Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28-30 April 2010, Lisbon Population estimates and...

Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28-30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population estimates and demographic projections in Spain


Population statistics in Spain before 2005

Vital events questionnaires

Vital Statistics

Demographics Indicators& Mortality Tables

Long Term Population Projections

Demographic Census 2001

Population register“Padrón” Migration Statistics

Intercensal Population Estimates


Population statistics in Spain after 2005


Padrón: Population register

Monthly Demographic

Now Cast

Vital Statistics


Migration Statistics

Population Now Cast

Short and Long Term Population Projections


Monthly Demographic Now Cast : objectives

Reducing the time to disseminate data provided for traditional sources in order to:

Knowing current demographic data to develope Population Now Cast and projections.

Providing figures to cover increasing demands on data about current demographic evolution.


Monthly Demographic Now Cast : products

1) Monthly estimation of demographic events: births, deaths and migration flows.

2) Regional breakdowns (Nuts 3) and breakdowns for basic demographic variables (sex, age, citizenship).

3) Monthly update of main demographic indicators.


Monthly Demographic Now Cast on migrations: information circuit

Monthly account

of variations

INEVariations in the population register

Variations in the population register

Exp

andi

ng a

nd

mod

ellin

g

Monthly Demographic

Now Cast

Municipalities

Expanding and

modelling

Auxiliary

sources


Monthly estimates of

migration flow: methodology

• Flows to estimate and sources used:

– Births– Deaths

– Migration• External

– Inmigration– Emigration

• Internal

Based on vital events statistics

Based mainly on Padron, but not only




• Flows to estimate and methodology used:

– Births– Deaths– Migration

• External– Inmigration

– Emigration

• Internal

Expanding coefficient


Example how we use expanding coefficients: Monthly external immigration flow

• The amount of events that happened in month m, year a is unknown– Example January 2010

• The amount of register variations received in INE in month m+x, year a that happened in month m and year a– Example: in February 2010, 22.362 variations were received that

happened in January 2010

• The amount of events that happened and that were received in the previous year – Example in January 2009 finally happened 33.505 variations and in

February of 2009 only 31.233 of these had been received in INE

• The expanding coefficient – Example 33505/31.233=1,0727

• The final estimation of variations in month m, year a (January 2010) – Example 22362*1,0727= 23.989


1.- Monthly external immigration flow: accuracy and robustness

•Flujo de inmigración exterior mensual

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Janu

ary-

08

Febru

ary-

08

Mar

ch-0

8

April-0

8

May

-08

June

-08

July-

08

Augus

t08

Septe

mbe

r-08

Octobe

r-08

Novem

ber-0

8

Dicem

ber-0

8

Janu

ary-

09

Febru

ary-

09

Mar

ch-0

9

Estimation april 2009 Registered

Monthly external immigration flow




• Flows to estimate and methodology used:

– Births– Deaths

Migration• External

– Inmigration

– Emigration

• Internal

Expanding coefficient



external emigration flow: methodology

Five different types to analyze:

1. Emigration flows to abroad declared in the Padrón.2. Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the

Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities.

3. Emigration flows to abroad of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure.

4. Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón).

5. Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón).


Monthly external emigration flow

1.-Emigration flows declared in the Padrón.

Same procedure presented previously



2.- Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities.

– Exact date of the departure is unknown,

• imputation is based on an uniform distribution of the emigration time between last variation registered in the Padrón central database (which confirms the stay in the country) and the date of the ex oficio deregistration.

– Then, same procedure previously presented


2.- Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through

actions carried out directly by the municipalities.



3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure:

• Foreigners that don´t have a permanent residence permit have to re-register themselves in the Padrón every two years.

• Eu citizens and non-EU citizens with permanent resident permits are not concerned by this regulation.



3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure.

• Four steps– Estimation of the number of records that are going to expire in the following 24

months (these would be situations that affect variations that happened in the past)

– Estimating which of the records that are going to expire in the following 24 months will be finally confirmed

• The average percentage of confirmed exits over the total expired registrations in past months with almost definitive results of the expiry procedure is used as estimator.

– Now we need to estimate the real emigration date of estimated exits.

– Finally, a smoothing procedure is made over the resulting shape of the time distribution



4.- Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón).

