Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations · 2019. 7. 29. · to 63 years old are far more...
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April 10, 2017 revision For NBER conference volume, Women Working Longer Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations Claudia Goldin Harvard University and NBER Lawrence F. Katz Harvard University and NBER Abstract American women are working more, through their sixties and even into their seventies. Their increased participation at older ages started in the late 1980s before the turnaround in older men’s labor force participation and the economic downturns of the 2000s. The higher labor force participation of older women consists disproportionately of those working at full-time jobs. Increased labor force participation of women in their older ages is part of the general increase in cohort labor force participation. Cohort effects, in turn, are mainly a function of educational advances and greater prior work experience. But labor force participation rates of the most recent cohorts in their forties are less than those for previous cohorts. These factors may suggest that employment at older ages will stagnate or even decrease. But several other factors will be operating in an opposing direction and leads us to conclude that women are likely to continue to work even longer. Acknowledgments: We are indebted to the University of Michigan, David Wise and the staff at the NBER, especially Mohan Ramanujan, for enabling use of the restricted access version of the HRS. We thank our research assistants who labored over the CPS, HRS and the Social Security earnings files: Amira Abulafi, Natalia Emanuel, Celena (Yuezhou) Huo and Jonathan Roth. We thank our discussant Katharine Abraham and others at the conference for providing valuable comments and to Maria Fitzpatrick for the “ever a teacher” variable code. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation’s Working Longer program under grant no. 2013-6-16, “Women Working Longer.”
Transcript of Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations · 2019. 7. 29. · to 63 years old are far more...
April10,2017revisionForNBERconferencevolume,WomenWorkingLonger
Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations
ClaudiaGoldinHarvardUniversityandNBER
LawrenceF.Katz
HarvardUniversityandNBER
Abstract
Americanwomenareworkingmore,throughtheirsixtiesandevenintotheirseventies.Theirincreasedparticipationatolderagesstartedinthelate1980sbeforetheturnaroundinoldermen’slaborforceparticipationandtheeconomicdownturnsofthe2000s.Thehigherlaborforceparticipationofolderwomenconsistsdisproportionatelyofthoseworkingatfull-timejobs.Increasedlaborforceparticipationofwomenintheirolderagesispartofthegeneralincreaseincohortlaborforceparticipation.Cohorteffects,inturn,aremainlyafunctionofeducationaladvancesandgreaterpriorworkexperience.Butlaborforceparticipationratesofthemostrecentcohortsintheirfortiesarelessthanthoseforpreviouscohorts.Thesefactorsmaysuggestthatemploymentatolderageswillstagnateorevendecrease.Butseveralotherfactorswillbeoperatinginanopposingdirectionandleadsustoconcludethatwomenarelikelytocontinuetoworkevenlonger.Acknowledgments:WeareindebtedtotheUniversityofMichigan,DavidWiseandthestaffattheNBER,especiallyMohanRamanujan,forenablinguseoftherestrictedaccessversionoftheHRS.WethankourresearchassistantswholaboredovertheCPS,HRSandtheSocialSecurityearningsfiles:AmiraAbulafi,NataliaEmanuel,Celena(Yuezhou)HuoandJonathanRoth.WethankourdiscussantKatharineAbrahamandothersattheconferenceforprovidingvaluablecommentsandtoMariaFitzpatrickforthe“everateacher”variablecode.WegratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportoftheAlfredP.SloanFoundation’sWorkingLongerprogramundergrantno.2013-6-16,“WomenWorkingLonger.”
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-1-
WomenhavebeenworkinglongerforalongtimeinU.S.history.Theirlabormarket
participationincreaseddecadeafterdecadeduringthetwentiethcentury,asmorewomen
weredrawnintothelaborforce.Butthatisanoldstory.Thenewstoryisthatalarge
portionofwomenareworkingalotlongerintotheirsixtiesandeventheirseventies.Their
increasedparticipationatolderagesstartedinthelate1980sbeforetheturnaroundin
oldermen’slaborforceparticipationandbeforetheeconomicdownturnsofthe2000s.1
Women’sincreasedparticipationbeyondtheirfiftiesisachangeofreal
consequence.Ratherthanbeinganincreaseinmarginalpart-timeworkers,thehigher
laborforceparticipationofolderwomendisproportionatelyconsistsofthoseworkingat
full-timejobs.Womenareremainingontheirjobsastheyageratherthanscalingdownor
leavingforpositionswithshorterhoursandfewerdays.2
Whyhavewomenasagroupincreasedtheirparticipationatolderages?Increased
laborforceparticipationofwomenintheirolderages,wewillemphasize,ispartofthe
generalincreaseincohortlaborforceparticipationrates.Successivecohorts,forvarious
reasons,increasedtheirparticipationatallages,resultinginanupwardshiftof
participationbybirthcohort.Asmorewomengraduatedfromcollege,heldjobswith
greateradvancementpotential,enjoyedtheirjobsmore,werenotcurrentlymarriedor
weremarriedtomenwhoalsoextendedemploymentintotheirsenioryears,more
remainedactiveinthelaborforceintotheirsixtiesandbeyond.
Risingcohorteffectsinlaborforceparticipationacrosssuccessivebirthcohortsof
U.S.womenareclearlyvisibleinthemicro-datafromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1AccordingtoOECDdata,mostnationsfromaround2000havehadincreasedlaborforceparticipationofwomenintheirsixties.Thesecountriesinclude:Canada,France,Germany,Sweden,andtheUK.Increaseshavealsobeenexperiencedamongwomen65-69yearsold.Intermsoflevelsfor60-64-year-olds,theUSandJapanhadbeenthehighestbutmostarenowataboutthe50percentlevel.Levelsaremuchlowerfor65-69yearoldsandconsiderablylowerthanthatfortheUS.OtherthantheUSandpossiblySweden,part-timeworkisreasonablyhighforolderwomeninthenationsmentioned.Inonlyafewcasesarechangesinsocialsecurityregulationsobviouslyrelatedtotheseincreases.Forthedata,seetheIntroductiontoThisVolumeandOECD.STAT,LFSbySexandAge,Indicators,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R2Maestas(2010)discussestheemergenceofnontraditionalretirementpathsincludingtheincreasingroleforplannedtransitionsoutofretirementandthegreaterfractionofthosewhostatetheyareretiredbutwhohavepositiveandoftensubstantialhoursofwork.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-2-
AnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement(ASEC)andtheHealthandRetirementSurvey
(HRS).Butthesecohorteffectsareconsiderablydampenedwheneducationisconsidered.
Higherparticipationatallageshasbeenduetogreaterlevelsofeducation,particularly
collegegraduation.Theincreaseincohorteffectsinlaborforceparticipationforwomenin
theirlatefiftiesandearlysixtiesisalsolessenedbyincludingworkexperienceatyounger
agesandbyaddinginformationonthemainprioroccupation.Wefindsome(negative)
impactonemploymentatolderagesfromhavingbeenateacheranddiscusswhythatis
thecase.
Mostimportantisthatwefindthatthosewho“enjoyed”theirjobsearlierinlife
remainedemployedformuchlongerlaterinlifeindependentoftheirhoursandearnings
onthejobsixtoeightyearsearlier.Thedifferencebetweenthosewhoagreewiththe
statementaboutenjoyingtheirjobversusthosewhodisagreewiththestatementis10
percentagepoints(onabaseof70)andtheeffectistwicethatbetweenthosewhostrongly
disagreewiththestatementandthosewhoagree.Womenwhoworkmorehourswhen59
to63yearsoldarefarmorelikelytohaveworkedmorehourssixyearsbefore.Butthatis
inadditiontotheirgreatersatisfactioninthejobearlierandtheirgreaterfulfillment
contemporaneously.Thatisclearlynotthecaseforallolderworkers,butitisthecasefor
most.
Manyofthecohortsweconsiderwerethosethatalsoexperiencedgreaterdivorce.
Therefore,currentmaritalstatusisrelatedtoemploymentatolderages.Becausecouples
oftencoordinatetheirworkandleisure,currentemploymentofthespouseisanadditional
correlateofwhetherawomanisworkinglonger.
Mostofthefactorsjustmentioned,particularlyeducationalattainmentandearlier
employmentcontinuity,weredeterminedpriortotheemploymentdecisionunder
question.Theadditionofthesefactorsalmostnullifiesthecohorteffects,exceptinone
importantcase.Forthemostrecentcohortsofcollegegraduatewomenwecanstudyto
theirsixties(thosebornfrom1949to1955),thepredetermined,observablefactorsdonot
eliminatethecohorteffect.Somethingelse,yetundetermined,iskeepingtheminthelabor
forceatolderages.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-3-
Laborforceparticipationratesofwomenintheirearlysixtiescanbeobservedtoday
forcohortsbornuptothemid-1950s.Participationratesofforty-andfifty-yearoldwomen
borninthelate1950sandearly1960shavenotincreasedrelativetothoseofpriorcohorts.
Lifecyclecohortlaborforcefunctionsarenolongerthehumpedfunctionstheyoncewere.
Theyhavebecomeflatlines,morelikethoseofmenthantheyhadbeen.Theseflatlines,
moreover,haveintersectedthehumpedlifecycleparticipationfunctionsofpriorcohorts,
showingthedecreaseinparticipationrelativetopreviouscohorts.Butthesenewand
flatterparticipationfunctionsappearnottobedecreasingatolderagesrelativetoprior
cohorts.Thatmayindicatethatwomenwillcontinuetoworklongereventhoughtheir
participationratesatmid-agehadstagnatedrelativetopriorcohorts.3
SeveralfactorsmayoperatetooffsetthestagnationordipintheparticipationofUS
womeninmid-age.Oneofthereasonsforthedipinwomen’sparticipationintheirlate
thirtiesandearlyfortiesisthatwomeninthesecohortshavehadtheirchildrenlater.
Therefore,thediphadbeenaccompaniedbyanincreaseintheirparticipationintheir
twentiesrelativetopreviouscohorts.
Wefindinourexplorationofthecorrelatesofparticipationthatcollegegraduate
womencurrentlyintheirearlysixtieshavepositivecohorteffectsthatremainsubstantial
evenaftercontrollingfortheirearlierlifecycleparticipationrates.Today’syoungerwomen
willlikelyretirelaterthanonewouldhavepredictedbasedontheireducationalattainment
andlifecycleparticipationrates.Thefindingisparticularlynoteworthysincefemalecollege
graduationratesarecontinuingtoincreasebybirthcohort.4
3SeeGoldinandMitchell(2017)onchangesinlifecyclelaborforceparticipation.HurdandRohwedder(2014)usequestionsintheHRSonsubjectiveprobabilitiesofemploymenttopredictfuturelaborforceparticipationrates.SeealsoMaestasandZissimopoulos(2010)forparticipationforecastsatolderagesto2030andforanexcellentsummaryoftheissues.4Thecollegegraduationrate(thesharewithabachelor’sdegree)forwomenaged25to29yearsincreasedfrom30percentin2000(forthe1971to1975birthcohorts)to39percentin2015(forthe1986to1990birthcohorts).SeeU.S.DepartmentofEducation(2015),table104.20.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-4-
A. Labor Force Participation Rates
1. By Age, Sex and Education Level
Thecentralfactsconcerningthelaborforceparticipationofwomenbyageare
showninFigure1,whichusestheMarchCPS-ASECmicro-datasamplesandgives
contemporaneouslaborforceparticipationratesduringthesurveyreferenceweekfor
womenbyfive-yearagegroupssince1962.Throughoutmuchtheperiodshown,
participationratesincreasedforwomeninthe35to54-yeargroup.The35-49-year-old
groupflattensoutintheearly1990s.Incontrast,ratesforwomen55yearsandolderwere
flatuntilthe1980s,whenanalmostcontinuousincreaseensued,evenforthe70to74-
year-oldgroup.
