Work began on the Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook Model€¦ · Figure 1 provides an overview...

Alberta Human Resources and Employment (AHRE) provides

labour market information to assist both the government and the

public in decision-making. Occupational demand and supply

outlooks are affected by a variety of factors and will change over

time. When making decisions based on projections, multiple

sources of information should always be considered.

Work began on the Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook Model

five years ago. Currently, it is able to predict occupational demand

for 140 occupations for Alberta.

In 2003, work began on a counterpart model, the Alberta

Occupational Supply Outlook Model, which helps provide insight

into current labour market supply and possible supply and

demand imbalances that may occur in the future. This year, the

Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) system has been

used to enhance the education sub-model. In addition, several

occupational categories, at the 4-digit NOC1 level, have been

added to the outlook.

AHRE continues to enhance this model’s precision and

encourages readers to provide advice and feedback on its

usefulness and opportunities for improvements to

[email protected].

1 NOC: National Occupational Classification For more information regarding the NOC system, please visit: http://www23.hrdc-drhc.gc.ca/2001/e/generic/welcome.shtml

Over the past two decades, Alberta has had the highest rate of economic growth and the

highest employment rate in Canada. The demand for workers in Alberta’s robust

economy has led to a tight labour market and skill shortages in many occupational

groups. Moreover, an ageing population, leading to retirements, may further compound

the shortage of skilled labour.

To better understand and respond to this situation, Alberta Human Resources and

Employment (AHRE) has developed both the Alberta Occupational Demand and Supply

Outlook Models. Figure 1 provides an overview of the two models. These models

project the demand and supply for 140 different occupations in Alberta between 2006

and 2016. By calculating imbalances between demand and supply, future occupational

shortages or surpluses can be forecasted. Results from the two models help users to

make better decisions about developing and funding programs and policies as well as

personal decisions about education, jobs and careers.

Figure 1: An Overview of the Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook Models

Occupational Supply

Education Demographics

Occupational Demand/Supply

Imbalances

Economic Outlook

Occupational Outlook

Occupational Demand

Occupational Demand Model

Occupational Supply Model

Occupational Demand Model Occupational Demand

Each model can be broken down into sub-models, which use many data sources. The

Alberta Occupational Supply Outlook Model (AOSOM) has 30 linked sub-models and

over 100,000 data series. The AOSOM has been developed recently and

enhancements have been made to the original model. For example, this year, the model

used the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) system to enhance the education

sub-model. Also, several 4-digit NOC level occupations have been added to the outlook.

The Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook Model (AODOM) has been used for the past

five years and has proven to be reliable.

Once occupational demand and supply have been projected, a simple ratio of

demand/supply is calculated to measure imbalances. In an ideal or balanced labour

market the ratio is one, whereas a ratio of greater than one indicates a potential

shortage, as demand is greater than supply.

This year’s findings of the two models are provided in this report. The results presented

in this report are from the medium scenario, however, the low and high scenarios

results, at the aggregate level, are available upon request. AHRE believes that

continued work on and development of the AOSOM will help to provide important

information on labour market imbalances. AHRE encourages readers to provide advice

and feedback on the model’s usefulness, construction and results. Please see

Appendices A and B for a detailed view of the model’s methodology and assumptions.

Occupational Demand and Supply Estimates for All Occupations in Alberta, 2006-2016

1,6001,8002,0002,2002,400(000s)

Demand Supply

Demand/Supply 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02

Demand 1825.06 1865.56 1906.16 1947.96 1986.16 2024.36 2064.21 2103.80 2143.45 2183.95 2225.40

Supply 1882.69 1925.31 1961.97 1997.04 2027.13 2056.95 2084.66 2109.88 2132.68 2153.92 2174.04

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Alberta’s labour market is projected to grow by 400,000 workers between 2006 and

2016, an annual average rate of 2.0%. A net increase of 291,000 workers are expected

to join the labour force, as occupational supply increases at an annual rate of 1.5%.

Over the next ten years, Alberta could experience a labour shortage as high as 109,000.

It is expected that in 2006 overall occupational supply will exceed demand, however

demand is projected to exceed supply by 2016. Chart 1 shows more detailed information

about the labour market indicators for an aggregate of all occupations in Alberta. Chart 1

Labour Market Indicators for All Occupations in Alberta, 2006 and 2016

1,8252,174

1,8832,225

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Occupational Demand Occupational Supply

(000s)

2006 2016

Data Source: AHRE’s Occupational Demand Outlook Model, AHRE’s Occupational Supply Outlook Model Chart 2 presents the trends of occupational demand and supply for all occupations in

Alberta from 2006 to 2016. In 2006, occupational supply exceeds demand by 57,639

individuals. The difference between occupational supply and demand narrows until

2014, when it is projected that demand will begin to exceed supply. For the year 2016,

the projected occupational demand exceeds supply by 51,360 workers. For a listing of

occupational demand and supply projections, along with forecasted imbalances, for all

140 occupations and several occupations at the 4-digit NOC, please see Appendix E

and F respectively. Chart 2

Data Source: AHRE’s Occupational Demand Outlook Model, AHRE’s Occupational Supply Outlook Model

Table 1 shows the difference between occupational supply and demand in 2006 and

2016 for those occupations expected to see the fastest growing occupational shortages.

Physicians, dentists and veterinarians show the largest projected difference in 2016 with

4,922 positions. Facility operation and maintenance managers are also anticipated to

experience a large supply shortage, starting the forecast period with a shortage of 1,266

individuals, and moving to a shortage of 3,908 people by 2016. Most of the occupations

in Table 1 are expected to begin the forecast period with a shortage and all of the

occupations are projected to finish the forecast period with a labour shortage. For the

methodology on how the fastest growing occupational supply shortages are calculated,

please see Appendix C. The 15 occupations with the fast growing shortages are given in

more detail in Appendix D.

Labour market shortages are partly due to the number of older workers in these

occupations. Throughout the forecast period, more individuals in these occupations will

retire from their jobs than will enter the occupation. Table 1

Occupational Supply Minus Demand for the Selected Occupations with the Fastest Growing Occupational Shortage, 2006 and 2016

Supply Minus

Demand First Year of

Shortage 2006 2016 Machine operators and related workers in textile processing -127 -632 2006 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians -439 -4,922 2006 Facility operation and maintenance managers -1,266 -3,908 2006 Other engineers2 -629 -3,280 2006 Other elemental service occupations 3 -375 -2,074 2006 Central control and process operators in manufacturing and processing -133 -1,799 2006 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 42 -1,609 2007 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists -191 -1,438 2006 Managers in primary production (except agriculture) -131 -1,124 2006 Technical occupations in dental health care 17 -667 2007 Data Source: AHRE’s Occupational Demand Outlook Model, AHRE’s Occupational Supply Outlook Model

2 Other engineers: Industrial and manufacturing engineers, metallurgical and materials engineers, mining engineers, geological engineers, petroleum engineers, aerospace engineers, computer engineers (except software engineers), other professional engineers, n.e.c 3 Other elemental service occupations: Dry cleaning and laundry occupations, Ironing, pressing and finishing occupations, other elemental service occupations

Table 2 displays the professions that show the fastest growing occupational surpluses

during 2006 to 2016. Within this group, contractors, operators and supervisors in

agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture occupations are expected to see the greatest

surplus of workers, of approximately 11,735 individuals, by 2016. Agriculture and

horticulture workers are also expected to see a large growth in labour surplus, with a

surplus of 2,249 individuals in 2006 increasing to 6,363 individuals by 2016. All of the

occupations are expected to begin the forecast period with an occupational surplus. For

the methodology on how the fastest growing occupational supply surpluses are

calculated, please see Appendix C. The 15 occupations with the fastest growing

surpluses are given in more detail in Appendix D.

The growing surplus expected for many of these occupations reflect the rising enrolment

and graduation rates in post-secondary institutions in Alberta. Within these occupations,

females are expected to show increasing enrolment and graduation rates. Table 2

Occupational Supply Minus Demand for the Selected Occupations with the Fastest Growing Occupational surpluses, 2006 and 2016

Supply Minus

Demand First Year of

Surplus 2006 2016 Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 2,382 11,735 2006 Agriculture and horticulture workers 2,249 6,363 2006 Legislators and senior management 1,175 4,176 2006 Managers in financial and business services 1,361 3,952 2006 Other occupations in protective service 769 2,077 2006 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 579 2,047 2006 Public works and other labourers, n.e.c.4 498 1,195 2006 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 539 539 2006 Train crew operating occupations 176 535 2006 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 398 522 2006 Data Source: AHRE’s Occupational Demand Outlook Model, AHRE’s Occupational Supply Outlook Model

4 n.e.c. : not elsewhere classified

Over the forecast period 2006 to 2016, using both the Alberta Occupational Demand and

Supply Outlook Models, potential labour imbalances for different occupations can be

anticipated. It should be noted that both of these models make projections and therefore

carry assumptions that may change in the future. Hence, a labour shortage or surplus

may not be as severe as the models predict. For example, as occupational demand and

supply conditions change, individuals may decide to enter a field of study that reflects

these current conditions and more people may be attracted to the province. The results

of these models are intended as indicators of where the current situation in Alberta may

lead in future years.

Alberta Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook Models’ Methodologies

Figure 2 provides a detailed view of how occupational demand and supply imbalances

are projected. Two main components in the Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook Model (AODOM)

are the economic and occupational components. The economic component produces an

outlook of Alberta’s economy. Once the performance of the economy is projected, the

occupational component calculates the employment that is required to maintain the

projected growth. The Alberta Occupational Supply Outlook Model (AOSOM) makes occupational supply

projections with a series of transformations that begin with a demographic outlook and

end with occupational supply for 140 occupations. The model has three major

components: demographic, education and replacement demand. Education has a

central importance in this model because of its role in training the labour force.

Figure 2: A Detailed View of the Alberta Occupational Supply and Demand Outlook Models

Industry Output Forecast

Industry Employment Forecast

Changing Distribution of Occupations by Industry

Overall Occupational Growth (Net New Jobs)

Projected Annual Employment Levels For All Occupations

Demographic Projection Gross Migration & Ethnicity/Disability

Distribution Assumptions

Demographic Outlook Age/Sex/ Net Migration

Participation Rate Stock-Flow Coefficient

projection

Labour Supply by OccupationAge/Gender/Ethnicity/

Work Activity Limitations

Projected Death, Retirements and Other

Outflow Attrition/Separation Coefficients

Attrition Coefficients Applied To

Employment Levels

Projected Replacement Demand by Occupation

Supply/Demand Imbalances

Employment by OccupationAge/Gender/Ethnicity/

Work Activity Limitations (based on historic share)

Enrolment, Graduation, Educational Attainment by

Level of Schooling & Major Field of

Study

Replacement Demand Component

Demographic Component

Education Component

Alberta Occupational

Demand Outlook

Alberta Occupational Supply Outlook Model Assumptions

As with all forecasts, a number of assumptions are used to derive the results. The model

can utilize different assumptions to test various economic scenarios. The assumptions

used to generate the results in Appendix E and F are set out below.

Alberta’s Key Economic Indicators

• The average annual growth rate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 3.4%.

• The average annual unemployment rate is 3.8%.

• The average annual participation rate is 73.2%.

• The high level of investment in the province is expected to continue.

Demographic Component

• To forecast the population levels of age and gender groups, a share approach1 based on the population from the 2001 census is applied to the current population estimates.

Migration

• The level of out-migration is equal to the historic five-year average from 1999 to 2003.

• The level of in-migration equals the projected net-migration plus the assumed out-migration.

• Age and gender distributions for net-migration are equal to the age and gender distributions for in-migration and out-migration.

• Future immigrants by education type will experience similar occupational outcomes.

Aboriginals

• The Alberta aboriginal population’s birth and death rates are the same as the Canadian aboriginal population’s rates.

Visible Minorities

• The visible minorities’ age/gender birth and death rates are equal to the Alberta general population’s birth and death rates.

• The visible minorities’ less than 15 years old age groups (less than 1, 1-3, 4-9, 10-15 years) are assumed to have the same distributions as the Alberta younger age groups.

1 Share Approach: A method to estimate the future number of people in a group of interest. The proportion of the group of interest to the general population is applied to the forecasted general population estimates to find the predicted group of interest’s population. Example:

Activity LimitationsAlberta Population t t+1 t+1

Activity Limitation Population x

The proportion at time t

Is Mutiplied by the Projected Alberta Population for time t+1

To find the projected number of people with activities limitations

for time t+1

Alberta Population Projec tion =

Demographic Component (Cont.) Activity Limitations

• To calculate the number of people with activity limitations, a share approach by age and gender was used.

Education Component

Enrolment & Graduation • The number of people who attend or complete school is calculated as a share of

the total number in that age or gender group. This proportion is based on historic shares.

• Enrolment rates increase at the same rate as the average of the high and low enrolment rate projections that were conducted by Alberta Advanced Education.

• Migration rates by educational attainment are constant and were applied to the projected total migration levels.

• The age and gender distributions for new university graduates are projected with the same age and gender distributions from the educational attainment data.

• To calculate the number of college and trades graduates, the ratio of college and trades graduates to the general population is used. This value is then adjusted to ensure that the ratio of university graduates to college and trades graduates remains constant.

• The overall ratio of university to college and trades graduates is applied to the different age groups to project the number of college and trades graduates within each age group.

• Overall drop out rates and mature student rates are used for the different major fields of study.

• The secondary school enrolment rate for males and females would remain constant over the projection period.

Educational Attainment

• To calculate the number of people with university, college and trades, and high school education, a stock-flow approach2 is used.

