With funding from the Rockefeller Foundation and technical and logistical support from Pact.

The Theory of Change Approach

to Program Design, Monitoring, & Evaluation

Colleen McGinn, PhD

Social Research Consultant- Impact Evaluation Workshop -

Handicap International

December 2013

http://www.seachangecop.org

http://www.seachangecop.org/

Introduction to Theory of Change (ToC)


• Presentation outline• What is ToC?• History of ToC• What kind of programs does

ToC fit?• Similarities and differences

with logic models• Steps in a ToC process• Pitfalls and disadvantages –

and how to avoid them• Case study• Recommended resources

Theory of Change has been described as “a roadmap, a blueprint, an engine of change, a theory of action and more” (Stein and Valters 2012: 5).- ToC outlines the building blocks

and the relationships between them that would lead to the accomplishment of a long-term goal.

- A practical but flexible approach to the design, monitoring, and evaluation (DME) of programs that address complex, multi-faceted, and long-term problems.



What is Theory of Change?“Although there are endless variations in terms of style and content, the basic components [of a Theory of Change] include a big picture analysis of how change happens in relation to specific thematic area; an articulation of an organization or program pathway in relation to this; and an impact assessment framework which is designed to test both the pathway and the assumptions made about how change happens.”

– O’Flynn 2012: 2



History of ToC• Origins lie in two streams of research and

praxis– Social justice advocacy and mobilization– Evaluation research (e.g., Carol Weiss)

• Not specific to international development• Intended as a practical, flexible tool that

bridges the ‘bigger picture’ specific near-term steps that can be addressed by a program or project.



When to use ToC

• ToC approaches are especially well-suited for endeavors that are:– Complex– Multi-faceted– Long-term– Large-scale– Fluid or uncertain conditions– Identifying lessons learned

and assessing impact– Evaluating why and how a

program contributes to meaningful social change

• ToC is a good fit for:– Climate change adaptation– Gender-based violence– Conflict transformation– Access to education – Behavior change– Empowerment of

marginalized groups– Social justice / social change– Any complex social issue



Logic Models vs. ToC

Logic models (“logframes”)

• Logframes align the parts of a program into a hierarchy of clearly-specified:– Goals– Outcomes / objectives– Outputs / results– Inputs / activities– (Indicators)– (Assumptions)

• Presented as a tableDillon n.d.



Logic Models vs. ToCTheory of Change• Goal

• A ‘causal pathway’ of steps to achieve the goal

• Clear identification of preconditions, thresholds, and underlying assumptions for each step

• Presented as a diagram Anderson 2004



Logic Models vs. ToC

• Logframes and ToC can be used together.– ToC maps out a broad vision and strategy towards

change.– Not all of the steps will be directly addressed by

your team.• Detailed program designs would be prepared only for

selected outcomes. Either a logframe or another more detailed ToC can be prepared for these selected programs.



Steps in a ToC

• Task 1: Identify the goal (sometimes called a ‘long-term outcome’ or ‘goal’). – Goal can be broad and ambitious, but it should

also be specific enough to serve as a springboard for planning• Example goal: “Vibrant, healthy communities where

preventable causes of disability are minimized and disabled children and adults can live in dignity and realize their full potential.”



Steps in a ToC• Task 2: Develop a pathway of

change. – What are the preconditions to

achieve each step/outcome?– Backwards mapping the answers

to this question– Every precondition becomes an

outcome for a nearer point

• Example outcomes for our goal:– Visual disability is prevented by

adequate intake of Vitamin A– Adults with physical mobility

disabilities earn income sufficient to keep them out of poverty.

– Many more!- Anderson 2004



Steps in a ToC

• Task 3: Operationalize outcomes.– Select indicators and

thresholds for each outcome.

– Thresholds are different from performance targets. • Thresholds are a measure

of whether or not the outcome has been met. It may be more than what the program can achieve in the short run.

• For our example outcome “Adults with physical mobility disabilities earn income sufficient to keep them out of poverty.”– Indicator: Monthly income– Threshold: 100% of adults

under 60 in the village with restricted physical mobility earn more than the official poverty line.



Steps in a ToC

• Task 4: Define interventions. – Identify which

steps/outcomes your agency will actually pursue.

– Design programs to address these selected steps/outcomes.

– For other steps/outcomes, consider how to support others who might pursue them.

• For our example outcome “Adults with physical mobility disabilities earn income sufficient to keep them out of extreme poverty.”– HI will support a social

enterprise and vocational training for adults with physical mobility restrictions.

• For our example outcome “Visual disability is prevented by adequate intake of Vitamin A”• HI will not implement

program for whatever reason (maybe another agency is implementing a good MCH and nutrition program already).



Steps in a ToC

• Task 5: Articulate assumptions. – Define what are the

necessary and sufficient conditions to achieve various steps along the pathway.

– Helps frame impact evaluations.

• For our example HI social enterprise….– Assumptions might include

that:• Target beneficiaries want to

earn income (rather than be supported by families).

• Target beneficiaries have basic literacy and numeracy skills sufficient to apply and manage home-based work without supervision.

• There is market demand for the social enterprise’s products.



Steps in a ToC

• Task 6: Periodically evaluate and update the ToC.– ToCs lend themselves to

more analytical evaluations, including assessing impact.

– Strategy should be revised and updated regularly.

• In our example, we assumed that “Target beneficiaries have basic literacy and numeracy skills sufficient to apply and manage home-based work without supervision.”– What if they don’t?– If this assumption is not met,

it would explain why endeavour is not working.

– This assumption could instead be made an outcome and directly addressed in a revised program strategy.



Advantages and benefits of ToC

• Stronger focus on contextual analysis.• ToC processes are inherently iterative and

flexible. Periodic reflection exercises allow stakeholders to respond to changes in the social, political, or natural environment.

• Build a shared vision and stronger relationships with partners and stakeholders.




• ToC processes emphasize articulating assumptions that underlie a program and what is needed to advance along a causal pathway. – Clarifies the logic of an intervention– Helps evaluators capture why and how an

intervention is – or is not – effecting change.




• Highlight contributions towards long-term change and linkages between program component

• A higher level of analysis which facilitates monitoring and evaluating diverse projects within a unifying strategic frameworks, as well as with external actors.




• More emphasis on how and why questions – Enables evaluators to assess the impact of a

program towards a long-term or large-scale aim.– Well-suited to identify lessons learned, best

practice, and new knowledge.



Pitfalls and Disadvantages• ToC approaches take time to develop.• ToC processes can feel confusing or abstract to

some.• ToC flowcharts can be ‘messy’ and difficult to

follow.• ToC can run the risk of becoming a ‘glorified

logframe.’ • ToC is not a ‘magic bullet.’


Su


‘Real World’ Example: ESPA

Summary Chart



‘Real World’ Example: ESPA



Recommended Tools• Free open-access Theory of Change software can be

downloaded from The Center for Theory of Change. http://www.theoryofchange.org/

• An interactive Theory of Change template can be downloaded from Keystone (together with a workbook). http://www.keystoneaccountability.org/

• An excellent Theory of Change facilitator’s guide (Anderson 2005) can be downloaded from The Aspen Institute. http://www.aspeninstitute.org/

• For further reading…– Vogel, Isobel. (2012). Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in

international development.– James, Cathy. (2011). Theory of Change review.


SEA Change is a Community of Practice that develops a culture of

high quality and rigorous M&E frameworks, approaches and

methodologies for climate change interventions and practices in

Southeast Asia, and beyond.



With funding from the Rockefeller Foundation and technical and logistical support from Pact.

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Transcript of With funding from the Rockefeller Foundation and technical and logistical support from Pact.