Thelaborforceparticipationdataarealsogiven,inFigure2,forcollegegraduate
womensinceschoolattainmentincreasesbybirthcohort.Theseriesisrestrictedto
currentlymarriedwomenbecausealargefractionoftheearliercohortsofcollegegraduate
women—thosebornfromthe1890stothe1910s—nevermarriedormarriedlate.In
consequence,alargefractionofcollegegraduatewomen,eventhosewhoeventually
married,neverhadchildrenandhadhigherlaborforceparticipationrates(Goldin1997).
Consideringonlythegroupwhowerecurrentlymarrieddampenstheselectionproblem
butdoesnoteliminateitbecauseoflatermarriageages.Participationratesforcollege
graduatewomen,therefore,declinesomewhatovertimeastheirmarriageandchild
bearingratesbecomemorelikeothersintheircohort.
Ifoneignorescohortsbornbeforearound1920,theseriesforallwomenandthat
forcollegegraduatewomen55yearsorolderarefirstrelativelyconstantandthen
increase,particularlyafterthemid-tolate-1980s.5Thepercentagepointincreaseduring
thepast25years,showninTable1,isnotmuchdifferentbetweentheaggregategroupof
womenandthecollegegraduates.Butbecausecollegegraduatewomenhavehad
considerablyhigherparticipationratesthanlesser-educatedwomen,theshifttoward
5Forthe60to64-year-oldgroup,participationratesafter1980areforindividualsbornafter1920.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-5-
collegehasincreasedparticipationratesforolderwomenandthegrowthofwomen’s
employmentatolderages.
AlsoclearinTable1isthattheincreasedparticipationofolderwomenexceedsthat
ofoldermeninthelast25years,bothabsolutelyandrelativetothebaselevels.Among60
to64-year-oldwomen,forexample,participationincreasedby17percentagepointsona
baseof34percentbutformalestheincreaseisjust6percentagepointsonabaseof55
percent.Thepercentagepointincreasefor65to69yearoldsmalesandfemalesissimilar
inabsolutemagnitude,buttheinitialbaseforwomenisfarlower(15versus26percent).
Therelativeincreaseforolderwomenhasmeantthatthegendergapin
participationatolderageshasgreatlydecreased,ascanbeseeninFigure3.Differencesin
participationbysexhave,ofcourse,decreasedmoregenerally.Buttheabsolutepercentage
pointdifferenceatsomeoftheolderagesisnowsmallerthanfortheyoungeragegroups.
For60to64yearolds,forexample,thedifferenceinparticipationratesbetweenmenand
womenwasabout50percentagepointsin1962.In2014,thedifferencewasjust9
percentagepoints,whenthatformalesandfemalesintheirthirtiestomid-fortieswas
around16percentagepoints.
Menandwomenaredoingmoreofthesamethingsthroughouttheirlivesandthisis
eventrueratolderages.Butisthatalsotruewithincouples?Theansweristhat,forwomen
59to63yearsoldandpresentlymarried,farmoreofthesecouplesarebothcurrently
workingthancurrentlyretired.6Inaddition,in2014aboutasmanyofthesecoupleshada
wifewhowasworkingandahusbandwhowasnotthanthereverse.Morewomenare
workingintotheirsixtiesandmorearecoupledwithmenwhoarealsoworking.Butthere
arealsosubstantialnumbersofwomenwhoareworkingintotheirsixtieseventhough
theirhusbandsareretired.Wereturntotheissueofjointemploymentandleisurebelow.
2. Full-time versus Part-time Employment of Women at Older Ages
Thelaborforceparticipationrateforolderwomenincreasedlargelybecauseofan6ThisstatementistrueforHRScouplesinwhichthewifeisbetween59and63yearsold.Forcouplesinwhichthewomanis62or63years,thestatementholdsbeginningin2008.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-6-
increaseinthoseworkingfull-timeandfull-year.Theexpansionoffull-timeemployment
amongparticipantshasbeenespeciallyevidentforthe65yearsandoldergroup.
AsseeninFigure4,thefractionof65to69-year-oldwomeninthelaborforcewho
workedfull-timeandfull-yearincreasedfromaround30percenttoalmost50percent,
withmuchoftheincreaseoccurringafter2000.7Thefractionof70to74-year-oldlabor
forceparticipantsworkingfull-timeandfull-yearincreasedfrom20percenttoalmost40
percent.WeemphasizethatFigure4givesthefractionworkingfull-time,full-yearamong
thoseinthelaborforceratherthanamongthepopulationinthatagegroup.Althoughthe
timingcouldindicatetheimpactofchangesintheSocialSecurityearningstest,theincrease
beganbefore2000forbothyoungerandolderagegroupsofwomen.8
3. Cohort Trends
Increasedemploymentamongolderwomenwouldappeartoberelatedtotheir
increasedparticipationearlierintheirlives.Theconclusioncanbededucedfromthefact
thatallcohortsinFigure5.Athathavehadincreasedparticipationintheirsixties,relative
toearliercohorts,alsohadincreasedparticipationrelativetothesamecohortswhenthey
wereyounger.Thatis,thecohortsthathavebegunto“worklonger”hadhigher
participationratesthroughouttheirlifecyclesthandidpreviouscohorts.
Figure5beginswiththecohortbornin1930,butthepatternjustmentionedis
evidentaswellforsomeoftheearlierbirthcohortsnotshown.However,cohortsbornin
theearly1920sshownodiscernibleincreaseinparticipationamongwomenintheirsixties
7Thepre-1970dataalsoshowsomewhathighfractionsworkingfulltimeamongparticipantsanditisnotclearwhytherewasasubsequentdecrease.8Theretirementearningstestwaschangedin2000toapplyonlytoindividualsbelownormalretirementage(NRA).TheNRAhadbeen65buthasbeengraduallyincreasedto67yearsforthosebornafter1959.EarningstaxedabovetheexemptamountsarerepaidafterNRA.From1975to1982theupperagewas71anditwasdecreasedto69until2000.SeeGelber,JonesandSacks(2016)ontheretirementearningstest,itshistoryandimpact.Changesformenmay,however,berelatedtothechangeintheretirementearningstest.SeeGustmanandSteinmeier(2009)andMastrobuoni(2009).Gelber,Isen,andSong(ThisVolume)showthataslowdownintherateofgrowthofSocialSecuritybenefitsstartinginthemid-1980salteredwomen’sretirement.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-7-
despitemodestincreasesearlierintheirlives.9Thedataforcollegegraduatesgivenin
Figure5.Brevealsimilarfindingsbutparticipationlevelsarehigher.
Aswillbeemphasizedlater,regressionsofthelaborforcerateatolderagesonbirth
cohortdummiesindicatethatcohorteffectsaregreatlymutedbytheadditionofvarious
predeterminedfactorssuchaseducation,earlieremploymentcontinuity,andwomen’spast
occupations.Thatis,cohortdifferencesinlaborforceparticipationlaterinlifearelargely,
butnotentirely,afunctionofearlierchangesinhumancapitalaccumulation.Thesehuman
capitaladvancesoccurredbecausewomenperceivedthattheirinvestmentswouldpayoff
inthelabormarketandthattheiremploymentwouldbehigherandmorecontinuousthan
forpreviouscohorts.
Wenotedbeforethatthefunctiontracingoutlifecyclelaborforceparticipationwas
transformedfrombeinghump-shapedtobeingalmostaflatlineafterthemid-1950sbirth
cohorts.Participationratesaroundage25totheearly30sgreatlyincreasedfromthe
1930stothe1950sbirthcohortsbecausewomenwithinfantshadmuchhigherlaborforce
participationandbecausethebirthratedecreased.
Thenewflattercohortlifecyclefunctionshavebeguntocrosseachother.The
crossingcreatesaninteresting“twist”inparticipationforthemostrecentcohortsin
Figures5.AandmoresoforcollegegraduatewomeninFigure5.B.Thetwististhecohort
analogoftheoft-mentioneddecreaseintheparticipationofwomenintheirthirtiesand
forties.10Oneclearwaytoseethechangeistoobservethatslicingthecohortgraphsatages
30and50yieldstheusualcohortprogression.Youngercohortshavehigherparticipation
ratesthanoldercohorts.Butslicingthecohortgraphsinbetween,sayatage40,doesnot
yieldhigherratesforthemostrecentcohorts,suchasthosebornfrom1959to1973.The
cohortlinesappeartohavetwisted.
Doesthismeanthatparticipationratesforthesewomenintheirfifties,sixtiesand
9ThesegeneraltrendsarealsoapparentinFigure1.Forexample,theparticipationlineforthose65to69yearsbeginstoincreasearound1987,thereforeforwomenbornintheearly1920s.10SeeGoldinandMitchell(2017)foradiscussionofthe“newlifecycleofwomen’semployment.”
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-8-
beyondwillalsobelower?Theirincreasededucationandlaborforceparticipationintheir
youngeryearswouldarguetheopposite.Whytheyhavedecreasedparticipationisstillan
on-goingresearchquestion,althoughsomeoftheanswersconcernthedelayofbirths,on
theonehand,andanabsenceofmandatedleavepolicyofmorethan12weeks,onthe
other.Thedecreaseinparticipationisnotlarge,butthedisruptionoftheincreasingtrend
isclearandcouldargueforabreakintheincreaseofwomen’sworkinglonger.11
Thebottomlineforcohortchangeisthatincreasedparticipationatolderageshas
occurredforcohortsthathadgreaterattachmenttothelaborforcethroughouttheirlives.
Theupshotisthatgreaterattachmenttothelaborforceearlierintheworklife,means
longeremploymentatolderages.Wenowturntousinglongitudinalinformationfromthe
HRSmatchedtoSocialSecurityearningsrecordstounderstandtheroleofcohorteffects.