• Those with less than a high school education are determined to be those not already accounted for in other educational attainment categories.

• Less than high school educational attainment is adjusted to reflect the estimated portion of mature students in post-secondary institutions that do not have a high school diploma. High school educational attainment is also adjusted to subtract recent graduates from university and college and trades.

2 Stock-Flow Approach: A method in estimating the future population of people in a group of interest. To find the forecasted population, the population from the previous year is adjusted to add those expected to enter that group and subtract those that are expected to leave that group. Example:

t+ 1 t t+ 1 t+ 1

p lu sR e c en t

G r ad u ate s o f C ol leg e /T ra d es

m in us

P e op le L ea v in g Gr o up du e to

d e ath , r et ir e m e nt , e tc .

N u m b e r o f pe o pl e w i th

C o lle g e /T r a de s T r ai ni ng

=N u m be r o f p eo p le w ith

C ol le ge /T ra d es T ra in in g

Education Component (Cont.)

Educational Attainment (Cont.) • The overall enrolment rate for mature students is used for all age groups within

the mature student category. • To project educational attainment by major field of study, the historic relative

enrolment rate is maintained over the projected period.

• The share of new graduates by major field of study and migration are constant over time.

• University transfer programs are included as university enrollment and university certificates are classified as college and technical.

• Educational attainment is based on the new graduate forecast plus net inflows from migration less deaths.

Replacement Demand Component

• Retirement rates are derived from Alberta Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, at a fairly aggregate occupational level.

• Retirement by occupation uses the age distribution in that occupation given by the LFS. As people working in a specific occupation enter the average age of retirement for that gender group, they will be considered retired.

• Emigration, out-migration and death rates are assumed to be the same for those employed as the general population for a particular age/gender group.

Occupational Component

• Potential occupational supply is distributed over the various demographic groups using historical distributions of population and educational attainment.

• Potential occupational supply is translated into actual occupational supply by using historic participation rates by occupation.

• Each detailed occupation (NOC-140) has the same distribution of major field of study as it did in major occupation groups (NOC-47).

• The estimated number of individuals by occupation, age and gender is scaled up to ensure that, in general, the relative balance between labour supply and demand in 2001 is maintained.

Calculating the Fastest Growing Shortages and Surpluses To measure occupational shortages and surpluses, a ratio for each occupation is

calculated:

(1)

A ratio less than one indicates that supply is greater than demand, a supply surplus.

A ratio greater than one occurs if demand is greater than supply, a supply shortage.

For each year in the forecast period the growth rate of the demand/supply ratio is

calculated using the following formula:

(2)

Then, the average annual growth rate for the demand/supply ratio is calculated for each

of NOC 3 Digit and 4 Digit occupations. The average annual growth rate is a simple

mean of the yearly growth rates for the period 2006 to 2016.

The highest demand/supply average annual growth rates identify the occupations with

the fastest growing shortages. The lowest average annual growth rates find the

occupations with the fastest growing surplus during the forecast period.

Example a: An average growth rate of 2.0% indicates that occupational demand will

grow 2.0 percentage points higher than occupational supply on average each year.

Example b: An average growth rate of –0.7% indicates that occupational supply will

grow 0.7 percentage points higher than occupational demand on average each year.

Occupational DemandOccupational Supply

Demand DemandSupply Supply

t t-1

DemandSupply

t-1

minus

x 100

Occupations with the Fastest Growing Shortages and Surpluses

Occupational Demand/Supply Ratio* and Growth Rates for Occupations with the Fastest Growing Shortages, 2006-2016

*Supply Shortage if Greater Than 1 Supply Surplus if Less Than 1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016J15 - Machine operators and related workers in textile processing 1.24 1.75 2.32 3.13 3.53 3.86 4.20 4.04 4.05 4.10 4.13 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 24.0 41.2 32.6 34.9 12.8 9.2 9.0 -3.9 0.2 1.1 0.8 14.7A34 - Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 139.8 3.8 11.4 -6.5 1.5 -0.7 -5.5 5.7 -1.9 -1.5 -2.9 13.0A14 - Facility operation and maintenance managers 1.31 1.55 1.75 1.91 2.03 2.20 2.20 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 30.5 18.9 12.8 9.0 6.5 8.1 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.1 7.8C02 - Life science professionals 1.24 1.47 1.69 1.87 2.07 2.08 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.10 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 23.9 18.7 15.1 10.2 10.8 0.7 2.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 7.3G72 - Tour and recreational guides and casino occupations 1.12 1.32 1.45 1.56 1.63 1.72 1.83 1.83 1.85 1.88 1.88 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 17.1 17.5 9.9 7.6 4.7 5.3 6.4 0.2 0.9 2.0 -0.4 6.5A33 - Managers in public administration 1.14 1.25 1.36 1.46 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.55 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 13.9 9.9 8.4 7.4 6.9 -0.1 -1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.2G98 - Other elemental service occupations 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 9.6 9.5 5.2 4.2 2.8 2.3 3.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 3.8D01 - Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 1.08 1.18 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.36 1.40 1.42 1.43 1.45 1.46 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 9.6 9.5 5.2 4.2 2.8 2.3 3.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 3.8D02 - Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.19 1.22 1.26 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.41 1.45 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 4.8 5.2 3.6 3.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.4D03 - Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.17 1.21 1.25 1.29 1.32 1.36 1.40 1.44 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 5.4 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.4F11-Technical occupation in libraries, archives, museums and art galleries 1.10 1.20 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.35 1.36 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.32 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 10.3 9.0 7.2 3.6 2.3 -0.9 0.1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 2.6C04 - Other engineers 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.27 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 6.5 4.1 3.3 1.7 1.3 1.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.3A35 - Managers in protective service 0.74 0.83 0.93 0.99 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.17 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -25.1 13.1 11.3 7.1 5.9 4.2 2.5 2.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.1J11 - Central control and process operators in manufacturing and processing 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.24 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 3.6 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.1A38 - Managers in primary production (except agriculture) 1.03 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.20 1.22 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 5.5 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.1

Average Annual Growth Rate (%),

2006-2016

Occupations with the Fastest Growing Shortages and Surpluses (Cont.)

Occupational Demand/Supply Ratio* and Growth Rates for Occupations with the Fastest Growing Surpluses, 2006-2016


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016I02 - Agriculture and horticulture workers 0.83 0.76 0.73 0.70 0.69 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -14.4 -8.3 -4.5 -3.5 -2.2 -2.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -3.5A30 - Managers in financial and business services 0.79 0.68 0.65 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -19.7 -13.4 -4.9 -3.9 -1.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.4 -3.1F01 - Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -38.9 2.6 2.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.9 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -2.9G62 - Other occupations in protective service 0.79 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -21.1 -11.8 -4.0 -3.3 -0.2 -0.7 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 -2.9G63 - Security guards and related occupations 0.79 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -21.1 -11.8 -4.0 -3.3 -0.2 -0.7 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 -2.9I11 - Supervisors, logging and forestry 1.16 1.06 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -2.0 -8.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.8I18 - Other fishing and trapping occupations 1.09 0.95 0.88 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) 4.4 -12.3 -8.0 -4.0 -2.1 -1.8 -2.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -2.6H72 - Train crew operating occupations 0.82 0.70 0.64 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.69 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -11.3 -14.4 -9.4 -4.9 -1.0 2.3 1.3 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.6 -2.4H83 - Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. 0.81 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -11.4 -8.6 -4.0 -2.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 -2.2A31 - Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 0.71 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -26.2 -3.8 -0.2 -1.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 -2.2A01 - Legislators and senior management 0.87 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -10.6 -9.6 -3.7 -3.1 -1.1 -0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 -2.1I16 - Logging and forestry workers 0.91 0.87 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -0.9 -4.3 -3.4 -1.9 -1.6 -1.8 -2.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.3 -2.0E01 - Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 0.91 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -5.8 -4.4 -2.7 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -1.9I01-Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture and horticulture 0.95 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.81 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -4.3 -3.4 -2.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.9I15 - Logging machinery operators 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.77 Demand/Supply Growth Rate (%) -1.2 -2.8 -2.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8

Average Annual Growth Rate (%),

2006-2016

Appendix 1

Results of Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply for 140 Occupations, 2006-2016


Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016All Occupations Demand Projection 1,825,055 1,865,557 1,906,158 1,947,956 1,986,156 2,024,356 2,064,206 2,103,802 2,143,449 2,183,947 2,225,404 Supply Projection 1,882,694 1,925,313 1,961,974 1,997,035 2,027,132 2,056,954 2,084,657 2,109,884 2,132,677 2,153,923 2,174,045 Demand/Supply* 0.969 0.969 0.972 0.975 0.980 0.984 0.990 0.997 1.005 1.014 1.024 0.989A01 - Legislators and senior management Demand Projection 7,969 8,517 9,050 9,594 10,147 10,652 11,199 11,775 12,320 12,865 13,421 Supply Projection 9,144 10,809 11,924 13,043 13,954 14,694 15,360 16,008 16,539 17,061 17,597 Demand/Supply 0.872 0.788 0.759 0.736 0.727 0.725 0.729 0.736 0.745 0.754 0.763 0.757A11 - Administrative services managers Demand Projection 9,100 9,442 9,782 10,170 10,548 10,888 11,246 11,651 12,015 12,360 12,721 Supply Projection 10,227 11,216 12,044 12,758 13,338 13,867 14,376 14,850 15,235 15,579 15,934 Demand/Supply 0.890 0.842 0.812 0.797 0.791 0.785 0.782 0.785 0.789 0.793 0.798 0.806A12 - Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information Demand Projection 6,881 7,045 7,190 7,350 7,517 7,658 7,821 7,997 8,171 8,343 8,510 Supply Projection 6,738 6,704 6,727 6,766 6,845 6,932 7,009 7,143 7,267 7,380 7,483 Demand/Supply 1.021 1.051 1.069 1.086 1.098 1.105 1.116 1.119 1.124 1.130 1.137 1.096A13 - Sales, marketing and advertising managers Demand Projection 11,324 11,348 11,372 11,397 11,420 11,442 11,487 11,531 11,575 11,620 11,665 Supply Projection 11,656 11,904 12,163 12,373 12,589 12,728 12,992 13,222 13,438 13,639 13,828 Demand/Supply 0.971 0.953 0.935 0.921 0.907 0.899 0.884 0.872 0.861 0.852 0.844 0.900A14 - Facility operation and maintenance managers Demand Projection 5,412 5,565 5,729 5,923 6,114 6,282 6,454 6,650 6,826 6,988 7,165 Supply Projection 4,146 3,584 3,271 3,101 3,006 2,858 2,929 3,034 3,112 3,175 3,257 Demand/Supply 1.305 1.553 1.752 1.910 2.034 2.198 2.203 2.192 2.194 2.201 2.200 1.976A21 - Managers in retail trade Demand Projection 36,528 37,783 39,091 40,536 41,763 42,876 43,762 44,812 45,814 46,678 47,571 Supply Projection 36,786 38,038 39,192 40,271 41,047 41,639 42,084 42,690 43,208 43,583 43,967 Demand/Supply 0.993 0.993 0.997 1.007 1.017 1.030 1.040 1.050 1.060 1.071 1.082 1.031A22 - Managers in food service and accommodation Demand Projection 18,875 19,247 19,703 20,149 20,536 20,927 21,310 21,749 22,124 22,492 22,894 Supply Projection 19,797 20,167 20,587 20,941 21,260 21,587 21,853 22,142 22,359 22,542 22,728 Demand/Supply 0.953 0.954 0.957 0.962 0.966 0.969 0.975 0.982 0.989 0.998 1.007 0.974

Appendix 1

Results of Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply for 140 Occupations, 2006-2016 (Cont.)


Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016A30 - Managers in financial and business services Demand Projection 5,011 5,364 5,662 6,075 6,457 6,847 7,140 7,443 7,713 7,922 8,133 Supply Projection 6,372 7,873 8,743 9,766 10,496 11,073 11,381 11,629 11,826 11,937 12,086 Demand/Supply* 0.786 0.681 0.648 0.622 0.615 0.618 0.627 0.640 0.652 0.664 0.673 0.657A31 - Managers in communication (except broadcasting) Demand Projection 968 1,004 1,049 1,107 1,158 1,199 1,232 1,273 1,305 1,323 1,360 Supply Projection 1,366 1,472 1,542 1,647 1,727 1,775 1,794 1,821 1,844 1,845 1,882 Demand/Supply 0.709 0.682 0.680 0.672 0.671 0.676 0.687 0.699 0.708 0.717 0.723 0.693A32 - Managers in health, education, social and community services Demand Projection 9,762 9,905 10,079 10,322 10,486 10,678 10,875 11,131 11,329 11,538 11,787 Supply Projection 10,113 10,388 10,658 10,927 11,150 11,404 11,633 11,876 12,081 12,279 12,483 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.954 0.946 0.945 0.940 0.936 0.935 0.937 0.938 0.940 0.944 0.944A33 - Managers in public administration Demand Projection 1,647 1,685 1,714 1,748 1,780 1,814 1,847 1,886 1,917 1,949 1,985 Supply Projection 1,447 1,347 1,263 1,200 1,143 1,166 1,201 1,225 1,243 1,262 1,284 Demand/Supply 1.139 1.251 1.357 1.456 1.557 1.555 1.538 1.540 1.542 1.544 1.546 1.457A34 - Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport Demand Projection 2,397 2,450 2,519 2,590 2,645 2,689 2,727 2,776 2,813 2,833 2,879 Supply Projection 1055 1039 959 1055 1061 1086 1166 1123 1160 1185 1241 Demand/Supply 2.272 2.358 2.627 2.456 2.492 2.475 2.339 2.472 2.426 2.390 2.320 2.421A35 - Managers in protective service Demand Projection 1039 1080 1107 1142 1176 1214 1248 1289 1320 1351 1388 Supply Projection 1413 1298 1196 1152 1120 1109 1113 1123 1142 1162 1188 Demand/Supply 0.735 0.832 0.926 0.991 1.050 1.094 1.121 1.148 1.156 1.163 1.168 1.035A36 - Managers in other services Demand Projection 2,156 2,233 2,317 2,411 2,488 2,552 2,600 2,659 2,712 2,745 2,799 Supply Projection 2,185 2,350 2,502 2,624 2,731 2,777 2,813 2,869 2,915 2,935 2,986 Demand/Supply 0.987 0.950 0.926 0.919 0.911 0.919 0.924 0.927 0.930 0.935 0.937 0.933A37 - Managers in construction and transportation Demand Projection 23,066 23,711 24,162 24,163 24,211 24,614 24,994 24,667 24,888 25,446 25,790 Supply Projection 22,843 23,098 23,326 23,497 23,688 23,927 24,172 24,345 24,605 24,901 25,154 Demand/Supply 1.010 1.027 1.036 1.028 1.022 1.029 1.034 1.013 1.011 1.022 1.025 1.023

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016A38 - Managers in primary production (except agriculture) Demand Projection 4,385 4,384 4,455 4,448 4,585 4,612 4,896 5,257 5,523 5,830 6,129 Supply Projection 4,254 4,077 4,001 3,942 4,064 4,068 4,312 4,583 4,722 4,874 5,005 Demand/Supply* 1.031 1.075 1.113 1.128 1.128 1.134 1.135 1.147 1.170 1.196 1.225 1.135A39 - Managers in manufacturing and utilities Demand Projection 6,545 6,708 6,914 7,147 7,354 7,539 7,738 7,977 8,190 8,375 8,549 Supply Projection 6,909 7,158 7,412 7,636 7,849 7,996 8,114 8,273 8,398 8,494 8,585 Demand/Supply 0.947 0.937 0.933 0.936 0.937 0.943 0.954 0.964 0.975 0.986 0.996 0.955B01 - Auditors, accountants and investment professionals Demand Projection 36815 37637 38368 39211 40123 40915 41830 42834 43753 44638 45505 Supply Projection 37876 39245 40630 42072 43526 44867 46200 47653 48957 50151 51278 Demand/Supply 0.972 0.959 0.944 0.932 0.922 0.912 0.905 0.899 0.894 0.890 0.887 0.920B02 - Human resources and business service professionals Demand Projection 14,957 15,152 15,326 15,533 15,744 15,920 16,126 16,362 16,581 16,787 17,002 Supply Projection 15,445 15,783 16,105 16,417 16,714 17,006 17,289 17,565 17,828 18,074 18,306 Demand/Supply 0.968 0.960 0.952 0.946 0.942 0.936 0.933 0.932 0.930 0.929 0.929 0.941B11 - Finance and insurance administrative occupations Demand Projection 35,969 36,606 37,156 37,753 38,331 38,926 39,505 40,015 40,571 41,125 41,659 Supply Projection 36,245 36,752 37,214 37,646 38,057 38,458 38,810 39,109 39,360 39,547 39,674 Demand/Supply 0.992 0.996 0.998 1.003 1.007 1.012 1.018 1.023 1.031 1.040 1.050 1.016B21 - Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists Demand Projection 18,833 19,694 20,496 21,361 22,118 22,904 23,668 24,428 25,200 26,008 26,840 Supply Projection 21,580 24,352 26,170 27,572 28,488 29,343 30,027 30,475 30,871 31,250 31,583 Demand/Supply 0.873 0.809 0.783 0.775 0.776 0.781 0.788 0.802 0.816 0.832 0.850 0.808B31 - Administrative and regulatory occupations Demand Projection 38,321 39,160 39,954 40,809 41,630 42,427 43,274 44,141 44,975 45,804 46,649 Supply Projection 39,102 39,861 40,533 41,207 41,843 42,478 43,066 43,614 44,093 44,501 44,853 Demand/Supply 0.980 0.982 0.986 0.990 0.995 0.999 1.005 1.012 1.020 1.029 1.040 1.003B41 - Clerical supervisors Demand Projection 13,786 13,967 14,136 14,364 14,589 14,793 15,001 15,236 15,448 15,638 15,844 Supply Projection 13,745 13,883 14,017 14,150 14,280 14,407 14,523 14,629 14,719 14,792 14,851 Demand/Supply 1.003 1.006 1.008 1.015 1.022 1.027 1.033 1.042 1.050 1.057 1.067 1.030

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016B51 - Clerical occupations, general office skills Demand Projection 33,152 34,404 35,628 37,017 38,219 39,391 40,547 41,854 43,051 44,222 45,476 Supply Projection 33,486 33,907 34,442 35,163 35,663 36,126 36,419 37,116 37,564 37,917 38,306 Demand/Supply* 0.990 1.015 1.034 1.053 1.072 1.090 1.113 1.128 1.146 1.166 1.187 1.090B52 - Office equipment operators Demand Projection 8,861 9,047 9,232 9,456 9,660 9,843 10,016 10,215 10,393 10,544 10,721 Supply Projection 9,181 9,349 9,502 9,647 9,763 9,865 9,948 10,017 10,059 10,073 10,081 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.968 0.972 0.980 0.989 0.998 1.007 1.020 1.033 1.047 1.064 1.004B53 - Finance and insurance clerks Demand Projection 38,514 39,388 40,197 41,177 42,128 43,035 43,920 44,867 45,731 46,520 47,324 Supply Projection 39,217 40,097 40,846 41,567 42,171 42,694 43,130 43,484 43,766 43,940 44,026 Demand/Supply 0.982 0.982 0.984 0.991 0.999 1.008 1.018 1.032 1.045 1.059 1.075 1.016B54 - Administrative support clerks Demand Projection 31,815 32,044 32,259 32,514 32,736 32,957 33,232 33,549 33,830 34,110 34,409 Supply Projection 32,424 32,632 32,823 33,001 33,167 33,329 33,470 33,590 33,690 33,766 33,819 Demand/Supply 0.981 0.982 0.983 0.985 0.987 0.989 0.993 0.999 1.004 1.010 1.017 0.994B55 - Library, correspondence and related information clerks Demand Projection 14,933 15,425 15,907 16,493 17,005 17,468 17,847 18,297 18,697 19,019 19,411 Supply Projection 15,203 15,599 16,038 16,481 16,789 17,028 17,240 17,476 17,630 17,691 17,821 Demand/Supply 0.982 0.989 0.992 1.001 1.013 1.026 1.035 1.047 1.061 1.075 1.089 1.028B56 - Mail and message distribution occupations Demand Projection 12,079 12,178 12,242 12,572 12,973 13,302 13,582 13,913 14,204 14,414 14,712 Supply Projection 11,964 11,903 11,875 12,011 12,167 12,282 12,356 12,467 12,544 12,580 12,649 Demand/Supply 1.010 1.023 1.031 1.047 1.066 1.083 1.099 1.116 1.132 1.146 1.163 1.083B57 - Recording, scheduling and distributing occupations Demand Projection 26,206 26,784 27,391 28,161 28,899 29,553 30,172 30,891 31,553 32,138 32,760 Supply Projection 27,153 27,634 28,063 28,486 28,887 29,263 29,612 29,936 30,220 30,473 30,711 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.969 0.976 0.989 1.000 1.010 1.019 1.032 1.044 1.055 1.067 1.011C01 - Physical science professionals Demand Projection 6,890 6,958 7,067 7,135 7,314 7,395 7,681 8,043 8,326 8,636 8,939 Supply Projection 7,144 7,256 7,389 7,505 7,662 7,766 7,989 8,212 8,367 8,518 8,654 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.959 0.956 0.951 0.955 0.952 0.962 0.979 0.995 1.014 1.033 0.975

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016C02 - Life science professionals Demand Projection 2,959 3,033 3,091 3,165 3,230 3,293 3,349 3,414 3,474 3,530 3,588 Supply Projection 2,388 2,061 1,825 1,696 1,562 1,582 1,578 1,616 1,648 1,677 1,707 Demand/Supply* 1.239 1.471 1.694 1.866 2.068 2.081 2.122 2.112 2.107 2.105 2.101 1.906C03 - Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers Demand Projection 17,218 17,600 17,932 18,250 18,581 18,890 19,252 19,584 19,960 20,361 20,718 Supply Projection 17,326 17,561 17,719 17,864 17,973 18,057 18,130 18,161 18,175 18,164 18,114 Demand/Supply 0.994 1.002 1.012 1.022 1.034 1.046 1.062 1.078 1.098 1.121 1.144 1.056C04 - Other engineers Demand Projection 11,948 12,121 12,349 12,520 12,831 13,006 13,447 13,977 14,417 14,887 15,345 Supply Projection 11,319 11,029 10,878 10,840 10,964 10,908 11,187 11,500 11,700 11,896 12,065 Demand/Supply 1.056 1.099 1.135 1.155 1.170 1.192 1.202 1.215 1.232 1.251 1.272 1.180C05 - Architects, urban planners and land surveyors Demand Projection 5,122 5,249 5,335 5,429 5,521 5,611 5,695 5,767 5,861 5,961 6,048 Supply Projection 5,197 5,254 5,302 5,359 5,421 5,478 5,552 5,621 5,695 5,767 5,830 Demand/Supply 0.986 0.999 1.006 1.013 1.018 1.024 1.026 1.026 1.029 1.034 1.037 1.018C06 - Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries Demand Projection 356 365 371 381 390 398 404 411 419 426 433 Supply Projection 455 442 446 449 448 449 456 462 465 467 469 Demand/Supply 0.783 0.826 0.833 0.849 0.870 0.886 0.886 0.890 0.901 0.911 0.922 0.869C07 - Computer and information systems professionals Demand Projection 32,182 32,811 33,339 33,995 34,615 35,145 35,660 36,241 36,821 37,345 37,887 Supply Projection 32,395 32,966 33,488 33,983 34,424 34,870 35,290 35,687 36,060 36,399 36,706 Demand/Supply 0.993 0.995 0.996 1.000 1.006 1.008 1.010 1.016 1.021 1.026 1.032 1.009C11 - Technical occupations in physical sciences Demand Projection 5,893 5,988 6,112 6,216 6,390 6,491 6,729 7,023 7,263 7,515 7,759 Supply Projection 5,994 6,149 6,293 6,409 6,595 6,668 6,850 7,019 7,131 7,234 7,320 Demand/Supply 0.983 0.974 0.971 0.970 0.969 0.974 0.982 1.001 1.019 1.039 1.060 0.995C12 - Technical occupations in life sciences Demand Projection 4,186 4,277 4,351 4,438 4,514 4,589 4,657 4,730 4,800 4,864 4,935 Supply Projection 4,212 4,183 4,183 4,201 4,212 4,283 4,329 4,394 4,451 4,502 4,554 Demand/Supply 0.994 1.022 1.040 1.056 1.072 1.072 1.076 1.077 1.078 1.080 1.084 1.059

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016C13 - Technical occ. in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering Demand Projection 7,651 7,850 8,011 8,099 8,185 8,319 8,455 8,486 8,606 8,778 8,905 Supply Projection 7,424 7,450 7,477 7,479 7,492 7,551 7,606 7,626 7,684 7,755 7,799 Demand/Supply* 1.031 1.054 1.072 1.083 1.092 1.102 1.112 1.113 1.120 1.132 1.142 1.096C14 - Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering Demand Projection 13,699 13,981 14,289 14,593 14,899 15,163 15,473 15,799 16,112 16,412 16,726 Supply Projection 14,063 14,401 14,588 14,681 14,760 14,837 14,904 14,959 15,019 15,061 15,098 Demand/Supply 0.974 0.971 0.979 0.994 1.009 1.022 1.038 1.056 1.073 1.090 1.108 1.029C15 - Technical occupations in architecture, drafting and surveying Demand Projection 10,244 10,473 10,651 10,842 11,022 11,195 11,360 11,508 11,693 11,881 12,044 Supply Projection 10,185 10,294 10,395 10,487 10,580 10,657 10,718 10,776 10,837 10,884 10,907 Demand/Supply 1.006 1.017 1.025 1.034 1.042 1.050 1.060 1.068 1.079 1.092 1.104 1.052C16 - Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers Demand Projection 7,497 7,633 7,748 7,846 7,962 8,073 8,223 8,360 8,508 8,677 8,832 Supply Projection 7,643 7,712 7,790 7,869 7,960 8,048 8,139 8,237 8,333 8,426 8,513 Demand/Supply 0.981 0.990 0.995 0.997 1.000 1.003 1.010 1.015 1.021 1.030 1.037 1.007C17 - Transportation officers and controllers Demand Projection 4,366 4,380 4,379 4,481 4,618 4,728 4,829 4,948 5,050 5,126 5,233 Supply Projection 4,379 4,349 4,346 4,365 4,391 4,415 4,433 4,463 4,487 4,505 4,528 Demand/Supply 0.997 1.007 1.008 1.027 1.052 1.071 1.089 1.109 1.125 1.138 1.156 1.071C18 - Technical occupations in computer and information systems Demand Projection 8,344 8,598 8,838 9,124 9,390 9,618 9,836 10,092 10,329 10,539 10,769 Supply Projection 8,387 8,390 8,420 8,568 8,640 8,696 8,742 8,878 8,988 9,065 9,160 Demand/Supply 0.995 1.025 1.050 1.065 1.087 1.106 1.125 1.137 1.149 1.163 1.176 1.098D01 - Physicians, dentists and veterinarians Demand Projection 13,062 13,293 13,534 13,852 14,024 14,225 14,423 14,723 14,971 15,222 15,507 Supply Projection 12,622 12,448 12,270 12,087 11,867 11,661 11,449 11,245 11,031 10,810 10,585 Demand/Supply 1.035 1.068 1.103 1.146 1.182 1.220 1.260 1.309 1.357 1.408 1.465 1.232D02 - Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing Demand Projection 1,604 1,629 1,657 1,692 1,711 1,734 1,756 1,791 1,819 1,848 1,881 Supply Projection 1,531 1,478 1,451 1,427 1,401 1,380 1,359 1,344 1,328 1,312 1,297 Demand/Supply 1.048 1.103 1.142 1.186 1.222 1.257 1.292 1.332 1.370 1.408 1.450 1.255

