Workforce Analytics of the Future: Using Predictive Analytics to Forecast Talent Needs

Featuring John Boudreau, Professor and Research Director at USC’s Marshall School of Business and the Center for Effective Organizations

NOVEMBER 11, 2014

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NOVEMBER 11, 2014

Today’s Speaker

Featuring John Boudreau, Professor and Research Director at USC’s Marshall School of Business and the Center for Effective Organizations

Workforce Analytics of the Future: Using Predictive Analytics to Forecast Talent Needs

@HBRExchange | #HBRwebinar

NOVEMBER 11, 2014

© 2014 University of Southern California

Talent and HR Analytics:Prediction in an Unpredictable World

Harvard Business Review WebinarNovember 11, 2014

John W. BoudreauProfessor and Research DirectorUniversity of Southern Californiajohn.Boudreau@usc.edu

© 2014 University of Southern California

HR “Now” vs. “Should Be”(Scale: 1=No role; 2=Occasional role; 3=Active support role; 4=Primary input role; 5=Leader and key expert)

3.753.5 3.43 3.31

2.83 2.74 2.58 2.49

1.91

4.68 4.574.27 4.35

4.064.32 4.27

4.444.09

1

2

3

4

5

Globalization GenerationalDiversity

Sustainability Social Media PersonalTechnology

MassCustomization

OpenInnovation

Big Data Gamification

Role of HR Inside HR Now(Mean)

Role of HR Inside HR- Should Be(Mean)

Have arrived Emerging on the Horizon

7

© 2014 University of Southern California (8)

Data Challenges and High Performance(i4cp, 2012)

© 2014 University of Southern California (9)

HRIS Systems Automated but Not Integrated(Lawler-Boudreau Global HR Trends, 2015)

PERCENTAGES

STATE OF INFORMATION SYSTEM

USA1 CANADA2 AUSTRALIA3 EUROPE4 INDIA6 CHINA7

Little or No Information Technology/ Automation Present in the HR Function

7.4 17.1 18.2 9.8 15.1 50.7

Some HR Processes Are Information Technology Based/ Automated 29.4 39.0 31.8 24.4 22.6 34.8

Most Processes Are Information Technology Based/ Automated But Not Fully Integrated

55.9 41.5 50.0 46.3 49.1 11.6

Completely Integrated HR Information Technology/ Automated System

7.4 2.4 0.0 19.5 13.2 2.9

Meana 3.637 3.277 3.327 3.767 3.607 2.54123456

EL111W

© 2014 University of Southern California (10)

HRIS Outcomes Relate to HR Effectiveness(Lawler-Boudreau Global HR Trends, 2015)

HRIS OUTCOMES Overall HR Effectiveness

Employee Satisfaction .44***

Effective .39***

Create Knowledge Networks .34***

Build Social Networks That Help Get Work Done .29**

© 2014 University of Southern California

Today’s Successes• Large financial services firm: Analyzed thousands of applicants, and

found that grades and school quality were least predictive of unit revenues.

• Google proved that asking questions such as “How many golf balls can you fit into an airplane?” don’t predict anything.

• Many companies now predicting turnover likelihood, “getting into people’s heads” before they even know they are thinking of leaving.

• First Data: Predicting attrition and reducing time- to-fill; Impact of team size and geographical distance on consultant’s attrition risk; Quantifying the impact of sales performance and compensation on employee attrition risk.

• Associating employee attitudes with front-line job performance. Sears Holding reports the relationship between 100,000 employee “MoodRing” responses per day, from 2000 stores, to examine if mood predicts business outcomes

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Copyright © 2014 John W. Boudreau <john.boudreau@sbcglobal.net>. All rights reserved.

Predictive Analytics: Promises and Dangers

Rational Talent Strategy

(Competitive Advantage, Talent

Pivot Points)“The Right Logic”

Effective Knowledge Management (Values, Culture, Influence)

“The Right Process”

Valid Questions and Results(Information, Design, Statistics)

“The Right Analytics”

HR Metrics and Analytics That Are

A Force For Strategic Change

Sufficient Data(Timely, Reliable,

Available)“The Right Measures”

13 ©2014 EXec EXcel Group LLC

Trends Driving Future HR: Boudreau-Ziskin

Hero leadership Collective leadership

Fatigue Sustainability

Sameness Segmentation

Intellectual property Agile co‐creativity

Persuasion Education

Employment value proposition

Personal value proposition

© 2014 University of Southern California

Return on Improved Performance (ROIP)Strategic Value

PerformanceLow High

Starbuck’s Barista’s High Risk‐Return

McDonald’s Associates Low Risk‐Return

© 2014 University of Southern California (15)

Is Your Performance Distribution “Normal?”

© 2014 University of Southern California

Implications for HR Leaders(Boudreau-Ziskin)

Reaching Out…Infuse Talent from Outside HR

Venturing Out…Influence Beyond Function, Company, and Geographic Boundaries

Seeking Out…Find and Surface Unpopular Truths

Breaking Out…Lead Transformational Change and Actions

© 2014 University of Southern California

Dr. John Boudreau, Professor and Research DirectorCenter for Effective Organizations, Marshall School of BusinessUniversity of Southern California<john.boudreau@usc.edu>

Thank you!

17

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OCTOBER 17, 2012

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NOVEMBER 11, 2014