Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Transcript of Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt
Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: IW Medien / iwd
Agenda 2010
June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany 2
Pension
Scheme
Labour Market Social Contributions
Protection against Dismissal Hartz IV
3 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Notes: in percentage points Source: German Economic Institute
Contributions of the production factors labor, capital and total factor productivity (TFP) to the growth of real GDP
Growth projections up 2035
employment real GDP capital
4 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: PWC, 2015
Increase of revenue
• 12.5 % over 5 years
Necessary investment
• 40.1 bn. euro annually
Machinery and plant engineering, automotive, process industry, electrical and electronic industry, ICT, 2015
What German companies expect from Industry 4.0 until 2020
5 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
69.5
66.4
65.4
64.1
63.2
61.8
44.3
44.3
1. Finland
2. Schweden
3. Israel
4. Great Britain
5. Australia
9. USA
17. Germany
18. Japan
BBVA - DiGiX ZEW/Fraunhofer, 2017
The Digitization Index
Source: Fraunhofer and ZEW, 2017 http://www.innovationsindikator.de/fileadmin/2017/PDF/Innovationsindikator_2017.pdf (P. 36); Camara andTuesta, 2017 https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WP_17-03_DiGiX_methodology.pdf (P. 9)
1.00
0.97
0.95
0.92
0.90
0.88
0.78
1. Luxembourg
2. Great Britain
3. Hong Kong
4. USA
5. Netherlands
6. Japan
16. Germany
6 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: IW Consult, 2015, 2016
Percentage of surveyed companies, only companies with at least 20 employees in the manufacturing sector
Industry-4.0-Readiness
7 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: IW Köln; IW Consult, 2016
Percentage of the companies in the manufacturing industry, depending on the type of digital transformation, 2015
Opportunity versus risk in Industry 4.0
8 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: Demary et al., 2016
Efficiency and productivity
Improved use of input resources, raw materials, energy
Improved control of value-added chains
Flexibility and transparency
Flexible production processes, batch size 1
Transparent production processes
Digital business models
Increased benefits for customers
Increasing importance of online platforms
New products and services
Anything as a service (XaaS)
Greater differentiation of product and service portfolio
Selected opportunities
Opportunities of digitalization at the company level
9 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014
Proportion of companies in % by level of digitisation, 2014 selection
Benefits from exploiting capabilities of digital technologies
82
70
76
June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany 10
1 for better professional internet use, 2 to changing vocational qualification requirements Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014
Need for change in order to be able to take advantage of the opportunities offered by digital transformation - percentage of companies in % - 2014
Challenge of competence building
Photo source: juniart – Fotolia; kasto – Fotolia; katatonia - Fotolia
62 59 59
willingness to change Expansion of company qualification courses1
Adaptation of courses at schools/colleges2
11 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
+/++/+++ significance at 10%-/5%-/1%-level Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014, own calculations
less digitised firms (ref.) highly digitised firms
today increase today increase
Ability to communicate and cooperate 76.2 72.2 87.4+++ 83.0+++
Ability to plan and organise, to act autonomously 49.5 69.0 76.4+++ 81.5+
Experience (firm-specific, occupational-specific) 53.4 55.7 60.5+++ 70.7+++
Technical know how / expertise 28.9 53.1 35.1+++ 60.8+++
Craft/Dexterity 34.4 24.1 19.7 20.6
Management know how 21.3 52.1 28.4 57.4++
Online-skills 9.7 51.3 43.6+++ 75.0+++
IT-know how 4.0 43.0 11.9+++ 63.8+++
for the majority of employees, proportion of companies in % by level of digitisation - 2014
Importance of competences – today and expectation for the next decade
Photosource: opolja - Fotolia.com; allinvisuality iStock-500340251
12 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Employee can adapt working time within certain limits or determine working hours entirely by him- or herself. Sources: EWCS 2015; German Economic Institute
Proportion of employees with relatively high working-time sovereignty in the EU-28, 2015
Mobile computing means working-time sovereignty
43 28
21
56
43
38
79
84
Determining the amount of work
Performing work
work planning
13 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
1) work 3.0: isolated work without internet; Work 4.0: Networking with the Internet. Souces: IW based on the 2012 BIBB / BAuA Employment Survey; Arnold et al., 2015 based on the Linked Personnel Panel
Proportion of employees (in %) with ample room for maneuver / great influence in... - 20121)
Work 4.0 is sovereign work
Photosource: opolja - Fotolia.com
14 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany
Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014
Proportion of companies in % by level of digitisation – 2014
HR policies and digitised work environment
Surce: BMAS, Weißbuch Arbeiten 4.0, Page 86
Work 4.0 is more flexible work
external flexibility
Reference point: "Normal enterprise" and "normal employment relationship"
internal flexibility
spatial flexibility
External crowdsourcing outsourcing work contracts temporary work
Home Office Mobile work
Virtual Teams Co-Working
June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany 15
term contract
Tempo-rary
work
work contract
Crowd work
Click work
4
1) Only ICT economy Source: ZEW 2015; Stettes, 2017 based on the EWCS 2015
0 5 10 15 20
temporary work
Temporaryemployment
altogether mobile computer activity
mobile offline activity stationary computer activity
stationary offline activity
Percentage of companies using crowdworking platforms1), in % - 2014 and share of fixed-term and temporary workers in % in EU-28, by job digitization - 2015
The "normal work relationship" does not die out
Photosource: Fotolia – 26465371 XS / Fotolia_30752100_XS Tastatur
Crowdsourcing
June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany 16
Work 4.0 is not the end of Work
09/2016 04/1978 03/1964
June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany 17
www.iwkoeln.de
+49 221 4981-750
Managing Director Head of Research
Dr. Hubertus Bardt