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016D03 - Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists Demand Projection 3,704 3,813 3,927 4,062 4,161 4,257 4,339 4,447 4,544 4,635 4,730 Supply Projection 3,513 3,459 3,456 3,465 3,429 3,397 3,369 3,358 3,338 3,314 3,292 Demand/Supply* 1.054 1.102 1.136 1.172 1.213 1.253 1.288 1.325 1.361 1.399 1.437 1.249D04 - Therapy and assessment professionals Demand Projection 7,034 7,137 7,252 7,402 7,482 7,577 7,675 7,823 7,943 8,065 8,206 Supply Projection 7,023 7,049 7,068 7,087 7,088 7,102 7,116 7,131 7,143 7,150 7,154 Demand/Supply 1.002 1.013 1.026 1.045 1.056 1.067 1.079 1.097 1.112 1.128 1.147 1.070D11 - Nurse supervisors and registered nurses Demand Projection 28,494 29,064 29,689 30,506 30,936 31,445 31,954 32,740 33,371 34,014 34,757 Supply Projection 28,664 29,191 29,673 30,175 30,567 30,975 31,366 31,781 32,139 32,467 32,777 Demand/Supply 0.994 0.996 1.001 1.011 1.012 1.015 1.019 1.030 1.038 1.048 1.060 1.020D21 - Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) Demand Projection 6,904 7,103 7,307 7,577 7,733 7,909 8,073 8,317 8,520 8,724 8,953 Supply Projection 7,170 7,567 7,811 8,038 8,086 8,152 8,174 8,202 8,182 8,149 8,121 Demand/Supply 0.963 0.939 0.936 0.943 0.956 0.970 0.988 1.014 1.041 1.071 1.102 0.993D22 - Technical occupations in dental health care Demand Projection 3,384 3,440 3,506 3,589 3,640 3,694 3,751 3,833 3,900 3,965 4,035 Supply Projection 3,401 3,403 3,418 3,423 3,431 3,442 3,444 3,443 3,428 3,402 3,369 Demand/Supply 0.995 1.011 1.026 1.048 1.061 1.073 1.089 1.113 1.138 1.165 1.198 1.083D23 - Other technical occupations in health care (except dental) Demand Projection 12,612 12,888 13,195 13,578 13,803 14,049 14,285 14,636 14,919 15,193 15,521 Supply Projection 12,644 12,887 13,080 13,326 13,417 13,551 13,670 13,797 13,854 13,871 13,880 Demand/Supply 0.997 1.000 1.009 1.019 1.029 1.037 1.045 1.061 1.077 1.095 1.118 1.044D31 - Assisting occupations in support of health services Demand Projection 26,031 26,555 27,125 27,860 28,268 28,734 29,189 29,879 30,440 31,003 31,648 Supply Projection 26,367 26,703 27,021 27,344 27,606 27,885 28,120 28,370 28,558 28,702 28,815 Demand/Supply 0.987 0.994 1.004 1.019 1.024 1.030 1.038 1.053 1.066 1.080 1.098 1.036E01 - Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries Demand Projection 5,868 6,056 6,182 6,348 6,507 6,648 6,768 6,896 7,040 7,177 7,301 Supply Projection 6,447 6,958 7,303 7,636 7,958 8,226 8,474 8,698 8,931 9,149 9,348 Demand/Supply 0.910 0.870 0.847 0.831 0.818 0.808 0.799 0.793 0.788 0.784 0.781 0.821

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016E02 - Psychologists, social workers, counsellors, clergy and probation Demand Projection 14,227 14,542 14,895 15,321 15,596 15,874 16,133 16,506 16,795 17,048 17,395 Supply Projection 14,441 14,900 15,499 16,127 16,678 17,246 17,726 18,400 18,950 19,447 20,040 Demand/Supply* 0.985 0.976 0.961 0.950 0.935 0.920 0.910 0.897 0.886 0.877 0.868 0.924E03 - Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants Demand Projection 10,939 11,233 11,497 11,823 12,110 12,381 12,645 12,958 13,236 13,498 13,789 Supply Projection 11,331 11,794 12,185 12,678 13,123 13,488 13,816 14,214 14,545 14,845 15,163 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.952 0.944 0.933 0.923 0.918 0.915 0.912 0.910 0.909 0.909 0.926E11 - University professors and assistants Demand Projection 14,009 14,117 14,267 14,495 14,669 14,879 15,109 15,380 15,590 15,822 16,094 Supply Projection 14,304 14,517 14,744 14,979 15,180 15,397 15,604 15,818 16,010 16,191 16,362 Demand/Supply 0.979 0.972 0.968 0.968 0.966 0.966 0.968 0.972 0.974 0.977 0.984 0.972E12 - College and other vocational instructors Demand Projection 8,118 8,218 8,348 8,538 8,688 8,859 9,039 9,253 9,420 9,599 9,809 Supply Projection 8,657 9,052 9,395 9,772 10,066 10,341 10,597 10,835 11,042 11,238 11,438 Demand/Supply 0.938 0.908 0.889 0.874 0.863 0.857 0.853 0.854 0.853 0.854 0.858 0.873E13 - Secondary and elementary school teachers and educ. counsellors Demand Projection 41,257 41,695 42,328 43,295 44,033 44,931 45,885 47,010 47,869 48,826 49,960 Supply Projection 41,792 42,196 42,776 43,737 44,475 45,194 45,879 46,648 47,233 47,829 48,461 Demand/Supply 0.987 0.988 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.994 1.000 1.008 1.013 1.021 1.031 1.001E21 - Paralegals, social services and occupation in education and religion Demand Projection 33,709 34,451 35,229 36,231 36,859 37,538 38,193 39,124 39,892 40,645 41,529 Supply Projection 35,548 37,080 38,385 39,723 40,651 41,647 42,531 43,454 44,165 44,817 45,402 Demand/Supply 0.948 0.929 0.918 0.912 0.907 0.901 0.898 0.900 0.903 0.907 0.915 0.913F01 - Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators Demand Projection 1,246 1,282 1,327 1,376 1,415 1,447 1,475 1,511 1,539 1,556 1,589 Supply Projection 1,785 1,792 1,803 1,864 1,909 1,944 1,978 2,007 2,049 2,077 2,129 Demand/Supply 0.698 0.716 0.736 0.738 0.741 0.744 0.746 0.753 0.751 0.749 0.747 0.738F02 - Writing, translating and public relations professionals Demand Projection 9,928 10,081 10,258 10,454 10,614 10,744 10,864 11,017 11,143 11,228 11,368 Supply Projection 10,246 10,484 10,737 10,993 11,239 11,480 11,702 11,932 12,145 12,338 12,529 Demand/Supply 0.969 0.962 0.955 0.951 0.944 0.936 0.928 0.923 0.917 0.910 0.907 0.937

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016F03 - Creative and performing artists Demand Projection 9,732 9,861 10,047 10,260 10,423 10,568 10,706 10,883 11,014 11,108 11,276 Supply Projection 9,868 9,896 10,014 10,159 10,277 10,448 10,596 10,784 10,943 11,079 11,237 Demand/Supply* 0.986 0.996 1.003 1.010 1.014 1.011 1.010 1.009 1.007 1.003 1.003 1.005F11 - Technical occupations in libraries, archives, museums and art galleries Demand Projection 2,627 2,674 2,739 2,812 2,867 2,915 2,958 3,014 3,056 3,083 3,136 Supply Projection 2,381 2,224 2,125 2,106 2,099 2,152 2,182 2,245 2,291 2,322 2,380 Demand/Supply 1.103 1.203 1.289 1.335 1.366 1.354 1.356 1.342 1.334 1.328 1.318 1.303F12 - Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical occupations Demand Projection 3,376 3,465 3,561 3,667 3,752 3,821 3,873 3,937 3,995 4,029 4,088 Supply Projection 3,389 3,414 3,434 3,536 3,616 3,679 3,700 3,766 3,827 3,863 3,928 Demand/Supply 0.996 1.015 1.037 1.037 1.038 1.039 1.047 1.045 1.044 1.043 1.041 1.035F13 - Announcers and other performers Demand Projection 1,647 1,678 1,721 1,764 1,799 1,826 1,851 1,883 1,907 1,921 1,950 Supply Projection 1,658 1,602 1,597 1,604 1,610 1,640 1,654 1,684 1,705 1,718 1,744 Demand/Supply 0.993 1.047 1.078 1.100 1.117 1.113 1.119 1.118 1.119 1.118 1.118 1.095F14 - Creative designers and craftspersons Demand Projection 8,629 8,837 9,033 9,255 9,444 9,618 9,766 9,924 10,092 10,238 10,383 Supply Projection 8,732 8,902 9,085 9,262 9,370 9,538 9,696 9,842 9,988 10,109 10,222 Demand/Supply 0.988 0.993 0.994 0.999 1.008 1.008 1.007 1.008 1.010 1.013 1.016 1.004F15 - Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations Demand Projection 11,840 11,986 12,174 12,380 12,539 12,679 12,812 12,984 13,112 13,201 13,361 Supply Projection 11,851 11,870 11,946 12,041 12,116 12,206 12,295 12,386 12,455 12,510 12,573 Demand/Supply 0.999 1.010 1.019 1.028 1.035 1.039 1.042 1.048 1.053 1.055 1.063 1.036G01 - Sales and service supervisors Demand Projection 30,190 30,567 30,969 31,407 31,781 32,130 32,463 32,849 33,208 33,533 33,880 Supply Projection 30,728 30,941 31,139 31,322 31,509 31,691 31,839 31,951 32,029 32,078 32,099 Demand/Supply 0.983 0.988 0.995 1.003 1.009 1.014 1.020 1.028 1.037 1.045 1.055 1.016G11 - Sales representatives, wholesale trade Demand Projection 22,647 23,112 23,605 24,143 24,617 25,043 25,435 25,882 26,312 26,697 27,085 Supply Projection 23,495 23,872 24,224 24,558 24,876 25,187 25,483 25,775 26,053 26,310 26,552 Demand/Supply 0.964 0.968 0.974 0.983 0.990 0.994 0.998 1.004 1.010 1.015 1.020 0.993

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016G12 - Technical sales specialists, wholesale trade Demand Projection 15,331 15,539 15,774 16,022 16,254 16,448 16,667 16,925 17,160 17,373 17,592 Supply Projection 15,706 15,901 16,078 16,242 16,392 16,538 16,674 16,802 16,922 17,029 17,128 Demand/Supply* 0.976 0.977 0.981 0.986 0.992 0.995 1.000 1.007 1.014 1.020 1.027 0.998G13 - Insurance and real estate sales occupations and buyers Demand Projection 18,968 19,329 19,644 20,038 20,400 20,783 21,103 21,409 21,703 21,955 22,201 Supply Projection 19,213 19,609 19,979 20,334 20,674 21,006 21,318 21,617 21,898 22,154 22,392 Demand/Supply 0.987 0.986 0.983 0.985 0.987 0.989 0.990 0.990 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.988G21 - Retail salespersons and sales clerks Demand Projection 60,585 62,708 64,908 67,350 69,430 71,327 72,837 74,627 76,337 77,830 79,341 Supply Projection 63,612 65,808 67,743 69,516 70,832 71,892 72,585 73,362 73,977 74,360 74,722 Demand/Supply 0.952 0.953 0.958 0.969 0.980 0.992 1.003 1.017 1.032 1.047 1.062 0.997G31 - Cashiers Demand Projection 32,855 33,727 34,659 35,681 36,545 37,330 37,979 38,760 39,486 40,120 40,784 Supply Projection 34,899 35,615 36,258 36,834 37,275 37,709 37,918 37,960 37,895 37,771 37,569 Demand/Supply 0.941 0.947 0.956 0.969 0.980 0.990 1.002 1.021 1.042 1.062 1.086 1.000G41 - Chefs and cooks Demand Projection 24,505 25,030 25,676 26,319 26,857 27,399 27,932 28,561 29,089 29,603 30,181 Supply Projection 26,548 27,361 28,187 28,928 29,503 30,062 30,539 30,989 31,314 31,627 31,988 Demand/Supply 0.923 0.915 0.911 0.910 0.910 0.911 0.915 0.922 0.929 0.936 0.944 0.920G51 - Occupations in food and beverage service Demand Projection 32,959 33,657 34,529 35,369 36,093 36,821 37,527 38,337 39,025 39,689 40,437 Supply Projection 33,896 34,524 35,173 35,712 36,191 36,664 37,148 37,476 37,592 37,631 37,662 Demand/Supply 0.972 0.975 0.982 0.990 0.997 1.004 1.010 1.023 1.038 1.055 1.074 1.011G61 - Police officers and fire-fighters Demand Projection 9,218 9,424 9,567 9,743 9,916 10,106 10,297 10,518 10,691 10,870 11,072 Supply Projection 9,240 9,466 9,661 9,901 10,133 10,373 10,622 10,891 11,109 11,326 11,538 Demand/Supply 0.998 0.996 0.990 0.984 0.979 0.974 0.969 0.966 0.962 0.960 0.960 0.976G62 - Other occupations in protective service Demand Projection 2,867 3,119 3,294 3,519 3,731 3,959 4,156 4,387 4,572 4,755 4,963 Supply Projection 3,636 4,484 4,932 5,449 5,788 6,185 6,370 6,607 6,720 6,850 7,040 Demand/Supply 0.789 0.696 0.668 0.646 0.645 0.640 0.652 0.664 0.680 0.694 0.705 0.680

