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INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY

The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry today is in the front rank

of India’s science-based industries with wide ranging

capabilities in the complex field of drug manufacture and

technology. It ranks very high in the third world, in terms of

technology, quality and range of medicines manufactured.

From simple headache pills to sophisticated antibiotics and

complex cardiac compounds, almost every type of medicine is

now made indigenously.

Playing a key role in promoting and sustaining development in

the vital field of medicines, Indian Pharma Industry boasts of

quality producers and many units approved by regulatory

authorities in USA and UK. International companies

associated with this sector have stimulated, assisted and

spearheaded this dynamic development in the past 53 years

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and helped to put India on the pharmaceutical map of the

world.

GROWTH SCENARIO IN 2010

India's pharmaceutical industry is now the third largest in the

world in terms of volume. Its rank is 14th in terms of value.

Between September 2008 and September 2009, the total

turnover of India's pharmaceuticals industry was US$ 21.04

billion. The domestic market was worth US$ 12.26 billion.

This was reported by the Department of Pharmaceuticals,

Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers. As per a report by IMS

Health India, the Indian pharmaceutical market reached US$

10.04 billion in size in July 2010. A highly organized sector,

the Indian Pharma Industry is estimated to be worth $ 4.5

billion, growing at about 8 to 9 percent annually.

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FUTURE PROSPECTS

The Indian pharmaceuticals market is expected to reach US$

55 billion in 2020 from US$ 12.6 billion in 2009. This was

stated in a report title "India Pharma 2020: Propelling access

and acceptance, realizing true potential" by McKinsey &

Company. In the same report, it was also mentioned that in an

aggressive growth scenario, the Pharma market has the further

potential to reach US$ 70 billion by 2020

Due to increase in the population of high income group, there

is every likelihood that they will open a potential US$ 8

billion market for multinational companies selling costly drugs

by 2015. This was estimated in a report by Ernst & Young.

The domestic Pharma market is estimated to touch US$ 20

billion by 2015. The healthcare market in India to reach US$

31.59 billion by 2020. The sale of all types of pharmaceutical

drugs and medicines in the country stands at US$ 9.61 billion,

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which is expected to reach around US$ 19.22 billion by 2012.

Thus India would really become a lucrative destination for

clinical trials for global giants.

CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL

INDUSTRY

The Indian Pharmaceutical sector is highly fragmented with

more than 20,000 registered units. It has expanded drastically

in the last two decades. The leading 250 pharmaceutical

companies control 70% of the market with market leader

holding nearly 7% of the market share. It is an extremely

fragmented market with severe price competition and

government price control.

The pharmaceutical industry in India meets around 70% of the

country's demand for bulk drugs, drug intermediates,

pharmaceutical formulations, chemicals, tablets, capsules,

orals and injectibles. There are about 250 large units and about

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8000 Small Scale Units, which form the core of the

pharmaceutical industry in India (including 5 Central Public

Sector Units). These units produce the complete range of

pharmaceutical formulations, i.e., medicines ready for

consumption by patients and about 350 bulk drugs, i.e.,

chemicals having therapeutic value and used for production of

pharmaceutical formulations.

Following the de-licensing of the pharmaceutical industry,

industrial licensing for most of the drugs and pharmaceutical

products has been done away with. Manufacturers are free to

produce any drug duly approved by the Drug Control

Authority. Technologically strong and totally self-reliant, the

pharmaceutical industry in India has low costs of production,

low R&D costs, innovative scientific manpower, strength of

national laboratories and an increasing balance of trade. The

Pharmaceutical Industry, with its rich scientific talents and

research capabilities, supported by Intellectual Property

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Protection regime is well set to take on the international

market.

CHALLENGES

All of these changes are ultimately good for the Indian pharmaceutical

industry, which suffered in the past from inadequate regulation and large

quantities of spurious drugs. They force the industry to reach a level

necessary for global competitiveness. However, they have also exposed

some of the inadequacies in the industry today. Its main weakness is an

underdeveloped new molecule discovery program. Even after the

increased investment, market leaders such as Ranbaxy and Dr. Reddy’s

Laboratories spent only 5-10% of their revenues on R&D, lagging behind

Western pharmaceuticals like Pfizer, whose research budget last year was

greater than the combined revenues of the entire Indian pharmaceutical

industry. This disparity is too great to be explained by cost differentials,

and it comes when advances in genomics have made research equipment

more expensive than ever. The drug discovery process is further hindered

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by a dearth of qualified molecular biologists. Due to the disconnect

between curriculum and industry, pharma’s in India also lack the

academic collaboration that is crucial to drug development in the West.

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Win-Medicare Pvt. Ltd.

