foundation
Conservation agency
Modis data
Ministry of ForestryForest ecologist
UNFCCC definition
Stakeholder:
A view from the modern LU planners kitchen:
From the “silo- approach” to (intensive) agriculture, production forestry and conservation areas set-
aside, we can cook a landscape that is more
palatable than any of the ingredients, by adding
local preferences, using a variety of tools
Integrate Segregate
Farm fo-restry,
agrofo-rests
Natural forest
Fields, Forests & Parks
Open field agriculture
Plan
tatio
ns
Fiel
ds,fa
llow
, for
est m
osai
c
forest modification
agroforestation
re
- and
affo
rest
ation
defo
rest
ation
Spatially fine-grained and coarse patterns coexist and have advocates
Crop pro-duction
Tree pro-duction
Watershedservices
BiodiversityLandscape
beauty
Carbon storage
Pcrop Ptree Cstore Wsh Biod Land
Convex likely
Concave likely
No preference
Synergies be-tween functions
Paddy - (semi)perma-nent rice fields in wet places ~ irrigation/ drainage systems
Swidden – rotational temporary food crops +
fallow
Forest edge – source of timber & NTFP’s for local
use and trade
CoreForest
Expand paddy domain Fallow AgroforestShort (semi)domesticated fallows forest products
Market-driven logging by concessionairs
Use of fertilizer, pes-ticides, short-cycle, short-straw, HYV rice + vegetables/ palawija
Permanent Intensifiedopen-field agroforest,crops Pas- tree crops ture
Industrial Industrial tree crop timber plantation plantation
Permanently cropped, technical irrigation agriculture //urbanizing
‘Transmi- Smallholdergration’ Pas- tree crops / towns ture homegarden
Large-scale tree (crop) plantations
Protec-tedarea
Structured landscapes have
predictable land use patterns
that change as part of intensification
Paddy - (semi)perma-nent rice fields in wet places ~ irrigation/ drainage systems
Swidden – rotational temporary food crops +
fallow
Forest edge – source of timber & NTFP’s for local
use and trade
CoreForest
Expand paddy domain Fallow AgroforestShort (semi)domesticated fallows forest products
Market-driven logging by concessionairs
Use of fertilizer, pes-ticides, short-cycle, short-straw, HYV rice + vegetables/ palawija
Permanent Intensifiedopen-field agroforest,crops Pas- tree crops ture
Industrial Industrial tree crop timber plantation plantation
Permanently cropped, technical irrigation agriculture //urbanizing
‘Transmi- Smallholdergration’ Pas- tree crops / towns ture homegarden
Large-scale tree (crop) plantations
Protec-tedarea
Fully intensified landscape components
Extensively used landscape
Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with
action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural
intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
The logarithm of human population density is a good predictor of the fraction of land area reported as forest (across different forest
types)We can identify countries that
have more than 10% extra, or
more than 10% forest deficit
relative to what is expected for their
population density
For 29 Developing Countries reporting increases in fo-rest area (“beyond forest transition point”), the pattern
matches that of 83 other Developing Countries
However, FT patterns are less likely in countries that have more than 10% forest deficit
A key assumption in the CGIAR is the Borlaug hypothesis that ag yield increase will save forests…
There’s a little bit of evidence suporting it, but not a lot…
Increasing log PopDens
decreases forest cover
Increasing Ag Land
Suitability increases
forest cover
Increasing Cereal Yield
(weakly) increases
forest cover
Forest decline is correlated with
Forest recovery is correlated with
Overall pattern dominated by humid forest, dry forest data deviate
Some evidence for Central America suggests that Recovery part of the FT curve correlates with Human
Development Index (HDI)
There’s a In the global data set however, country level HDI does not add much clarity to the pattern
There is some indication of a curvi-linear relation between HDI and the forest cover excess/deficit
Pre- post FT
Increase in HDI replaces firewood footprint by foot-print based on forest fibre
Forest transition points are less likely where the firewood footprint still exceeds 0.15 ha p.p.
Meyfroidt P, Rudel TK, Lambin EF (2010) Forest transitions, trade and the global displacement of land use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, XXXX
Outline
• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with action
• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural intensification?
• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Persistence
Change sustainagility
Social stressors originating within and among community/ies
Economic stressors due to market
fluctuations & policy shifts
Climatic stressors: means, variability and
change
Access to under-utilized resources for
innovative use
Access to new markets, satisfying new types of
demand
Landscape buffers &
filters Pover-ty?
