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![Page 1: Winter Outlook (2012-2013) Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS Oregon Chapter Meeting 17 November 2012 Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/5697bff61a28abf838cbdf66/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Winter Outlook (2012-2013)Winter Outlook (2012-2013)
Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS Oregon Chapter Meeting
17 November 2012
Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS Oregon Chapter Meeting
17 November 2012
Clinton RockeyNOAA/National Weather Service
![Page 2: Winter Outlook (2012-2013) Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS Oregon Chapter Meeting 17 November 2012 Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/5697bff61a28abf838cbdf66/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
El Niño vs. La Niña
• La Niña • Below-normal sea
surface temperatures in equatorial Pacific Ocean
• El Niño • Above-normal sea surface
temperatures in equatorial Pacific Ocean
Nov 1997
Feb 1999
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El Niño vs. La Niña
La Niña
El Niño
![Page 4: Winter Outlook (2012-2013) Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS Oregon Chapter Meeting 17 November 2012 Oregon Museum of Science and Industry AMS.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/5697bff61a28abf838cbdf66/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
La Niña vs El Niño
Precipitation
La Niña
Temperature
La Niña
El Niño
Temperature
El Niño
Precipitation
Based on 1950-2010 NOAA data
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Current ENSO StatusCurrent ENSO Status
Tropical conditions may resemble a weak El Niño at times, but ENSO-neutral conditions will persist into 2013.
As of 8 November Warm Neutral
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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
• SST have decreased since July
• But rose slightly in October
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Climate Model PredictionsClimate Model PredictionsENSO-neutral conditions favored through Spring 2013.
El Niño
La Niña
ENSO-neutral
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Temperature Precipitation
NOAA’s U. S. Seasonal OutlooksDecember 2012 – February 2013
Favors Warmer
Favors Drier
Favors Wetter
Favors Cooler
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Monthly Precipitation at PDXMonthly Precipitation at PDX
But Likely to FinishWetter than Average
Near Average Rainfall in most of Winter
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ENSO Rain Signal ENSO Rain Signal
Portland Salem Eugene Astoria
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Winter* Rainfall : Departure from Average
El Niño La Niña Neutral Warm Neutral
33.12 45.6028.3224.76
* 15 October through 15 March
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-4.0 0.0 4.0-3
0
3
ENSO/ONI vs PDOJan 1950 - Sep 2012
All Months/Years PQR Flood Events
PDO
EN
SO
/ON
IENSO and Flood EventsENSO and Flood Events
-4.0 0.0 4.0-3
0
3
ENSO/ONI vs PDOJan 1950 - Sep 2012
All Months/YearsPQR Major Flood Events (>=20 floods)
PDO
EN
SO
/ON
I
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Portland Snow DataIn ‘Warm Neutral’ Years
Portland Snow DataIn ‘Warm Neutral’ Years
Average Portland Winter Snowfall ~5.0 inches
1993-94 (2.6”)
1990-91 (1.9”)1979-80 (12.4”)
2003-04 (12.3”)
1958-59 (2.9”)1960-61 (0”)
1989-90 (8.3”)
1992-93 (14.1”)
1952-53 (0.6”)
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Portland Salem Eugene Astoria0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Winter Season Snowfall
AverageEl NiñoLa NiñaNeutralWarm Neutral
ENSO Lowlands Snow SignalENSO Lowlands Snow Signal
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Portland Snowfall HistoryPortland Snowfall History
Top 10 snowiest winters:
34.0” 1968-69 El Niño24.2” 2008-09 ENSO Neutral22.4” 1955-56 La Niña20.3” 1959-60 ENSO Neutral17.4” 1992-93 ENSO Neutral16.3” 1979-80 ENSO Neutral14.7” 1970-71 La Niña13.4” 1964-65 ENSO Neutral12.3” 2003-04 ENSO Neutral12.0” 1994-95 El Niño10.5” 1953-54 ENSO Neutral
60% were ENSO Neutral20% were La Niña 20% were El Niño
1950-2011 data
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PDX Snowfall History 1951 to 2010PDX Snowfall History 1951 to 2010
18 snow-shutout winters:(Trace or 0 snowfall)
8 were El Niño winters7 were ENSO Neutral winters3 were La Niña winter
So…in recent years, for low elevations, ENSO Neutral: - Wide Range of possibilities.
* Can have a moderately snowy winter (2003-04)* Can be very mild (1992-93 and 2001-02)
44% were El Niño (25% total of all winters)39% were ENSO Neutral (48% total of all winters)
17% were La Niña (27% total of all winters)
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ENSO and Portland Snow EventsENSO and Portland Snow Events
-4.0 0.0 4.0-3
0
3
ENSO/ONI vs PDO1950 - 1995
All Winter Months (Oct-Mar) PDX Monthly Snowfall >= 2.0"
PDO
EN
SO
/ON
I
-4.0 0.0 4.0-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
ENSO/ONI vs PDO1950 - 1995
All Winter Months (Oct-Mar) PDX Monthly Snowfall >=10.0"
PDO
EN
SO
/ON
I
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So, will there be a lot of rain or snow this
Winter?
Cartoon used with permission by T. McCracken
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Winter 2012-13 OutlookWinter 2012-13 Outlook
TemperaturesNear average.
PrecipitationSlightly drier than AverageFebruary may trend to slightly wetter than average.
Lowland Snow PotentialLow to Moderate in January and February.More likely would be a Mixed Precipitation Event
(Sleet, Snow and/or Freezing Rain)
But…. Weather in ENSO Neutral years is Highly Variable.
Will we be shut out, or shut in due to snow?
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POC: Clinton Rockey, NWS [email protected]
503.326.2340 x242
or
POC: Tyree Wilde, NWS [email protected]
503.326.2340 x223
Questions?