Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?
description
Transcript of Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?
![Page 1: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Wine 2023:Surplus? Or Shortage?
Dave ChambersWine Marketing Enterprises, Inc.
November 8, 2013
![Page 2: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
“And In This Corner”“Shortage!” (Oct 22nd
report)• Australian Analysts Tom
Kierath and Crystal Wang
• Global shortage of 300 million cases
![Page 3: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“And In This Corner”“Hogwash!”
• “Industry’s in fine shape” Jon Bonne, SF Chronicle
• “Just offsetting over-supply” Rob McMillin, SVB
• “Supply to vary by price point” Intl Business Times
![Page 4: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Evidence Of Shortage• Growing demand
– China– Gen X, Millennials
• Shrinking vineyards• Global inventory depletion
![Page 5: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Growing Demand
![Page 6: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Growing Demand - China
![Page 7: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Growing Demand – By Age
![Page 8: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Shrinking Supply
![Page 9: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Global Inventory Depletion
![Page 10: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Round 1 – Shortage!
![Page 11: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Not So Fast!
![Page 12: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Round 2 – The Rebuttal• “The Morgan Stanley’s report is just
wrong” (Rob McMillan, Silicon Valley Bank)
• “Global production at its highest in 7 years” (Intl. Org of Vine & Wine, (OIC) France)
• “Bulk wine prices are stable… there is no shortage” (Rabo Bank, New York)
10-31 SFGate.comWSJ Market Watch
![Page 13: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Rebuttal – Alternate Demand
![Page 14: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Rebuttal – Surplus Product
CBC News July, 2013
![Page 15: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Winery?Treasury Wine Estates
• The total write-off was $145 million, USD (WSJ, July 15, 2013)
• “We overestimated U.S. Demand”• Stockholder lawsuit pending• Oct 31st - BofA/Merrill Lynch urges
Treasury to Divest of Beringer ASAP (Wine Industry Insight)
![Page 16: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Rebuttal – Interest ConflictThe spinning of looming shortages to promote wine stocks… could work again for those unfamiliar with the public wine stock frenzy/crash/burn of the 1990s. That debacle was driven by a similar shortage myth, [creating] a huge wine tsunami in 2001.
Wine Industry Insight 10-31-13
![Page 17: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict• What bank lists
Treasury Wine Estates as their top “consumer pick”?
![Page 18: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict• Morgan Stanley, of
course.• Analysts were not
made available for comment
![Page 19: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/568167e5550346895ddd5149/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Wine Shortage Knockout?