Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience

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A D A P T I N G E X P E R I E N C E S

F R O M V I E T N A M S C I T I E S

T O O T H E R C I T I E S

A W O R K B O O K

PLANNINGFOR URBAN

RESILIENCEI N T H E FA C E O F

DISASTERS

PLANNINGFOR URBAN

RESILIENCE

DISASTERSFatima Shah and Federica Ranghieri

on

665


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A Workbook on

Planning for

Urban Resilience in the

Face of Disasters


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A Workbook on

Planning for

Urban Resilience in the

Face of Disasters

Adapting Experiences fromVietnams Cities to Other Cities

Fatima Shah and Federica Ranghieri

Washington, D.C.


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2012 International Bank or Reconstruction and Development / International Development

Association or

The World Bank

1818 H Street NW

Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000

Internet: www.worldbank.org

1 2 3 4 15 14 13 12

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ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-8878-5

ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-8939-3DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8878-5

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Editing and internal design and layout by Nita Congress. Cover design by Drew Fasick.


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v

Contents

Foreword ix

Acknowledgments xiii

About the Authors xvii

Executive Summary xix

Abbreviations xxv

1. Introduction and Context 11.1 Vietnams Hazard Profile 7

1.2 National Policy and Institutional Environment 9

1.3 Opportunities or Coordination 14

2. Demystifying the Local Resilience Action Plan 172.1 Steps in Local Resilience Action Planning 18

2.2 Results Matter 27

3. Sensitization 293.1 STEP 1. Conduct Qualitative Vulnerability Sel-Assessment 29

3.2 STEP 2. Establish Links to City Vision and Strategy 43

3.3 STEP 3. Establish an LRAP Team 45

4. Technical Analysis 494.1 STEP 4. Conduct City-Scale Spatial Analysis 49

4.2 STEP 5. Identiy Target Areas 55

4.3 STEP 6. Conduct Spatial Analysis o Each Target Area 58

4.4 STEP 7. Identiy Specific Vulnerabilities 64


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vi A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

5. Stocktaking and Needs Assessment 675.1 STEP 8. Perorm Institutional Mapping 68

5.2 STEP 9. Inventory Other Partners 74

5.3 STEP 10. Assess Gaps 75

6. Option Identification and Program Prioritization 81

6.1 STEP 11. Identiy Possible Adaptation Options 826.2 STEP 12. Evaluate Alternatives 86

6.3 STEP 13. Establish Priorities 86

6.4 STEP 14. Drat Detailed Plans or Priorities 88

7. Plan Creation and Implementation 897.1 Creating the LRAP 89

7.2 Developing an Implementation Strategy 90

8. Concluding Remarks 1018.1 Lessons rom the LRAP Experience to Date 101

8.2 Looking Forward 109

References 113

AppendixesA. Characteristics o the Pilot Cities 116

B. Hanoi City Typology and Risk Characterization

(Hotspot Assessment) Matrix 121

C. Can Tho Steering Committee and Working Group 126

D. Can Tho Maps 130

E. Methodology or Hazard Mapping as Applied in

Vietnamese Pilot Cities 131F. GIS Data Compatibility and Technology Issues 141

G. Dong Hoi Matrix o Government Plans 143

H. Dong Hoi Project Inormation Sheet: Coastal Cities

Environmental Sanitation Project 144

I. Hanoi: Ranking Adaptation Priorities 146

J. Dong Hoi Proposed Adaptation Measure 148

Templates1. City Typology and Risk Characterization

(Hotspot Assessment) Matrix 152

2. Institutional Mapping 158

3. Matrix o Government Plans 159

4. Project Inormation Sheet 160

5. Proposed Programs Based on Gap Analysis 161

6. Ranking Adaptation Measure Priorities 162

7. Proposed High-Priority Programs 163


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Contents v

8. Communications Strategy 166

9. Stakeholder Mapping 168

BoxesReaders Guide xx

1.1 Global Climate Change Impacts 2

1.2 Adaptation and Mitigation 61.3 Action Plan or Adaptation and Mitigation o Climate Change

or the Agriculture and Rural Development Sector, 200820 13

2.1 A Complement to the LRAP: The Multi-Hazard City Risk Index 27

3.1 Asia and Rising Sea Levels 33

3.2 City Vision and Visioning Exercises 44

4.1 Flood Maps 52

4.2 What Is a Geographic Inormation System? 56

4.3 Data Formats and Processing Options 57

4.4 Spatial Analysis o Vulnerabilities Leads to Identification o

Target Areas in Ningbo 61

5.1 An Approach to Institutional Capacity Assessment 776.1 Some Reerence Guides on Disaster Risk Reduction and

Climate Change Adaptation Measures 83

7.1 LRAP Table o Contents: An Example rom Can Tho 90

7.2 Communications Strategy 97

7.3 Stakeholder Analysis 99

Checklists1 Sample Agenda or First Roundtable 30

2 Establishing a Citys Vulnerability 43

3 Defining the LRAP Team Structure 46

4 Questions to Consider in Forming the Team 465 Inormation to Include in City Baseline Map 51

6 Inormation to Include in City Socioeconomic Map 51

7 Inormation to Include in City Hazard Profile Map 52

8 Inormation to Include in City Future Growth Macromap 53

9 Assessing the City-Scale Macromap 55

10 Considerations in Compiling Target Area Hazard Profile Map 62

11 Inormation to Include in Target Area Future Growth Map 64

12 Inventorying Existing and Planned Measures 74

13 Options to Plug Gaps in Ongoing or Planned Measures 76

14 Institutional and Financial Needs Assessment 79

15 Creating the Final LRAP 91

Figures1.1 Vietnams GHG Emissions Compared to Those o Other Countries 7

1.2 Horizontal and Vertical Coordination 11

2.1 The LRAP Process 19


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viii A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

3.1 The LRAP Team 45

A.1 Location o Pilot Cities 116

A.2 Vietnam: Agro-Ecological Zones by Grid Cells 118

A.3 Changes in Precipitation in Three Pilot Cities 119

A.4 Changes in Temperature in Three Pilot Cities 120

E.1 Estimation o Damage to Buildings, Assets, and Inventories

rom Floods 136

Tables1.1 Vietnams Relative Disaster Frequency 8

3.1 Disaster Risk Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Key Terms 31

3.2 Vulnerability Assessment: Level o Preparedness/Readiness by

Hazard Type and Sector 40

3.3 Vulnerability Assessment: Specific Climate Factors by Sector 42

5.1 Institutional Mapping: Example rom Dong Hoi 69

5.2 Matrix o Government Plans: Example rom Dong Hoi 72

5.3 Project Inormation Sheet 73

6.1 Matrix o Proposed Programs Based on Gap Analysis 857.1 Stakeholder Mapping 100

A.1 Characteristics o Pilot Cities or the Climate-Resilient Cities

Program in Vietnam 117

C.1 Members o the Can Tho Steering Committee on Climate Change 126

E.1 Benefits and Limitations o the Applied Approach 131

E.2 Estimations o Sea Level Rise 137

E.3 Current Variations in Sea Level Heights and Derived Maximum

Height or Computing Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise 139

E.4 Inundation Heights Based on the Sea Level Rise Scenarios 140

F.1 Popular GIS Sotware Packages 142


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i

Foreword

The world is urbanizing rapidly. A little over hal the global population is

urban today. According to the United Nations Human Settlements Programme

(UNHABITAT), by 2050, this proportion will grow to 70 percentand o a

much larger pie, 9 billion people worldwide. This urban growth will predomi-

nantly (90 percent) take place in developing countries. Developing countries

host 70 million new urban residents each year. Cities in the developing world

are already challenged in providing adequate inrastructure and services to

current residents, let alone supporting such large increases in the uture. It is

expected that the global slum population will double to 2 billion by 2030.The trend in increasing natural hazards urther complicates the situation.

