WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMMEPROGRAMME

RECENT ACTIVITIESRECENT ACTIVITIES

Koji KuroiwaChief, Tropical Cyclone Programme Division

World Meteorological Organization

IBtrACS Workshop, Asheville, USA, 5 to 7 May 2009

Guidance of EC-LX for TCP

Key Points:

ER I – Better weather forecasts and warnings• To give greater emphasis to the use of ensemble

techniques and probabilistic forecasting in tropical cyclone warning operations in order to improve their utility.

• To transfer research and development results between the tropical cyclone regional bodies with special emphasis on application of intensity forecast guidance.

• To continue to support training events to allow forecasters of small NMHSs to achieve the skills and competencies required for effective operational capacity.

ER VI – Multi-hazard early warning and DPP• To develop and incorporate a storm surge watch scheme

in the tropical cyclone advisory arrangements and in the regional operating plans and manuals – Coastal Risk Management.

Regular Session of TCP Regional Bodies

• RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South Pacific and the South-East Indian Ocean

(12th session, 18-24 July 2008, Niue)• RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South-west

Indian Ocean(18th session, 6-10 October 2008, Malawi)

• ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(41st session, 19-24 January 2009, Thailand)

• WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones(36th Session, 2 - 6 March 2009, Oman)

• RA IV Hurricane Committee(31st session, 20-24 April 2009, Bahamas)

Training Course/Workshop

• RA I Regional Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Research - Saint-Denis, La Réunion, 26 - 30 May 2008

• The 5th TCP/JCOMM Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting- Melbourne, Australia, 1 - 5 December 2008

• International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change - (Muscat, Oman, 8 – 12 March 2009)

• RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warning - Miami, Florida, USA, 23 March – 3 April 2009

Attachment Training

• RSMC Tokyo - Rep. Korea, Thailand 23 Jul – 1 Aug. 2008

• IIT Delhi (storm surge) - Myanmar, Sri Lanka 10 – 21 Nov. 2008

• RSMC New Delhi - (Pakistan), Bangladesh, Maldives

9 – 20 Feb. 2009

Update of the “Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone

Forecasting” Works are in progress on the initiative of Dr Chip Guard of Guam

as Chief Editor

- to be considerably updated and changed to reflect today's needs and the emergence of new technology- to be published primarily as a Web version for occasional update with new findings and climatology- to take multi-hazard approach to TC forecasting with linkages to associated hazards (storm-surge, flush flood, etc.)

(Topics and authors for the new Guide)1. General Overview ---------------- Drs Charles Neumann/Chip Guard/Mark Lander 2. Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology--- Dr Charles Neumann3. Tropical Cyclone Motion ----------- Dr Todd Kimberlain, James Franklin4. Tropical Cyclone Structure --------- Dr Pat Harr (Looking for another author)5. Ocean and Coastal Effects --- ----- Dr Bruce Harper6. Seasonal Forecasting ------------- Dr Phil Klotzbach7. Hydrological Forecasting ----------- Mr Edwin Lai8. Operational Strategy ------------- Dr Andrew Burton9. Warning Strategies --------------- Mr Steve Ready10. Ready Reconer ------------------- Dr Chip Guard and others

(Satellite techniques -------------- Dr Chris Velden )

Tropical Cyclone Forecasters’ Website (TCFW) -support to operational forecasters -

Documentation•WMO Technical Reports and Publications•Operational Plans/Manual•Training materials (Training Courses/Workshops)•Research outcomes (Papers, proceedings, etc.) Operational Resources •Satellite Observations (GMS, R&D)•Other Observations •NWP Model Outputs •TC Warnings Tropical Cyclone Archive•Database (best track, etc)•Sites with Archives Links to Relevant Centers•Severe Weather Information Centre•RSMCs/TCWCs•Major centers (NWS, UK, BoM, JMA, ECMWF, etc)

TCP Website

TCFW Global Guide

Study on the Wind Averaging Guideline

• Fifth TC RSMC/TCWC Technical Coordination Meeting (Honolulu, December 2005) reviewed the study undertaken by the Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd (SEA) to arrive at suitable conversion factors between the WMO 10-minute standard average wind and 1-minute, 2 minute and 3-minute “sustained”.

• Currently, under a final revision by SEA according to the comments from experts of World Weather Watch Programme.

• To be endorsed by the Sixth TC RSMC/TCWC Technical Coordination Meeting (Brisbane, November 2009)

Enhanced Cooperation with Research Community

(transfer of R&D results to operation)

• Closer link between TCP and WWRP: establishment of a Research Focal Point in the member of TCP regional bodies for coordination with WWRP/TMR To act as a liaison between his/her met service and WWRP/TMR

on tropical cyclone research activities.

To coordinate with WWRP/TMR on a regular basis.

To propose to WMO actions related to tropical cyclone research and then follow-up on the progress of such actions. Actions could include, but not limited to, e-mail messages to individuals or correspondence to WMO, e-mail discussions, acquiring/requesting for TC research related information, etc.

• Proactive role of operational forecasters in the projects and workshops related to tropical cyclone research: TIGGE, IWTC-VII, IWTCLP, etc.

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

TIGGE is an ensemble of all the ensemble members of the major global numerical modelling centres designed to enhance international collaboration on ensemble prediction for severe weather - collaboration between operational centres and the research community including universities. A real-time forecast demonstration projects will start in 2009.

2nd International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Processes (IWTCLP-2) - Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 October 2009

Sudden changes of TC tracks, structures and intensity during approaching coast

Changes of TC structures and intensity after landfall, and extratropical transition processes. (effects of land processes and topography)

Rainfall distribution after landfall. (QPE/QPF, theories and methodologies/techniques)

Social impacts, wind, storm surges and flooding after TC landfall

7th WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC VII) - La Reunion, late 2010 (tentative)

Tropical cyclone structure and structural change Tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition Tropical cyclone motion Climate variability and seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone

activity/intensity Disaster mitigation, warning systems and societal impacts

Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS)

The WMO Executive Council (June 2008): Requested the Secretary-General, in consultation with

UNESCO/IOC to facilitate development of storm surge watch schemes for regions subject to tropical cyclones;

Urged regional associations concerned to incorporate a storm surge watch scheme in the tropical cyclone advisory arrangements and in the TCP Regional Operating Plans and/or Manuals;

Decisions by the TCP Regional Bodies for SSWS

Planned Activities for 2009 and beyond

1. Attachment Training (RSMCs Tokyo/New Delhi/Nadi/La Reunion/IIT)

2. Typhoon Committee Research Forum (May, RoK)3. Southern Hemisphere TC Training Course (Sep.,

Australia)4. 2nd Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes

(Oct., China)5. RSMC/TCWC Technical Coordination Meeting (Nov.,

Australia) 6. Storm Surge Workshop for Hurricane Committee (2009)7. Storm Surge Workshop for Typhoon Committee (2010,

Macao)8. RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting (2010, Miami)9. RA I TC Training Course (2010, La Reunion)10. IWTC – VII (2010, La Reunion)

Thank you!Thank you!