BecausewerelyontheCPSforthegeneraltrendsandtheHRSforanalysis,we
provideevidencethattheHRSreasonablytracksgeneraltrendsintheCPSforthese
cohortsandagegroups.Appendixtablesandfiguresshowthecloserelationshipbetween
CPSandHRSparticipationrates(FigureA1),maritalstatus(TableA2),education(Table
A3)andnumberofchildren(FigureA2).LaborforceparticipationratesintheHRSandthe
CPSarealmostidenticalforwomenintheirfiftiesandsixties,howevertheHRShashigher
participationratesthantheCPSforwomenintheirseventies.12
B. Exploring the Role of Cohort Effects Using the HRS
Cohortsbornlaterhavehigherlaborforceparticipationratesatolderagesthando
thosebornearlier.Weexplorewhetherthesecohorteffectsareprimarilyduetochangesin
11HurdandRohwedder(2014)notethatsubjectiveprobabilitiesoffutureworkatages62and65arereliablepredictorsofactualemploymentandthatcurrentHRSrespondentsintheirearlyfiftieshavesubjectiveprobabilitiesoffutureworkthatexceedtheactualparticipationratesofindividualsintheirsixties.LusardiandMitchell(ThisVolume)alsofindusingtheHRSthattheshareofwomenintheirearly50swhoanticipateworkingatage65continuestoriseinrecentcohortsevenaswomen’slaborforceparticipationratesintheirearly50shasflattenedacrosscohorts.Thesefindingsindicateafurtherincreaseintheparticipationratesofolderwomen.12Thereasonforthedifferenceinparticipationatolderagesisnotclearsinceeachsurveyissupposedtocoverthoseinnursinghomesandsimilarcareunits.TheHRS,inaddition,hasalowerfractionofwomenwhostatetheyneverhadafirstbirth.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-9-
factorsdeterminedlargelypriortotheretirementoption.Thesevariablescaninclude
educationalattainment,numberandagesofchildrenandearlierlifecyclelaborforce
participation.Wewillalsoconsiderthedegreetowhichtheindividualhadrelativelyhigh
earningswhenemployed,whichwetermthe“careercondition.”Theselargely
predeterminedcharacteristicswillbemeasuredinourempiricalworkpriortoaroundage
55whereastheretirementoptionisconsideredfromages59to63.
Theretirementdecisionmayinsteadbedeterminedprimarilybyfactorsthatare
contemporaneous,suchasasetofshocksortransitoryfactors.Thesefactorsmayhave
servedtoincreaseparticipationatolderyearsinthepost-1980speriodandmayinclude
maritalstatuschange,fluctuationsinthevaluerealestateorfinancialassets,pension
losses,reductionsinSocialSecuritypayments,anddeterioratinghealthstatus.
Theevidencepointstoalargeimpactofchangesinthepredeterminedfactors.
Educationreducescohortdifferencesinlaborforceparticipationfromages59to63by
aboutahalf.Lifecyclelaborforceparticipationfrom35to44yearsproducesan
overshootingofthecohorteffects.Ourmeasureofhighcareerearningsdoesnotperform
betterthanthesimplermeasureoflifecycleparticipation.
Oncethesevariablesareconsidered,addinginformationonthenumberandbirth
yearsofchildrenhasnoimpact.Childrenservetoreduceparticipationinthe25to44-year
rangebuthavenoseparateeffectinlaterlife.13Themanycontemporaneousfactors
mentionedarerelatedtothevariancewithincohortsbutdonotdomuchtoexplain
changesacrosscohorts.
Theoneinterestinganomalyconcernsthemostrecentofthecohortsofcollege
graduatewomenthatcanbefollowedtotheirsixties.Thosebornfrom1949to1951have
higherparticipationatages59to63evengivenmeasuresoftheirlifecycleparticipation
priortoage55andtheireducationalattainment.Thatis,thecohorteffectforthe1949to
13LumsdaineandVermeer(2015)findthatagrandchild’sarrivalincreasesthehazardofawoman’sretirementindependentofheropportunitycost.Itisnotclearthatthepartialortotalgrandchildeffecthasdecreasedwithtime,thusthatitcanhelptoexplaintheworkinglongerphenomenon.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-10-
1951groupremainssignificantevenincludingthevariouspredeterminedfactors,
includinglifecycleparticipation.
Thefindingthatlatercohortshavehigherparticipationgiventheirearlierlifecycle
participationmaybeusefulinforecastingwhatmorerecentcohortswillbedoingwhen
theyreachtheirsixties.Recallthatlaborforceparticipationratesacrossthelifecyclehave
becomerelativelyflatfromages25to45andthatthemostrecentcohortsofwomendonot
alwayshavehigherparticipationcomparedwithpreviouscohorts.Infact,themostrecent
dataindicateabacktrackingofyoungercohortsofwomenintheirforties.Thatis,forthe
collegegraduategroup,aswellasforothers,participationrateshavenotincreasedrelative
topriorcohortsandhaveevendecreasedatvariousages.
Thefindingaboutthosebornbetween1949and1951mayindicatethat
participationratesforevenyoungercohortsmaybehigherstillintheirsixtiesand
seventiesthanpriorgenerationsatleastforcollegeeducatedwomen.
Toexploretheroleofcohortandpredeterminedvariables,datafromtheHealthand
RetirementStudy(HRS)areusedtogetherwithinformationontheearningshistoryofthe
respondentsfromSocialSecurityearningsdataandW-2forms(startingwith1980).14Each
oftherespondentstotheHRS,beginningwiththefirstcohortsin1992,wasaskedwhether
herSocialSecurityearningshistorycouldbelinked.Iftheindividualagreedtothelinkage,
thenallpastrecordswerelinked.15Ifnot,thentheindividualwasaskedagaininthe
subsequentbiennialsurvey.Therefore,theoldercohortshadmorechancestoagreetoa
linkagethantheyoungercohortsandlinkageratesarehigherinconsequence.
Acrossallcohortsabout80percentofrespondentsagreedtothelinkagewithSocial
14TheW-2dataarealsoprovidedfor1977-79butareincompleteintheHRS-SSAlinkeddata.15AcuriousaspectoftheHRSisthatuntil2006individualswereaskedeveryyeariftheywouldcontinuethelinkagetotheSocialSecurityearningsdata.Ifatanypointtheydecidednotto,thepriordatawereallowedbutthecontemporaneousandfuturedatawerenot.FormostHRSrespondents,thebreakinthelinkagewillnotmattersincetheHRSitselfcollectedinformationonlaborsupplyandearnings.ButthebreakwillmatterforaspousewhoenteredtheHRSatayoungerageandwhowasfoldedwhentheindividual’sbirthcohortrelevantHRScohortwasadded.SeeAppendix,especiallythesectionSocialSecurityEarningsRecordLinkageintheHRS,fordetails.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-11-
Security(andW-2)records.Forbirthcohortsfrom1931to1945theresponserateranges
from85to90percent;therangeis71to79percentforbirthcohortsfrom1946to1951.
(LinkageratesaregiveninAppendixTableA1bybirthcohort.)Whenweuseinformation
onlifecyclelaborforceparticipation,wemustrestrictthesampletoindividualswhogave
permissiontohavetheirSocialSecurityearnings(andW-2forms)linked.Otherwisethe
fullHRSsampleisused,givenageandotherrestrictionsthatmayapply.
Wemainlyexplorelaborforceparticipationratesofwomen59to63yearsoldand
alwaysincludethree-yearbirthcohortdummies.WebegininTable2,cols.(1)to(5)by
includingcharacteristicslargelydeterminedpriortoage55,suchaseducational
attainmentandlifecycleparticipationduringvariousintervals.16Weaddincol.(6)current
maritalstatusandasummarymeasureofcurrenthealthstatus.
Table3dividesthegroupintotwoeducationlevels,collegegraduatesandthose
whodidnotgraduatecollege.17Cols.(1)to(4)ofTable3includethepredetermined
characteristicsandcols.(5)and(6)addcurrentmaritalstatusandhealthstatus.Table4
includesonlycollegegraduatewomen.Inadditiontothepreviousvariables,weadd
informationonwhethertheindividualwaseverateacher.About45percentofcollege
graduatewomeninthe1930scohortswereteachersformuchoftheirworkinglifetimes
andteachersgenerallyhaddefined-benefitpensions.
TheuseoftheHRSlinkedtotheSocialSecurityearningsrecords(calledthe“linked”
sample)reducesthenumberofobservations,lesssofortheearlierthanforthemore
recentcohortsaspreviouslymentioned.WhenweusethedatawithSocialSecurity
earningsweadjusttheHRSpersonweightsforselectionintothelinkedsample.18InTables
16Theadditionofvariablesforchildreneverbornaddsnoexplanatorypowerforolderwomen’slaborforceparticipationafterincludingcontrolsforearlierlifecycleparticipation.Thus,wedonotreportspecificationsaddingcontrolsforchildren.17SimilarregressionstothoseinTable3forwomen56to58yearsoldareinAppendixTableA5.18Theadjustmentmultipliesthepersonweightbytheinverseofthepredictedlinkagerate,basedonindividualpredeterminedcharacteristicsatthetimeoftheirbirthcohort’sentryintotheHRS.LinkageratesarepredictedusingalogitmodelforwhetherthewomanallowedthelinkageonHRScohortwavedummiesandHRSmeasuresofemploymenthistory,race,maritalstatus,educationandfinancialwealthatHRScohortentry.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-12-
2and4weexplorethesensitivityoftheresultstousingthefullHRSsampleandthelinked
sample.BecausetheHRSisalongitudinaldataset,manyoftherespondentsareinthe
samplemorethanoncebetweentheagesof59and63andweclusterthestandarderrors
attheindividuallevel.Wealsoincludedummyvariablesforthesingle-yearages.
InTable2,col.(1)thebaselineregressionisprovidedforthefullsampleandcol.(2)
givesthebaselineforthesmallerlinkedsample.Thevariablesofinterestarethose
showingtheeffectofbirthcohortinthree-yearbinsfrom1931to1951(where1931-33is
theomittedcohortgroup).19
Theimpactsofbirthcohortonlaborforceparticipationfromages59to63are
highlysimilarbetweenthetwosamplesandbothdemonstratetheincreaseinparticipation
atolderagesforbirthcohortsafter1943andespeciallyafter1949.Themostrecentcohort
thatcanbeanalyzedforthe59to63-year-oldgroup,bornfrom1949-51,hasa
participationratethatisaround10percentagepointshigherinthefullsample(9forthe
linkedsample)thanforcohortsborninthe1930s.Theonlyadditionalcovariatesincluded
inthefirsttwocolumnsaresingleyearofageandracedummies.
Educationalattainmentisaddedincol.(3)andlifecycleparticipationbetweenages
35and44isincludedincol.(4).Thelifecyclelaborforcevariablesgivethefractionofyears
intheintervalthatthewomanwasinthelaborforce.Thesehavebeencomputedmainly
fromtherestricted-accessSocialSecurityearningsdata(since1951)andW-2forms(when
available).AdditionalinformationisusedfromtheHRStoaddlaborforcedatafor
individualsexemptfromSocialSecuritytaxesgenerallybecausetheyweregovernment
employees,suchasteachers.TheHRSprovidesinformationconcerningtwoperiodsprior
tothestartoftheHRSinterviewsinwhichtherespondentwasagovernmentemployee.
WhenHRSsurveyresponsesareavailableregardingparticipation,theyareusedinplaceof
SocialSecurityearningsandW-2data.(Formoredetails,seeAppendix:Constructionof
Variables.)Variouslifecycleemploymentvariableswerecreatedforeachofthethree
decadesfromage25to54andfortheentireperiod.
19ThelastyearoftheHRSavailableis2012.The1952-54cohortisincompleteandthusisomitted.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-13-
Theadditionofeducationalattainmenteliminatestheeconomicandstatistical
significanceofthecohortcoefficientsforallbutthemostrecentofthebirthcohorts.
Althoughonlythelinkedsamplecoefficientsaregiven,thoseforthefullsamplechangein
thesamemanner.Theadditionofthelifecycleparticipationvariableincol.(4)further
reducesthecoefficientforthemostrecentofthebirthcohortstoaslightlynegativevalue.