The Centre or Research on the Epidemiology o Disasters reports via its

Emergency Events Database (CRED EM-DAT) that, in 2010, 385 natural disas-

ters killed nearly 300,000 people, afected over 217 million others, and caused

$123.9 billion in damages in 131 countries. These economic damages represent

an increase o 160.4 percent compared to 2009. Climate change and shiting

tectonic plates will urther exacerbate the situation. A recent World Bank

study projected that, by 2050, large cities exposed to cyclones and earthquakes

will more than double their population to 1.5 billion, primarily as a result o

population increase. According to a study o 136 port cities around the world

conducted by the Organisation or Economic Co-operation and Development,

assets exposed in these cities to the potential impacts o climate change could

grow rom $3 trillion to $35 trillion by 2070.


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x A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

East Asia is 48 percent urban today and, with 2 million new residents

migrating to cities every month, will become mostly urban by 2013. Urbaniza-

tion is so rapid that built-up areas are projected to increase more rapidly here

than in any other region in the next 20 years. Still, more than hal o the worlds

slum dwellers live in East Asia. These are the people most vulnerable to disas-

ter impacts because they tend to live on environmentally ragile land, rely or

their livelihood on sectors that are especially prone to devastation, and do not

have adequate savings to recover rom disasters. Given that Asia accounted or

more than a third o all reported disasters in 2010, and that natural disasters

have quadrupled in the region during the past 20 yearsthe astest rate o

increase or any region in the worldmanaging urban growth or resilience is

increasingly important.

Greater eforts are clearly needed in disaster risk reduction, including cli-

mate adaptation. Much o this must be done at the local level, where the

impacts o disasters are experienced. For this reason, the World Banks Cli-mate Resilient Cities: A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters pro-

vided guidance to governments in the East Asia region, and beyond, on the

concepts o climate change and disaster risk reduction, how climate change

consequences contribute to urban vulnerabilities, and what is being done by

city governments around the world to actively engage in capacity building and

capital investment programs or building resilient communities.

This workbook is a natural extension o that primer and is based on a pro-

gram o technical assistance provided to three cities in VietnamCan Tho,

Dong Hoi, and Hanoithat undertook the development o local resilienceaction plans (LRAPs). These plans will enable communities to identiy vulner-

abilities to current and uture natural disasters and take specific steps to

reduce those vulnerabilities. Vietnam loses 1.5 percent o its gross domestic

product each year to typhoons, landslides, and floods; it is projected to be hard

hit by increases in sea level, precipitation, and temperatures associated with

climate change. But cities are starting to take steps to reduce their vulnerabil-

ity. Using the inormation at their disposal, they are raming comprehensive

strategies that include inrastructure responses, public awareness initiatives,

and early warning systems. The LRAPs include both structural and nonstruc-

tural measures and have been undertaken in coordination with many agencies

at the city level; they have also been based on a collaborative process with

research communities and consultation with stakeholders.


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Foreword x

This workbook provides standard procedures local o cials can use to

develop LRAPs. While based on learning rom the Vietnam experience, the

guidance provided can be applied by any city at any level o disaster prepared-

ness. The experience o the three pilot cities is the basis or illustrating the

methodology. The pilots represent a broad range o city characteristics in

terms o geography, population size, economic base, administrative structure,

and natural hazardsdemonstrating that the LRAP process is useul to a vari-

ety o cities. Indeed, the methodology has been taken up by cities outside o

Vietnam, in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These cities have adapted

the steps in the workbook to fit their local conditions and priorities.

We encourage other cities to embark on the LRAP process and plan or

managing current and uture disaster risk, keeping in mind that sometimes the

best resilience measures are aimed at overall development. For instance, pro-

viding better housing, access to water and sanitation, improved nutrition and

health care, and diversified sources o income can increase resilience. Simi-larly, clearing the inrastructure deficit and providing greater resources to

operations and maintenance can have exponential benefits.

This workbook orms a core part o the curriculum or the World Bank

Institute e-Learning course on Sae and Resilient Cities. This course helps

cohorts o city practitioners develop their own LRAPs through a guided pro-

cess in identification o risks, measures to mitigate these risks, prioritization,

and implementation plans.

Increased hazard risk does not have to increase damage and losses, pro-

vided that actors contributing to vulnerabilities can be better managed.Actively preparing or disasters and undertaking preventive measures to

reduce impacts can have a big pay-of. Research shows that or every $1 spent

on disaster risk reduction, $7 is saved in response and recovery. International

aid ater the occurrence o disasters represents nearly one-fith o total

humanitarian aid, while the share or prevention is less than 1 percent. We

hope that this workbook, and the course that stems rom it, can help move the

dialogue to reversing this trend.

John Roome Bruno LaporteDirector Director

East Asia Sustainable Development Knowledge and Learning

World Bank World Bank Institute


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xi

Acknowledgments

This workbook is the result o the World Banks Vietnam Climate Resilient

Cities technical assistance project. It was prepared in consultation with the

Vietnam Ministry o Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) and

Minstry o Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). The team would

particularly like to acknowledge MARD Vice Minister Dao Xuan Hoc, Deputy

Director General Nguyen Xuan Dieu at the Directorate o Water Resources

(MARD), and Director Tran Thuc and Deputy Director Nguyen Van Thang at

the Institute o Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (MONRE).

The project was led by Fatima Shah, Special Assistant to the Vice Presidentor Sustainable Development, the World Bank. Fatima Shah and Federica

Ranghieri, Senior Urban Specialist with the World Bank Institute, prepared

this workbook. Background inputs were provided by Hyoung Wang, Urban

Economist at the World Bank, and a number o consultants, including John

Felton, Ravi Sinha, and the Geoville Group.

City-level action plans in Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi, Vietnam, were the

field cases on which the guidance in this workbook is based. The ollowing per-

sons are particularly acknowledged or their pioneering eforts in this regard:

In Can Tho, Nguyen Thanh Son, Chairman o the Peoples Committeeand Head o the Steering Committee on Climate Change (SCCC); Duong

Ba Dien, ormer Director, Department o Environment and Natural

Resources, and Standing Vice Head o SCCC; Pham van Quynh, Director,


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xiv A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

Department o Agriculture, and Vice Head o SCCC; Ky Quang Vinh,

Director, Can Tho Center or Natural Resource and Environment

Monitoring, and Secretary o SCCC; and all the members o the Can Tho

SCCC and its Working Group.

In Dong Hoi, Tran Dinh Dinh, Chairman o the Peoples Committee; andall the members o the Dong Hoi SCCC and its Working Group.

In Hanoi, Nguyen Van Khoi, Vice Chairman o the Peoples Committee;

Pham Van Khanh, Deputy Director, Department o Environment and

Natural Resources, and Head o Climate Change Working Group; Dao

Duc Tam, Deputy Director, Department o Agriculture, and Vice Head o

Climate Change Working Group; and all the members o the Hanoi

SCCC and its Working Group.

Financial support or the development and printing o this workbook is

grateully acknowledged rom the Korean Trust Fund (project on Good Prac-

tices in Urban Environment Management), the Italian Trust Fund on Carbon

Finance and Climate Change, and the Australian Aid Agencys (AusAIDs)

Inrastructure or Growth Trust Fund (project on Knowledge Partnerships)

or supporting World Bank staf time and travel. We are grateul to GFDRRs

Hazard Risk Mitigation Institutional Development (Advocacy and Capacity

Building Program in Viet Nam 20072009) or supporting consultant time and

travel as well as in-country stakeholder workshops.


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Acknowledgments x

About GFDRR

The Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and Recov-

ery (GFDRR) is a partnership o 38 countries and 7

international organization committed to helping disas-

ter-prone developing countries and regions reduce

their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to

climate change. GFDRR promotes technical and finan-cial assistance to high-risk low- and middle-income

countries based on a business model o ex-ante support

to mainstream disaster risk reduction in national devel-

opment strategies and investments, and ex-post disas-

ter assistance or sustainable recovery. As part o its

mandate, GFDRR promotes global knowledge and good

practices, supports initiatives or enhanced global and

regional cooperation, and promotes greater South-

South cooperation in disaster risk reduction.

www.gdrr.org

Supported by the Australian Government, AusAID

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this publication are those o the

authors and not necessarily those o the Australian

Agency or International Development (AusAID).

