Workshop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific the Sce… · John Keynes (1936) Ragnar...
Transcript of Workshop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific the Sce… · John Keynes (1936) Ragnar...
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Workshop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
8-10 December 2015United Nations Conference Centre, MR-A
Bangkok, Thailand
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Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
Setting the Stage
Sudip Ranjan BasuEconomist
8 December 2015
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Outline
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• A brief review of macromodels
• Initiatives at United Nations
• Way forward
• Structure of workshop
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Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
A brief review of macromodels
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Over 90 years of macromodels “science is a public knowledge, reproducible knowledge”
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
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GD
P g
row
th (
%)
Great Depression(1929)
John Keynes(1936)
Ragnar Frisch(1932)
Lawrence Klein ‘ Brookings-SSRC model project’ (1964-1969)
UN SDGs(2015-2030)
Great Recession(2007/2008)
Asian Financial Crisis(1997/1998)Oil Crisis
(1973) US Economic Recession(1990/1991)
Cowles Commission/Foundations
(1932/1955)
Hendry(1995)
Jan Tinbergen(1935)
Source: Sudip Ranjan Basu, based on Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, (Copyright Angus Maddison)
Klein-Goldberger(1955)
UN MDG(2000-2015)
Latin American Debt Crisis(1980s)
DSGE-Kydland & Prescott(1982)
UN Project LINK(1969)
World bank-IMF-OECD Global Multi-Country Models
(1990s)
Lucas Critique: Rational expectation (1976)
Sims Critique-VAR+SVAR/GVAR (1980)
Age of Klein
Klein CQM (2002-2009)
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UNCTAD(1968)
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Over 90 years of macromodels
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Looking backward –reminiscing and looking forward –dreaming
• Development of macromodel followed economic theories and thoughts
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Objectives of macromodels
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Forecasting
• Policy simulation
• Lessons learnt– Policy modelers need to be in touch with emerging policy priorities and constraints and
engaged in frequent dialogue with policymakers
– Important part of efficient policymaking-decision makers to act rationally by making them fully aware of the repercussions and of the potential policy reforms to steer economy –wide impact analysis
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Constructing macromodels
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Data requirements
• Technical framework
• Trained manpower
• Financial resources
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Types of macromodels
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Characteristics of models (eg, Keynesian type)
• Frequency –Annual + high-frequency (quarterly and monthly)
• Size of models
• Sectors, and linkages
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Prototype macromodel from national to multi-country
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Comparison of the different time-series
• Check estimated coefficients
• External shocks
• Lessons learnt:
– One country model is at great variance with others, behavioral equations have not been adequately estimated
– Some equations have to be estimated in different countries-often has be re-specified and re-estimated several times
– Iterations leads to the formulation of general and robust equations to simulate the working of economic relationships
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Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
Initiatives at United Nations
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Models at UN system
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• UN/UNCTAD Model, since 1968..
• UN/UNDESA Project LINK, since 1969..
• Regional UN models– ECAFE/ESCAP
– ECLAC
– ECE
– ECA
– ESCWA
• World Bank-IMF-OECD
• Regional Development Banks– Asian Development Bank
– Inter-American Development Bank 12
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Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
Way forward
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Global and regional context
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Regional macroeconomic policy spillover
• Trade policies, including protectionism
• Financial sector linkages
• Dependence on primary commodities
• Income inequality
• Energy sector & climate change
• 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
– Sustainable Development Goals14
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Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
Structure of workshop
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Workshop-cum-Training
Worksop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific
• Day 1, 8 December 2015
– Country Presentations
• Day 2, 9 December 2015
– Country Presentations
– Special Presentations
• Day 3, 10 December 2015
– Building national macromodels
• Way forward:
– Recommendations
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High-level Policy Dialogue on the Strategic Regional Partnershipfor 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific
Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +662288152417