World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeDisaster Risk Reduction Programme

ByBy

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeChief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

MGolnaraghi@wmo.intMGolnaraghi@wmo.int

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

Economic losses

Loss of lifeNumber ofevents

Volcano1,6%

Tsunami0,4%

Epidemic, insects13%

Wild Fires 3%

Windstorm 27%

Earthquake8%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

4%

Flood 33%

Slides 5%

Volcano1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects10%

Windstorm 15%

Earthquake16%

Drought30%

Extreme Temp.

5% Flood 10%

Tsunami1%

Wild Fires 2%

Windstorm 43%

Earthquake22%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

2%Flood 25%

Conclusions from 4th International Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report: Impacts,

Adaptation and Vulnerability

Phenomenon Likelihood Major projected impacts

Increased frequency of heat waves

Very likely Increased risk of heat-related mortality

Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events

Very likely Increased loss of life and property due to flooding, and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases

Area affected by drought increases

Likely Increased risk of food and water shortage

Intense tropical cyclone activity increases

Likely Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and food-borne diseases; Disruption by flood and high winds; Potential for population migrations, loss of property

Increased incidence of extreme high sea level

Likely Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure

Disaster Risk Reduction Strategic Foundation

WMO Strategic Plan

2008-2011

Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015

WMO Strategic Goals WMO Strategic Goals

in Disaster Risk Reductionin Disaster Risk Reduction

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Strategic Goals

1. Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment

2. Strengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systems

3. Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements

4. Strengthening WMO/National Meteorological and Hydrological Services cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizations

5. Public outreach campaigns

Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners’ resources/expertise.

WMO Action Plan in Context of Disaster Risk Management Framework

Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk quantification

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather Risk Management

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation

12 3

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling ….

– Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata

– Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies

– Forward looking hazard trend analysis• Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts• Probabilitic climate models

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)

COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES

feedback

feedback

Community Preparedness

warnings

National to local governments

supported by DRR plans, legislation

and coordination mechanisms

warnings

feedback

What is an Effective EarlyWarning System?

warnings

preventiveactions

1

2

3

4

5

5

33

5

Examples of Effective Early Warning SystemsANALYSIS AND

NUMERICAL MODELS

DIFUSSION OF WARNINGS

RESPONSE ACTIONS

TV

RADIO

PHONE - FAX

INTERNET

GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE,

RESIDENTS

WarningWarning

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

France Vigilance System

Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Shanghai City: Multi-Hazard Early Warning

and Emergency Response Programme

Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

• Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis

• Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement

• Forecasts for management of risk portfolio

• Technical support and service delivery

Cooperation projects with partner agencies

• Partnership pilot projects focusing on:– National Meteorological and Hydrological Services modernization, technical

capacity development and regional cooperation, early warning systems, partnership and delivery of services to disaster risk management users (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

• South eastern Europe (8 countries) (Funded by EC)• Other regions: Asia (being initiated)

• End-to-end Early Warning System Partnership Project proposals being considered for funding

– Central America (3 countries) engaging RA IV and Hurricane Committee – Partners: (IFRC, World Bank, UNDP, NOAA) also multi-agency at national levels

• “Climate risk management and sustainable development” in Africa WMO / WorldBank Project (funded by World Bank Global facility for DRR) (10 countries in Africa)

– Need to expand this initiative to other regions

Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems Partnership Pilot Projects

2007 20092008 2010 2011

RA I

RA II

RA III

RA IV

RA V

RA VI

SWFDP/ South and Southeast / Flash Flood Guidance End-to-end MHEWS

Shanghai Multi Hazard-EWS

DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO

DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO

DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

Multi Hazard – EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank,

UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC)

For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Thank You