Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures
Transcript of Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures
![Page 1: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Wiser decision-making for our seas.
Diana Pound BSc MSc CEnv
MIEEM (IUCN Commissioner)
Dialogue Matters LtdSpecialists in designing and facilitating co-operative
decision making for the natural environment
![Page 2: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Contents
• Why I care about decision making
• How are decisions really made?
• How do we factor this into our
decision-making
![Page 3: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Why I care about how decision
making works….
• Regional seas: OSPAR and Jeddah Convention, UKOTs Caribbean reefs, advice on regional sea
management
• Marine Protected Areas : UK, Isle of Man, Jersey
• Marine industry: wind farm, EU Ocean Energy
• Integrated management/Ecosystem Approach: UK, Carribean
• Marine research: fisheries, conservation, marine spatial planning, coastal/climate adaptation,
young people and the coast
![Page 4: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Rational Choice
Science + rational analysis = decision
– Invest in more marine data and
information
– Gather stakeholder views as data
– Ensure rational experts decide
![Page 5: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Low x High
Level of uncertainty
High
y
Decision
Stakes
Applied “Normal” Science( traditional notions of science)
Expert Professional Judgment
Use of judgment and good practice
Post Normal Science
(uncertain facts, disputed values, high
stakes, decisions urgent, complexity)
Solution
Ratio of investment in
data and decision
making
Stakeholder and Public
Dialogue £££:£££
Dialogue between specialists £££:££
Statistics £££:£
Investing in better decision
making
![Page 6: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Marine management and research
?
Interdependencies
Complexity
Uncertainty
Controversy
Multiple perspectives
Kevin Collins SLIM project, Open University, 2004
![Page 7: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Want better marine decisions? …
Invest in better decision-making!
We understand, invest in and apply marine science.
We need to understand, invest in and apply decision science!
![Page 8: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
HOW DO WE DECIDE?
![Page 9: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
What is your order of preference ?
![Page 10: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
What is your order of preference ?
Flavour
Shape
Colour
![Page 11: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Which line is longer?
A
B
What would you do if everyone who was asked
before you, said the wrong answer?
![Page 12: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
What colour is this bit of paper?
![Page 13: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
What is the biggest risk to humans
we need to invest in managing?
![Page 14: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
We tend to overestimate what we
know and are familiar with
4 – 6 deaths world wide a year
500 deaths world wide a year
![Page 15: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
DECISION SHORT CUTS
![Page 16: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Heuristics or Mental glitches?
• Mental short cut or rules of
thumb to ease the load of
making a decision
– Individual
– Social
![Page 17: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Individual short cuts
• Anchoring – we rely most on
what we first hear
• Availability/ease: if we can
easily bring something to mind
we think it is more common
• Familiarity we are
disproportionally influenced by
what we have experienced
before
• Confirmation bias we favour
information that fits our existing
way of seeing things
![Page 18: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Individual short cuts
• Sunk costs we invest more because
when we have already invested a lot
- even if evidence shows this won’t
pay off
• Stereo/proto typing: we make
assumptions made on mental images
and patterns
• Fuctional fixedness: we see things as
only working in a particular way
• Optimism bias: we think we are less likely to suffer misfortune and more
likely to attain success than average
![Page 19: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Individual short cuts
• Mood: when we are in a good
mood we see higher benefits
and lower risks
• Decision Fatigue: avoid court
in the afternoon!
![Page 20: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Social short cuts
• Social norming –go with the
crowd
• Copy someone you trust
• Follow the leader
• React to the power holder
• False consensus: we tend to
overestimate how much
people agree with us
![Page 21: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIERS TO GRAPPLING
WITH ENVIRONMENT CHALLENGES
![Page 22: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Psychological Barriers –individual
Participation design solution
Natural bias to short- termism and localism
Focus on long term vision
What can be done short term
Place (or topic)they connect with
Desire for autonomy and control Real influence and people can develop own
conclusions through social learning
Pursuit of happiness (and avoidance of negative emotions)
Build and strengthen what is already working
well
Turns a threat into a challenge - people have
the resources to copeNeed to maintain self esteem
![Page 23: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Psychological Barriers – Group
Participation design solution
Reputational or ‘face’ needsAvoid ‘them and us’ and win/lose
Develop shared view
Perceived community behaviour Draw in opinion leaders/formers
Create a norm of engagement
Group polarization Consensus building
Social loafing They have things to contribute
Justice equity and fairness All can express their view
Good practice & equitable process design
![Page 24: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Negotiation Behaviour
Positional/adversarial Principled/co-operative
Withhold information Share information
Make threats Ask questions
Argue from positions Explore interest and needs
Attack the others’ knowledge or them
Explore knowledge and perspectives
Defend position Seek solutions
Work on each other Work on the challenge
Actively seek win/lose Actively seek win/win
![Page 25: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
The problem with problem solving
• Demotivates people
• Negative focus
• Damaged relationships
![Page 26: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Problem solving/
deficit basedAsset based thinking
Frustration Motivated
Efforts not valued Efforts valued
Environment is complex and
difficult = a problem
Looking after the environment
has many benefits and is do-
able
Feeling overwhelmed Believe in own capacity and
agency to make a difference
Risk averse Fosters innovation
Disowning – it’s not our
problem
Willing to get involved and
make a difference
No momentum or resistance Momentum for delivery
26
Constructive Dialogue
![Page 27: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
WISER DECISION MAKING
![Page 28: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Investing in wise decisions
We know how to do great science and invest in it
We must learn how to do great decision making
and invest in that too!
Good Science + Great decision processes = Better managed seas
![Page 29: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Investing in wise decisions
• Decide with, not for
• All forms of knowledge
• Design processes
• Facilitate to encourage open minded
thinking, principled negotiation, and
constructive dialogue
• Factor in times to think laterally and
creatively
![Page 30: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Investing in wise decisions
• Deliberate over options
• Factor in knock-on and long term
effects
• Ensure decision points use
techniques that mitigate mental
glitches and social norming -
![Page 31: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
All we have to do is get the numbers right
All we have to do is tell them the numbers
All we have to do is explain what we mean by the numbers
All we have to do is show them they’ve accepted similar numbers in the past
All we have to do is show them it’s a good deal for them
All we have to do is treat them nicely
All we have to do is make them partners
Fischhoff (2002)
All we have to do is decide well together!
Pound (today!)
![Page 32: Wiser decision-making for our seas. - Coastal Futures](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051307/6279eb3d28b8e236367a4cea/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32Wiser Decision-making for our seas | Dialogue Matters | www.dialoguematters.co.uk I [email protected]
Want better marine decisions? …
Invest in better decision-making!
We understand, invest in and apply marine science.
We need to understand, invest in and apply decision science!