Wind in our Sails - The coming of Europe's offshore wind energy industry
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Wind in our Sails The coming of Europe’s offshore wind energy industry
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‘Wind in our Sails’ is about offshore wind energy and provides a detailed analysis of the sector’s rapidly developing supply chain. A growing industry with huge potential and massive developer interest, offshore is nonetheless facing a possible financing gap and an inadequate power grid. Questions answered in the report include; How much capacity is currently installed? Will there be enough turbines, foundations, cables, ships and ports. How much is under construction, consented and in government concession zones? How will the sector develop in the next few years? (November 2011)
Transcript of Wind in our Sails - The coming of Europe's offshore wind energy industry
Wind in our SailsThe coming of Europe’s offshore wind energy industry
The coming of Europe’s offshore wind energy industry
Cumulative offshore wind capacity EU and non EU (1991 - 2010)
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
100
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500(MW)
Cumulative non EU
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 102
Cumulative EU
5 5 5 7 12 29 9 2 2 36 86 256 515 605 695 787 1,106
1,479
2,063
2,946
Source: EWEA
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
100
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Annual offshore wind capacity EU and non EU (1991 - 2010)
Annualnon EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 102
Annual EU
5 0 0 2 5 17 0 3 0 4 51 170 259 90 90 3 318 374 584 883
(MW)
Source: EWEA
United Kingdom 52%
(458 MW)
Denmark 23%(207 MW)
Belgium 19%(165 MW)
Germany 6%(50 MW)
Finland 0%(2.3 MW)
Share of new installed capacityin Europe in 2010
Source: EWEA
Total offshore wind market outlook
Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011• Total installed capacity
of 4,000 MW• Meeting 0.4% of total
EU electricity demand• Annual installations of
1,000 MW• Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO2
annually• Total electricity
production of 14.4 TWh
• Annual investments in wind turbines of €2.8 billion.
Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011
• Total installed capacity of 4,000 MW•Meeting 0.4% of total EU electricity demand• Annual installations of 1,000 MW• Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO2 annually• Total electricity production of 14.4 TWh• Annual investments in wind turbines of €2.8 billion.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Annual offshore wind capacity EU and non EU (1991 - 2010)
(MW)
EWEA
NREAP’s
4 5 8 11 14 17 22 27 33 40
4 6 9 12 16 20 26 31 37 43
Source: EWEA
1995 / 2010
1996 / 2011
1997 / 2012
1998 / 2013
1999 / 2014
2000 / 2015
2001 / 2016
2002 / 2017
2003 / 2018
2004 / 2019
2005 / 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45(GW)
Onshore
Offshore
2,5 3,4 4,7 6,4 9,6 12,9 17,2 22,8 28,0 33,8 39,8
2,9 3,9 5,3 8,1 10,9 14,0 17,4 21,6 26,7 33,1 40,0
Historical onshore growth (1995 - 2005) compared to EWEA's offshore projection (2010 - 2020)
Source: EWEA
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16 19
29
39.5
50
63
78
97
121
145
(TWh)
Offshore wind electricity production 2010 - 2020
Source: EWEA
Offshore wind energy marketin the EU in 2020
• Total installed capacity of 40,000 MW• Meeting 4.2% of total EU electricity
demand• Annual installations of 6,900 MW• Avoiding 102 Mt of CO2 annually• Total electricity production of 148 TWh• Annual investments in offshore wind
turbines of €10.4 billion• Cumulative investments in offshore
wind turbines of €65.9 billion in the period 2011 - 2020.
Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2030
• Total installed capacity of 150,000 MW
• Annual installations of 13,700 MW• Total electricity production of 562
TWh• Meeting 13.9% of total EU
electricity demand• Avoiding 315 Mt of CO2 in 2030• Annual investments in offshore
wind turbines of €17 billion in 2030• Cumulative investments of €145.2
billion from 2021 to 2030
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
300
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
462 489 514 534 550 562 571 579 586 591
177209
244281
322366 412 461 511 562
(TWh)
Onshore and offshore wind electricity production 2021 - 2030
Source: EWEA
A fluid supply chain
Wind turbineManuf-acturers
Structuralfabricators
Electricalsuppliers
Marinecontractors
Cablesuppliers
Cableinstallers
EPCIcontractors
Portoperators
Exampleincumbents
Siemens,Vestas,REpower,Areva
SIF,Smulders,Bladt, EEW,Weserwind,BiFAB, Aker
ABB,SiemensEnergy,Alstom Grid
A2Sea,MPI, SHL,Geosea
Nexans,Prysmian,ABB NKT,Scanrope
Technip,CT Offshore,GlobalMarine,Visser&Smit
Fluor,Van Oord,ABJV, MTHojgaard,DEME
Various
Examplenewentrants
BARD, GE,Doosan,Gamesa,Alstom,Nordex,Mitsubishi
H&W,TAG, Tata,Hereema,ZPMC,Shinan,Fabricom
C&G Fred Olsen,Beluga,Inwind,GOAH,Sea Jacks
DRAKA,JDR
Beluga Hochtief,Saipem,Technip,Subsea7
Various
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3 Legend:Ticks and crosses representlikelihood of positioningat relevant Level in thecontractual hierarchy:
Likely Possible Unlikely
Source: GL Garrad Hassan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Total (pessimistic) Total (central) Total (optimistic) Firm capacity
Supply and demand for offshore wind turbine technology in Europe
Demand (EWEA)
(TWh)
Source: GL Garrad Hassan
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monopile Grafity-based structure Space-frame
Historic offshore wind turbinefoundation market share (by year)
Source: GL Garrad Hassan
Analysis of supply and demand for HV subsea cables
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Demand
2014 20192013 201720162015 20202012
2011
2018
2010
0
2,000
1,000
4,000
1,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Source: GL Garrad Hassan
Projected offshore installation vessel supply and demand (vessels per annum)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
200
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Main installation vessels (offshore wind)
Demand - repair
Demand - foundations
Demand - turbines
Supply – firm capacity
Supply – low case
Supply – mid case
Supply – high case
Source: GL Garrad Hassan
2014 20192013 201720162015 20202012
2011
2018
2010
0
5
10
40
20
25
30
35
15
Example of European ports for offshore wind construction
About the European Wind Energy Association
EWEA is the voice of the wind industry, actively promoting wind power in Europe and worldwide. It has over 700 members from almost 60 countries making EWEA the world's largest and most powerful wind energy network.
Rue d'Arlon 80B-1040 BrusselsBelgiumwww.ewea.org
To download the pdf version click here
If you want to see more statistics, reports, news and information about wind energy event please visit EWEA’s website www.ewea.org or contact us at [email protected]
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