Workshop:Evaluations as a policy instrument for sustainable development How can we improve the learning process in political decision-making?

Stockholm October 18, Johan Harvard

Workshop program

13.00 WelcomeJohan Harvard, Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis

13.00 – 13.20 The Power of Knowing: Why Improved Evaluation and Learning are Needed to Realise the Green FutureJohan Harvard, Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis

13.20 – 13.40 Dealing with Complex Policy Evaluations – The European Social FundSteffen Ovdahl, Ramböll Management Consulting

13.40 – 14.30 Plenary Panel DiscussionComments byErik Fahlbeck, Chief Analyst, Economic Analysis Secretariat, Ministry of Enterprise

Barbro Widerstedt, Analyst, Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis

Steffen Ovdahl, Senior Consultant, Ramböll Management Consulting

Presentation:The Power of Knowing: Why Improved Evaluation and Learning are Needed to Realise the Green Future

Stockholm October 18, Johan Harvard

Summary

• Lots of policy movement in the SD/GG-field, in developed countries

• Complex challenges – complex policy• Policy is not sufficiently/appropriately evaluated• Lessons not learned – inefficient policy and wasted tax

money• However – SD/GG policy very complex to evaluate• Thereby – SD/GG policy evalutions difficult to use for

policymakers

Key terminology• Evaluation vs Monitoring vs Benchmarking

• Evaluating process/implementation, results, impact

• Factual vs Counterfactual: Need to assess additionality

Green policy is picking up speed

• European Union’s Growth Strategy for 2020• Korea’s National Strategy and Five-Year-Plan for green

growth• Green development focus of China’s Five-Year-Plan• South Africa’s New Growth Path and Green Economy

Accord

Needs highlighted• Wish to stimulate sustainable growth: push for action

Analysis preceding policy action• Ex-ante analysis

Policy Action• Decisions are made

Implementation• Execution of policy

Learning after/during implementation• Lessons learned

New policy cycle

1

2

3

4

5

6

StatusPolicy Process: Crucial Elements Flawed

What is being done today?

• Local/regional level– Yes: Some monitoring/evaluation of implementation and results

– No: Impact evaluations are very rare

• National level– Yes: Benchmarking, monitoring macro indicators

– No: Impact evaluations, system evaluations linking policy to outcomes – very rare

Consequence: Suboptimal policy

• If you do not measure results, you cannot tell success from failure.

• If you cannot see success, you cannot reward it.• If you cannot reward success, you are probably

rewarding failure.• If you cannot see success, you cannot learn from it.• If you cannot recognize failure, you cannot correct it.• If you can demonstrate results, you can win public

support

Source: Adapted from Osborne & Gaebler 1992.

But… difficult problem to address

• SD/GG policy is inherently complex– Policy on all levels simultaneously (local/regional/national/

international)– Very different types of policies implemented simultaneously

(supply/demand, skills/capital/incentives/market)– External factors very important (economic turmoil, global market

demand, competition)– Conflicting objectives (economic growth vs sustainability)– Multiple policy areas – many different actors in play– Interaction effects

Simple – Complicated - Complex

• Simple problems - Like baking a cake. A few basic techniques but once mastered likelihood of success is high

• Complicated problems - Like sending a rocket to the moon. No straightforward recipe often require multiple people and teams. Unanticipated difficulties are frequent. Timing and coordination become serious concerns

• Complex problems - Like raising a child. Once you learn how to send a rocket to the moon. You can repeat and improve the process. One rocket is like another rocket. But raising one child is not like raising another. Each is unique. Once child may require a completely difference approach to the previous one. This brings up another feature of highly complex problems. Their outcomes remain highly uncertain. Source: Rogers (2008)

Evaluating SD/GG policy• Qualitative evaluation

– Contribution analysis– Theory-based approach– etc

• Quantitative evaluation– Comparison groups (deal with selection bias)– Quasi-experimental methods (PSM, Discontinuity etc)– Difference-in-difference (if unobservables are time invariant)

• There is no one solution need combinations – mixed methods

Useful evaluation – evaluation utilization• Currently – partial evaluations are carried out – leading to

inability to draw clear conclusionsDifficult to use these evaluations

Patton:• ”Evaluations should be judged by their utility and actual

use; therefore, evaluators should facilitate the evaluation process and design any evaluation with careful consideration of how everthing is done, will affect use”

• Focus on intended use by intended users• Mutual responsibility of users and evaluators

Sweden’s Cleantech Industry Development Strategy - Evaluation• Encompassing 4x100 Million SEK over 2011-2014,

currently 18 programs launched to help business grow– Include supply and demand side policies: export advisory

services, innovative public procurement, cleantech incubation, inward FDI, commercialization & export of public sector expertise, establishing business-research development consortia’s, matching of investors-investees, etc.

• Evaluation: – Process, Results, Impacts– Top-down + Bottom-up– Quantitative + Qualitative– Utilization: Hoping for process use as well as instrumental use

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Need of systematic improvement of evaluations – more impact evaluations

• Authorities should not underestimate the complexity and importance of impact evaluations– Need better incentives? Will cost more initially!

• Evaluators should improve their use of best methods for impact evaluation – including use of quantitative methods

Questions• We need more and better evaluations on all levels – how

can this be achieved? – Incentives for impact evaluations?– How can we make sure evaluations include economic and

environmental aspects – not either or?

• How can the procurement of evaluations improve, to facilitate better evaluations and improve evaluation use?

• Complex evaluations - difficult to use for policymakers: how can this be overcome? Capacity for use?

• Could/should policy be designed differently, to facilitate evaluation?– …if a changed design would compromise quality?