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016G63 - Security guards and related occupations Demand Projection 7,859 8,050 8,192 8,377 8,542 8,692 8,811 8,938 9,081 9,209 9,333 Supply Projection 8,166 8,333 8,486 8,623 8,821 8,976 9,163 9,336 9,512 9,667 9,812 Demand/Supply* 0.962 0.966 0.965 0.971 0.968 0.968 0.962 0.957 0.955 0.953 0.951 0.962G71 - Occupations in travel and accommodation Demand Projection 12,624 12,771 12,889 13,140 13,416 13,657 13,870 14,112 14,339 14,530 14,755 Supply Projection 12,834 12,676 12,628 12,709 12,816 12,915 12,989 13,129 13,245 13,332 13,411 Demand/Supply 0.984 1.008 1.021 1.034 1.047 1.057 1.068 1.075 1.083 1.090 1.100 1.051G72 - Tour and recreational guides and casino occupations Demand Projection 2,300 2,375 2,472 2,575 2,658 2,720 2,769 2,835 2,884 2,905 2,963 Supply Projection 2,054 1,804 1,709 1,655 1,631 1,585 1,517 1,550 1,562 1,541 1,579 Demand/Supply 1.120 1.316 1.446 1.556 1.630 1.716 1.826 1.829 1.847 1.884 1.876 1.641G73 - Other occupations in travel, accommodation, amusement and recreation Demand Projection 3,918 3,990 4,084 4,188 4,275 4,346 4,407 4,485 4,545 4,579 4,650 Supply Projection 4,577 4,650 4,714 4,794 4,861 4,922 4,978 5,025 5,064 5,099 5,147 Demand/Supply 0.856 0.858 0.866 0.873 0.879 0.883 0.885 0.893 0.898 0.898 0.903 0.881G81 - Childcare and home support workers Demand Projection 23,442 24,017 24,743 25,672 26,286 26,940 27,561 28,409 29,060 29,674 30,489 Supply Projection 25,201 26,476 27,594 28,702 29,255 29,906 30,474 31,131 31,445 31,671 32,081 Demand/Supply 0.930 0.907 0.897 0.894 0.898 0.901 0.904 0.913 0.924 0.937 0.950 0.914G91 - Technical occupations in personal service Demand Projection 11,939 12,138 12,430 12,722 12,943 13,097 13,224 13,404 13,528 13,554 13,715 Supply Projection 11,969 11,955 12,065 12,226 12,359 12,483 12,589 12,773 12,915 12,997 13,145 Demand/Supply 0.998 1.015 1.030 1.041 1.047 1.049 1.050 1.049 1.048 1.043 1.043 1.038G92 - Other occupations in personal service Demand Projection 5,797 5,890 6,013 6,140 6,240 6,316 6,380 6,465 6,532 6,564 6,639 Supply Projection 5,772 5,846 5,915 5,981 6,042 6,104 6,154 6,193 6,218 6,231 6,237 Demand/Supply 1.004 1.008 1.016 1.027 1.033 1.035 1.037 1.044 1.050 1.053 1.065 1.034G93 - Cleaners Demand Projection 42,916 44,092 45,156 46,438 47,510 48,554 49,440 50,421 51,400 52,312 53,270 Supply Projection 45,114 46,717 47,828 48,901 49,720 50,419 50,969 51,413 51,761 51,971 52,157 Demand/Supply 0.951 0.944 0.944 0.950 0.956 0.963 0.970 0.981 0.993 1.007 1.021 0.971

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016G94 - Butchers and bakers, retail and wholesale Demand Projection 8,329 8,533 8,757 9,003 9,213 9,405 9,571 9,771 9,957 10,121 10,285 Supply Projection 8,790 8,875 8,970 9,061 9,156 9,260 9,343 9,423 9,488 9,539 9,581 Demand/Supply* 0.947 0.961 0.976 0.994 1.006 1.016 1.024 1.037 1.049 1.061 1.073 1.013G96 - Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations Demand Projection 24,357 25,014 25,820 26,632 27,294 27,969 28,611 29,380 30,026 30,654 31,361 Supply Projection 28,220 29,895 31,176 32,177 32,828 33,431 33,877 34,157 34,242 34,337 34,505 Demand/Supply 0.863 0.837 0.828 0.828 0.831 0.837 0.845 0.860 0.877 0.893 0.909 0.855G97 - Other sales and related occupations Demand Projection 25,917 26,810 27,724 28,745 29,612 30,392 31,007 31,746 32,458 33,081 33,708 Supply Projection 26,707 26,961 27,313 27,791 28,050 28,326 28,498 28,798 29,057 29,263 29,488 Demand/Supply 0.970 0.994 1.015 1.034 1.056 1.073 1.088 1.102 1.117 1.130 1.143 1.066G98 - Other elemental service occupations Demand Projection 5,359 5,484 5,644 5,818 5,950 6,060 6,152 6,276 6,372 6,430 6,539 Supply Projection 4,984 4,657 4,558 4,510 4,488 4,467 4,390 4,433 4,448 4,433 4,466 Demand/Supply 1.075 1.178 1.238 1.290 1.326 1.357 1.401 1.416 1.433 1.450 1.464 1.330H01 - Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers Demand Projection 35,183 35,781 36,270 36,349 36,438 36,793 37,190 37,056 37,330 37,865 38,228 Supply Projection 35,562 35,796 36,001 36,187 36,372 36,550 36,728 36,914 37,101 37,283 37,466 Demand/Supply 0.989 1.000 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.007 1.013 1.004 1.006 1.016 1.020 1.006H02 - Supervisors, railway and motor transportation occupations Demand Projection 4,786 4,792 4,794 4,832 4,887 4,930 4,978 5,032 5,081 5,120 5,171 Supply Projection 4,732 4,759 4,781 4,801 4,820 4,839 4,857 4,876 4,896 4,915 4,935 Demand/Supply 1.011 1.007 1.003 1.007 1.014 1.019 1.025 1.032 1.038 1.042 1.048 1.022H11 - Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters Demand Projection 14,445 14,892 15,251 15,234 15,254 15,490 15,785 15,641 15,828 16,257 16,528 Supply Projection 14,823 14,934 15,041 15,115 15,194 15,300 15,413 15,472 15,568 15,689 15,780 Demand/Supply 0.975 0.997 1.014 1.008 1.004 1.012 1.024 1.011 1.017 1.036 1.047 1.013H12 - Carpenters and cabinetmakers Demand Projection 17,014 17,852 18,479 18,417 18,335 18,751 19,107 18,550 18,705 19,307 19,595 Supply Projection 17,552 18,195 18,565 18,223 18,022 18,311 18,522 17,845 17,969 18,492 18,618 Demand/Supply 0.969 0.981 0.995 1.011 1.017 1.024 1.032 1.039 1.041 1.044 1.053 1.019

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016H13 - Masonry and plastering trades Demand Projection 8,351 8,789 9,096 9,003 8,906 9,097 9,250 8,874 8,911 9,210 9,331 Supply Projection 8,729 9,132 9,369 9,327 9,375 9,673 9,895 9,734 9,938 10,335 10,556 Demand/Supply* 0.957 0.962 0.971 0.965 0.950 0.940 0.935 0.912 0.897 0.891 0.884 0.933H14 - Other construction trades Demand Projection 13,714 14,375 14,854 14,770 14,677 14,985 15,245 14,762 14,859 15,321 15,537 Supply Projection 14,211 14,613 14,898 14,820 14,887 15,262 15,561 15,397 15,725 16,311 16,657 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.984 0.997 0.997 0.986 0.982 0.980 0.959 0.945 0.939 0.933 0.970H21 - Electrical trades and telecommunications occupations Demand Projection 18,337 19,081 19,710 19,824 19,927 20,344 20,761 20,544 20,808 21,379 21,765 Supply Projection 19,128 19,797 20,226 20,150 20,130 20,384 20,612 20,242 20,383 20,758 20,897 Demand/Supply 0.959 0.964 0.975 0.984 0.990 0.998 1.007 1.015 1.021 1.030 1.042 0.998H22 - Stationary engineers and power station and system operators Demand Projection 3,247 3,291 3,347 3,402 3,462 3,507 3,582 3,674 3,748 3,825 3,900 Supply Projection 3,211 3,229 3,250 3,270 3,287 3,306 3,326 3,347 3,364 3,378 3,391 Demand/Supply 1.011 1.019 1.030 1.040 1.053 1.061 1.077 1.098 1.114 1.132 1.150 1.071H31 - Machinists and related occupations Demand Projection 5,572 5,666 5,799 5,945 6,078 6,194 6,328 6,489 6,630 6,749 6,866 Supply Projection 5,512 5,701 5,775 5,841 5,907 5,964 6,024 6,097 6,150 6,194 6,239 Demand/Supply 1.011 0.994 1.004 1.018 1.029 1.039 1.050 1.064 1.078 1.090 1.101 1.043H32 - Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades Demand Projection 25,362 26,002 26,716 27,162 27,598 28,115 28,738 29,119 29,670 30,318 30,897 Supply Projection 25,751 25,893 26,118 26,217 26,328 26,557 26,825 26,954 27,208 27,515 27,763 Demand/Supply 0.985 1.004 1.023 1.036 1.048 1.059 1.071 1.080 1.090 1.102 1.113 1.056H41 - Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics Demand Projection 20,695 21,129 21,609 22,028 22,524 22,980 23,574 24,111 24,669 25,264 25,852 Supply Projection 21,170 21,565 21,948 22,186 22,406 22,609 22,860 23,027 23,183 23,344 23,490 Demand/Supply 0.978 0.980 0.985 0.993 1.005 1.016 1.031 1.047 1.064 1.082 1.101 1.026H42 - Automotive service technicians Demand Projection 17,807 18,202 18,687 19,232 19,700 20,076 20,395 20,795 21,126 21,335 21,689 Supply Projection 18,362 18,507 18,715 18,937 19,041 19,152 19,225 19,368 19,471 19,520 19,665 Demand/Supply 0.970 0.984 0.998 1.016 1.035 1.048 1.061 1.074 1.085 1.093 1.103 1.042

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016H43 - Other mechanics Demand Projection 2,666 2,729 2,798 2,862 2,916 2,969 3,014 3,055 3,100 3,140 3,187 Supply Projection 2,598 2,615 2,631 2,645 2,655 2,671 2,698 2,720 2,744 2,767 2,793 Demand/Supply* 1.026 1.044 1.063 1.082 1.098 1.111 1.117 1.123 1.129 1.135 1.141 1.097H51 - Upholsterers, tailors, shoe repairers, jewellers and related occupations Demand Projection 2,454 2,529 2,625 2,730 2,815 2,887 2,951 3,031 3,099 3,145 3,207 Supply Projection 2,487 2,584 2,677 2,740 2,775 2,829 2,870 2,916 2,942 2,943 2,962 Demand/Supply 0.987 0.979 0.981 0.996 1.014 1.020 1.028 1.040 1.053 1.069 1.083 1.023H52 - Printing press operators, commercial divers and other trades Demand Projection 3,546 3,610 3,687 3,769 3,837 3,899 3,961 4,031 4,095 4,148 4,204 Supply Projection 3,633 3,692 3,762 3,824 3,899 3,967 4,042 4,112 4,176 4,233 4,291 Demand/Supply 0.976 0.978 0.980 0.986 0.984 0.983 0.980 0.980 0.981 0.980 0.980 0.981H53 - Other installers, repairers and servicers Demand Projection 8,875 9,166 9,434 9,605 9,753 9,959 10,148 10,212 10,377 10,596 10,779 Supply Projection 8,937 9,136 9,328 9,459 9,565 9,729 9,878 9,960 10,123 10,325 10,501 Demand/Supply 0.993 1.003 1.011 1.015 1.020 1.024 1.027 1.025 1.025 1.026 1.026 1.018H61 - Heavy equipment operators Demand Projection 16,467 17,007 17,454 17,437 17,551 17,869 18,372 18,377 18,739 19,411 19,895 Supply Projection 17,473 17,641 17,742 17,544 17,555 17,737 18,037 18,019 18,271 18,697 18,949 Demand/Supply 0.942 0.964 0.984 0.994 1.000 1.007 1.019 1.020 1.026 1.038 1.050 1.004H62 - Crane operators, drillers and blasters Demand Projection 1,890 1,966 2,035 2,037 2,059 2,105 2,180 2,191 2,248 2,346 2,417 Supply Projection 2,059 2,164 2,196 2,186 2,193 2,224 2,259 2,210 2,218 2,250 2,250 Demand/Supply 0.918 0.909 0.926 0.932 0.939 0.947 0.965 0.991 1.013 1.043 1.074 0.969H71 - Motor vehicle and transit drivers Demand Projection 56,070 56,624 57,035 58,655 60,778 62,553 64,270 66,141 67,847 69,273 71,072 Supply Projection 58,161 59,038 59,782 61,475 63,381 64,851 66,149 67,602 68,922 70,058 71,475 Demand/Supply 0.964 0.959 0.954 0.954 0.959 0.965 0.972 0.978 0.984 0.989 0.994 0.970H72 - Train crew operating occupations Demand Projection 797 801 798 846 913 966 1,010 1,063 1,107 1,138 1,185 Supply Projection 973 1,142 1,256 1,402 1,529 1,582 1,633 1,667 1,688 1,694 1,720 Demand/Supply 0.819 0.701 0.635 0.604 0.597 0.611 0.619 0.637 0.656 0.672 0.689 0.658

