Wolf and Woolf 2006 paper discussion
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Transcript of Wolf and Woolf 2006 paper discussion
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Waves and Climate Change in the North-East Atlantic
by Judith Wolf and David K. Woolf
Presented by: Irma Caraballo Álvarez
October 4, 2012
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Introduction
Wave models
Results
Discussion
Outline
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Wave height increase Last 25 years Up to 14m in January 1993 Observed by
Buoys Ships Satellite altimetry
TOPEX/Poseidon
Introduction
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North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Icelandic Low
Azores High
+NAO
Stronger westerlies
Introduction
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Introduction
Figure 1. NAO from NOAA (http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/ao-nao2_pos_vs_neg.jpg).
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Possible reasons
Increase in winds
Increase in storminess
Storminess variations in decadal scales
Introduction
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Usefulness
Interpret data
Study impacts of climate change
Investigate physical explanations
Extrapolate the model
Wave Models
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Wave Models
Figure 2. Mean atmospheric conditions for January 1993. Coloured shading/contours is wind speed in m/s, arrows indicate direction of flow.
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Data ECMWF ERA-40 re-analysis model, January
1993 NCEP/NCAR re-analysis model
Validation TOPEX/Poseidon Buoys
Wave Models
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Variables
Strength of the westerlies
Frequency of storms
Intensity of storms
Strom tracks
Storm translation speeds
Wave Models
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Wave Models
Figure 3. Idealized storm with maximum wind speed 10m/s.
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Wave Models
Table 1. Features of the Storm Varied in the Experimentsa.
Feature Low Medium High
Frequency (month -1) 3 6 9
Intensity (m s-1) 10 15 20
Relative Strength 0.5 1 1.5
Direction ENE NE NNE
Speed (km h-1) 25 50 100 aValues in bold are the "standard" case.
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Results Storm frequency
Storm intensity
Relative strength of westerlies
Storm track
Storm translation speed
Figure 4. Effects of the variables on wave height. Red crosses = monthly maximum, blue squares = monthly mean.
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Is it possible to predict storms using this model?
Can the model be used in other regions?
Is NAO and storm frequency related to global warming?
Discussion
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The End