Italsoproducessomemodestreductionoftheimpactofeducationalattainmentsincethe
moreeducatedhavegreatercontinuityinemployment.
Insteadofavariablethatmeasureslifecycleparticipation,onethatmeasuresthe
degreetowhichawomanreachessomecareerlevelmaybemoreimportantin
determiningfutureparticipation.Sincewomenwithgreaterprioremploymentwhenfirst
beginningtheircareershavegreaterattachmenttothelaborforcelaterinthelives,those
withhigherearningswhenemployedshouldhaveevengreaterattachment.
Totestwhetheremploymentperseoryearsofbetterearningperformancematter
wecreateavariablegivingthefractionofanageintervalthata“careercondition”wasmet.
Theconditionusedhereisachievinganearningslevelthatissomefraction(50percentin
thiscase)ofthemedianearningsofafull-time,year-roundmaleworkerfortheten-year
agegroupconsideredduringtherelevantperiod.20Thatis,thecareerconditionfora
womanwhenshewasinanagegroupisjudgedrelativetotheearningsofthemedianmale
inthesameagegroupduringtheidenticalperiod.Womenwhowereneverinthelabor
forceintheageintervalareassignedavalueofzero,asdothosewhoneverearnedmore
thantheconditionbutwereinthelaborforce.Wefindthatthevariablegivingthecareer
condition,incol.(5),isrelatedtolateremploymentbutlessstronglythanthesimpler
variablegivingthefractionoftheintervalawomanwasemployed.
20Earningsofthemedianmale,inthesameagegroupandyear,areused.Thesedataareavailableinpublisheddocuments(U.S.CensusBureauP-60Reports)priortothemicro-datafortheCPS,whichbeginsin1962.Thecalculationofallthecareerconditionsconsideredrequiresdatafrom1956(1931+25years).Afractionofthemalemedianisusedbecausethemedianistoohighabarforemployedwomenduringmuchoftheperiodconsidered.Womenintheexemptoccupationsareassumedtoexceedthebar.SeeAppendix:HealthandRetirementSurvey:ConstructionofVariables.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-14-
Col.(6)augmentsthecol.(4)specificationbyaddingtwocontemporaneous
variables:currentmaritalstatusandcurrenthealthstatus.Thebirthcohortcoefficients
werealreadyextinguishedwithcontrolsforeducationandearlierlifecycleparticipation,
andtheaddedcontemporaneousvariableshavelittlefurtherimpactonthecohorteffects.
Theadditionofhealthstatusreducestheimpactofeducationand,inmostinstances,
almosthalvestheschoolinglevelcoefficientsincol.(4).Themorehighlyeducatedarealso
thehealthiestor,atleast,theyconsiderthemselvestobeso.Thecoefficientonearlier
lifecycleparticipationremainssubstantialandisonlyslightlyreduced.
Itisusefultoexploretheimpactofcurrentmaritalstatusevenifitdoeslittleto
changethebirthcohortcoefficients.Beingcurrentlymarrieddecreasesparticipationfor
olderwomenbuttheeffectisreducedifthewoman’sspouseisemployedandthetotal
impactisaboutequaltothatoftheomittedgroup(nevermarried)andtowidowed
women.21Divorcedwomenhaveparticipationratesabout8percentagepointshigherthan
thebasegroupofnevermarriedwomen.22
Disaggregatingbyeducation,asinTable3,revealssubstantialdifferencesbetween
thehigher(collegegraduate)andlower(belowacollegegraduate)educatedgroupsinthe
correlatesoftheirlateremployment.Notethatwithinthecollegegraduategroup,dummy
variablesareaddedfordegreesabovethebachelors(MAandthevariousgraduateand
professionaldegrees)and,withinthenon-collegegroup,dummyvariablesareaddedfor
highschooldiplomaandhavingsomecollege.
Theregressionsincols.(1)and(2)ofTable3includeonlycohorteffects(plusage,
raceandeducationdummies).Cohorteffectsforcollegegraduates(relativetothe1931-33
cohorts)aremodestbutthemostrecentofthecohortshasaparticipationrateabout12.6
percentagepointshigher.Forthegroupthatdidnotgraduatefromcollege,cohorteffects
areinsubstantial.Becausetherewasupgradingwithineachoftheeducationgroupsas
21Wediscuss,below,changesinthejointemploymentandretirementofcouples.22Notethatthemeanlaborforceparticipationrateforawomanage59,whoisotherraceandinthe1931-33birthcohortisgivenbytheconstanttermincol.(2).
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-15-
moreattendedcollege,participationratesfortheentiregroupincreasedbybirthcohort,
eventhoughwithineachofthegroupstherewasnobirthcohorttrend.
Incols.(3)and(4)weaddlifecycleparticipationvariablesincludingwhetherthe
womanwasneverinthelaborforceduringtheinterval.Theadditionofthelifecycle
measureshaslittleimpactonthecohorteffectforthecollegegraduatewomenbornmost
recently.Earlierlaborforceparticipationmattersmoreforthelesseducatedgroupthanfor
thecollegeeducated.Forcollegegraduates,whatmattersmostiswhetherthewomendid
notworkatallintheinterval,eventhoughthatgroupissmall.Themuchhigherlaborforce
participationforthe1949-51cohortofcollegegraduatewomenremainsunexplainedeven
withcontrolsforcurrentmaritalandhealthstatus,asseenincol.(6).
Lastly,Table4looksinmoredepthatcollegegraduatesinpartbecausetheir
participationratesarethehighestatallages,especiallyamongthoseintheirsixties.In
addition,thefractionofolderwomenwhoarecollegegraduateshasgreatlyexpandedand
willcontinuetodosogiventheincreaseofcollegegraduatesatyoungerages.Boththe
increaseofcollegegraduationforfuturecohortsandtheirhigherparticipationatolder
ageswouldimplyanincreaseinthefutureemploymentofolderwomen.
Table4includesthepredetermined(lifecycleparticipationandeducation)and
contemporaneous(maritalandhealthstatus)variables.Inaddition,weincludewhether
thewomanwaseveremployedasateacher.
CohorteffectsarelargeforthemostrecentinTable4,echoingthefindingfor
collegegraduatewomeninTable3.Thecoefficientremainslargeandstatistically
significantdespitetheinclusionofcurrentmaritalstatusandlifecycleparticipation
variables.Onlyincol.(5),withtheinclusionofthefractionofyearsfrom25to54thatthe
womanwasinthelaborforcedoesthecoefficientgreatlydecline.
Teachingwasthesinglemostimportantoccupationforcollegegraduatewomen
amongmanyofHRScohorts.Around45percentofcollegegraduatewomeninthecohorts
bornfrom1931to1941wereteachersatsomepoint,asseeninFigure6.Amuchsmaller
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-16-
fractionofwomen(around30percent)forthelatercohortsconsideredhere,1945to1951,
wereteachers.Andanevensmallerfraction(around20percent)wereteachersinthelate
1950sbirthcohort,agroupstilltooyoungtobeobservedintheirsixties.
Thosewhowereeverateacherhadparticipationrateswhentheywere59to63
yearsoldthatwereabout5percentagepointslowerthanothercollegegraduatewomen.
Theimpactofeverbeingateacherincreaseswhencontrollingforlifecycleparticipation,
showingthatteachersworkmorethanothersearlierintheirlivesbutarelesslikelyto
worklaterintheirlives.Theirearlierworkwouldindicatetheywouldbemorelikelyto
worklater,buttheyarelesslikely.Partofthereasonwhyteachershaveloweremployment
astheyageisduetotheirdefined-benefitpensions,andthustheirlong-termplanstoretire
afterafixedperiod.Otherpossibilitiesinclude“burnout”onthejobandlackof
advancement.23
TheTable4analysisreinforcesthefindingsfromTable3thatthecohorteffectfor
themostrecentbirthgroupisnotextinguishedbytheothercovariatesevenwhenthe
lifecycleparticipationratevariableisincluded,asincols.(3),(4)and(5).Thecoefficient
forthe1949-51birthcohortisaround10to12percentagepoints,abitsmallerthan
withoutthe“everateacher”variablebutstilllargeandsignificant.
Anotherimportantfindingforforecastingwomen’sfutureparticipationatolder
agesisthatemploymentinthe45to54-year-oldrangeisthebestpredictorofwhetheran
individualwillremainemployedintoherearlysixties.Therefore,eventhoughparticipation
rateshavetwisted,asnotedinthediscussionofFigure5,thefactthatparticipationisstill
higherforthemostrecentcohortswhentheyhavereachedtheirfiftiessuggeststhatrecent
cohortsofcollegegraduatewomenwillremaininthelaborforcethroughtheirsixtiesand
seventiesevenmorethandidtheirpredecessors.Thesamedoesnotappeartrueforthe
non-collegegraduategroup.
23Fitzpatrick(ThisVolume)exploresreasonsforthedecreaseinemploymentatolderagesamongthosewhowereeverateacher.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-17-
WehavealsorunthesameregressionsasinTables2,3,and4wheretheoutcomeis
workingfull-time,ratherthanjustbeinginthelaborforce.Theresults(giveninAppendix
TableA4fortheTable3comparison)forfull-timework,forbothcollegegraduatesand
thosebelowcollegegraduationlevel,revealsimilarcohorttrends.24Thus,thecross-cohort
increasesinlaborforceparticipationforolderwomenaresubstantiallydrivenbyincreases
infull-timework.ThesefindingsareconsistentwiththosefromtheCPS,giveninFigure4,
showinganincreaseinthefractionoffemalelaborforceparticipantsemployedfulltime
amongthose55to74yearsold.
Whatabouttheroleofjobenjoyment?TheHRSallowsustoexploretheanswerfor
women59to63-year-oldforwhominformationexistsontheirattitudetowardstheirjob
sixyearspreviously.Becauseoftherestrictiononhavingajobsixyearsago,weomitthe
earlierbirthcohortsandincludethosebornfrom1937to1951.Weaskhowawoman’s
attitudeaboutherjobsixyearsearlierimpactshercontemporaneousemployment.The
attitudevariableinquiredinallyearsexcept1992whetheranemployedpersonenjoyed
herjobalotornotatallinfourgradationsofstrength.
Wepresenttheanalysisinseveralways.InTable5cols.(1)to(5)weincludeall
whowereemployedsixyearsbeforeandincol.(6)weaddthosenotemployedsixyears
previouslyandgivethemaseparatedummyforthejobattituderesponse.Cols.(1),(2),(4)
and(6)containthebasicvariablesandcols.(3)and(5)addthelifecyclelaborforce
variable,maritalstatus,spousalworkandhealthstatus.
Col.(1)providesbaselineresultsexcludingtheattitudevariablebutusingthesame
samplelimitedtothoseemployedsixyearsago.Cols.(4)and(5)explorethecharacteristics
ofthejobheldsixyearspriorbyaddingthatthehoursandearningsonthatjob.