Funded by the Korean Trust Fund

The Korea-World Bank Trust Fund or Poverty Reduc-

tion and Socio-Economic Development (KTF) is a new

partnership to finance programs and activities

supported by the World Bank. This Trust Fund allows

the recipients o the grants and the Bank to finance

technical assistance work or issues o emerging impor-

tance to support development in East Asia and Pacific

countries and in the region.

Supported by the Italian Trust Fund on Carbon

Finance and Climate Change


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xv

About the Authors

FATIMA SHAH is the Special Assistant to the Vice President or Sustainable

Development, the World Bank. She was previously a Senior Urban Economist

with the World Banks East Asia Region, where her work ocused on urban

development, including urban poverty, land use, disaster risk management,

and inrastructure investments in China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand,

and Vietnam. Prior to that assignment, she was a Private Sector Development

Specialist at the World BankIFC Foreign Investment Advisory Service, where

she advised the governments o Bangladesh, Egypt, Nepal, and Pakistan. She

has been with the World Bank or more than nine years. She holds a B.A. romSmith College, an M.Sc. rom Oxord University, and an M.P.P. rom the

University o Chicago.

FEDERICA RANGHIERI is a Senior Urban Specialist at the World Bank. She

joined the World Bank in 2004 with the Carbon Finance Business Unit, where

she developed the Italian Carbon Fund. Since 2007 she has worked with East

Asia Sustainable Development on climate change, mitigation, and adaptation

policies, and disaster risk management, with a particular ocus on China,

Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. She coordinated the Disaster Risk Manage-

ment and Climate Change Adaptation Program at the urban level at the World

Bank Institute. Beore joining the World Bank, she was an assistant proessor

at the University o Milan, where she taught classes on environmental policies


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xviii A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

and environmental and social communication. She holds a laurea in economic

and social studies rom Bocconi University, Milan, and an M.A. in interna-

tional studies rom American University, Washington, D.C.


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xi

Executive Summary

This workbook is intended to help policy makers in developing countries plan

or a saer uture in urban areas in the ace o natural disasters and the conse-

quences o climate change. It is based on the experiences o three cities in

VietnamCan Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoithat worked with international

and local experts under World Bank supervision to develop local resilience

action plans (LRAPs) in 200910. An LRAP is a detailed planning document

that reflects local concerns and priorities based on the experiences o the past

and projections or the uture. It is not a wish list o projects that may never be

completed because they are too costly or lack political support. Rather, itshould be a realistic document that describes and establishes priorities or

specific steps that can be undertaken in the near term to adapt to both climate-

related and other hazards.

Regardless o their size, location, political orientation, or technical capacity,

other cities can learn rom the experiences o these pilot cities to develop their

own LRAPs. The purpose o this workbook is to adapt the initial experiences

o Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi to benefit the national government and

other communities in Vietnam and beyond. Indeed, the process described in

this workbook was later adopted in the cities o Iloilo, the Philippines; Ningbo,

China; and Yogyakarta, Indonesiaand the concluding chapter o this work-

book draws on some o the lessons learned in these cities. However, the work-

book, while generalizable to other contexts, largely reflects the Vietnamese

experience.


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xx A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

Climate change will have varying impacts around the world in terms o

changing temperatures, precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and an increase

in extreme events. In Vietnam, in particular, increases in the intensity and re-

quency o typhoons and tropical storms are expected to cause increased flood-

ing in the coming years. In addition, rising sea levels likely will expose

low-lying areas in Vietnamincluding much o the coastline and the Mekong

and Red River Deltasto a significant risk o permanent inundation. The three

pilot cities in Vietnam have diverse geographies, sizes, and needsand each is

highly vulnerable to natural disasters and the consequences o climate change.

Hanoi, a large city, is the national capital located on the banks o the Red River.

Can Tho is a medium-size city located in the vast Mekong River Delta. Dong

Readers Guide

This workbook provides a user-riendly, step-by-step ap-

proach or national, provincial, and local governments to

use in meeting the challenges posed by natural disasters

and the potential impacts o climate change. These steps

are meant to build on one another rather than oer dis-

crete outputs at the end o each step. Cities can customize

steps based on their prior planning (to limit duplication)

and capacity; some cities may wish to undertake more rig-

orous assessment in particular steps.

Chapter 1 sets the context in terms o global disaster

trends and expected climate change, beore ocusing on

the specifc risks aced by Vietnam. It oers an overview o

current government policies in Vietnam and describes, in

general terms, how national and local governments can

take proactive measures to make their citizens and com-

munities saer. It summarizes the characteristics o the

three pilot cities and how their experiences are relevant

or other communities in Vietnam and beyond.

Chapter 2 provides an easy-to-understand explana-

tion o a local resilience action plan as a strategic actionplan or short-, medium-, and long-term structural and

nonstructural measures designed to increase a citys resil-

ience. The chapter takes the reader through an overview o

the step-by-step process o risk identifcation and assess-

ment leading toward the creation o the LRAP.

The heart o the workbook is a series o chapters that

detail the specifc phases and steps in the LRAP process.

The frst set o steps, in chapter 3, entail sensitization

raising awareness and generating support or the resil-

ience planning process. An essential aspect o this phase is

raising community awareness o the need or action and

generating broad support or the planning process.

A second crucial phase in the LRAP process is identi-

ying the specifc vulnerabilities the community aces.

This technical analysis, detailed in chapter 4, involves

preparing a series o maps to provide a visual presenta-

tion o the hazards to the citys people, inrastructure,

and economy, now and in the uture. One set o maps will

illustrate vulnerabilities at the citywide level; another will

address uture vulnerabilities at the neighborhood and

community levels, ocusing primarily on those areas that

are most vulnerable. For more technically advanced cit-

ies, the chapter includes inormation on pushing theanalysis to a higher level, taking into account down-

scaled climate projections and layering through geo-

graphic inormation system (GIS) ormats. For smaller


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Executive Summary xx

Hoi is a small city (and a provincial capital) located on the central coast o the

South China Sea.

While national- and city-level policy makers cannot alter the increasing

hazard risks that urban areas will aceincluding those associated with cli-

mate changethey can work with stakeholders to plan a range o measures to

reduce vulnerabilities and the associated level o expected damage and losses

caused by these hazards. Hazards need not translate into disasters i proper

planning measures are taken early on to reduce actors that contribute to vul-

nerability. This workbook provides tools or such planning.

Improving the saety o communities will, at times, involve di cult choices

among competing priorities. Maintaining a ocus on the long term and allocat-

cities with ewer resources, it is possible to hand-draw

maps and transparencies or the layering process. This

theme runs throughout the workbookthe LRAP pro-

cess can be used by any city.

Ater the citys vulnerabilities have been identifed and

analyzed, the next phase, outlined in chapter 5, is to con-

duct an inventory o current or envisioned plans address-

ing those vulnerabilities at the government, private sector,

community, and donor levels. The inventory will provide abasis or assessing the gaps between needs and plans.

This gaps and needs assessment provides the ounda-

tion or the next phase, described in chapter 6, which dis-

cusses processes or raming resilience measures (disaster

risk mitigation, including climate change adaptation) to

deal with vulnerabilities at the city and neighborhood lev-

els that are not addressed in current plans. It also describes

methodologies or evaluating trade-os between identifed

options and in establishing priorities or action.

Chapter 7 briey discusses the process o bringing all

the pieces together into the LRAP, including the actualsteps the city and its partners need to take to make the city

more resilient to climate change and natural disasters. The

chapter highlights the importance o raming an imple-

mentation strategy to ensure that the actions in the LRAP

are sequenced and coordinated, fnanced, monitored, and

implemented with the support o partners and stakehold-

ers, and that channels are established to expand, update,

and refne LRAP contents.

Chapter 8 concludes the workbook with a discussion

o lessons learned rom the LRAP process in the pilot cities

and considerations or scaling up to other communities.

A series oappendixesprovide supporting inorma-tion, and a set o blank templates are included as work-

sheets or other cities embarking on the LRAP process.