In the early 80s, Mr. Umesh K. Modi felt the need to expand his business

beyond the existing strata. Healthcare was a viable option, for beyond

business, was his noble intention to serve the health needs of India. Thus

was formed Win-Medicare in the early 1980s. In Collaboration with

Sterling Drug of USA. In 1989, the relationship with Eastman Kodak

came to an end. In 1990 Win-Medicare became a licensee of

Mundipharma for Betadine.

In 1990 J.V. of Modi-Mundipharma was established and Win-Medicare

was acquired by Modi-Mundipharma.

What began as an early vision of healthcare business, is today amongst

the fastest growing pharmaceutical companies in India. In the country’s

highly fragmented pharmaceuticals market, Win-Medicare enjoys a

respectable share and is considered the undisputed leader in select

segment. It has made its brand ‘Betadine’ into India’s 14th largest

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pharmaceutical brand. In 75 countries ‘Betadine’ is trusted for its

uncompromising antiseptic efficacy.

Win-Medicare has a manufacturing plant in Modipuram (for tablets,

capsules & injections) and another Manufacturing plant at GSP Behror,

Rajasthan dedicated to Betadine. Its distribution reach is to more than

2,00,000 chemists pan India.

About Umesh Modi Group

Umesh Modi group, one of the largest industrial conglomerate in India,

has made its mark in the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics business. The

group’s interests are also spread across diverse business ventures, the

principal being:

Pharma & Healthcare

Cosmetics

Iron and steel

Sugar

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Distillery & Alcohol

Power & Bio Energy

Writing Instruments

Engineering

Travel and Tour

Umesh Modi Group has 25 branch offices all over India, 8000 skilled and

professionally qualified executives, 18 production units spread across

India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, two R&D centres and collaboration

with 15 multinational companies thus having distinction of having one of

the largest numbers of foreign collaborations among leading business

houses in India. Among many international brands introduced in India by

the group few key ones are: Betadine, Hepa Merz, Revlon,

Morgardshammar, Senator, Silence, Bodysol and Mederma.

The group has its corporate head quarter in New Delhi and is headed by

the Group Chairman, President, and CEO, Mr. Umesh K. Modi.

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Flying high, the group continues to work hard and keep its eyes fixed on

the goal to deliver the range of quality products. The mantra of Umesh

Modi Group is “achieve the benchmarked, then set your own standards

and surpass them too”.

About Mr. Umesh K. Modi

Mr. Umesh K. Modi is the Group Chairman, President and CEO of the

Umesh Modi Group. He is the youngest son of Late Raibahadur Gujar

Mal Modi. A name to reckon with in the Indian Industry firmament, Mr.

Umesh K. Modi has been instrumental in bringing the largest number of

internationally renowned collaborators to India.

Under the tutelage of his father, he started his career in 1972 at the Modi

Steel Sugar in Modinagar. He was 23-years-old then and had just passed

out from the Banaras Hindu University with a gold medal in Chemical

engineering. A man of vision, he quickly learnt to grow beyond his area

of expertise. Constantly looking for growth opportunities, he expanded

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the Modi Group from the humble sugar-mill beginning to its current

conglomerate avatar. And while on the path, he was instrumental in

changing the face of the domestic industrial scenario. Particularly

creditworthy is his role in introducing innovative technologies to India,

thereby fuelling the country’s industrial development.

He took the bold step of initiating joint ventures and alliances with

European and American companies in the 1980’s when it was not as

common as it is today. His mantra: in order to build modern plants, have

world-class partners via alliances and obtain a technology edge to

succeed. A foresight like this earned him the “Man of the Year” award for

the year 1984 from the Ministry of Industries.

A man of strict ethics, Mr. Umesh K. Modi puts the organisation before

himself. He humbly prefers to see himself as a trustee of the organisation

rather than the master. A quick decision maker, he spends his time

personally strategising and expects this to be followed by strong

execution. Mr. Umesh K. Modi has held the prestigious Chairmanship of

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the various organisations such as Steel Furnace Association of India,

Western U.P. Sugar Mills Association, Steel Wire Manufacturers

Association of India, Sponge Iron Association of India as well as the

Presidentship of the Institute of Economic Studies. He continues to be an

active member and office bearer of many international organisations such

as the Young Presidents Organisation, Industrial Council of

Development, among others. Besides this, he also heads a number of

corporations set up with international collaborators.

Group History

The Modi Group of Companies, a family business, was founded in 1933

by late Raibahadur G.M Modi. Ever since Mr. Umesh K. Modi stepped

in, the business has been growing at an increasing pace. With his hard

work and determination to succeed, he has developed many successful

industries till date.

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His children, Ms. Meghna Modi, Mrs. Himani Modi Agarwal, Mr.