Thosewhohadexpressedgreaterenjoymentabouttheirjobssixyearspreviously24WealsorunthesamelaborforceregressionsasinTables2,3,and4forwomen56to58yearsoldandgivetheTable3resultsinAppendixTableA5.Usingwomen56to58yearsoldallowsustoincludeanotherbirthcohort,1952-54.LiketheTable3results,collegegraduatewomenincohortsbornafter1948showlargercohorteffectsthanforearliercohorts.Includingthefullsetofpre-existingcharacteristicslowersthecohorteffectestimatesforthemorerecentcohortsatage56to58somewhatmorethanfortheoldergroupofwomeninTable3.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-18-
haveahigherprobabilityofbeinginthelaborforcefrom59to63yearsold.25The
differences,moreover,arelarge:10percentagepoints(onabaseofaround70)between
thosewhoagreeanddisagreewiththestatementand20to22percentagepointsbetween
thosewhostronglydisagreeandthosewhoagreeorstronglyagree.26
Theadditionofthejobattitudequestionresultsinfewchangesintheother
coefficients.Mostimportantisthattheimpactofeducationisaboutthesame,ascanbe
seenbycomparingthecoefficientsforeducationincols.(1)and(2).Therefore,theimpact
ofjobenjoymentaddstotheinfluenceonworkinglongerofthetypeofjobsthatmore
highlyeducatedwomenhave.Self-reportedjobenjoymentisnotthemediatingfactorfor
whyeducationmattersinwomen’sworkinglonger.
Theresultsarenotmateriallyalteredbytheadditionofvariouscovariatesincluding
currenthealth,maritalstatusandthefractionofyearsthewomanworkedfromage35to
44.Alsoofinterestisthattheadditionsofthehoursandearningsinthejobsixyearsprior
havelittleimpactontheattitudinalcoefficients.Thosewhoworkedlongerhoursinthe
pastaremorelikelytoworknow,andthatisinadditiontotheirenjoymentonthatjob.
Thesummaryfindingisthatolderwomenhavehadsubstantialincreasesinlabor
forceparticipation.Theinclusionofcovariates,suchaseducationandlifecycle
participation,reducesthepatternofrisingcohorteffects.Butforthecollegegraduate
group,thelaborforceincreaseforthemostrecentcohortsnowintheirsixtiesisnot
reducedbytheinclusionoftheadditionalcovariates.Themostrecentcohortswithless
thancollegecompletion,however,havehadsmallerincreasesandthesedoget
extinguishedwiththeexpandedsetofpredeterminedcovariates(detailededucation
attainmentandearlierlaborforceparticipation),althoughtheincreaseineducationwithin
thenon-collegegraduategroupservedtoincreaseparticipationrates.
25Wehavealsodonethesameregressionsforworkeightyearspreviouslywithsimilarresults.26Thefractionagreeingwiththestatementaboutenjoyingacurrentjobislarge,around60percent.Anadditional25to30percentstronglyagreedwiththestatement.Onlyabout10to15percentdidnotagreewiththestatementandcollegegraduatewomenhadasomewhatlargerfractionwhogreatlyagreedwiththestatement.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-19-
Anotherfindingofnoteisthatjobenjoymentsixyearsearlierhasastronginfluence
onwomen’slateremployment.Asjobsbecomelessonerousandmoreenjoyableandas
occupationsbecomepartofone’sidentity,womenworklonger.
C. Lifecycle Labor Force Participation
Giventheimportanceoflifecyclelaborforceparticipationforlaterwork,wenow
explorehowlifetimeemploymentchangedacrosscohortsbornfrom1931to1954.27We
dividelifetimeemploymentintofivequintiles—from0to20percentoftheyearsunder
considerationto80to100percent.Figure7,partA,showsthepercentageinthelabor
forceinthefivequintilescoveringthe30yearsfromage25to54forallwomen.PartB
givesthesefiguresforthegroupintheyoungestten-yeargrouping,25to34yearsold.To
avoidcomplicatingthefigure,weshowonlytheearliestandthemostrecentcohorts:1931-
1936and1949-1954intwo-yearbrackets.
Thefractionofwomeninthelaborforce80to100percentofthetimewhenthey
were25to54yearsoldexpandedfrom20percenttomorethan50percentacrossthese
cohorts(seeFigure7,partA).Theflipsideisthesharpdecreaseofthosewhospentfewer
than20percentofthe30-yearperiodshowninthelaborforce.Themiddlethreequintiles
changedlittleintermsofthefractionofthetotal.
Moreextremechangesoccurredforwomeninthe25to34-year-oldgroup(see
Figure7,partB)thanfortheotherten-yearagegroups(notshown).Onceagain,the
middlethreequintilesshowlittlechange.Allthechangearisesbecauseofanincreasein
thehighestandadecreaseinthelowestquintiles.
Theearliestcohortsshownhadlifecycleparticipationratesthatwerealmost
uniformlydistributedacrossthequintiles.Butbythe1949to1954cohortsabout50
percentwereinthelaborforceformorethan80percentofthe30yearsandfewwerein
thelaborforceforlessthan20percentoftheinterval.
27ForadetaileddiscussionoflifecyclelaborforceparticipationseeGoldinandMitchell(2017).
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-20-
Tomakesenseoftheselifecycletrajectories,theconceptsofheterogeneityand
homogeneitywillbeuseful.28Whenparticipationratesforabirthcohortincreasewithage,
allwomeninthecohortcouldbeworkingmoreweeksperyearormorewomencouldbe
enteringthelaborforce.Thatis,changecouldbeattheintensiveorextensivemargins(ora
combination).Thegroupthatexhibitsmoreoftheformeristermed“homogeneous,”since
allwomenareincreasingtheirworklevel,andthegroupthatexhibitsmoreofthelatteris
termed“heterogeneous,”becauseonlysomewomenincreasetheirparticipation.The
weightoftheevidencehistoricallyisthatmostwomenare“heterogeneous”andthat
persistenceissubstantial.
LookingbackattheconstructedcohortlinesinFigure5,themostrecentcohorts
displayflatandevensomewhatdecreasingparticipationratesovertheirbrieflifecycles.
Thatis,participationratesarehigherattheloweragesthanatthemiddle.Butifmost
workingwomenpersistinthelaborforce,thenthefindingthatearlyparticipationmatters
significantlyimpliesthatthereductioninparticipation,ortheabsenceofanincrease,for
themostrecentcohortsintheirmidyearswillnotmattermuchfortheiremploymentlater
inlife.Thekeypointisthatforearliercohorts,womenwhoentered(orreentered)the
laborforceinmid-lifewereprobablytheleastpersistent.
D. Working Women, Working Couples
Theregressionsrevealedacommonlyknownrelationshipthatcouplesgenerally
worktogetherandenjoyleisureandconsumptiontogether.Currentlymarriedwomenare
farmorelikelytobeinthelaborforceintheirolderyearsiftheirhusbandsarealso
working.IntheTable2,col.(6)regression,marriedwomenwithaworkingspouseare20
percentagepointsmorelikelytobeinthelaborforcethanareothermarriedwomen.
Figure8demonstratestwoadditionalpoints.Thedatausethreecategoriesof
women59to63yearsold:thosecurrentlymarriedwithahusbandworking,those
28SeeGoldin(1989)andHeckmanandWillis(1977)ontheconceptsofheterogeneityandhomogeneityappliedtolaborforceparticipationoverthelifecycle.Olivetti(2006)modelsanunderlyingreasonforgreaterpersistenceinthereturnstoexperienceanddemonstratestheincreasedreturnsfromthe1970stothe1990s.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-21-
currentlymarriedwithanon-workinghusbandandthosenotcurrentlymarried.
Participationratesofallcurrentlymarriedwomenroserelativetothethirdgroup.In
addition,theratesforcurrentlymarriedwomenwithaworkingspouseincreasedthemost.
Agreaterfractionofmarriedcouplestodayarebothworkingratherthanbeing
retiredtogetherwhereas20yearsagoagreaterpercentagewasretiredtogether.29For
marriedcouplesinwhichthewifewasbornfrom1931to1936,34percentwereboth
retiredand25percentwerebothworkingwhenshewas59to63yearsold.Those
fractionshavechangedtojust22percentretiredtogetherforthemostrecentcohorts
(1949to1951birthyears)and41percentbothworking.Furthermore,inthemostrecent
cohortsanalmostequalfractionhadthewifeworkingandthehusbandnotworking(18
percent)ashadthehusbandworkingandthewifenotworking(19percent).
E. Concluding Remarks
Wehaveexploredtheincreaseinthelaborforceparticipationofolderwomen.Our
mainfindingsandconclusionsregarding“womenworkinglonger”are:
• Increasedparticipationofwomenfromtheirlatefiftiesandbeyondbeganinthelate
1980s,beforetheriseinoldermen’slaborforceparticipationandlongbeforethe
economicdownturnsofthe2000s,especiallytheGreatRecession.
• Theincreaseshavebeenlarge.Amongwomen60-64yearsold,participation
increasedfrom34to51percentduringthelast25yearsandfrom45to61percent
forcollegegraduates.
• Increasedlaborforceparticipationofolderwomenhasbeendisproportionatelyfor
thoseworkingfull-timeandfull-year.
• Womenwhoworkedmorewhenyoung,workmorewhentheyareolder.
• Womenareworkinglongernotmainlybecauseofaninsufficiencyinretirement
savings,althoughthatisanimportantissueformanyinrecentyears.Betterhealth
29Thesefindingsareconsistentwiththecomplementarityoftheleisuretimeofolderhusbandsandwives.Schirle(2008)demonstrates,forthreecountries,thattheincreaseinwomen’slaborforceparticipationatolderageshasledtoincreasedmen’sparticipation.SeealsoBlau(1998).
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-22-
isamediatingfactor;thosewithlowwealtharefarmoreofteninworsephysical
condition.
• Agreaterfractionofmarriedcouplesarenowworkingtogetherratherthanbeing
retiredtogether,whereas20yearsagoagreaterfractionofcoupleswereboth
retired.
• Womenwhoenjoyedtheirjobssixtoeightyearsbeforetheirsixties,arefarmore
likelytoremainemployed.
Whataboutthefutureofwomenworkinglonger?Thetwo-decadestagnationof
participationratesforwomenintheirthirtiesandfortiescouldindicatethatincreasesat
laterageswillnotcontinue.Butthestagnationmaynotimpactworkinglongerbecause
therehavebeenupticksforcohortsintheirfortiesandthereisanincreasedfractionofthe
populationwhoarecollegegraduates.Thecohorteffectforcollegegraduatesinthemost
recentbirthcohortthatcanbeexplored,thatfrom1949to1951,remainslargeand
statisticallysignificantevenaftercontrollingforearlierlaborforceparticipation.The
currentchallengeistounderstandhowthevariousfactorsincludedinouranalysisare
likelytoimpactthelaborforceparticipationofcurrentcohortsastheyage.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-23-
Figure1:FemaleLaborForceParticipationbyFive-YearAgeGroups,1962to2014
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2014.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-5950-54
45-49
35-39
40-44
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-24-
Figure2:FemaleLaborForceParticipationbyFive-YearAgeGroupsforCurrentlyMarriedCollegeGraduates,1965to2013(three-yearcenteredmovingaverages)
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.
0.0
0.1
0.2
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0.5
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-5445-49
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-25-
Figure3:GenderGapinLaborForceParticipationatOlderAges,1962to2014:CPS
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2014.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
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1.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
55-59 F 60-64 F 55-59 M 60-64 M
Female, 55-59
Female, 60-64
Male, 55-59
Male, 60-64
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-26-
Figure4:WomenEmployedFull-Time,Full-YearamongLaborForceParticipantsduringtheYear,1963to2013:CPS
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.Notes:Bothnumeratoranddenominatorrefertothecalendaryear.A“laborforceparticipantduringtheyear”isanyonewhoworkedduringtheyear.Three-yearcenteredmovingaveragesareshown.Full-time,full-yearworkersarethosewhoworked40ormoreweeksand35ormorehoursperweek.