The workbook brings to the oreront the interlinkages

between planning or growth and urban expansion

including land use and construction codesin the context

o disaster risk reduction and climate change. It is intended

primarily or the technical acilitators and other members

o the LRAP team who will carry out the day-to-day tasks

involved in creating each communitys LRAP. The work-

book also can be a useul resource or high-level city policy

makers (e.g., the mayors ofce) and national and provin-cial government ofcials. It complements the Sae and

Resilient Cities e-Learning course recently launched by the

World Bank Institute and similar training initiatives.


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xxii A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

ing public expenditures or projects intended to protect the community in the

uture will require strong political leadership and community awareness. For

that reason, one o the main themes o this workbook is that the planning pro-

cess needs consistent and dedicated support rom senior o cials at all levels

o government. Similarly, the process will be truly efective only i afected

interest groups and community organizations understand the need or disas-

ter and climate resilience planning and are invited to participate in the process.

Decisions made with broad input rom the community will be more popular

than those imposed rom the topand probably will be better decisions because

they benefit rom the local knowledge o those most likely to be afected.

The potential impacts o natural disasters and climate change should be

considered in nearly every aspect o urban planning and development. Plans

that do not take disaster and climate considerations into account may not be

sustainable over the long run; a prime example would be encouraging inten-

sive housing or business development in low-lying coastal areas that likely willbe afected by rising sea levels. The LRAP process can support, and should be

integrated into, a citys ongoing planning and its vision or the uture. At the

time the LRAPs were undertaken in Vietnam, or instance, every city was

under a national mandate to revise its master plan in the coming year and was

thus already thinking about uture needsor better housing and transporta-

tion, or example. The LRAPs do not replace such plans but, instead, provide a

vehicle or mainstreaming disaster risk mitigation into these plans. As a result,

engaging in the LRAP process can help cities comply with existing mandates.

Other cities may not be in the process o updating their master plans but mayhave recently experienced a disaster that may provide the impetus or main-

streaming disaster risk reduction into existing plans. Still others may have

motivations such as an upcoming election or exposition, a new study exposing

the threats aced by the city, or a new strategy to promote increased invest-

ment. Whatever the impetus, developing the LRAP quickly to ride the momen-

tum created will increase its chances o implementation.

Once a city has decided to embark on this process, selection o a dedicated

team to oversee and carry out LRAP development is a crucial early step. Most

o the detailed work will be done by technical experts, but the LRAP team

should include o cials with the authority to make decisions and ensure that

they are implemented. Also important will be gaining early support rom city

leaders and stakeholders, including community groups whose interests will be

afected by decisions made during the process.


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Executive Summary xxi

Ater the city has determined its overall vulnerabilities and made the com-

mitment to developing its LRAP, the next task is to prepare a series o maps

that provide a visual representation o the hazards to the citys people, inra-

structure, and economy. One set o maps will cover the entire city; others will

detail past and uture hazards to specific target areas (neighborhoods in flood

zones, or example). With these maps in hand, the LRAP team will then evalu-

ate alternatives or measures to reduce the vulnerabilities that have been iden-

tified and establish priorities among them.

Many steps in the LRAP process will require choices among competing pri-

orities. Some o these choices will be di cult and sometimes contentious. No

city can aford to do everything it wants to do all at once. Priorities must be set,

and trade-ofs will have to be made. Again, it is important to consult a wide

variety o stakeholders to build support or the decisions beore they are made.

The technical rationale or setting priorities is only one driving actor or deci-

sion making; others are political, social, economic, environmental, or financial.Once the LRAP is complete, an implementation strategy must be defined.

The city needs to create a schedule or what actions will be taken, how they

need to be sequenced, who will be responsible or their implementation, how

they will be resourced, and how their progress will be measured. The city will

thus be positioned or substantial but sustainable change. As it gradually

increases its resilience, its eforts will leverage on one another, generating pos-

itive progress toward saer development.


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xx

Abbreviations

CCFSC Central Committee or Flood and Storm Control (Vietnam)

CCWG Climate Change Working Group

DEM digital elevation model

GDP gross domestic product

GFDRR Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and Recovery

GHG greenhouse gas

GIS geographic inormation system

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LRAP local resilience action plan

MARD Ministry o Agriculture and Rural Development (Vietnam)

MONRE Ministry o Natural Resources and Environment (Vietnam)NGO nongovernmental organization

NTP-RCC National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (Vietnam)

SCCC Steering Committee on Climate Change

SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

UN United Nations


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Chapter 1

Introduction and Context

Historically, most cities have emerged at locations with good accessibility (e.g.,

ports or trading routes) or with avorable natural endowments such as an

adjacent river, a coastal location, or ertile soils. These geographic settings are

oten associated with an increased probability o hazard eventsfloods,

cyclones, storm surges, and so on. Low elevation coastal zones, in act, cover

2 percent o the worlds land area but contain 10 percent o global population

and 13 percent o the worlds urban population (Lall and Deichmann 2009).

Many cities also end up being located on or near seismic ault lines as these

areas tend to be particularly ertile. It is estimated that 9 percent o the globalpopulation lives within 100 kilometers o a historically active volcano, and the

highest concentrations o volcanoes are in Southeast Asia (primarily Indone-

sia and the Philippines) and Central America (Lall and Deichmann 2009).

An area can be hazard-prone without having high exposure per seor

instance, uninhabited areas may be hazard-prone without having much expo-

sure at all. In contrast, exposure in cities tends to be higher than in less inhab-

ited areas due to the concentrations o people, built-up areas, inrastructure,

and productive assets. While not all hazards result in disastrous consequences,

hazard occurrences maydepending on the magnitude or severity o the haz-

ard as well as the impacts generated (sometimes due to persisting vulnerabili-

ties that have not been addressed)become disasters. Identiying and

managing actors exacerbating vulnerabilities at the city level thus becomes

crucial.


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2 A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters

Climate change is expected to increase the requency and severity o some

hazards, typically hydrometerological hazards including extreme weather,

and to introduce new incremental impacts that are less obvious and immedi-

ate, such as gradual increases in temperature and gradual changes in rainall

patterns (box 1.1). Cities with high exposure, such as those in low-elevation

coastal zones or in hot climates, may be afected by rising sea levels and storm

surges, and by longer and more severe heat waves. These direct climate pres-

sures will in turn have a range o short- and long-term consequencesinclud-

ing on human health, physical assets, economic activities, and social

systemsdepending on how well prepared a city is and how it responds.

In addition to risks that can be managed within the city boundaries, climate

change will also afect cities through events that occur outside these boundar-

Box 1.1 Global Climate Change Impacts

Sea level rise is caused by the thermal expansion o

seawater, storm surges, and rising and alling o land in

coastal regions. Higher temperatures are expected to

urther raise sea level by expanding ocean water, melt-

ing mountain glaciers and small ice caps, and causing

portions o Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets to

melt. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) predicts that sea levels will rise by 0.090.88

meters by 2100 as compared to 1990.

Temperatures have risen globally by 0.62C in the

past century. The highest temperature increases were in

191045 and ater 1975. The year 2010 was the hottest

year on record since 1880, and tied with record global

temperatures in 2005 (NOAA 2011). According to pro-

jections by the IPCC, the average global air tempera-

ture will be 1.45.8C higher by 2100 relative to 1990.

Precipitation has generally increased over land north

o 30N rom 1900 to 2005, but has mostly declinedover the tropics since the 1970s. Globally, there has

been no statistically signifcant overall trend in pre-

cipitation over the past century, although trends have

varied widely by region and over time. There has been

an increase in the number o heavy precipitation

events over many areas during the past century, as

well as an increase since the 1970s in the prevalence

o droughtsespecially in the tropics and subtropics.

Extreme events such as heat waves, heavy rainall,

storms, and coastal ooding are expected to increasein requency due to large-scale climate change. It is

also possible that this large change could initiate non-

linear climate responses leading to even more extreme

and rapid (on the time-scale o decades) climate

change, including the collapse o the ocean conveyor

belt circulation, the collapse o major ice sheets, or

the release o large amounts o methane in high lati-

tudes leading to urther global warming. Although

these catastrophic events are much more uncertain

than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse

gases, their potential impacts are great and thereoreshould be included in any risk assessment o the

impacts o climate change.

