Workshop on Foundational issues in risk assessment and ...li/materials/workshop-aven-2012-5.pdf ·...
Transcript of Workshop on Foundational issues in risk assessment and ...li/materials/workshop-aven-2012-5.pdf ·...
Welcome
Workshop on
Foundational issues in
risk assessment and risk management
Hotel Laurin in Salò, Milano, Italy, 3-4 August 2012
-Systems Science and the Energetic challenge,
-Institut des Sciences du Risque et de l’Incertain (ISRI),
Centre of risk management
and societal safety
(SEROS)
Terje Aven,
University of
Stavanger, Norway
Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers
University, USA Tony Cox, Cox
Associates, USA
Seth Guikema,
John Hopkins
University, USA
Elisabeth Paté-
Cornell, Stanford
University, USA
Enrico Zio,
Politecnico di
Milano, Italy,
ECP, France
Sven Ove Hansson,
The Royal Institute of
Stockholm, KTH,
Sweden
Roger Flage Elisabeth S.
Fiskå
Mitchell Small,
Carnegie Mellon
University, USA
Henning Boje
Andersen, Technical
University of Denmark,
DTU
The background
How it all started
my interest for foundational issues in risk
assessment and management
Statfjord A
Piper Alpha
Frequency/probability
Loss of
lives
categories
1-2 >100
Foundation Concepts, principles
Risk assessment
and
risk management
Shaky
Seth Guikema Ortwin Renn Enrico Zio
What is risk? What is terrorism risk? Assessment approaches, risk
management principles
Uncertainities in risk assessments, model uncertainties
Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
- Paté-Cornell, M.E. (1996) Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of
treatment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54 (2-3), 95-111.
-
Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2012) On black swans and perfect storms: risk analysis
and management when statistics are not enough. Risk Analysis.
Sven Ove Hansson
Möller, N., Hansson, S.O., Person, M., 2006. Safety is more than the
antonym of risk. Journal of Applied Philosophy 23, 419–432.
Aven (2008) Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives
of risk. Safety Science
Tony Cox
Cox, T. (2012) Confronting Deep Uncertainties in Risk
Analysis. Risk Analysis
Cox (2011) How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead
Terrorism Risk Analysts
Cox (2010) Why Risk Is Not Variance: An Expository Note
…
Henning Boje Andersen Mitchell Small
Lee B. Clarke
Foundation Concepts, principles
Risk assessment
and
risk management
Shaky
Engineering Transpor-
tation … Finance Medicine
Knowledge about the «World»
Concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles and methods
for
understanding, assessing, managing and communicating risk,
vulnerability and uncertainties
Risk assessment and management in different
applications
1980-90s • Thompson KM, Deisler Jr. PH, Schwing RC. Interdisciplinary vision: The
first 25 years of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 1980–2005. Risk
Analysis, 2005; 25:1333–1386.
• Nuclear risk community
Where is this enthusiasm now?
• Have we solved the fundamental problems
of risk assessment and risk management ?
• Have these fields now a strong foundation?
No, No, No
Foundation Concepts, principles
Risk assessment
and
risk management
Shaky
• «Risk = expected loss»
Risk
P X C
• For some experts “risk” equals expected loss of life expectancy (HM Treasury 2005, p. 33).
• Traditionally, hazmat transport risk is defined as the expected undesirable consequence of the shipment, i.e. the probability of a release incident multiplied by its consequence (Verma and Verter 2007).
• Risk is defined as the expected loss to a given element or a set of elements resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude (Lirer et al. 2001).
• Risk refers to the expected loss associated with an event. It is measured by combining the magnitudes and probabilities of all of the possible negative consequences of the event (Mandel 2007).
• Terrorism risk (Willis 2007): The expected consequences of an existent threat, which for a given target, attack mode, target vulnerability, and damage type, can be expressed as the probability that an attack occurs multiplied by the expected damage, given that an attack occurs.