0.0
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-27-
Figure5:LaborForceParticipationRatesforWomenbyFive-YearBirthCohorts(1930-34to1970-74)andFive-YearAgeGroups(25-29to74-79years):CPS
A.AllEducationGroups
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54
1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-28-
B.CollegeGraduates
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.
Notes:Everydatapointineachgraphcontains25birthyearsandages.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54
1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-29-
Figure6:FractionofCollegeGraduateWomenEverEmployedinTeaching,for1931to1959BirthCohorts:HRS
Source:HRS,RestrictedAccessData.Notes:“Everemployedinteaching”iscalculatedwithcodeprovidedbyMariaFitzpatrick(seeFitzpatrick,ThisVolume),whichusesdetailedoccupationsofrespondentspriortotheirfirstHRSinterview.Thedashedlineisthethree-yearcenteredmovingaverage.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
3-year moving average
Ever a teacher
BirthYear
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-30-
Figure7:LifecycleLaborForceParticipationintheHRSandSocialSecurityEarningsDataforSelectedBirthCohorts
A.AllWomen,25to54Years
B.AllWomen,25to34Years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0-20 >20-40 >40-60 >60-80 >80-100
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1950s
1930s
1950s
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40
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60
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1931-32 1933-34 1935-36 1949-50 1951-52 1953-54
1930s
1950s1930s
1950s
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-31-
SourceandNotes:Figuresgivethedistributionofyearsspentinthelaborforcebywomeninvariouscohortsandbyagegroup.Laborforceparticipationisdefinedashavingatleastoneofthefollowing:(a)havingSSearningsabove(10hours´52weeks´minimumwageinthatyear)intheyearspriortotheHRSsurveyoftherespondent;(b)RespondingintheHRSthatthepersonwas“inthelaborforce”whenthepersonhasapositiveHRSweight;(c)HavingW-2earningsaboveminimumyearlywageinthatyear;(d)Workingforthestate,federalormunicipalgovernmentinyearspriortotheHRSsurvey.HRSpersonweightsareusedadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-32-
Figure8:LaborForceParticipationbyYearofBirth,CurrentMaritalStatusandHusband’sEmploymentfor59to63-Year-OldWomen
Source:HRSNotes:Allwomen59to63yearsoldareincluded;HRSpersonweightsapplied.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950
SpouseWorking SpouseNotWorking NotCurrentlyMarried
NotCurrentlyMarried
BirthYear
SpouseNotWorking
SpouseWorking
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-33-
Table1:LaborForceParticipationRatesforMalesandFemales,55to74Years:CPSAgeGroup EducationalGroup LaborForceParticipation
RateinPercentagePointChange
c.1988toc.20131987-89 2012-14
Women 55-59 All 0.522 0.673 15.1 Collegegraduates 0.685 0.779 9.4 Non-collegegrad. 0.499 0.627 12.8 60-64 All 0.341 0.514 17.3 Collegegraduates 0.454 0.612 15.8 Non-collegegrad. 0.330 0.472 14.3 65-69 All 0.153 0.276 12.3 Collegegraduates 0.240 0.367 12.7 Non-collegegrad. 0.145 0.244 9.9 70-74 All 0.072 0.157 8.6 Collegegraduates 0.130 0.214 8.3 Non-collegegrad. 0.066 0.142 7.5 Men 55-59 All 0.796 0.779 -1.8 Collegegraduates 0.886 0.896 1.0 Non-collegegrad. 0.773 0.728 -4.6 60-64 All 0.548 0.607 5.9 Collegegraduates 0.682 0.727 4.5 Non-collegegrad. 0.516 0.543 2.8 65-69 All 0.258 0.380 12.2 Collegegraduates 0.402 0.491 8.9 Non-collegegrad. 0.231 0.321 9.0 70-74 All 0.155 0.232 7.7 Collegegraduates 0.254 0.324 7.0 Non-collegegrad. 0.141 0.191 5.0 Sources:CPS-ASECmicro-dataMarch1987,1988,1989,2012,2013,and2014.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-34-
Table2:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAge59-63Years,AllEducationGroups:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years
Full
Sample LinkedSample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.00810 -0.0110 -0.0139 -0.0158 -0.0128 -0.0143 (0.0192) (0.0207) (0.0203) (0.0197) (0.0201) (0.0186) 1937-39 0.0141 0.00448 0.000715 -0.0146 -0.00357 -0.00521 (0.0191) (0.0206) (0.0202) (0.0199) (0.0202) (0.0186) 1940-42 0.0163 0.0137 -0.00832 -0.0354 -0.0178 -0.0312 (0.0203) (0.0218) (0.0211) (0.0206) (0.0210) (0.0195) 1943-45 0.0464* 0.0320 -0.00461 -0.0402 -0.0184 -0.0321 (0.0229) (0.0247) (0.0239) (0.0235) (0.0237) (0.0223) 1946-48 0.0635** 0.0529* 0.00327 -0.0389 -0.0141 -0.0257 (0.0217) (0.0240) (0.0238) (0.0235) (0.0238) (0.0220) 1949-51 0.0973*** 0.0888*** 0.0300 -0.0110 0.0120 0.000839 (0.0217) (0.0259) (0.0250) (0.0246) (0.0249) (0.0234)Highschoolgrad. 0.161*** 0.121*** 0.141*** 0.0583***
(0.0180) (0.0176) (0.0180) (0.0171)Somecollege 0.251*** 0.199*** 0.217*** 0.106***
(0.0205) (0.0202) (0.0207) (0.0195)Collegegraduate 0.295*** 0.237*** 0.251*** 0.115***
(0.0252) (0.0252) (0.0260) (0.0250)MA 0.348*** 0.280*** 0.292*** 0.159***
(0.0288) (0.0286) (0.0298) (0.0276)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.468*** 0.364*** 0.400*** 0.227***
(0.0458) (0.0453) (0.0458) (0.0451)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.233*** 0.216*** (0.0174) (0.0165)Careercond.35-44 0.128*** (0.0195) Currentlymarried -0.157***
(0.0309)Divorced 0.0806*
(0.0321)Widow 0.0113
(0.0324)SpouseinLF 0.186***
(0.0146)Healthstatus no no no no no yesAgedummies Yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-35-
Racedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
Constant 0.456*** 0.430*** 0.326*** 0.261*** 0.323*** 0.165***
(0.0331) (0.0394) (0.0365) (0.0367) (0.0366) (0.0426) N 18,383 15,431 15,431 15,431 15,431 15,431R-squared 0.028 0.029 0.073 0.104 0.082 0.183Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>)andthecareercondition(Careercond.<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.The“linkedsample”indicatesthattheindividualgavepermissionforSocialSecurityearningsdatatobelinked.Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforce,careercondition35-44,andhealthstatus.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweights;theweightsareadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsampleincols.(2)to(6).Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-36-
Table3:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAges59to63,byEducation:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.0234 0.0308 -0.0263 0.0346 -0.0246 0.0390 (0.0219) (0.0522) (0.0212) (0.0506) (0.0200) (0.0472) 1937-39 -0.00195 0.0182 -0.0218 0.0234 -0.0102 0.0182 (0.0217) (0.0543) (0.0212) (0.0545) (0.0197) (0.0521) 1940-42 -0.0133 0.0357 -0.0441* 0.0188 -0.0388 0.0160 (0.0231) (0.0515) (0.0223) (0.0506) (0.0212) (0.0475) 1943-45 -0.0101 0.0509 -0.0468 0.0219 -0.0370 0.0212 (0.0266) (0.0537) (0.0260) (0.0542) (0.0245) (0.0526) 1946-48 -0.00304 0.0589 -0.0470 0.0235 -0.0345 0.0377 (0.0268) (0.0522) (0.0262) (0.0527) (0.0247) (0.0489) 1949-51 0.00557 0.126* -0.0389 0.103* -0.0210 0.0980* (0.0291) (0.0498) (0.0287) (0.0504) (0.0272) (0.0486)Highschoolgrad. 0.158*** 0.115*** 0.0520**
(0.0180) (0.0176) (0.0172) Somecollege 0.249*** 0.193*** 0.101*** (0.0205) (0.0202) (0.0197) MA 0.0502 0.0420 0.0370 (0.0316) (0.0313) (0.0295)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.167*** 0.136** 0.111*
(0.0483) (0.0492) (0.0489)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.208*** 0.0739 0.192*** 0.0709 (0.0273) (0.0573) (0.0254) (0.0589)NeverinLF35-44 -0.0548* -0.153* -0.0522* -0.150* (0.0254) (0.0730) (0.0238) (0.0716)Currentlymarried -0.147*** -0.243***
(0.0350) (0.0649)Divorced 0.0613 0.119
(0.0368) (0.0638)Widow 0.00458 -0.00416
(0.0364) (0.0712)SpouseinLF 0.177*** 0.225***
(0.0160) (0.0357)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-37-
Constant 0.285*** 0.859*** 0.258*** 0.841*** 0.167** 0.638***
(0.0385) (0.0629) (0.0434) (0.0751) (0.0508) (0.0999) N 12,789 2,642 12,789 2,642 12,789 2,642R-squared 0.060 0.041 0.097 0.059 0.179 0.140Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatedegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-38-
Table4:LaborForceParticipationamongCollegeGraduateWomenatAges59to63:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years FullSample LinkedSample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)Yearofbirth 1934-36 0.00774 0.0272 0.0308 0.0458 0.0294 (0.0497) (0.0524) (0.0507) (0.0470) (0.0508) 1937-39 0.00217 0.0169 0.0221 0.0212 0.00996 (0.0503) (0.0543) (0.0544) (0.0508) (0.0538) 1940-42 0.0389 0.0327 0.0154 0.0193 0.00204 (0.0484) (0.0518) (0.0508) (0.0473) (0.0509) 1943-45 0.0370 0.0402 0.00983 0.0179 -0.0172 (0.0503) (0.0541) (0.0543) (0.0526) (0.0550) 1946-48 0.0465 0.0482 0.0114 0.0110 -0.0256 (0.0475) (0.0525) (0.0528) (0.0503) (0.0544) 1949-51 0.0957* 0.117* 0.0931 0.105* 0.0524 (0.0452) (0.0500) (0.0505) (0.0460) (0.0510)Everateacher -0.0477 -0.0483 -0.0545 -0.0892** -0.0591 (0.0288) (0.0315) (0.0309) (0.0294) (0.0305)MA 0.0538 0.0578 0.0504 0.0381 0.0405
(0.0296) (0.0326) (0.0322) (0.0306) (0.0319)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.160*** 0.164*** 0.133** 0.107** 0.111*
(0.0447) (0.0470) (0.0479) (0.0411) (0.0461)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.0673 (0.0573) NeverinLF35-44 -0.164* (0.0731) LifecycleLFP45-54 0.379*** (0.0710) NeverinLF45-54 -0.178 (0.0973) LifecycleLFP25-54 0.355*** (0.0655)Healthstatus no no no no noAgedummies yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yesMaritalstatusdummies yes yes yes yes yesJobstatusofhusband yes yes yes yes yesConstant 0.855*** 0.876*** 0.866*** 0.580*** 0.675***