Sources: IPCC 2007; NOAA 2011.


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events o significant impacts and is generally based on managing current risk

based on historical assessments. Moreover, not all disasters are climate related;

some may be related to weather and others to seismic risks.

A combined disaster risk managementclimate change adaptation

approach would thus involve1

understanding existing vulnerabilities to both disasters and climate

hazards;

working with vulnerable groups to understand and prioritize their

concerns;

identiying uture potential risks likely to be amplified by climate change

as well as new risks that could emerge;

analyzing less visible climate changes that may not lead to disasters per

se but can nonetheless have significant cumulative impacts, such asseasonal shits and other gradual incremental changes; and

ensuring that planning and decision making incorporate strategies or

dealing with disasters and climate hazards today and in the uture.

Cities are growing quickly, especially in East Asia where built-up areas are

projected to increase more rapidly than in any other region in the next 20 years.

The locations and dense construction patterns o cities oten place their popu-

lations and assets at greater risk or natural disasters, including those expected

to worsen with climate change. Yet cities in developing countries are also con-ronted with very real development challenges in terms o alleviating poverty

and providing access to basic services. Tackling disaster and climate risks

should not be seen as a competing agenda but one that should be mainstreamed

into existing development goalsrecognizing that without such mainstream-

ing, the achievement o these goals may themselves be threatened. This is also

one o the main messages rom the World Development Report on Development

and Climate Change:

A quarter o the population o developing countries still lives on less than $1.25 a

day. One billion people lack clean drinking water; 1.6 billion, electricity; and3 billion, adequate sanitation. A quarter o all developing-country children are

malnourished. Addressing these needs must remain the priorities both o devel-

oping countries and o development aidrecognizing that climate change can

hamper the achievement o these goals (World Bank 2009b, p. viii).


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1. Introduction and Context

Still, many local governments are reluctant or unaware o how to mainstream

disaster and climate concerns in their political and development agenda, and

how to address them in their investment plans and their citywide strategic

thinking. And, indeed, there are some measures that have to be taken over and

beyond simple mainstreaming. Cities must be proactive in reducing risk and

must act quickly because the development trajectory o cities that are expanding

will be hard to reverse later. Proactive adaptationex ante measures to reduce

potential impacts o climate changeis part o broader disaster risk reduction

(box 1.2). Developing a local resilience action plan (LRAP), as described in this

workbook, is an important proactive adaptation measure in this regard.

Actions in terms o land use, building codes, and investment in large-scale

inrastructure must be undertaken with an eye toward the uture. This is as

true o adaptation as it is o climate mitigationdelays in setting in motion

optimal development paths in terms o densities and low-carbon choices will

make mitigation exponentially expensive and sometimes altogether inacces-sible. Further, the cobenefits o green action oten more than cover the costs

reducing pollution has a direct impact on health, quality o living, and

attraction o private investment (World Bank 2010a). This is not always the

case, however, and cash-strapped city governments in developing countries

sometimes do need to choose between adaptation and climate mitigation.

Where possible, climate mitigation components can be built into the identified

adaptation measures in an LRAP to reduce contributions to global greenhouse

gas (GHG) emissions. An explicit low-carbon growth path is not always the

primary objective or many developing countries. Vietnam, or instance, has arelatively low share o overall global emissions (figure 1.1), and yet its exposure

to hazards is high. Many cities thereore adopt a cobenefits approach to GHG

reduction rather than an explicit climate mitigation ocus.

Understanding that resilient and/or low-carbon growth is a choice that cit-

ies aceand that it is within their reachis the starting point or action. Some

cities have been pioneers in taking on this challenge; some have developed

LRAPs. Among these latter are Ningbo, China; Yogyakarta, Indonesia; Iloilo,

the Philippines; and Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi, Vietnam. The objective o

this workbook is to draw out lessons rom these cities experiences to ormu-

late a roadmap or other cities to ollow. This workbook contains a step-by-

step guide to developing an LRAP; since the process was first developed in

Vietnam, many o the examples are rom this country. It is thus only appropri-

ate that we begin with a close look at Vietnams hazard profile.


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Box 1.2 Adaptation and Mitigation

In the context o climate change, adaptation reers to

taking steps to deal with climate change as a act o lie

regardless o any attempts that are made to slow climate

change in the frst place (climate mitigation).

Reactive adaptation reers to responding to climate

impacts ater they occur. Reactive adaptation is part o

overall disaster risk response and recovery, as shown below.

Proactive adaptation reers to structural and non-

structural measures to reduce potential impacts o climate

changebefore they occur. Examples o structural measures

include building stronger sea walls in low-lying areas,

installing tsunami warning systems, and moving electrical

lines or other vital public services away rom areas prone to

damage. Examples o nonstructural measures include

strengthening and enorcing guidelines on land develop-ment and new settlements, capacity building or key gov-

ernment agencies, establishing evacuation routes and

practicing drills, and conducting studies to better anticipate

and plan or climate impacts. At the provincial and city lev-

els, developing a local resilience action planas described

in this workbookis an important nonstructural proactive

adaptation measure. Proactive adaptation is part odisas-

ter risk reduction and mitigation (which also covers risks

related to nonclimatic hazards such as seismic risks).

While disaster risk mitigation reers to actions that

reduce the severity o uture disasters, climate changemitigation reers to slowing the process o climate change

by lowering the levels o greenhouse gases (such as carbon

dioxide) in the atmosphere. These gases, emitted by the

burning o ossil uels in addition to natural processes, trap

heat in the upper atmosphereheat that is returned to the

Earths surace in the so-called greenhouse eect.

Examples o climate mitigation include reducing the

amount o energy spent on lighting and temperature con-

trol o buildings, improving the uel efciency o automo-

biles, and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions o

electrical power generating plants.

For many developing countries, the current priority is

adaptation to the eects o climate change rather than

climate mitigation to reduce the countrys contributions to

climate change. Still, opportunities or climate mitigation

in the context o adaptation can be considered. For

instance, when building a raised walkway or a bridge toappropriate standards, reective pavements can reduce

the amount o heat absorbed. Energy-efcient street light-

ing can be considered when new roads are built to divert

trafc away rom ood-prone areas. Such measures are

oten no cost or low cost. They can actually be cheaper

than the alternatives in terms o operation and mainte-

nance over the lie o the investment, even i the initial

fxed cost is marginally greater (e.g., energy-saving light

bulbs). Dual-response measures, such as urban orestry or

gardens on top o buildings (green roos) serve both a

climate adaptation purpose (absorbing water runo) anda climate mitigation purpose (absorbing carbon dioxide)

without any changes in design.

Post disasterEmergency response

and recovery

Reactive adaptation:Responding to climate

impacts ater they occur

Proactive adaptation: Structural and nonstructural measures to reduce potential impacts o climatechange beore they occur

Disaster risk reduction measures aim to reduce exposure to hazards by lessening the vulnerability opeople and property, managing land use and the environment in a sustainable manner, and improvingcontingency planning and preparedness measures or adverse events.

Risk identifcation Risk reductionInstitutional

strengtheningRisk transer


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1.1 Vietnams Hazard Profile

Vietnam has a population o nearly 90 million, which makes it the third largest

country in Southeast Asia and the 13th largest (by population) in the world. A

little less than 30 percent o the population lives in urban areas, but the urban

population is growing rapidly at a rate o 3.4 percent per year. Many o the

countrys cities are located along Vietnams long coastline, rivers, and low-lying

areas, rendering them particularly susceptible to hydrometeorological disas-

ters now and into the uture. Because o its topography, Vietnam is susceptible

to several types o natural disasters (table 1.1). Disaster risk reduction and

climate adaptation clearly must be mainstreamed into Vietnams urban strat-

egy.