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016H73 - Other transport equipment operators and related workers Demand Projection 2,007 2,019 2,021 2,090 2,181 2,257 2,321 2,394 2,460 2,507 2,575 Supply Projection 2,032 2,015 2,008 2,045 2,099 2,147 2,181 2,223 2,263 2,291 2,333 Demand/Supply* 0.988 1.002 1.007 1.022 1.039 1.051 1.064 1.077 1.087 1.094 1.104 1.049H81 - Longshore workers and material handlers Demand Projection 19,494 19,902 20,321 20,885 21,443 21,947 22,414 22,926 23,420 23,858 24,317 Supply Projection 20,635 20,932 21,269 21,640 22,044 22,403 22,788 23,155 23,498 23,813 24,147 Demand/Supply 0.945 0.951 0.955 0.965 0.973 0.980 0.984 0.990 0.997 1.002 1.007 0.977H82 - Trades helpers and labourers Demand Projection 18,445 19,265 19,869 19,789 19,722 20,121 20,496 19,981 20,158 20,782 21,103 Supply Projection 20,007 20,193 20,214 19,820 19,596 19,861 20,028 19,528 19,679 20,172 20,311 Demand/Supply 0.922 0.954 0.983 0.998 1.006 1.013 1.023 1.023 1.024 1.030 1.039 1.002H83 - Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. Demand Projection 2,059 2,142 2,203 2,289 2,380 2,473 2,551 2,619 2,695 2,771 2,852 Supply Projection 2,556 2,911 3,119 3,308 3,464 3,622 3,745 3,805 3,881 3,961 4,047 Demand/Supply 0.805 0.736 0.706 0.692 0.687 0.683 0.681 0.688 0.694 0.700 0.705 0.707I01 - Contractors, operators and supervisors in agri. and horticulture Demand Projection 47,778 48,188 48,323 48,664 48,759 48,851 48,916 49,136 49,166 49,118 49,112 Supply Projection 50,160 52,372 53,648 54,789 55,712 56,686 57,667 58,689 59,471 60,130 60,846 Demand/Supply 0.953 0.920 0.901 0.888 0.875 0.862 0.848 0.837 0.827 0.817 0.807 0.867I02 - Agriculture and horticulture workers Demand Projection 11,211 11,384 11,443 11,589 11,626 11,664 11,674 11,753 11,746 11,707 11,683 Supply Projection 13,461 14,901 15,685 16,460 16,891 17,323 17,532 17,814 17,889 17,932 18,047 Demand/Supply 0.833 0.764 0.730 0.704 0.688 0.673 0.666 0.660 0.657 0.653 0.647 0.698I11 - Supervisors, logging and forestry Demand Projection 242 247 251 254 257 260 263 265 267 270 273 Supply Projection 208 232 251 262 270 279 289 296 302 309 315 Demand/Supply 1.164 1.064 1.000 0.970 0.951 0.932 0.910 0.895 0.885 0.875 0.865 0.956I12 - Supervisors, mining, oil and gas Demand Projection 12,177 12,173 12,260 12,237 12,409 12,439 12,828 13,307 13,670 14,093 14,503 Supply Projection 12,295 12,375 12,441 12,496 12,551 12,596 12,637 12,678 12,712 12,739 12,761 Demand/Supply 0.990 0.984 0.985 0.979 0.989 0.988 1.015 1.050 1.075 1.106 1.136 1.027

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016I13 - Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related workers Demand Projection 21,301 21,269 21,356 21,314 21,509 21,527 21,995 22,585 23,023 23,528 24,021 Supply Projection 21,756 21,804 21,845 21,873 21,901 21,914 21,921 21,913 21,890 21,857 21,814 Demand/Supply* 0.979 0.975 0.978 0.974 0.982 0.982 1.003 1.031 1.052 1.076 1.101 1.012I14 - Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling Demand Projection 7,787 7,753 7,839 7,793 7,984 8,000 8,438 8,993 9,399 9,873 10,336 Supply Projection 8,206 8,309 8,426 8,535 8,659 8,769 8,879 8,973 9,056 9,141 9,225 Demand/Supply 0.949 0.933 0.930 0.913 0.922 0.912 0.950 1.002 1.038 1.080 1.120 0.977I15 - Logging machinery operators Demand Projection 747 759 768 775 780 788 798 803 811 820 828 Supply Projection 803 839 868 890 911 938 970 995 1,020 1,048 1,075 Demand/Supply 0.931 0.904 0.884 0.870 0.856 0.840 0.822 0.807 0.795 0.783 0.770 0.842I16 - Logging and forestry workers Demand Projection 1,074 1,091 1,103 1,114 1,123 1,133 1,145 1,157 1,167 1,179 1,190 Supply Projection 1,182 1,256 1,314 1,353 1,386 1,423 1,474 1,514 1,548 1,585 1,622 Demand/Supply 0.908 0.869 0.839 0.823 0.810 0.796 0.777 0.764 0.754 0.744 0.734 0.802I17 - Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen Demand Projection 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 49 50 Supply Projection 40 44 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Demand/Supply 1.128 1.051 1.005 0.989 0.983 0.976 0.961 0.950 0.944 0.936 0.926 0.986I18 - Other fishing and trapping occupations Demand Projection 67 68 68 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70 Supply Projection 62 71 78 82 84 86 88 90 90 90 91 Demand/Supply 1.088 0.954 0.878 0.843 0.825 0.810 0.792 0.781 0.779 0.777 0.774 0.846I21 - Primary production labourers Demand Projection 11,638 11,944 12,321 12,588 13,064 13,339 14,001 14,783 15,426 16,118 16,820 Supply Projection 13,372 13,782 14,156 14,265 14,618 14,747 15,478 16,170 16,488 16,841 17,173 Demand/Supply 0.870 0.867 0.870 0.882 0.894 0.904 0.905 0.914 0.936 0.957 0.979 0.907J01 - Supervisors, processing occupations Demand Projection 7,586 7,672 7,798 7,916 8,054 8,159 8,340 8,553 8,735 8,913 9,082 Supply Projection 7,569 7,630 7,683 7,733 7,785 7,836 7,890 7,948 8,006 8,063 8,122 Demand/Supply 1.002 1.005 1.015 1.024 1.035 1.041 1.057 1.076 1.091 1.105 1.118 1.052

Appendix 1



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016J02 - Supervisors, assembly and fabrication Demand Projection 4,255 4,296 4,351 4,413 4,465 4,514 4,569 4,634 4,693 4,742 4,789 Supply Projection 4,222 4,241 4,258 4,274 4,291 4,311 4,331 4,351 4,370 4,388 4,406 Demand/Supply* 1.008 1.013 1.022 1.032 1.040 1.047 1.055 1.065 1.074 1.081 1.087 1.048J11 - Central control and process operators in manufacturing and processing Demand Projection 6,703 6,710 6,835 6,866 7,093 7,161 7,589 8,137 8,543 8,993 9,435 Supply Projection 6,570 6,405 6,386 6,324 6,483 6,490 6,800 7,158 7,319 7,490 7,636 Demand/Supply 1.020 1.048 1.070 1.086 1.094 1.103 1.116 1.137 1.167 1.201 1.236 1.116J12 - Machine operators and related workers in metal and mineral products Demand Projection 3,558 3,619 3,692 3,745 3,801 3,859 3,940 4,010 4,087 4,173 4,245 Supply Projection 3,589 3,596 3,616 3,643 3,673 3,708 3,750 3,794 3,839 3,886 3,931 Demand/Supply 0.991 1.006 1.021 1.028 1.035 1.041 1.051 1.057 1.065 1.074 1.080 1.041J13 - Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber Demand Projection 4,559 4,627 4,709 4,805 4,887 4,961 5,041 5,139 5,225 5,299 5,370 Supply Projection 4,504 4,524 4,547 4,572 4,597 4,627 4,661 4,692 4,721 4,748 4,774 Demand/Supply 1.012 1.023 1.036 1.051 1.063 1.072 1.082 1.095 1.107 1.116 1.125 1.071J14 - Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production Demand Projection 2,138 2,197 2,280 2,375 2,455 2,530 2,607 2,701 2,784 2,852 2,914 Supply Projection 2,450 2,680 2,847 2,993 3,100 3,197 3,284 3,358 3,415 3,459 3,502 Demand/Supply 0.873 0.820 0.801 0.794 0.792 0.791 0.794 0.804 0.815 0.825 0.832 0.813J15 - Machine operators and related workers in textile processing Demand Projection 659 674 694 716 734 751 767 788 806 820 834 Supply Projection 532 385 299 229 208 195 183 195 199 200 202 Demand/Supply 1.240 1.751 2.321 3.132 3.532 3.857 4.204 4.042 4.051 4.096 4.130 3.305J16 - Machine operators and related workers in fabric, fur and leather products Demand Projection 2,069 2,118 2,184 2,258 2,319 2,375 2,431 2,499 2,559 2,607 2,654 Supply Projection 2,162 2,205 2,238 2,264 2,308 2,338 2,358 2,369 2,367 2,345 2,318 Demand/Supply 0.957 0.961 0.976 0.997 1.005 1.016 1.031 1.055 1.081 1.111 1.145 1.030J17 - Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and tobacco Demand Projection 8,263 8,375 8,535 8,719 8,872 9,014 9,168 9,357 9,522 9,657 9,782 Supply Projection 8,308 8,412 8,514 8,614 8,724 8,834 8,941 9,042 9,137 9,231 9,323 Demand/Supply 0.995 0.996 1.002 1.012 1.017 1.020 1.025 1.035 1.042 1.046 1.049 1.022



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016J18 - Printing machine operators and related occupations Demand Projection 1,743 1,819 1,911 2,013 2,099 2,176 2,244 2,327 2,402 2,461 2,524 Supply Projection 1,867 2,056 2,231 2,377 2,451 2,496 2,539 2,585 2,613 2,616 2,630 Demand/Supply* 0.934 0.885 0.856 0.847 0.856 0.872 0.884 0.900 0.920 0.941 0.959 0.896J19 - Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators Demand Projection 4,336 4,407 4,499 4,594 4,676 4,756 4,845 4,942 5,035 5,118 5,194 Supply Projection 4,458 4,510 4,560 4,605 4,654 4,701 4,747 4,795 4,843 4,891 4,941 Demand/Supply 0.973 0.977 0.987 0.998 1.005 1.012 1.020 1.031 1.040 1.046 1.051 1.013J21 - Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers Demand Projection 4,691 4,786 4,911 5,048 5,167 5,276 5,393 5,530 5,654 5,759 5,858 Supply Projection 4,638 4,645 4,693 4,768 4,822 4,878 4,910 4,982 5,036 5,073 5,105 Demand/Supply 1.011 1.030 1.046 1.059 1.072 1.082 1.098 1.110 1.123 1.135 1.148 1.083J22 - Other assembly and related occupations Demand Projection 6,750 6,941 7,177 7,415 7,617 7,819 8,019 8,225 8,433 8,620 8,790 Supply Projection 7,440 7,747 8,064 8,341 8,559 8,754 8,964 9,153 9,335 9,506 9,661 Demand/Supply 0.907 0.896 0.890 0.889 0.890 0.893 0.895 0.899 0.903 0.907 0.910 0.898J31 - Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities Demand Projection 13,670 14,035 14,515 15,052 15,519 15,944 16,386 16,918 17,394 17,796 18,172 Supply Projection 14,238 14,394 14,693 15,098 15,399 15,681 15,932 16,274 16,519 16,678 16,822 Demand/Supply 0.960 0.975 0.988 0.997 1.008 1.017 1.029 1.040 1.053 1.067 1.080 1.019

Results of Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply for Selected NOC 4 Digit Occupations, 2006-2016


Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016A014-Senior Managers - Health Education Social and Community Services etc. Demand Projection 252 253 255 256 258 259 261 263 265 268 270 Supply Projection 665 727 863 955 1,048 1,126 1,189 1,248 1,305 1,353 1,400 Demand/Supply* 0.378 0.348 0.295 0.268 0.246 0.230 0.220 0.211 0.203 0.198 0.193 0.254A016-Senior Managers - Goods Production Utilities Transportation and Construction Demand Projection 1,505 1,509 1,514 1,518 1,523 1,527 1,535 1,543 1,550 1,558 1,566 Supply Projection 2,334 3,054 3,584 3,926 4,263 4,528 4,733 4,911 5,081 5,211 5,336 Demand/Supply 0.645 0.494 0.422 0.387 0.357 0.337 0.324 0.314 0.305 0.299 0.293 0.380A121-Engineering Managers Demand Projection 2,649 2,697 2,746 2,790 2,849 2,894 2,967 3,044 3,119 3,198 3,271 Supply Projection 2,700 2,617 2,612 2,629 2,653 2,693 2,736 2,775 2,837 2,895 2,950 Demand/Supply 0.981 1.030 1.051 1.061 1.074 1.075 1.085 1.097 1.099 1.104 1.109 1.070A321-Managers in Health Care Demand Projection 2,842 2,892 2,946 3,016 3,054 3,099 3,144 3,212 3,267 3,323 3,387 Supply Projection 2,800 3,509 3,587 3,662 3,736 3,794 3,861 3,919 3,981 4,030 4,076 Demand/Supply 1.015 0.824 0.821 0.824 0.818 0.817 0.814 0.820 0.821 0.825 0.831 0.839A371-Construction Managers Demand Projection 8,487 8,990 9,350 9,271 9,204 9,437 9,649 9,292 9,378 9,753 9,933 Supply Projection 8,200 8,205 8,209 8,199 8,165 8,133 8,114 8,093 8,043 8,018 8,001 Demand/Supply 1.035 1.096 1.139 1.131 1.127 1.160 1.189 1.148 1.166 1.216 1.241 1.150A372-Residential Home Builders and Renovators Demand Projection 11,413 11,563 11,667 11,634 11,600 11,665 11,733 11,619 11,647 11,765 11,822 Supply Projection 11,400 11,742 12,092 12,432 12,743 13,066 13,418 13,775 14,092 14,461 14,853 Demand/Supply 1.001 0.985 0.965 0.936 0.910 0.893 0.874 0.843 0.827 0.814 0.796 0.895B213-Medical Secretaries Demand Projection 2,270 2,337 2,410 2,505 2,557 2,617 2,674 2,763 2,834 2,906 2,990 Supply Projection 2,200 2,526 2,867 3,098 3,283 3,411 3,534 3,637 3,712 3,781 3,849 Demand/Supply 1.032 0.925 0.841 0.809 0.779 0.767 0.757 0.760 0.764 0.769 0.777 0.816C013-Geologists Geochemists and Geophysicists Demand Projection 6,464 6,495 6,570 6,595 6,736 6,779 7,031 7,351 7,596 7,870 8,137 Supply Projection 6,600 6,089 6,246 6,420 6,578 6,771 6,917 7,167 7,418 7,607 7,792 Demand/Supply 0.979 1.067 1.052 1.027 1.024 1.001 1.017 1.026 1.024 1.035 1.044 1.027

Results of Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply for Selected NOC 4 Digit Occupations, 2006-2016 (Cont.)



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016C031-Civil Engineers Demand Projection 8,830 8,997 9,116 9,219 9,324 9,442 9,562 9,637 9,759 9,904 10,025 Supply Projection 8,800 8,148 8,334 8,484 8,629 8,758 8,875 8,987 9,078 9,161 9,231 Demand/Supply* 1.003 1.104 1.094 1.087 1.080 1.078 1.077 1.072 1.075 1.081 1.086 1.076C032-Mechanical Engineers Demand Projection 3,489 3,575 3,663 3,748 3,842 3,920 4,027 4,143 4,254 4,369 4,475 Supply Projection 3,400 4,516 4,502 4,468 4,430 4,383 4,329 4,274 4,208 4,140 4,066 Demand/Supply 1.026 0.792 0.814 0.839 0.867 0.894 0.930 0.969 1.011 1.055 1.101 0.936C034-Chemical Engineers Demand Projection 1,449 1,495 1,546 1,597 1,656 1,702 1,768 1,844 1,913 1,982 2,046 Supply Projection 1,993 1,897 1,922 1,939 1,955 1,966 1,974 1,981 1,983 1,983 1,980 Demand/Supply 0.727 0.788 0.804 0.823 0.847 0.866 0.896 0.931 0.965 1.000 1.034 0.880C045-Petroleum Engineers Demand Projection 7,676 7,693 7,776 7,794 7,958 8,003 8,312 8,705 9,002 9,335 9,660 Supply Projection 7,600 7,181 7,009 6,924 6,911 7,002 6,977 7,167 7,379 7,520 7,658 Demand/Supply 1.010 1.071 1.109 1.126 1.152 1.143 1.191 1.215 1.220 1.241 1.261 1.158C054-Land Surveyors Demand Projection 2,448 2,505 2,541 2,585 2,625 2,664 2,692 2,715 2,750 2,786 2,814 Supply Projection 2,400 2,845 2,814 2,776 2,741 2,707 2,670 2,639 2,604 2,570 2,534 Demand/Supply 1.020 0.881 0.903 0.931 0.958 0.984 1.008 1.029 1.056 1.084 1.111 0.997C151-Architectural Technologists and Technicians Demand Projection 653 679 698 720 738 757 771 781 797 814 827 Supply Projection 646 831 840 848 854 861 866 869 872 875 876 Demand/Supply 1.010 0.817 0.831 0.849 0.864 0.880 0.890 0.899 0.914 0.930 0.944 0.893C152-Industrial Designers Demand Projection 9,762 9,905 10,079 10,322 10,486 10,678 10,875 11,131 11,329 11,538 11,787 Supply Projection 10,113 10,388 10,658 10,927 11,150 11,404 11,633 11,876 12,081 12,279 12,483 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.954 0.946 0.945 0.940 0.936 0.935 0.937 0.938 0.940 0.944 0.944C153-Drafting Technologists and Technicians Demand Projection 9,762 9,905 10,079 10,322 10,486 10,678 10,875 11,131 11,329 11,538 11,787 Supply Projection 10,113 10,388 10,658 10,927 11,150 11,404 11,633 11,876 12,081 12,279 12,483 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.954 0.946 0.945 0.940 0.936 0.935 0.937 0.938 0.940 0.944 0.944




Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016C154-Land Survey Technologists and Technicians Demand Projection 9,762 9,905 10,079 10,322 10,486 10,678 10,875 11,131 11,329 11,538 11,787 Supply Projection 10,113 10,388 10,658 10,927 11,150 11,404 11,633 11,876 12,081 12,279 12,483 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.954 0.946 0.945 0.940 0.936 0.935 0.937 0.938 0.940 0.944 0.944C155-Mapping and related technologists and technicians Demand Projection 9,762 9,905 10,079 10,322 10,486 10,678 10,875 11,131 11,329 11,538 11,787 Supply Projection 10,113 10,388 10,658 10,927 11,150 11,404 11,633 11,876 12,081 12,279 12,483 Demand/Supply 0.965 0.954 0.946 0.945 0.940 0.936 0.935 0.937 0.938 0.940 0.944 0.944C111-Chemical Technologists and Technicians Demand Projection 2,040 2,097 2,160 2,229 2,303 2,362 2,442 2,538 2,621 2,703 2,780 Supply Projection 2,131 2,211 2,236 2,256 2,264 2,296 2,287 2,315 2,337 2,338 2,336 Demand/Supply 0.957 0.948 0.966 0.988 1.017 1.029 1.067 1.096 1.122 1.156 1.190 1.049C112-Geological and Mineral Technologists and Technicians Demand Projection 3,756 3,788 3,845 3,875 3,973 4,011 4,170 4,371 4,528 4,701 4,869 Supply Projection 3,700 3,728 3,853 3,973 4,076 4,224 4,301 4,448 4,589 4,693 4,791 Demand/Supply 1.015 1.016 0.998 0.975 0.975 0.949 0.970 0.983 0.987 1.002 1.016 0.990C134-Construction Estimators Demand Projection 1,572 1,668 1,739 1,738 1,737 1,785 1,826 1,773 1,794 1,862 1,898 Supply Projection 2,543 2,551 2,560 2,569 2,570 2,575 2,595 2,614 2,621 2,641 2,665 Demand/Supply 0.618 0.654 0.679 0.677 0.676 0.693 0.704 0.678 0.685 0.705 0.712 0.680C164-Construction Inspectors Demand Projection 1,736 1,775 1,804 1,813 1,826 1,849 1,878 1,883 1,908 1,946 1,975 Supply Projection 1,700 1,707 1,720 1,735 1,750 1,767 1,784 1,802 1,821 1,839 1,857 Demand/Supply 1.021 1.040 1.049 1.045 1.043 1.046 1.053 1.045 1.048 1.058 1.063 1.047D011-Specialist Physicians Demand Projection 3958 4014 4074 4152 4193 4242 4293 4371 4434 4499 4572 Supply Projection 3900 3748 3723 3697 3668 3626 3588 3547 3508 3465 3419 Demand/Supply 1.015 1.071 1.094 1.123 1.143 1.170 1.197 1.232 1.264 1.298 1.337 1.177D012-General Practitioners and Family Physicians Demand Projection 5100 5209 5329 5486 5567 5665 5761 5911 6031 6154 6296 Supply Projection 5000 4789 4741 4690 4638 4570 4506 4440 4375 4307 4234 Demand/Supply* 1.020 1.088 1.124 1.170 1.201 1.240 1.278 1.331 1.378 1.429 1.487 1.250



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016D013-Dentists Demand Projection 2446 2492 2542 2608 2642 2682 2723 2786 2837 2889 2949 Supply Projection 2300 2591 2521 2451 2382 2307 2236 2165 2097 2029 1961 Demand/Supply 1.063 0.962 1.008 1.064 1.109 1.163 1.218 1.287 1.353 1.424 1.504 1.196D014-Veterinarians Demand Projection 1,522 1,547 1,563 1,584 1,603 1,620 1,633 1,647 1,664 1,680 1,694 Supply Projection 1,500 1,494 1,463 1,432 1,400 1,364 1,331 1,297 1,264 1,230 1,196 Demand/Supply 1.015 1.035 1.068 1.106 1.145 1.188 1.228 1.270 1.317 1.365 1.416 1.196D021-Optometrists Demand Projection 398 406 414 425 431 438 445 455 463 472 482 Supply Projection 477 456 440 432 425 417 411 405 401 396 391 Demand/Supply 0.834 0.889 0.940 0.983 1.014 1.049 1.081 1.123 1.157 1.193 1.233 1.045D022-Chiropractors Demand Projection 645 659 674 694 704 717 729 748 763 778 796 Supply Projection 889 851 821 806 793 778 766 755 747 738 729 Demand/Supply 0.726 0.775 0.821 0.861 0.889 0.921 0.951 0.990 1.022 1.055 1.092 0.919D031-Pharmacists Demand Projection 3,280 3,371 3,465 3,572 3,658 3,737 3,804 3,887 3,965 4,036 4,108 Supply Projection 3,200 2,796 2,811 2,861 2,919 2,934 2,949 2,964 2,989 3,005 3,013 Demand/Supply* 1.025 1.205 1.233 1.249 1.253 1.274 1.290 1.312 1.326 1.343 1.364 1.261D032-Dietitians and Nutritionists Demand Projection 423 443 465 493 509 527 544 570 590 611 635 Supply Projection 400 717 649 595 546 495 448 405 368 333 301 Demand/Supply 1.057 0.618 0.717 0.830 0.932 1.066 1.214 1.405 1.602 1.832 2.108 1.216D041-Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists Demand Projection 2424 2440 2459 2484 2498 2515 2535 2563 2585 2609 2636 Supply Projection 2400 3191 3179 3164 3148 3124 3106 3088 3070 3051 3030 Demand/Supply 1.010 0.765 0.773 0.785 0.794 0.805 0.816 0.830 0.842 0.855 0.870 0.831D042-Physiotherapists Demand Projection 2,740 2,781 2,826 2,884 2,914 2,950 2,988 3,045 3,091 3,139 3,193 Supply Projection 2,700 1,811 1,834 1,856 1,878 1,895 1,915 1,936 1,957 1,977 1,996 Demand/Supply 1.015 1.536 1.540 1.554 1.552 1.557 1.560 1.573 1.580 1.587 1.599 1.514



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016D043-Occupational Therapists Demand Projection 1,027 1,055 1,086 1,127 1,149 1,174 1,199 1,238 1,269 1,301 1,338 Supply Projection 1,151 1,224 1,233 1,241 1,249 1,254 1,261 1,268 1,275 1,281 1,287 Demand/Supply 0.892 0.862 0.881 0.908 0.919 0.937 0.951 0.977 0.995 1.015 1.039 0.943D044-Other Professional Occupations in Therapy and Assessment Demand Projection 817 835 855 882 896 912 928 953 973 992 1,016 Supply Projection 749 796 802 807 812 816 820 825 829 833 837 Demand/Supply 1.091 1.049 1.066 1.092 1.103 1.119 1.132 1.156 1.173 1.191 1.213 1.126D111-Head Nurses and Supervisors Demand Projection 1,220 1,240 1,263 1,294 1,310 1,329 1,348 1,377 1,401 1,425 1,453 Supply Projection 1,200 1,826 1,806 1,784 1,762 1,733 1,706 1,677 1,650 1,620 1,589 Demand/Supply 1.016 0.679 0.699 0.725 0.743 0.767 0.790 0.821 0.849 0.880 0.914 0.808D112-Registered Nurses Demand Projection 27,132 27,683 28,288 29,079 29,494 29,987 30,479 31,240 31,850 32,473 33,192 Supply Projection 26,900 26,838 27,384 27,889 28,414 28,834 29,269 29,689 30,131 30,519 30,878 Demand/Supply 1.009 1.031 1.033 1.043 1.038 1.040 1.041 1.052 1.057 1.064 1.075 1.044D211-Medical Laboratory Technologists and Pathologists' Assistants Demand Projection 1,031 1,077 1,127 1,193 1,230 1,272 1,312 1,373 1,421 1,471 1,528 Supply Projection 1,360 1,749 1,819 1,845 1,861 1,831 1,801 1,758 1,714 1,657 1,595 Demand/Supply* 0.758 0.616 0.620 0.647 0.661 0.695 0.728 0.781 0.829 0.888 0.958 0.744D212-Medical Laboratory Technicians Demand Projection 2,255 2,302 2,353 2,420 2,457 2,500 2,543 2,607 2,659 2,712 2,772 Supply Projection 2,300 1,741 1,966 2,165 2,372 2,534 2,707 2,869 3,036 3,187 3,334 Demand/Supply 0.980 1.322 1.197 1.118 1.036 0.987 0.939 0.909 0.876 0.851 0.832 1.004D213-Veterinary and Animal Health Technologists and Technicians Demand Projection 912 941 961 989 1,012 1,033 1,049 1,066 1,085 1,103 1,120 Supply Projection 799 735 791 830 867 883 899 909 917 918 915 Demand/Supply 1.142 1.282 1.216 1.191 1.167 1.170 1.166 1.172 1.184 1.202 1.224 1.192D214-Respiratory Therapists Clinical Perfusionists and Related Occupations Demand Projection 741 762 784 812 828 846 863 890 912 934 959 Supply Projection 572 1,049 1,010 949 886 808 736 665 600 537 479 Demand/Supply 1.296 0.726 0.776 0.856 0.934 1.047 1.173 1.339 1.519 1.738 2.001 1.219