(0.0591) (0.0629) (0.0755) (0.0857) (0.0708)
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-39-
N 3,137 2,642 2,642 2,642 2,642R-squared 0.040 0.044 0.062 0.141 0.080Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>)andthecareercondition(Careercond.<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.*Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.The“linkedsample”indicatesthattheindividualgavepermissionforSocialSecurityearningsdatatobelinked.Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;andotherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.TheregressionsareweightedbytheHRSpersonweights;theweightsareadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsampleincols.(2)to(5).Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-40-
Table5:RoleofPastWorkAttitudeforEmploymentofWomen59to63Years:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years Worked6YearsAgo All (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Enjoyjob6yrsago Stronglyagree 0.223** 0.203** 0.235** 0.212** 0.229** (0.0720) (0.0694) (0.0723) (0.0693) (0.0718) Agree 0.198** 0.189** 0.209** 0.198** 0.202** (0.0709) (0.0680) (0.0713) (0.0680) (0.0708) Disagree 0.101 0.0932 0.105 0.0983 0.103 (0.0710) (0.0686) (0.0715) (0.0686) (0.0709) Nojob6yrsago -0.322*** (0.0708)Yearofbirth 1940-42 0.00466 -0.00237 -0.0113 -0.0000308 -0.00691 -0.00659 (0.0253) (0.0255) (0.0243) (0.0255) (0.0243) (0.0182) 1943-45 -0.000282 -0.00518 -0.00894 0.000100 -0.0000508 -0.00147 (0.0281) (0.0281) (0.0271) (0.0280) (0.0270) (0.0210) 1946-48 0.00712 0.00303 0.00475 0.00565 0.0116 0.000706 (0.0285) (0.0285) (0.0270) (0.0286) (0.0271) (0.0213) 1949-51 0.0153 0.00815 0.0102 0.0157 0.0210 0.00376 (0.0290) (0.0291) (0.0282) (0.0289) (0.0280) (0.0224)Highschoolgrad. 0.0859** 0.0865** 0.0342 0.0799* 0.0304 0.0549**
(0.0326) (0.0325) (0.0329) (0.0325) (0.0329) (0.0199)Somecollege 0.145*** 0.138*** 0.0682* 0.130*** 0.0632 0.0972*** (0.0335) (0.0335) (0.0340) (0.0339) (0.0341) (0.0217)BA 0.164*** 0.153*** 0.0594 0.143*** 0.0550 0.119*** (0.0377) (0.0378) (0.0385) (0.0384) (0.0389) (0.0273)MA 0.218*** 0.210*** 0.118** 0.198*** 0.112** 0.171***
(0.0384) (0.0381) (0.0390) (0.0392) (0.0397) (0.0296)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.294*** 0.283*** 0.177** 0.257*** 0.165** 0.238***
(0.0505) (0.0516) (0.0550) (0.0539) (0.0569) (0.0445)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.0456 0.0165 (0.0265) (0.0271) (ln)Hours 0.0864*** 0.0775*** (0.0208) (0.0194) (ln)Earnings -0.00252 -0.00558 (0.00966) (0.00932) Healthstatus no no yes no yes noAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-41-
Maritalstatusdummies no no yes no yes noJobstatusofhusband no no yes no yes noConstant 0.560*** 0.385*** 0.293** 0.0942 0.0785 0.450***
(0.0652) (0.0936) (0.0991) (0.136) (0.136) (0.0794) N 5050 5050 5050 5050 5050 7736R-squared 0.032 0.041 0.104 0.051 0.112 0.288Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.Incols.(1)through(5)onlythosewithpositivepersonweightsandworkingsixyearsago(orwhohadamissingjobattitudequestion)areincluded;col.(6)includesthosenotworking.ForvariablesthatareidenticaltothoseinTables2to4,seenotestothosetables.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:“enjoyjob6yrsago”stronglydisagree;1937-39birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearethecoefficientsondummyvariablesforvariousmissingvariables.Theseincludemissing(orzero)hourssixyearsagoandmissingearningssixyearsago.Inaddition,thedummyvariableforthe“other”jobattitudecategory(togetherwiththesmallfractionofmissingobservationsforthatvariable)isomittedinthetable.“Enjoyjob6yrs.ago”isfromaquestionaskedofrespondentswithacurrentjobwhoareaskedtoexpressalevelofagreementwiththequestion“Ireallyenjoygoingtowork.”Cols.(4)and(5)add(ln)hours(hoursworkedperweekinmainjob)and(ln)annualearnings(sumofwageorsalaryincomeplusaddedpayandearningsfromasecondjobaswellasthosefromprofessionalpracticeortradeincome.Earningsaredeflatedto1992usingtheCPI.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-42-
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Fitzpatrick,Maria.“Teaching,TeachersPensions,andRetirementacrossRecentCohortsofCollegeGraduateWomen.”ThisVolume.
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GoldinandKatz,Appendix-44-
Appendix
HealthandRetirementStudy:GeneralComments
TheHealthandRetirementStudy(knownastheHRSandastheUniversityofMichiganHealthandRetirementStudy)isawidely-useddataset.Moreinformationcanbefoundat:http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/andinthevolumeAppendixontheHRS.
HealthandRetirementStudy:ConstructionofVariables
LifecycleLaborForceParticipation
Lifecyclelaborforceparticipationisintendedtomeasurethefractionofaperiodduringwhichtheindividualwasinthelaborforce.Thetimeperiodweconsiderisfrom25to54yearsandwesubdividethatintothreedecades.WeprimarilyusetheinformationfromtheSocialSecurityearningsrecords(andtheW-2formsafter1977)tofigureoutwhetheranindividualwasemployedduringayear.WecandothisonlyforindividualswhogavepermissiontotheHRStolinktheirsurveytotheirSocialSecurityearningsrecords.Onaverage80percentofthesampleagreetothislinkage.
Ingeneral,wedefinesomeoneasalaborforceparticipantifduringayeartheirannualearningswereatleastequaltothefederalminimumwageinthatyeartimes10hourstimes52weeks.ComplicationsarisebecausesomeindividualswereexemptfromtheSocialSecurityearningstax.Theseexemptemployeesweregenerallygovernmentworkersandforoursampleofwomen,teacherswouldhavebeenanimportantexemptcategory.DuringtheinitialinterviewtheHRSaskedwhethertheindividualhadbeenemployedbythegovernment(includingmunicipal,stateandfederalgovernmentpositions)andifthatwasthecase,thepersoncouldlisttwoperiodsofemployment.WecounttheindividualinthelaborforceifthepersondidnotpaytheSocialSecurityearningstaxinsomeyearbutstatedthattheiremploymentwasinthegovernmentforthatperiod.ItshouldbenotedthatwhentheW-2formsbecomeavailable,thereisnoproblemwithexemptstatussincetheformsincludeallW-2income.Inaddition,someHRSrespondentsweresurveyedwhentheywereintheirearlyfiftiesandweusetheHRSsurveydatawhenitexists.ThuswedeterminelaborforcestatusonthebasisofvariouspiecesofinformationincludingtheHRSsurvey,theSocialSecurityearningsrecordsandtheW-2forms.
CareerConditionVariable
Similartotheconstructionofthelifecyclelaborforcevariable,wecreatea“careercondition”variablethatassesseswhetherindividualswhowereinthelaborforceearnedabovesomeamount.Theamountisgivenbysomefraction(wehaveusedboth0.5and
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-45-
0.75)ofthemedianannualwageofa(full-time,full-year)maleworkerinthegivenyear.Becausetheperiodweareconsideringpredatesthemicro-datafortheCPS,weusethepublishedsurveystoobtainthemalemedianannualwage.Inourempiricalworkwedefinethecareerconditionbetweenages35and44years(“Careercond.35-44”)asthefractionofyearsintheageintervaltheindividualexceeded50percentoftheearningsofthemedianmalefull-time,full-yearworker.
EarningsdataforthiscalculationareobtainedprimarilyfromtheSocialSecurityearningsrecords,theW-2formswhenavailable,andtheHRSearningsdatawhenitexistsfortheindividual.Iftheindividualwasinatax-exemptemployment(anddidnothaveW-2orHRSearningsdata),weassumethattheincomewassufficienttoexceedthegiven“careercondition.”
SocialSecurityEarningsRecordLinkageintheHRS
ThefractionoffemaleHRSrespondentswhoagreedatsomepointtothelinkageoftheirHRSstudytotheirSocialSecurityearningsrecordishigh.Justaround11percentarenotlinkedfromthe1931to1942birthcohorts.Thefractionincreasesto15percentfor1943to1945andthento21percentfor1946to1948.Thehighrateofnon-linkageforthe1950scohortsisprobablybecausetheyhavehadfeweryearstoagreetohavetheirrecordslinkedsincerespondentsareaskedduringeachwave.ThefractionnotlinkedwillprobablyfallduringthenextwavesoftheHRSasmorerespondentsagreetothelinkage.
Individualswhodidnotagreetothelinkagedonotdifferbasedoneducationalattainmentandcurrentmaritalstatuswiththosewhodidagree.Themaindeterminantoflinkageisthenumberofyearstheindividualhasbeeninthedatasetand,therefore,howmanytimestheindividualhasbeenaskedpermissionforthelinkage.
ComparisonsoftheHRSandtheCPS
LaborForceParticipationRates
TheHRScloselytracksthelaborforceparticipationratesgivenbytheCPSforthesameagegroupsandbirthcohorts.Theonlymajordifferencesoccurforthose65yearsandolder.TheHRSlaborforcedataarealwaysgreaterthantheCPSdataineveryyearfrom1992to2010fortheseagegroupsbutarenotfortheyoungergroupings.Theprecisereasonisunclear.OnepossibilityisthattheCPSdoesabetterjobinterviewingindividualsingroupquarters.
MaritalStatusandEducation
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-46-
BoththeHRSmaritalstatusandeducationvariablestracktheCPSwellforindividuals51to56yearsold.Cohortsbornfrom1935to1952aregiveninAppendixTablesA2andA3.TheHRSsamplesarefairlysmallandaresubjecttoconsiderablesamplingerror.Itshouldbenotedthattheeducationdistributionsfor51to56-year-oldwomendifferfromthoseforyoungerwomeninthesamebirthcohortsduetoacommonphenomenonthatindividualsgaineducation,forrealorfictitiousreasons,astheyage.
TheHRScontainsapotentialcomplicationbecausesomepeopledidnotlistadegreeandtheirhighestdegreewasinferred.AccordingtotheRANDHRSCodebook(Chien2013,pp.132-33):“ThehighestdegreeisassignedbylookingatreportsfromTrackerandallwavesofdata.Thefirstnon-missingvalueisused.”Whentheactualdegreeismissing,itisimputedandabachelor’sdegreeisgiventothosewithRAEDYRS=16or17.Interestingly,theHRSandtheCPSdataforthesameagegroupsandbirthcohortsisremarkablysimilar.