From 1990 to 2009, Vietnam sufered an average annual loss o 457 people

and an estimated annual economic loss equivalent to 1.3 percent o gross

domestic product (GDP) as measured by purchasing power parity, or $3.6 bil-

lion in 2010 GDP, due to natural disasters (UNDP 2011). Over the last decade,

there has also been a clear rising trend in annual economic losses (UNDP

Figure 1.1 Vietnams GHG Emissions Compared to Those of OtherCountries

Sources: EIA 2006; World Bank 2008.

2.5%Global share o emissions

49.2%

United States

0.3 1.3 0.19 0.23 1.15 0.1620.165

population (billions)

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

high incomemiddle incomelow income

Canada

Russian Federation

Germany

JapanUnited Kingdom

South AricaFrance

Iran

China

Mexico

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Brazil

IndonesiaIndia

Vietnam

Peru

Pakistan

NigeriaSudan

Bangladesh

TanzaniaEthiopia

48.3%

Countries

percent


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2011). Floods, typhoons, and inundation are the most requent disasters, with

floods and storms responsible or 91 percent o afected persons and ranking

highest in terms o economic damage. Because o the high concentration opopulation along the coastline and in low-lying deltas, particularly o the

Mekong and Red Rivers, such hazards can cause loss o lie and heavy damage

to assets, inrastructure, and economic activity (GFDRR 2011).

Vietnam experiences an average o six to eight typhoons or tropical storms

o varying intensity each year, with the northern and central coastal regions

being hardest hit in the early months o the storm season. Communities along

the coast are directly afected, as are communities in upland areas which can

experience flash floods resulting rom the heavy rains o typhoons. River plain

flooding is extensive and prolonged throughout the wet season in the largedeltas. Because most o Vietnams 2,360 rivers are short and steep, heavy rain-

all in their basins produces intense even i short duration floods.

Ater typhoons and floods, drought is responsible or the greatest amount

o damage to livelihoods and the economy. Drought is an annual phenomenon

in Vietnam, usually occurring rom December to April.2 In recent years,

drought periods have started earlier and are lasting longer. In 2010, an unprec-

edented drought afected the majority o provinces in the country, resulting in

severe pressure on agricultural output and the provision o electricity.

Climate change is likely to increase the requency and intensity o the

hydrometeorological disasters that Vietnam aces. In 2007, an assessment by

the World Bank listed Vietnam as one o the five countries in the world poten-

tially most afected by climate change.3 According to one estimate, a 1 meter

rise in sea level would afect 39 o the 64 provinces in six o Vietnams eight

Table 1.1 Vietnams Relative Disaster Frequency

High Medium Low

Flood

Typhoon

Inundation

Hail rain/tornado

Drought

Landslide

Flash ood

Fire

Earthquake

Frost

Damaging cold

Deorestation

Source: GFDRR 2011, p. 199.


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economic regions. About 20 percent o the communes could be wholly or par-

tially inundated, with the Mekong River Delta being the most seriously

afected area. Also according to this estimate, a 1 meter rise in sea level would

afect approximately 5 percent o Vietnams land area, 11 percent o the popu-

lation, 10 percent o total GDP, and 7 percent o agricultural inputs (Dasgupta

et al. 2007).

Many o Vietnams cities will be increasingly afected by natural disasters.

This will pose a danger to the country not only because o the large concentra-

tions o people in those urban areas but also because cities are a critical ele-

ment o Vietnams economic growth and poverty reduction strategy. Even at

todays relatively low level o urbanization (30 percent, according to the 2009

census), the countrys cities are the major contributors to its GDP (70 percent,

according to a 2006 World Bank study).4 According to the United Nations

Human Settlements Programme (UNHABITAT), 77 percent o the popula-

tion growth in the 200009 decade occurred in cities, and approximately1 million people are added to the urban areas every year. Forecasts are that

Vietnams urban population will exceed the rural population by 2040.

1.2 National Policy and Institutional Environment

Vietnam has a long history o preparedness or, and active response to, natural

disasters. The extensive system o dikes and sea walls is evidence that citizens

and leaders over the centuries have recognized the countrys vulnerability to

the consequences o typhoons and other tropical storms.

1.2.1 National Policy Framework

The National Strategy or Natural Disaster Prevention, Response, and Mitiga-

tion to 2020 and the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change

(NTP-RCC) contain Vietnams overarching policies and programs on disaster

risk management in the context o climate change and specific climate change

measures. These are complemented by other dedicated ordinances and laws.

The National Assembly has adopted numerous pieces o legislation related to

natural disasters, notably the Law on Water Resources (1998), the Ordinanceon Flood and Storm Control (1993), the Law on Dikes (2006), and the Environ-

ment Protection Law (1998).

Even so, according to an analysis by the Global Facility or Disaster Reduc-

tion and Recovery,


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much o the legislation lacks clear institutional arrangements or enorcement

and the current organizational structures, mandates, annual budget earmarks

and working agenda ocus largely on disaster response rather than prevention.

There is no proessional and specialized cadre o staf who ocus on disaster

management. Instead, it is managed in an as-needed basis, part-time, by staf o

the agriculture and rural development sector, mainly under the irrigation and

dyke management sub-sectors (GFDRR 2009, p. 110).

1.2.2 National Institutional Framework

The Ministry o Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) has been

designated the lead agency or climate change coordination in Vietnam, while

the Ministry o Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) maintains overall

responsibility or natural disaster mitigation and response. In addition, the

Ministry o Construction has responsibility or the countrys drainage systems

and major public works, the Ministry o Planning and Investment is respon-

sible or land use and master planning, and the Ministry o Science andTechnology is involved in climate orecasts.

The Central Committee or Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC), chaired by

the minister o MARD, coordinates disaster risk management activities in

Vietnam. Committee members include representatives rom MONRE and the

Ministries o Planning and Investment, Finance, Fisheries, Transportation,

Science and Technology, Construction, Health, Industry, Labor and Social

Afairs, Telecommunications, and Foreign Afairs; the Vietnam Red Cross,

Vietnam TV, Voice o Vietnam, the Department o Dikes Management and

Flood Control, and the National Hydrology and Meteorology Center are alsorepresented (figure 1.2).

MARD on Disaster Risk Management

MARD is coordinating the National Strategy or Natural Disaster Prevention,

Response, and Mitigation to 2020 which was approved by the government in

November 2007. The latter ollowed the Strategy and Action Plan or flood

mitigation which had been adopted in 1994.5 Ater the approval o the National

Strategy, provinces and cities have to make their own local strategic action

plans based on main directories defined by the CCFSC.

The National Strategy ocuses on floods, storms, and drought. In addition to

setting policy or disaster response, it provides long-term strategic orienta-

tions. The strategy includes consolidation o organizational structures, com-

munity awareness raising, orestation and protection o upstream orests,


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1. Introduction and Context 1

investments in science and technology or disaster risk management, struc-

tural measures, and programs on strengthening warning systems and upgrad-

ing orecast capacities. All 64 provinces and cities in Vietnam are tasked with

developing action plans to implement the National Strategy.

MARD and the CCFSC preside over implementation o the National Strat-

egy. Specific implementation responsibilities have been assigned to ministries,

sectors, and local entities. The Ministry o Planning and Investment takes the

lead and works in collaboration with the Ministry o Finance, MARD, the

CCFSC, the National Committee or Search and Rescue, and other relevant

ministries and sectors to provide annual investment resources in accordancewith the laws to efectively implement the Strategy. MARD is in charge o

inspection and assessment o implementation by ministries, sectors, and local

entities.

Figure 1.2 Horizontal and Vertical Coordination

Source: Adapted rom GFDRR 2009.

MONRE

Commune committees

Representatives romthese ministries:

Planning Finance Fisheries Transport Science

Construction Health Industry Telecommunications Etc.

Provincial committees

District committees

Central Steering Committee or Flood and Storm Control

Chair: MARD

Vice chair: Ministry o Deense


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MONRE on Climate Change

The NTP-RCC, which was approved by Decision 158 in December 2008,

defines a set o actions at the central, provincial, district, and commune levels

in three phases: Phase 1 (200910), start-up; Phase 2 (201115), implementa-

tion; and Phase 3 (ater 2015), development. The targets under Phase 1 are

complete climate change scenarios, ocusing in particular on sea level rise;

understanding the current situation and trends o climate change parameters;

and implementing pilot projects to assess climate change impacts. The

NTP-RCC provides a ramework or ministries, sectors, and provinces to

develop their own action plans, primarily in response to rising sea levels.

