Wind integration in the NEM and ISPRichard Lowe, Executive Manager Business Growth

TransGrid

CEC Wind Industry Forum 2019

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe2

TransGrid’s network sits at the centre of the NEM

NSW is the largest region in the National Electricity Market, connecting QLD and VIC

32% of Australia’s population

32% of energy in the NEM

Sydney Basin Region

• Peak demand of 8,151 MW

• Approx. 55% energy in the

state

• Annual consumption of

38,018 GWh

• Steady demand growth

since 2014

Once in a generation change

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe3

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe

The NEM is witnessing a withdrawal of traditional thermal generation

4

Supply within the NEM is changing

NEM coal generator operating lives to 2050

Source: Australian Energy Council, 2016. Based upon announced retirement date

or 50th year from full operation

Demand rising since 2014

Source: TransGrid

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe5

50

55

60

65

70

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Fe

b-1

7

Jul-13

Aug-1

3

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

6

Oct-

13

Sep-1

3

Sep-1

8

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

3

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

7

Oct-

18

Jan-1

6

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

4F

eb-1

4M

ar-

14

Jan-1

8

Dec-1

4

Apr-

14

May-1

4

Mar-

18

May-1

6

Jun-1

4

May-1

7

Jul-14

Aug-1

4

Aug-1

8

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5F

eb-1

5M

ar-

15

Apr-

15

Dec-1

6

May-1

5

Aug-1

6

Jul-15

Jun-1

8

Aug-1

5S

ep-1

5O

ct-

15

Jun-1

6

Mar-

16

Nov-1

5D

ec-1

5

May-1

8

Oct-

17

Apr-

16

Jul-16

Long term monthly energy usage (TWh - LHS); Rolling 12 months (RHS)

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

Jul-17

Apr-

17

Apr-

18

Jun-1

7

Oct-

16

Nov-1

7D

ec-1

7

Feb-1

8

Jul-18

Nov-1

8D

ec-1

8Jan-1

9

Aug-1

7

12m rolling energy usage (TWh - cumulative)

Monthly energy usage (TWh)

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe6

Increasingly diverse generation mix is forecast

Source: AEMO Integrated System Plan 2018, Neutral Scenario with storage

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

NS

W e

nerg

y genera

ted (

GW

h)

NSW Rooftop PV

NSW Distributed storage generation

NSW Utility storage generation

NSW Utility Solar

NSW Wind

NSW Peaking gas + liquids

NSW CCGT

NSW Hydro

NSW Black coal

NSW energy generation forecast

Implications for transmission

CEC Wind Industry Forum –

Richard Lowe7

8

Transmission will be the platform for renewables

There is an

unprecedented level of

generation connection

enquiries across NSW –

over 40,000MW

Source: TransGrid Transmission Annual Planning Report, 2018

Connection Enquiries and network capacity

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe

• New generation requires increased network capacity

• Increasingly intermittent generation coupled with an increase in

demand side participation

• A systematic approach is needed to manage the current transition

• Transmission can unlock geographic diversity for generation and

lower prices for consumers

9

Transmission solutions

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe

• Released November 2018

• Builds on AEMO’s

Integrated System Plan

• Calls out development of

renewable energy zones

within NSW

• Complementary zones with

significant wind potential in

New England

NSW Transmission Infrastructure Strategy

Source: NSW Transmission Infrastructure Strategy

10

CEC Wind Industry Forum – Richard Lowe11

The Integrated System Plan

Project Energy

Connect

Bannaby Link

QNI upgrade

The Integrated System Plan sets out a long-term strategy for the efficient

development of the NEM transmission network.

Minor VNI upgrade

Source: TransGrid Transmission Annual Planning Report, 2017

ISP projects within NSW Timing (indicative)

QNI upgrade 2022

Minor VNI upgrade 2022

Project EnergyConnect 2023

Bannaby Link End 2024

Thank you.Richard Lowe, Executive Manager Business Growth

TransGrid