ChildrenEverBorn
TheinformationonchildreneverbornintheHRSdiffersinvariouswaysfromthatintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.Butthemeannumberofchildrenforthesamecohortsineachofthetwosourcesisnotmuchdifferent.ItappearsthatthemaindifferenceisthatthefractionofwomenwhoreportnobirthsintheHRSislowerthanreportedintheCPS.Forexample,forwomenwithacollegedegreebornfrom1947to1951thefractionwithzerobirthsintheHRS(alloftherespondentsareolderthan44years)is19percent.ButintheCPSthefractionwithzerobirthsat40to44yearsoldisabout25percent.Forwomenwithlessthanacollegedegree,thefractionwithnobirthsintheHRSforthosebornfor1947to1951is10percentbutis13percentintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.
EventhoughHRSrespondentsreportalowerfractionwithnobirth,themeannumberofchildreneverborn,asgiveninAppendixFigureA2,issimilartothatgivenintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.TheHRSnumberisalmostalwaysslightlyhigher,especiallyforcohortsfromafter1945.
OnepossibilityisthatwomenintheHRSarealsoincludingadoptedandstepchildren.Thatpossibilityhasbeenexploredanddoesnotappeartobethesourceofthedifference.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-47-
AppendixFigureA1:ComparingLaborForceParticipationfortheHRSandtheCPS:Women50-54to70-74Years
Sources:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1963to2014;HRS.Notes:TheHRSisabiennialsurvey.SomeagegroupsarenotshownfortheHRSbecausethegroupisincompleteandtheparticipationratewouldbebiasedsinceitwouldomitsomeoftheolderagesinthegroup.
0.0
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0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74HRS 50-54 HRS 55-59 HRS 60-64 HRS 65-69 HRS 70-74
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-48-
AppendixFigureA2:ChildrenEverBornforWomen51to56YearsOldinHRSand40to44YearsOldinCPSinBirthCohorts1936to1951
Sources:CPSJuneFertilitySupplements,micro-data(1973to2014);HRS.
Notes:HRSpersonweightsareused;noweightsareusedfortheCPS.Childreneverbornistruncatedbelow10inbothsamples.Inbothdatasets,thevariableissupposedtogivethenumberofchildreneverborntotherespondentandnotthenumberoflivechildrenoradoptedorstepchildren
0
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1
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1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
CPS,40to44years HRS,51to56years
BirthYear
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-49-
AppendixTableA1:FractionofFemaleHRSRespondentsLinkedtoSocialSecurityEarningsRecordsbyBirthCohort
BirthYears FractionLinked1931-33 0.8861934-36 0.8881937-39 0.8681940-42 0.8931943-45 0.8521946-48 0.7901949-51 0.7141952-54 0.682
Sources:HRS,RestrictedAccessData.
Notes:Personweightsused.LinkageusesHRSto2012.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-50-
AppendixTableA2:ComparingMaritalStatusfortheHRSandCPS:Women51to56Years
FractionCurrentlyMarried FractionEverMarriedbutnotcurrentlymarried
FractionNeverMarried
YearofBirth
HRS-SS FullHRS
CPS HRS-SS FullHRS
CPS HRS-SS FullHRS
CPS
1931-32 . . 0.730 . . 0.230 . . 0.0401933-34 . . 0.731 . . 0.225 . . 0.0441935-36 0.737 0.730 0.716 0.236 0.246 0.237 0.026 0.024 0.0471937-38 0.741 0.730 0.712 0.230 0.240 0.244 0.029 0.029 0.0441939-40 0.739 0.734 0.704 0.214 0.222 0.244 0.047 0.043 0.0511941-42 0.641 0.647 0.684 0.330 0.322 0.262 0.030 0.030 0.0541943-44 0.552 0.537 0.678 0.378 0.387 0.273 0.070 0.075 0.0491945-46 0.716 0.731 0.683 0.229 0.221 0.259 0.054 0.047 0.0581947-48 0.647 0.643 0.669 0.302 0.305 0.269 0.052 0.052 0.0631949-50 0.628 0.604 0.666 0.314 0.328 0.259 0.058 0.067 0.0751951-52 0.676 0.684 0.661 0.266 0.266 0.261 0.058 0.049 0.078
Sources:HRS.RestrictedAccessDataforHRS-SScolumns.CPS.
Notes:TheHRS-SScolumnsrefertothesamplelinkedtotheSocialSecurityAdministrationearningsdata.ThenumberofobservationsfortheHRSsampleisabout500forthe1949-50and1951-52birthcohortsand1,000forthe1937-38and1939-40birthcohorts.Missingvalues(.)indicatelackofcoverageusingtheparticularHRScohorts.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-51-
AppendixTableA3:ComparingEducationfortheHRSandCPS:Women51to56Years
FractionCollegeEducation
andAbove FractionSomeCollegeFractionHighSchool
DiplomaFractionLessthanaHigh
SchoolDiplomaYearofBirth HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS
1931-32 . . 0.121 . . 0.146 . . 0.450 . . 0.2821933-34 . . 0.127 . . 0.161 . . 0.454 . . 0.2581935-36 0.150 0.145 0.143 0.183 0.191 0.174 0.453 0.435 0.432 0.214 0.229 0.2511937-38 0.129 0.125 0.157 0.172 0.176 0.181 0.445 0.454 0.443 0.254 0.245 0.2191939-40 0.176 0.171 0.172 0.225 0.224 0.206 0.376 0.379 0.431 0.222 0.226 0.1911941-42 0.186 0.181 0.190 0.275 0.269 0.231 0.345 0.349 0.405 0.194 0.200 0.1741943-44 0.254 0.251 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.245 0.369 0.378 0.395 0.163 0.155 0.1481945-46 0.246 0.236 0.240 0.276 0.273 0.245 0.327 0.338 0.379 0.150 0.153 0.1371947-48 0.197 0.227 0.265 0.334 0.304 0.272 0.360 0.371 0.358 0.109 0.098 0.1051949-50 0.305 0.298 0.277 0.263 0.280 0.276 0.325 0.317 0.346 0.108 0.105 0.1011951-52 0.295 0.288 0.296 0.275 0.282 0.288 0.339 0.333 0.315 0.091 0.097 0.102
Sources:HRS.RestrictedAccessdataforHRS-SScolumns.CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1963to2014
Notes:TheHRS-SScolumnsrefertothesamplelinkedtotheSocialSecurityAdministrationearningsdata.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-52-
AppendixTableA4:Full-timeParticipationforWomenatAges59to63,byEducation:HRS Full-timeEmploymentatAges59to63Years
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.0340 0.0423 -0.0364* 0.0465 -0.0375* 0.0463 (0.0192) (0.0524) (0.0183) (0.0516) (0.0177) (0.0481) 1937-39 0.000660 0.0151 -0.0179 0.0205 -0.0102 0.0111 (0.0196) (0.0524) (0.0190) (0.0521) (0.0184) (0.0487) 1940-42 -0.00476 0.0349 -0.0343 0.0120 -0.0313 0.00402 (0.0209) (0.0523) (0.0202) (0.0518) (0.0198) (0.0481) 1943-45 -0.00972 0.0168 -0.0448 -0.0238 -0.0364 -0.0265 (0.0242) (0.0532) (0.0235) (0.0552) (0.0232) (0.0523) 1946-48 0.00969 0.0360 -0.0329 -0.0128 -0.0246 -0.00276 (0.0250) (0.0501) (0.0240) (0.0499) (0.0233) (0.0476) 1949-51 0.00881 0.120* -0.0347 0.0860 -0.0231 0.0853 (0.0285) (0.0521) (0.0279) (0.0506) (0.0273) (0.0479)Highschoolgrad. 0.107*** 0.0659*** 0.0276 (0.0151) (0.0149) (0.0149) Somecollege 0.177*** 0.124*** 0.0677*** (0.0187) (0.0184) (0.0183) MA 0.0810* 0.0706* 0.0612 (0.0336) (0.0332) (0.0322)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.190** 0.146* 0.118 (0.0670) (0.0677) (0.0640)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.240*** 0.139* 0.225*** 0.127* (0.0247) (0.0584) (0.0240) (0.0610)NeverinLF35-44 -0.00226 -0.152* -0.00113 -0.156* (0.0211) (0.0660) (0.0206) (0.0639)Currentlymarried -0.110** -0.258*** (0.0397) (0.0703)Divorced 0.0322 0.0736 (0.0414) (0.0746)Widow -0.0118 -0.0473 (0.0406) (0.0784)SpouseinLF 0.0688*** 0.158*** (0.0149) (0.0357)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-53-
Constant 0.177*** 0.653*** 0.114** 0.593*** 0.0776 0.505*** (0.0326) (0.0849) (0.0373) (0.0931) (0.0477) (0.120) N 12789 2642 12789 2642 12789 2642R-squared 0.043 0.052 0.084 0.079 0.125 0.134Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforcefull-timeand0otherwise.Awomanisinthelaborforcefull-timeifshereportedbeingemployedfor35ormorehoursperweek.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatesdegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-54-
AppendixTableA5:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAges56to58,byEducation:HRS LaborForceParticipationatAges56to58Years
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1937-39 0.00933 0.0128 -0.0184 0.0170 -0.0141 0.0120 (0.0238) (0.0552) (0.0225) (0.0531) (0.0214) (0.0509) 1940-42 0.0558* -0.0112 0.0120 -0.0311 0.0257 -0.0248 (0.0245) (0.0519) (0.0227) (0.0491) (0.0221) (0.0454) 1943-45 0.0170 0.0504 -0.0419 0.00718 -0.0334 0.00633 (0.0296) (0.0529) (0.0281) (0.0516) (0.0272) (0.0505) 1946-48 0.00282 0.0269 -0.0607* -0.0217 -0.0348 -0.0139 (0.0283) (0.0529) (0.0267) (0.0507) (0.0259) (0.0483) 1949-51 0.0357 0.0763 -0.0296 0.0324 0.00586 0.0309 (0.0301) (0.0486) (0.0289) (0.0482) (0.0274) (0.0460) 1952-54 0.00537 0.110* -0.0599 0.0516 -0.0219 0.0484 (0.0326) (0.0510) (0.0316) (0.0500) (0.0286) (0.0498)Highschoolgrad. 0.212*** 0.144*** 0.0719*** (0.0223) (0.0220) (0.0216) Somecollege 0.266*** 0.188*** 0.0999*** (0.0247) (0.0249) (0.0239) MA 0.0227 0.0137 0.0189 (0.0310) (0.0305) (0.0287)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.109* 0.0751 0.0517 (0.0456) (0.0454) (0.0446)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.302*** 0.0818 0.280*** 0.0430 (0.0315) (0.0565) (0.0297) (0.0674)NeverinLF35-44 -0.0711* -0.258** -0.0721* -0.275*** (0.0321) (0.0802) (0.0303) (0.0820)Currentlymarried -0.104* -0.276*** (0.0525) (0.0696)Divorced 0.0796 0.0120 (0.0531) (0.0457)Widow 0.0313 -0.0132 (0.0540) (0.0592)SpouseinLF 0.168*** 0.200*** (0.0207) (0.0578)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-55-
Constant 0.341*** 0.662*** 0.302*** 0.672*** 0.149* 0.612*** (0.0449) (0.123) (0.0484) (0.124) (0.0663) (0.124) N 7354 1649 7354 1649 7354 1649R-squared 0.049 0.022 0.123 0.060 0.199 0.130Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1934-36birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage56.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatedegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbytheHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