At the sector and provincial levels, climate change responses are still in pro-

cess o being addressed systematically. MARD has developed an action plan

or adaptation and mitigation to climate change, with specific initiatives

beyond ongoing disaster risk reduction measures, reflecting the strong con-

nections and linkages between disaster risk management and climate changeadaptation and the di culty o treating them separately (box 1.3).

Ministry o Construction on Spatial Planning

The Ministry o Construction is a key player in urban planning in terms o

providing guidelines and regulations related to building codes and master

planning. A sustainable urban development component, sponsored by the

Danish Cooperation and Aid Agency (DANIDA), has assisted the Ministry o

Construction in the preparation o a handbook on urban planning and design

with reerence to climate change mitigation and adaptation considerations.

In Vietnam, the Ministry o Planning and Investment is responsible or the

socioeconomic development plan, the Ministry o Construction is responsible

or spatial plans (also called construction or master plans), and line ministries

are responsible or sector development plans. In theory, spatial plans are sup-

posed to ollow socioeconomic plans and sector plans; however, in practice the

plans do not always converge.

Spatial plans are prepared at our levels o detail: orientation plans (national

policy), regional plans (introduced in 2005), master plans (at the province or

city level), and detailed area plans (ward, industrial zone, or project level).

Master plans are required to include long- and medium-term direction or

physical development, the orm o the urban space, and inrastructure net-

works and acilities. They also cover the characteristics o urban areas, popu-

lation size, land use, resettlement, redevelopment, conservation, and zoning.


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1. Introduction and Context 1

In 2009, the Adjustment o the Orientation Master Plan or Urban Develop-

ment to 2025 and Vision to 2050 were approved. In this new ramework, a

step-by-step approach to urban planning is advocated. In the first phase until

2015, to guarantee economic growth, the priority is to develop key economic

zones in large urban areas, with Hanoi, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City as the

urban hubs in the three Northern, Central, and Southern growth poles. Two

other phases, or 201625 and 202650, ollow.

Another significant reorm was introduced through the new Law o Urban

Planning (June 2009), which ocuses on the preparation, appraisal, approval,

and adjustment o urban planning. Under this law, the Ministry o Construc-

tion, in coordination with relevant parties, is responsible or ensuring that

disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation are mainstreamed into urban

plans, as an essential step toward enhancing Vietnams resilience.

Box 1.3 Action Plan for Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change for the Agriculture

and Rural Development Sector, 200820

The Action Plan Framework or Adaptation and Mitigation

o Climate Change or the Agriculture and Rural Develop-

ment Sector or 200820 was endorsed by the Ministry

with Decision 2730 dated September 30, 2008. Its main

objective is to enhance capability o mitigation and adap-

tation to climate change to minimize its adverse impacts

and ensure sustainable development o the agriculture

and rural development sector in the context o climate

change. It ocuses on

ensuring the stability and saety o residents in cities,

dierent zones and regions, especially the deltas o the

Cuu Long and Red Rivers, and the central and moun-

tainous areas;

ensuring stable agricultural production and ood secu-

rity or an area o 3.8 million hectares with two sea-

sonal rice crops; and

ensuring the saety o dike and inrastructure systems

to meet requirements or disaster prevention and miti-

gation.

The plans main tasks are awareness raising on climate

change impacts and adaptation activities in the agriculture

and rural sector, building a scientifc oundation, enhancing

research and studies in the feld, developing training, pro-

moting international cooperation, and developing a policy

system to integrate climate change in sectoral development

programs. Some priority activities are identifed here, such

as capacity strengthening o dedicated departments within

the ministry (e.g., the steering committee or climate change

adaptation and mitigation), development o national stan-

dards and national technical procedures in planning and

designing in the context o climate change, and carrying out

scientifc research programs or agricultural and rural inra-

structure. All the activities are meant to be coordinated byMARD but need mobilization rom all other relevant minis-

tries, sectors, research institutes, and local authorities. Local

authorities are identifed as one o the agencies to ormu-

late and implement mitigation and adaptation projects to

climate change. The action plan lists a set o measures, with-

out providing implementation details.


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Ministry o Planning and Investment: Funding Implementation

The Ministry o Planning and Investment is an agency o the government that

manages financial planning and investment, including the provision o general

advice on strategies; national socioeconomic development planning; policies

or general economic management and or some specific areas such as domes-

tic and oreign investment, industrial parks, and export processing zones;

o cial development assistance sources; and business registration. The minis-

try is also responsible or the development o the five-year socioeconomic plan

that leads the development and growth o the country. Environmental protec-

tion is one o our pillars o the 200610 plan and o the 201115 plan.

1.3 Opportunities for Coordination

The government has an opportunity or institutional coordination across

ministries at the national level. In October 2009, MARD and MONRE jointlyheld the first National Forum on Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change

Adaptation. The high-level orum provided a unique opportunity or minis-

tries, departments, provinces, scientific institutions, diplomatic bodies,

donors, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to share ideas. As stated

by Prime Minister Mr. Hoang Trung Hai, This national orum will be a good

starting point to promote the establishment o a recurring platorm or inor-

mation sharing and institutional development, and will contribute to the efec-

tive implementation o natural disaster prevention, response and mitigation

(CCFSC 2009).With policy rameworks already in place and institutional coordination

moving in the right direction, targeted toolssuch as this workbookto

advance implementation at the local level will be well positioned at this point

in time. Equally important will be the action experiences rom the pilot cit-

iesCan Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoithat implemented the methodology in

this workbook (appendix A).

Recognizing that proactive planning is necessary, all three o these cities

made commitments under the World Bank Climate Resilient Cities program

in Vietnam to develop an LRAP, through the ormation o a steering commit-

tee (policy level) and working group (technical level) at the city level. The

World Bank team provided technical assistance to acilitate the process, but

the LRAP is a locally owned product. It is the beginning, rather than the end,

o a process toward becoming disaster and climate resilient. The LRAP repre-


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1

Chapter 2

Demystifying the Local ResilienceAction Plan

A local resilience action plan is a planning document to help a city government

improve its resilience to the potential efects o climate change and natural

disasters as part o its broader uture growth and development objectives. It

reflects analysis o risks acing the city and various options to mitigate these

risks, and results in a strategic set o short- (less than one year), medium- (one

to three years), and long-term (more than three years) structural and nonstruc-

tural measures designed to increase the citys resilience. For some cities,

having a stand-alone LRAP can be an important way o articulating the overall

goals in reducing vulnerabilities and in tracking progress. For other cities,

having a separate plan will detract rom the ability to mainstream it into

ongoing urban master plan updates or sectoral strategies; in these instances, it

is more important to have pieces o the analysis that can be ed into other

ongoing planning documents. Indeed, while some cities have preerred to

have a stand-alone LRAP (e.g., Can Tho), others have chosen to produce

outputs that can eed into other planning documents (e.g., Iloilo).

While the LRAP outlines a set o discrete activities, the process o ormu-

lating the action plan involves sensitization to the need or mainstreaming

disaster risk reduction into broader city planning and management opera-

tions on a day-to-day basis. A resilient city is one whose government and

people understand the hazards aced, manage growth while systematically


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addressing disaster risks, and adapt to the local impacts o climate change.

The LRAP also provides space or recognizing the cobenefits approachin

other words, are there developmental priorities that also reduce risk, or vice

versa? These activities will likely receive more support or implementation.

Similarly, the LRAP also allows cities to identiy dual-purpose activities that

reduce disaster risk and mitigate against uture climate changeor example,

rootop gardens that absorb carbon but also absorb excess rainall. Some cit-

ies, such as Yogyakarta, have adopted more o a green ocus in their LRAPs

than have others.