• The estimated percentage of EU citizens migrating abroad time after their arrival is got from a survey

• The migration calendar of UE citizens are estimated trough the smoothed distribution of emigration date respect to the time of residence in Spain.

• The estimated percentage of UE citizens migrating abroad and the estimated calendar of emigration give the monthly emigration flow of UE citizens not registered by Municipalities.



5.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón).

Same procedure than the previous one


Now we can follow the recent past

Número Medio de Hijos por Mujer y Edad Media a la Maternidad

1,1

1,15

1,2

1,25

1,3

1,35

1,4

1,45

1,5

Nº

de h

ijo

s

30,6

30,65

30,7

30,75

30,8

30,85

30,9

30,95

Ed

ad

ICF EMM

Total fertility rate and mean age at childbearing

Nu

mb

er o

f b

irth

s

Ag

e

TFR MACh


Now we can follow the recent past

Esperanza de vida al nacimiento

75

77

79

81

83

85

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 agosto08-julio

09Varones Mujeres

Life expectancy at birth

Males FemalesAug

08-J

ul09


Now, we have improved the timeliness





Monthly Demographic

Now Cast

Vital Statistics



Population Now Cast



Population now cast

Best statistical estimation of current resident population that we can produce with the information available in each moment.

Population reference figures for the INE statistical production.

Breakdowns: Spain, Autonomous Regions and provinces by sex, age and citizenship

Coherence between flows and stocks

Coherence between different territorial levels


Methodology is partly determined by some of its special characteristics

• Periodicity: quarterly availability of data.

• Timeliness: only a few days after the reference date

• It is an advanced estimation


Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado

Estimación de la Población Actual1er trimestre de 2009

45800000

45850000

45900000

45950000

46000000

46050000

46100000

Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo J unio J ulio Agosto Septiembre Octubre NoviembreDiciembre Enero

Proyección auxiliar de enero de 2009

Estimación de la Población Actual

Multirregional model (Willekens, Drewe)

Population now cast 1st quarter 2009

Population now cast

Auxiliary projection January 2009

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan




45800000

45850000

45900000

45950000

46000000

46050000

46100000

Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo J unio J ulio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Enero


Proyección auxiliar de febrero de 2009




A. P. February 2009

Population now cast





45800000

45850000

45900000

45950000

46000000

46050000

46100000

Enero Marzo Mayo Julio Septiembre Noviembre Enero


Proyección auxiliar de febrero de 2009

Proyección auxiliar de marzo de 2009



Population now cast

A. P. February 2009

A. P. March 2009







Monthly Demographic

Now Cast

Vital Statistics



Population Now Cast



Which is the objective of our demographic projections ?

It is not to make a forecast.

It is an statistical simulation about how will be the stock and basic structure of population based on some hypothesis about future demographic evolution.

Main goal: showing where we will be if recent demographics trends remain constant in the future.


Population projections with this approach

Neutral: we do not make any assumptions about unknown changes in future evolution of events

Usefull: advance warning of possible future risks .

Updated: guaranteed by the periodicity in its data


Methodology allow to produce data about demographic components

Component method.

Multirregional model (Willekens, Drewe).

Coherence of data between all territorial levels.

Coherence between stocks and flows.

The projection provides data for population and also for each demographic event.


Methodology to calculate fertility component

Tasas de Fecundidad por Edad observadas 1996-2008 y proyectadas 2009-2018

0,000

0,040

0,080

0,120

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009

2013 2018

Fertility rates by age observed 1996-2008 and projected 2009-2018


Action plan since 2008

• Short term population projection:

Term: 10 years. Periodicity: annual. Territorial breakdown: Spain,

autonomous regions and provinces

Pirámide de población. Años 2009 y 2019España

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

2009

2019

Varones Mujeres

Varones+Mujeres=10000


Action plan since 2008

• Long term population projection :

Term: 40 years Periodicity: Every three years. Territorial breakdown: only

national figures.

Pirámides de población de España

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Varones Mujeres

Varones+Mujeres=10000

2049

2039

2029

2019

2009


Thank you very much for your attention!

Population Statistics DirectorateInstituto Nacional de Estadística

[email protected]@ine.es

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28-30 April 2010, Lisbon Population estimates and...

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