Resource accessibility
Innovation support
Shielding networks
Market access & insurance
65
4
321
http://www.worldagroforestry.
org/sea/Publications/files/manual/MN0048-11/MN0048-11-1.pdf
Outline
• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with action
• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural
intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Atmospheric concentrations of short- and longlived greenhouse gassesAt
mos
-ph
ere
Climate systems
An
thro
pog
en
ic
GH
G
em
issio
ns
Impacts of actual & predicted
climate change on human and ecosystems
Adaptation
Mitigation
Vulnerability
Human actions .
Human quality of life
Oth
er
pote
nti
al
eff
ect
s on c
lim
ate
syst
em
s
Exogenous variabiliy
Rainbow water, the missing colour
• Grey water: added focus on pollution, cleansing and re-use water shortage relates to ‘quality’
Rainbow wa-ter closes the hydrological cycle, adds the concept of terrestrial evapotranspi-ration as ‘recycling’
Rainbow =Recycled Atmospheric Inputs Now Benefitting our Water-supply
• Blue water: traditionally hydrology studies water flow in rivers, its use for irrigation, industrial & domestic uses water shortage & floods
• Green water: realized that water use in ‘upper watersheds’ is increased by forests & trees
Blue waterstreamflow
Rainfall triggering conditions
Precipi-tation
Rainbow waterAtmospheric transport
Soil & ground-water buffering
Gre
en w
ate
r ET
evap
otr
an
spir
ati
on
There are in-teresting but controversial ideas that fo-rests generate wind that trans-ports water vapour…
Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x
37%
% of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.)
68%58% 30%
40%41% 46% 22%
42%
1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river
basin.
Approximately a third comes
from ‘local’ sources
van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele ‐Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,
E/P
Pfrom Et/P
Why India and China should invest in draining the Sudd and letting the water evaporate in Egypt in stead… and why West
Africa should be opposed to it
Deforesting Myanmar
will reduce rainfall in
China
S. Africa policies regarding Euca-lyptus water use cannot be di-rectly transfer-red to E. Africa
Keys PW, van der Ent RJ, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Nikoli R and Savenije HHG, 2012. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746
Dryland agricultural areas where more than 50% of rainfall is derived from terrestrial recycling
Sahel
Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with
action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural
intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic
effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Work in progress: A global portfolio of CRP6 Sentinel
landscapes
Sentinel landscape design?Sentinel landscape design?
Can it run?Can it run?
Poly-centric von Thuenen circles
Four (nested) ways to think about landscapes and primary stratifiers
Dendritic–river based
Topose-quence
Topose-quence
Linear– road-based
Landscape reorganization at river road transition
Geological history, pat-terns & current activity
Global climate systems based on oceans, land & atmosphere
Flora and fauna and its biogeography
Land forms,vegetation,ecosystems,hydrology
Initial human land
use
Late-stage hu-man land use
Land use is predictable from ‘reading the landscape’
Land use dominates over original terrain features
Remote sensing + groundtruthing,
space-based characterization of
vegetation, soil, etc.
Stratified household
(HH) survey +focusgrou
p discussions
(FGD’s)Natural terrain boundaries, watersheds & hydrological data, ecological zones
Administrative delineations & statistics
Range of methods to analyze knowledge, objectives, dissatisfaction, options for change, constraints & abilities to change.
Pantropical CGIAR domain
Pantropical set of “sentinel landscapes”
Internal variation in each sentinel landscape
Observation clusters
Criteria and process used to make selection
Criteria and process used to make selection
Criteria and process used to make selection
Representativeness & bias on key dimensions
Representativeness & bias on key dimensions
Representativeness & bias on key dimensions
Observation points
Criteria and process used to make selection
Representativeness & bias on key dimensions
Data-setsMethods bias control processing
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
Spatial planning tool, inclusive of opportunity costs analysis for “mitigtion” planning, actions that can change land cover, local economy etc
Next steps: LUMENS, Land use for multiple environmental services
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/Publications/files/booklet/BL0040-12.PDF
Conclusions• Landscape & watershed: linking
kowledge with action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)
• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 vs SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for
agricultural intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-
climatic effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools
Tradeoffs exist at
nearly all scales we look at, we need (and have…) a
broad portfolio of
tools
Tools:Global data setsSpatial analysisSentinel landscapesMultiple-knowledge appraisalsTree-Soil-Crop modelsSystem tradeoff plotsPolicy Analysis MatrixAgent-based modelsRole-Play GamesParticipatory LU plansLearning landscapes
Forests, Trees and Agroforestry: livelihoods, landscapes and governance
Key tradeoff questions in CRP6
1.CGIAR SLO1+2+3 vs 4
2.Forest vs People
3.Sparing, sharing, caring
4.Buffers vs intensification
5.Tree cover transitions vs ES functions
6.Tree water use vs climate influence
7.Terrestrial C stock vs Income
8.Motivations to reduce emissions
9.Small vs large scale investors
10.Subsistence & markets by gender roles