• Flood risk is defined as expected flood damage for a given time period (Floodcite 2006).
x
John offers you a game:
throwing a die
• ”1,2,3,4,5”: 6
• ”6”: -24
What is your risk?
Risk
(C,P):
• 6 5/6
• -24 1/6
Is based on an important
assumption – the die is fair
Assumption 1: …
Assumption 2: …
Assumption 3: …
Assumption 4: …
…
Assumption 50: The platform jacket structure will withstand
a ship collision energy of 14 MJ
Assumption 51: There will be no hot work on the platform
Assumption 52: The work permit system is adhered to
Assumption 53: The reliability of the blowdown system is p
Assumption 54: There will be N crane lifts per year
…
Assumption 100: …
…
“Background knowledge” • Assumptions
• Data
• Models
• Expert opinions
Model: A very crude gas dispersion model is applied
Existing frameworks, principles and concepts
Terje Aven,
University of
Stavanger, Norway
Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers
University, USA Tony Cox, Cox
Associates, USA
Seth Guikema,
John Hopkins
University, USA
Elisabeth Paté-
Cornell, Stanford
University, USA
Enrico Zio,
Politecnico di
Milano, Italy,
ECP, France
Sven Ove Hansson,
The Royal Institute of
Stockholm, KTH,
Sweden
Roger Flage Elisabeth S.
Fiskå
Mitchell Small,
Carnegie Mellon
University, USA
Henning Boje
Andersen, Technical
University of Denmark,
DTU
Workshop
Revitalise the focus and enthusiasm for fundamental issues in the
risk field
How should we proceed?
Output/deliverable from the workshop:
•A “special issue” of Risk Analysis comprising a set of relatively short
perspective papers – 5-6 pages - of reflections and points of views of the
participants; not methods and applications but reflections on: are we
addressing the right questions with the proper analytical frameworks?
Theories,
frameworks,
principles,
methods,
concepts
Today Future
Theories,
frameworks,
principles,
methods,
concepts
New types of systems
and risks
Risk and uncertainty conceptualization, assessment and
management in case of deep uncertainties …
Deep
uncertainties
Black swans
Unknown
unknowns
The need for seeing beyond probability to assess risk
Foundation Concepts, principles
Risk assessment
and
risk management
Substance of
various
issues
What issues,
challenges,
and how to
proceed
Issue Issue
Issue Issue
Issue Issue Issue
Issues
General challenges and
measures to meet them
General challenges/ obstacles
Measures
Lack of fora SRA speciality group
ESRA group SRA expert group
This workshop
Few young researchers
Identification of talented young researchers
Workshop
Few papers This process Special issues The other measures
Refute unfortunate conceptions
The journals should establish scientific pillars of the fields
The other measures
…
SRA speciality group
Decision Analysis and Risk
Dose-Response
Ecological Risk Assessment
Economics and Benefits Analysis
Emerging Nanoscale Materials<>
Engineering and Infrastructure
Exposure Assessment
Microbial Risk Analysis
Risk and Development
Risk Communication
Risk Policy and Law
Security and Defense
+ Fundamental issues ?
• Establish a forum for young talented
researchers where fundamental issues is
a key topic
Aven, T. (2012) Foundational issues in risk assessment
and risk management. Risk Analysis.
• The SRA should revitalize its work on foundations and establish a group of
experts to discuss and clarify issues related to fundamental definitions
• and principles.
• The leading journals in the risk fields should encourage more contributions
focusing on foundational issues to refute obvious unfortunate conceptions.
• The journals should develop documents showing the scientific pillars of the
fields to guide reviewers and editors in the paper-reviewing processes.
• Experts in the risk fields should be more involved in standardization
committees to ensure that the directions supported by the standards are in
line with the best competence and knowledge available.
General challenges/ obstacles
Measures
Lack of fora SRA speciality group
ESRA group SRA expert group
This workshop
Few young researchers
Identification of talented young researchers
Workshop
Few papers This process Special issues The other measures
Refute unfortunate conceptions
The journals should establish scientific pillars of the fields
The other measures
…
Workshop program ideas
and structure