CONSULTING PARTNERS MEETING 2012 Workshop One

WMO/GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme

(CEE component)

Prof.dr Janusz Kindler – TF Leader, GWP PolandDr. Elena Mateescu – GWP RomaniaDr. Danka Thalmeinerova - GWPO

10 EU states 2 non-EU states

8 from Da-nube basin Region: Cz, Sk, Hu, Sl, Ro, Bg, Mo, Ua

4 from Baltic Sea Region : Pl, Lt, Lv, EE

Population of 152 million people, a quarter of all Europeans Total area, over 2.03 mill. km2 12 countries, 4 in the Baltic and 8 in the Danube regions

Baltic region: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and PolandDanube region: Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine

► In the past few decades it has become evident that several European countries are affected by droughts which are becoming more and more long lasting and severe. Regions in central and southern Europe which already suffer most from water stress are projected to be particularly vulnerable to reductions in water resources due to climate change.

Introduction to drought management problems

Observed changes in annual precipitation between 1961-2006

Source: EEA (2008)

► In Europe, a mean annual air temperature increase of 2...4,5°C is foreseen by the end of the century, function of the scenarios of green house gas emissions. (Source: IPCC SRES scenarios A2, EEA/2007)

A 10...30% decrease of the annual precipitation amounts is estimated in the southern part of Europe, and even higher values in the north are expected.(IPCC 4AR, Working Group I, 2007).

CLIMATE CHANGE - PERSPECTIVES

Inception Report

1. Summary (consolidation of various reports) on drought situation and the related risks

2. Mapping current policies regarding drought monitoring and management

3. Rationale for the IDMP: a cooperation of GWP and WMO

4. National and regional GWP CEE component proposed for GWP/WMO IDMP Programme

5. Conclusions and recommendations for the IDMP Initiative

SloveniaÞ RomaniaÞ BulgariaÞ HungaryÞ Ukraine Þ SlovakiaÞ PolandÞ Lithuania

The participating countries

Drought situation and related risks

• Recent severe and prolonged droughts have highlighted CEE’s (especially the South-eastern parts of the region) vulnerability to this natural hazard that can have severe consequences on the people living in drought-prone areas through their impact on water scarcity, land degradation, agricultural production and human and ecosystems degradation.

• Climate variability is high in the CEE region both temporally and spatially. In addition, climate change already amplifies the frequency and severity of droughts.

• The most vulnerable sector to drought-related losses is the agriculture, but in the severe drought situation shortages, water supply to population and industry may also be affected.

Agricultural drought in summer 2003

Drought situation and related risks – national overview -

Slovenia

Romania

Areas affected by drought

Bulgaria

Annual precipitation (mm)

Drought risk zones

Hungary

Ukraine

Crop yields in dry (2003) and non-dry (2008) years

Spatial distribution of water deficit in 1992 year

Poland

Mapping current policies regarding drought

monitoring and management

• In the CEE countries, the policies of drought monitoring and management are needed due to the regional/local character of drought phenomenon:

• for improvement and better coordination of national policies regarding the preparedness and drought impact mitigation;

• for the development of an integrated approach based on common methodologies and vulnerability assessments of various sectors to drought occurrence, spatial extension, intensity and duration.

• The drought monitoring is based especially on:• meteorological and hydrological observation systems;• agro-meteorological measurements and drought warning systems.

• All countries of the CEE region need to improve their both short-term and long-term responses across sectors to meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts.

The GWP CEE recognizes the important issue of serious eco-social problems caused by drought and wants to contribute to the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) of WMO/GWP.

At the Consultation Meeting on the proposed IDMP held at WMO in Geneva, November 2010 the participants unanimously agreed to the following principles:

1. Proactive approaches must have priority over reactive approaches2. Definition of drought risk: Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability.3. Drought hazard can be recognized by scientific analysis4. There is a necessity of horizontal and vertical integration over all sectors impacted by

drought.

Consultations continue: June 2012, Geneva

Rationale for the Integrated Drought Management Programme

National and regional GWP CEE componentproposed for IDMP Programme

Four categories of national and regional GWP CEE initiatives are proposed for IDMP:

1. Drought preparedness measures (investment and non-investment measures, like for example drought insurance systems);

2. Enhancement (and/or development) of drought monitoring and early warning systems;

3. Development of capacity building programs for water managers and farmers;

4. Development of case studies to document good practices in application of integrated drought management • including transboundary basins, • including land and water management according with UNCCD recommended practices to

avoid desertification

Conclusions

The outputs of IDMP initiative are:

1. Knowledge base on recorded practices in drought planning and management;

2. Guidance on tools and institutional arrangements to support increased risk responses;

3. Advocacy through regional and country dialogues;4. Improved early drought warning services, building upon

existing regional initiatives.

Going step by step: • Regional workshop:

– To consult with the key stakeholders main features of the IDM Programme (such as: DMCSEE, the European Drought Centre (EDC), national secretariats of UNCCD of all CEE countries , UNECE and its Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation)

– To seek an appropriate mechanism and cooperation with agriculture sector at national levels;

• Need to consider:– How to utilize a program potential to replicate this initiative in other signatory

UNECE countries (specifically those in Med, Central Asia and Caucasus, where GWP has also its partners).

• Integrated Drought Management Platform :– a web-based tool to share information– roadmap to implement regional approaches and action plans – mutual exchange of knowledge & methodologies, and downscaling products in

order to support national level drought policies and planning processes

From GWP CEE Workplan 2012……

…. In addition to Mapping study and Regional Workshop…..

GWP CEE will

Implementation of the regional study on “Increasing soil water holding capacity; an example of best practice in drought mitigation”. This study was proposed by CWP Slovakia and deals with measures to increase soil water holding capacity as key attribute of soil quality. The target group is agriculture sector and the estimated budget of the project is 15,000 EUR.

Thank you!janusz.kindler@is.pw.edu.plmateescu.elena@gmail.comdanka.thalmeinerova@gwp.org