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016D215-Medical Radiation Technologists Demand Projection 1,055 1,092 1,133 1,186 1,215 1,248 1,281 1,332 1,372 1,414 1,461 Supply Projection 1,078 1,384 1,437 1,455 1,465 1,438 1,412 1,376 1,339 1,292 1,242 Demand/Supply 0.979 0.789 0.789 0.815 0.829 0.868 0.907 0.968 1.025 1.094 1.177 0.931D219-Other Medical Technologists and Technicians (Except Dental Health) Demand Projection 275 281 289 298 304 310 317 325 332 339 345 Supply Projection 194 168 179 187 193 195 196 196 196 195 192 Demand/Supply 1.418 1.670 1.608 1.594 1.575 1.594 1.612 1.654 1.693 1.741 1.798 1.633D222-Dental Hygienists and Dental Therapists Demand Projection 1,836 1,869 1,904 1,951 1,975 2,004 2,034 2,079 2,116 2,153 2,196 Supply Projection 1,800 1,878 1,877 1,884 1,886 1,889 1,894 1,894 1,892 1,883 1,867 Demand/Supply 1.020 0.995 1.014 1.035 1.047 1.061 1.074 1.098 1.118 1.144 1.176 1.071D223-Dental Technologists Technicians and Laboratory Bench Workers Demand Projection 938 955 979 1,006 1,027 1,047 1,068 1,095 1,119 1,139 1,159 Supply Projection 1,227 1,168 1,170 1,176 1,179 1,182 1,187 1,189 1,189 1,185 1,177 Demand/Supply 0.764 0.818 0.836 0.856 0.871 0.885 0.900 0.921 0.941 0.961 0.985 0.885D231-Opticians Demand Projection 728 756 785 819 846 870 891 916 940 961 983 Supply Projection 697 951 962 970 981 980 983 984 986 982 976 Demand/Supply* 1.044 0.795 0.816 0.845 0.862 0.888 0.906 0.931 0.953 0.978 1.007 0.911D232-Midwives and Practitioners of Natural Healing Demand Projection 511 523 536 553 563 574 584 600 613 626 641 Supply Projection 403 551 557 562 568 568 569 570 571 569 565 Demand/Supply 1.268 0.950 0.962 0.985 0.991 1.011 1.027 1.053 1.074 1.101 1.134 1.051D233-Licensed Practical Nurses Demand Projection 7,277 7,402 7,538 7,717 7,810 7,921 8,034 8,207 8,347 8,490 8,654 Supply Projection 7,200 6,613 6,777 6,916 7,083 7,170 7,280 7,382 7,490 7,560 7,609 Demand/Supply 1.011 1.119 1.112 1.116 1.103 1.105 1.104 1.112 1.114 1.123 1.137 1.105D234-Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations Demand Projection 2,153 2,199 2,245 2,304 2,341 2,383 2,427 2,487 2,537 2,587 2,645 Supply Projection 2,100 2,244 2,278 2,303 2,336 2,342 2,355 2,365 2,377 2,376 2,368 Demand/Supply 1.025 0.980 0.986 1.000 1.002 1.018 1.030 1.052 1.067 1.089 1.117 1.033



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016D235-Other Technical Occupations in Therapy and Assessment Demand Projection 1,957 2,023 2,104 2,198 2,257 2,314 2,363 2,437 2,495 2,540 2,610 Supply Projection 2,000 2,285 2,313 2,331 2,358 2,358 2,365 2,368 2,374 2,366 2,352 Demand/Supply 0.979 0.885 0.910 0.943 0.957 0.981 0.999 1.029 1.051 1.074 1.109 0.992D311-Dental Assistants Demand Projection 3,878 3,955 4,040 4,151 4,210 4,279 4,348 4,454 4,539 4,626 4,727 Supply Projection 3,900 4,786 4,807 4,823 4,838 4,843 4,849 4,847 4,847 4,835 4,816 Demand/Supply 0.994 0.826 0.841 0.861 0.870 0.884 0.897 0.919 0.937 0.957 0.981 0.906D312-Nurse Aides Orderlies and Patient Service Associates Demand Projection 15,708 16,015 16,352 16,792 17,022 17,295 17,567 17,988 18,326 18,669 19,067 Supply Projection 15,700 16,177 16,336 16,482 16,630 16,737 16,853 16,941 17,035 17,090 17,117 Demand/Supply 1.001 0.990 1.001 1.019 1.024 1.033 1.042 1.062 1.076 1.092 1.114 1.041D313-Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services Demand Projection 6,324 6,458 6,601 6,777 6,892 7,011 7,121 7,277 7,409 7,537 7,678 Supply Projection 6,400 5,404 5,560 5,716 5,876 6,026 6,183 6,332 6,488 6,633 6,769 Demand/Supply 0.988 1.195 1.187 1.186 1.173 1.163 1.152 1.149 1.142 1.136 1.134 1.146H012-Contractors and Supervisors Electrical Trades and Telecommunications etc. Demand Projection 1,743 1,801 1,849 1,854 1,858 1,890 1,921 1,898 1,917 1,962 1,990 Supply Projection 1,700 2,454 2,385 2,317 2,248 2,181 2,115 2,051 1,988 1,927 1,868 Demand/Supply 1.025 0.734 0.775 0.800 0.827 0.866 0.908 0.926 0.964 1.018 1.066 0.901H015-Contractors and Supervisors Carpentry Trades Demand Projection 4,284 4,376 4,440 4,426 4,409 4,451 4,489 4,421 4,436 4,503 4,534 Supply Projection 4,300 6,390 6,395 6,393 6,387 6,379 6,368 6,356 6,344 6,331 6,316 Demand/Supply 0.996 0.685 0.694 0.692 0.690 0.698 0.705 0.696 0.699 0.711 0.718 0.726H017-Contractors and Supervisors Heavy Construction Equipment Crews Demand Projection 4,896 5,081 5,218 5,206 5,214 5,318 5,434 5,355 5,425 5,597 5,704 Supply Projection 5,200 7,667 7,614 7,553 7,487 7,420 7,351 7,280 7,210 7,140 7,068 Demand/Supply 0.942 0.663 0.685 0.689 0.696 0.717 0.739 0.736 0.752 0.784 0.807 0.746H019-Contractors and Supervisors Other Construction Trades Installers&Repairers Demand Projection 11,392 11,507 11,589 11,570 11,550 11,602 11,662 11,590 11,622 11,718 11,771 Supply Projection 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 Demand/Supply 0.991 1.001 1.008 1.006 1.004 1.009 1.014 1.008 1.011 1.019 1.024 1.008



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016H111-Plumbers Demand Projection 6,531 6,806 7,004 6,966 6,926 7,054 7,166 6,968 7,011 7,209 7,303 Supply Projection 6,600 6,476 6,345 6,211 6,063 5,917 5,781 5,647 5,494 5,355 5,225 Demand/Supply 0.990 1.051 1.104 1.121 1.142 1.192 1.240 1.234 1.276 1.346 1.398 1.190H112-Steamfitters Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers Demand Projection 6,157 6,309 6,452 6,459 6,507 6,600 6,765 6,805 6,933 7,143 7,301 Supply Projection 6,800 7,012 7,220 7,427 7,619 7,813 8,022 8,235 8,420 8,624 8,841 Demand/Supply 0.905 0.900 0.894 0.870 0.854 0.845 0.843 0.826 0.823 0.828 0.826 0.856H113-Gas Fitters Demand Projection 1,198 1,219 1,239 1,251 1,263 1,278 1,297 1,310 1,328 1,350 1,370 Supply Projection 1,300 1,335 1,369 1,403 1,433 1,463 1,496 1,530 1,558 1,589 1,623 Demand/Supply 0.922 0.913 0.905 0.892 0.882 0.873 0.867 0.856 0.852 0.850 0.844 0.878H121-Carpenters Demand Projection 15,375 16,137 16,686 16,575 16,455 16,811 17,110 16,536 16,642 17,179 17,421 Supply Projection 15,400 15,585 16,197 16,568 16,302 16,160 16,457 16,685 16,112 16,259 16,768 Demand/Supply 0.998 1.035 1.030 1.000 1.009 1.040 1.040 0.991 1.033 1.057 1.039 1.025H211-Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System) Demand Projection 10,250 10,710 11,051 11,003 10,956 11,179 11,384 11,083 11,174 11,518 11,693 Supply Projection 10,400 11,108 11,491 11,734 11,684 11,667 11,808 11,935 11,715 11,791 12,002 Demand/Supply 0.986 0.964 0.962 0.938 0.938 0.958 0.964 0.929 0.954 0.977 0.974 0.958H532-Waterworks and Gas Maintenance Workers Demand Projection 638 670 704 741 780 811 851 899 939 981 1,022 Supply Projection 1,339 1,360 1,390 1,419 1,439 1,455 1,480 1,503 1,515 1,540 1,571 Demand/Supply 0.476 0.493 0.507 0.522 0.542 0.557 0.575 0.598 0.620 0.637 0.651 0.562H821-Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers Demand Projection 16,093 16,810 17,328 17,222 17,128 17,466 17,782 17,282 17,416 17,960 18,225 Supply Projection 17,700 17,501 17,684 17,723 17,397 17,221 17,473 17,640 17,219 17,371 17,826 Demand/Supply 0.909 0.961 0.980 0.972 0.985 1.014 1.018 0.980 1.011 1.034 1.022 0.990I122-Supervisors Oil and Gas Drilling and Service Demand Projection 11,451 11,444 11,523 11,502 11,661 11,688 12,045 12,488 12,823 13,211 13,587 Supply Projection 11,600 12,074 12,136 12,182 12,215 12,248 12,268 12,283 12,296 12,300 12,295 Demand/Supply 0.987 0.948 0.950 0.944 0.955 0.954 0.982 1.017 1.043 1.074 1.105 0.996



Occupational Projections 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006-2016I132-Oil and Gas Well Drillers Servicers Testers and Related Workers Demand Projection 20,190 20,162 20,234 20,199 20,362 20,376 20,771 21,268 21,638 22,062 22,478 Supply Projection 20,600 20,439 20,507 20,569 20,618 20,666 20,702 20,729 20,743 20,742 20,732 Demand/Supply 0.980 0.986 0.987 0.982 0.988 0.986 1.003 1.026 1.043 1.064 1.084 1.012I142-Oil and Gas Well Drilling Workers and Services Operators Demand Projection 7,373 7,342 7,415 7,375 7,541 7,555 7,936 8,421 8,775 9,188 9,591 Supply Projection 7,700 7,958 8,040 8,133 8,217 8,313 8,394 8,471 8,532 8,580 8,625 Demand/Supply 0.958 0.923 0.922 0.907 0.918 0.909 0.946 0.994 1.029 1.071 1.112 0.972I215-Oil and Gas Drilling Servicing and Related Labourers Demand Projection 5,327 5,328 5,427 5,402 5,588 5,628 6,033 6,522 6,896 7,337 7,763 Supply Projection 6,100 4,742 4,920 5,086 5,159 5,321 5,403 5,707 6,001 6,158 6,330 Demand/Supply 0.873 1.124 1.103 1.062 1.083 1.058 1.117 1.143 1.149 1.191 1.226 1.103J012-Supervisors Petroleum Gas and Chemical Processing and Utilities Demand Projection 4,364 4,394 4,442 4,473 4,536 4,573 4,677 4,799 4,898 5,008 5,114 Supply Projection 4,300 4,163 4,208 4,248 4,286 4,326 4,365 4,406 4,449 4,493 4,537 Demand/Supply 1.015 1.055 1.056 1.053 1.058 1.057 1.072 1.089 1.101 1.115 1.127 1.073J112-Petroleum Gas and Chemical Process Operators Demand Projection 6,192 6,192 6,310 6,330 6,553 6,613 7,041 7,589 7,994 8,445 8,889 Supply Projection 6,100 5,972 5,824 5,809 5,755 5,901 5,910 6,195 6,522 6,672 6,830 Demand/Supply 1.015 1.037 1.083 1.090 1.139 1.121 1.191 1.225 1.226 1.266 1.301 1.154

Work began on the Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook Model€¦ · Figure 1 provides an overview...

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Transcript of Work began on the Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook Model€¦ · Figure 1 provides an overview...