An LRAP makes the case that building resilience is proactive, not reactive,

and thereore is a critical element to be integrated into master planning and

urban development strategies. It is important to remember that an LRAP, like

any urban plan, is not a static document. Rather, it is part o a series o activi-

ties that, over time, reduces a citys vulnerabilities to natural disasters and

thereby makes its citizens, businesses, and inrastructure saer. As experienceswith implementation take root, results should be evaluated and ed back into

an updated LRAP.

While the ollowing provides standard guidelines or developing an LRAP,

this process can be customized or diferent city contexts and priorities. Some

cities may have better historical hazard data and downscaled climate projec-

tions than others; similarly, some may have better capacity or modeling uture

risk. The LRAP enables a city to start at any point and build rom there. There

are also diferences in approaches. In some cities, like Hanoi, a top-down

approach is encouraged with respect to planning; in others, such as Yogya-karta, the process is inherently community-driven. Even though cities may

have diferent starting points, use diferent processes or developing LRAPs,

identiy diferent priorities, and mainstream the necessary actions in diferent

ways, the end goal remains the same: to build more resilient cities.

2.1 Steps in Local Resilience Action Planning

A city develops its LRAP by taking several steps, each o which requires the

involvement o multiple sectors o the community. Broadly, the steps can be

grouped into the ollowing categories or phases o action:

Sensitization

Technical analysis

Stocktaking and needs assessment


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2. Demystifying the Local Resilience Action Plan 1

Option identification and program prioritization

Plan creation.

This last then eeds into implementation and evaluationand eedback to the

dynamic regeneration o the LRAP. Figure 2.1 provides an overview o the

process and steps, which are described below.

Figure 2.1 The LRAP Process

SENSITIZATION

1. Conduct qualitative vulnerability sel-assessment

2. Establish links to city vision and strategy

3. Establish an LRAP team

TECHNICAL

ANALYSIS

4. Conduct city-scale spatial analysis

5. Identiy target areas

6. Conduct spatial analysis o each target area

7. Identiy specifc vulnerabilities

STOCKTAKING

AND NEEDS

ASSESSMENT

8. Perorm institutional mapping

9. Inventory other partners

10. Assess gaps

OPTION

IDENTIFICATION

AND PROGRAM

PRIORITIZATION

11. Identiy possible adaptation options

12. Evaluate alternatives

13. Establish priorities14. Drat detailed plans or priorities

Pull together the LRAP

IMPLEMENTATION

STRATEGY

IMPLEMENTATION

EVALUATION AND

FEEDBACK

Source: Authors.


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2.1.1 Sensitization

The starting point or the LRAP process is understanding the needs and

viewpoints o diferent groups with vested interests in how the city improves

its resilience. This includes government o cials rom ministries such as

environment, agriculture, construction, and planning. It is also important to

consult with those who may not think o themselves as having an interest or

involvement in the question o planning or climate change and natural disas-

ters. Examples could be o cials in a sector such as education, health, or trans-

portation who might believe that climate change does not directly afect what

they do. Because all sectors o a city ultimately are afected by climate change

and natural disasters, it is important that their awareness be raised and that

they be involved in the vulnerability assessment and planning process.

STEP 1. Conduct Qualitative Vulnerability Sel-Assessment

As a first step to sensitization o the importance o, and links between, disaster

risk management, climate change adaptation, and city management unctions,

representatives o the various local government departments should come

together at a roundtable meeting. At this session, a consolidated qualitative

vulnerability sel-assessment that looks at city-level characteristics should be

completed. Among the characteristics to consider are geography, population,

administrative structure, public revenue base, institutional capacity on disas-

ter risk management and climate change adaptation, built environment,

economic base, and exposure to natural hazards and climate change.

At this stage o the process, the roundtable should discuss and be aware ohotspotsthe areas o a city that are particularly vulnerable to natural disas-

ters. Examples might include high-density neighborhoods, industrial zones,

or vital roadways located in the floodplain o a major river subject to requent

flooding. The term hotspot does not apply just to geographic areas. It also

can reer to particular communities or groups o people, such as the poor or

elderly; entire sectors o the economy, such as fisheries or tourism; or inra-

structure networks, such as drainage systems. Participants may also decide

that the entire city is a hotspotthis may be the case because o the lack o a

comprehensive disaster response system or dated urban planning documents.

Even or advanced cities, going through this process sometimes uncovers

interlinkages between issues that may otherwise have been overlooked. Thus,

even when cities are considered to be well versed in the basic qualitative vul-

nerability assessment process, this quick exercise can be well worthwhile.


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2. Demystifying the Local Resilience Action Plan 2

STEP 2. Establish Links to City Vision and Strategy

The LRAP process should complement the citys vision and goals or the

uture. For example, i the city has a goal o reducing poverty by 5 percent,

ensuring economic growth by over 10 percent per year, or increasing indus-

trial production by 25 percent by a certain date, that goal should be incorpo-

rated into the LRAP. I the citys poor live in neighborhoods prone to flooding,

how can the city plan to make these neighborhoods saer or move the people

to other, saer neighborhoods while providing better jobs and services that

will lit these people out o poverty? I the city wants to attract industry, how

can it make sure that new actories, and their supply chains, will not be

damaged by floods or storms? Disaster risk management is not a parallel activ-

ity to, but rather an integral part o, the citys development vision, and requires

adequate attention and mainstreaming as part o the strategy to attaining that

vision.1 Recognizing these connections is part o the overall sensitization

process. I a city does not have a vision, this could be a good impetus to createone.

STEP 3. Establish an LRAP Team

City government representatives (preerably at a roundtable) will need to

determine how best to develop the LRAP. One way is by establishing a team to

be responsible or guiding plan development. This LRAP team should consist

o o cials at the policy level who can undertake key decisions necessary or

implementation, as well as technical personnel who can undertake the analy-

sis required or the LRAP.

The entire process o developing an LRAP presents both a leadership chal-

lenge and an opportunity or a city government. Success depends on a partici-

patory and credible local governance structure. The LRAP team need not

displace existing institutions or create parallel bodies with overlapping man-

dates; where a relevant body exists, its mandate can be broadened to include

LRAP development. However, where no such body exists, city steering com-

mittees established to address climate change as an ongoing responsibility

should be considered to be a permanent local government unction.

An important corollary to establishment o the LRAP team is an a rma-

tion, at the outset, o a commitment to implement the actions emerging rom

the LRAP process. A high-level endorsement o the final LRAP should be

planned or; this will make the end goal more viable and the LRAP process

more meaningul. City representatives can discuss whether this commitment


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needs to be documented in some way and whether there are options available

to make it binding.

Partnerships with centers o local expertise, especially universities and

technical institutes, are essential or creating and integrating projections o

uture impacts o climate change and natural disasters into the planning pro-

cess. These partnerships also provide long-term stability to the LRAP process

and can help determine the citys long-term climate-resilience priorities

which span across the terms o o cials and governments.

2.1.2 Technical Analysis

Once the city has involved important sectors o the community, reviewed its

long-term vision, and identified its hotspots in broad terms, the next task is to

identiy the citys specific vulnerabilities through rigorous technical analysis.

STEP 4. Conduct City-Scale Spatial Analysis

The easiest way to visualize a citys vulnerabilities is by looking at macro-

maps that place those vulnerabilities in the context o the city as a whole both

now and as projected in the uture. These macromaps are created by overlay-

ing a series o mapping layers showing the citys administrative boundaries,

physical characteristics, and inrastructure (baseline map); its socioeconomic

eatures, including pockets o poverty and vital commercial and industrial

areas; and its hazard profile, showing areas and neighborhoods prone to

natural disasters and the efects o climate change. Both a current status

macromap and a uture growth macromap are generated in this step, usingeither a computer sotware program or with transparencies or tracing paper.

These maps should be as complete and detailed as possible, both in describing

the current situation and in projecting uture growth, development, and

changes. This will allow or assessment o whether, or example, existing

vulnerabilities will be magnified or new risks introduced to areas not previ-

ously afected by disasters.

STEP 5. Identiy Target Areas

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