Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and

access to services

Prof. Simin DavoudiDirector of Social Systems

Institute for Research on Environment and Sustainability (IRES)Newcastle University

ESPON SeminarEvora, 11-13 Nov. 2007

Declining share of European population

•EU 25: 460 m. in 2005– +3.9% since 1990

•National differences:– Cyprus grew by 31%– Estonia declined by 14%– Slovenia and Poland

remained constant (0.1%+ and 0.4%+)

•EU share of world population:– 16% in 1950; 7% in 2005– By 2030 Europeans will

account for 1 in 16 of the world’s population, down from 1 in 6 in 1950.

The Ageing Europe

Fall in fertility rate – 2.7 in 1960, 1.4 in 2001 – To below reproduction rate

(2.1) in all MS – Lowest in e.g. Northern

Spain, Eastern Germany – Highest in e.g. Northern

Finland and Ireland

Fall in mortality rateIncrease in longevity

– Share of 60+ from 21% in 2000 to 30% by 2030

– Share of -20 from 23% to 15%

– Life expectancy rises from average 76.5 to 84.5 years

‘A Silver Century’

Median age in 2000 Median age in 2030

Sever ageing: 50-60 years by 2030

•Examples of regions with highest median age:

– North West Spain– Northern Italy– Sardinia– Corsica– Eastern Germany– Scotland– Central Poland– Central Portugal

Migration

•Dominant intra-EU flows: – Periphery to core – East to West

•Immigration from outside the EU

•Out-migration of highly qualified workers

•Migration is age-specific •yellow-red: young; Blue-green: old

Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s

•Population gain– 60% of NUTS regions

– 30% due to natural and migratory rises

– 20% due to selective (young) migration, despite low fertility

– 10% due to negative migration but positive natural balance

Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s

•Population loss– 40% of NUTS3 regions

– 88 of 133 most declining are in Germany

– Some are old industrial areas

– Many are relatively rural, sparsely populated and geographically remote

Shrinking regions

• Depopulation of small towns and rural areas• Due to a ‘triple demographic time bomb’:

– Too few children– Too many old people– Too many young adults leaving

• Counter-urbanisation– E.g. in the UK some 1700 people move out of

the cities every week to live in countryside

Key Socio-economic challenges

• Shrinking workforce– shortage of skilled labour– declining competitiveness of European economy

• Late entry to and early exist from the labour market – Squeeze of workforce particularly among higher

socio-economic groups

• Rising dependency ratio (2 to 1 by 2030)– longer working hours, higher taxes

Key socio-economic challenges cont.

• Growing number of older people– raising the cost of health care and pension

• The ‘Ageing Europe’– putting pressure on the European social model

and welfare provision

• ‘Grey’ voting power– shifting public spending away from nurseries and

schools to health care and retirement homes, – blocking reform to retirement age and pension

schemes

Key socio-economic challenges cont.

• Social differentiation among older people– poverty and isolation among some who mainly

live in urban areas using distance care packages versus

– luxury life among others living in large houses with ‘carer quarters’, in retirement destinations

• Immigration– response to demographic restructuring – increase in the cost of integration (employment,

housing, crime, health care and education) – social and cultural tensions

• Differentiated patterns of demographic change:– An age element to: east / west, centre /

periphery, south / north, urban / rural divisions

– Countries with highest level of ageing population versus

– countries with youngest population

• Concentration of immigration from outside Europe in large and mainly capital cities

Key territorial challenges

Key territorial challenges

Different territorial destinations for intra-European migration:

– affluent retirees moving from north to south and Mediterranean regions,

– east European workers searching for job in western European countries

Key territorial challenges cont.

• Meso level territorial differentiation: metropolitanisation, depopulation and counter-urbanisation

– Growing population in metropolitan areas both in western and eastern Europe versus

– Depopulation of rural areas in eastern and western peripheries, central part of Germany, central and north Italy

– Shrinking regions with declining basic services

Key territorial challenges cont.

• Micro level spatial segregation

– Affluent older people moving to rural areas with lower crime rates, good access to health services and pleasant climate versus

– lower income older people remaining in urban areas