Abhishek Modi and Mr. Jayesh Modi are now actively involved in the

business and its expansion.

Vision And Mission

Vision: To deliver the best in class products and brands to the Indian

consumer by collaborating with leading International Organizations in the

field of Manufacturing, Technology, Research & Development and

Marketing.

Mission: Umesh Modi Group to achieve a turnover of $ 1 billion by

2015.

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OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

1. The objective is to understand the Manpower Planning

Strategies used in EPI.

2. To know the satisfaction level of workers and employees.

3. Achieving the organizational goals.

4. Determining training needs.

5. Correct forecasting of Manpower requirements.

6. Improving the motivation and morale of the employees.

7. Recruiting Manpower according to the need of the

organization keeping in view the present technological

changes.

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SCOPE OF THE STUDY

Scope covers only Win Medicare Employees. Their

preferences are on basis of various factors related to proper

Manpower Planning.

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY & SAMPLING

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Define research as a scientific and systematic search for

pertaining information of specific topic. It is the pursuit of

truth with the help of studies, observation and

experimentation. Research in common parlance refers to

research for knowledge. One can also

The following are the seven steps of a research:

1. Preparing a list of the needed information.

2. Designing the data - collecting project.

3. Selecting & determining sample type.

4. Organizing and carrying out of the fieldwork.

5. Analyzing and collective data and reporting the findings.

The research plan that was designed to enable me in collecting

the required information is shown below.

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1. Data source: Secondary data, Primary data

2. Research Instruments: Questionnaire

3. Contact Method: Direct Interview & Telephone

RESEARCH DESIGN

A research design is a specification of method and procedures

or acquiring the information needed. It is the overall

observational pattern or framework of the projects that

stipulates what information is to be collected, from which

sources, by what procedure.

Step – 1 Planning of Questionnaire

Step – 2 Questionnaires

Step – 3 Collect the primary data from it & secondary

data from records

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RESEARCH PROBLEM

In research the first and foremost step happens to be that of

selecting and properly defining a research problem. A

researcher must find the problem and formulate it so that it

becomes susceptible to research.A research problem, in

general refers to some difficulty which a researcher

experiences in the context of either a theoretical or practical

situation and wants to obtains solution for the same.

Sample Size

100 Respondent

Sample Unit

Supervisor and Managers

DATA COLLECTION METHOD

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Questionnaire Method

RESEARCH TOOL

% method represented by pie charts.

SAMPLE METHOD

Random sampling

FIELD OF WORK

Human Resource Department

Questionnaire - A questionnaire has been devised suitably to cover the

vital factors of manpower planning which include forecasting, sources of

recruitment, method of recruitment, etc. These have been discussed

elsewhere in the earlier chapters. The author choose; a close ended

pattern of questionnaire rather than an open ended questionnaire. The

reasons for such a pattern are:

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i) As the top and middle level managers are apparently busy people it

would be easy for them to check the various possible answers

supplied in close ended questionnaire.

ii) A close ended questionnaire safeguards against indulging in vague

and desultory expressions. Therefore, for the purpose of analysis

and to ensure correct evaluation, the author decided on

administering close ended questionnaire. Adequate care has been

taken in arranging the questions in a logical order, avoiding any

confusion of misgivings. A specimen of the questionnaire is

attached as Annex.

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PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED IN DATA COLLECTION:

The author faced the normal problems in data collection, i.e.

certain employees at various levels are not that sincere which type of

casual approach which exists in our culture, normally creates problems

of updating records and information at the time of survey. However there

has been no extra ordinary problem or hurdle faced in data collection

except a few here and there which may even be there in quite a perfect

system.

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MANPOWER PLANNING

Manpower Planning which is also called as Human Resource

Planning consists of putting right number of people, right kind of

people at the right place, right time, doing the right things for which

they are suited for the achievement of goals of the organization.

Human Resource Planning has got an important place in the arena of

industrialization. Human Resource Planning has to be a systems

approach and is carried out in a set procedure. The procedure is as

follows:

1. Analyzing the current manpower inventory

2. Making future manpower forecasts

3. Developing employment programmes

4. Design training programmes

ANALYZING THE CURRENT MANPOWER INVENTORY

Before a manager makes forecast of future manpower, the current

manpower status has to be analyzed. For this the following things

have to be noted-

Type of organization

Number of departments

Number and quantity of such departments

Employees in these work units

Once these factors are registered by a manager, he goes for the

future forecasting.

MAKING FUTURE MANPOWER FORECASTS

Once the factors affecting the future manpower forecasts are known,

planning can be done for the future manpower requirements in

several work units.

The Manpower forecasting techniques commonly employed by the

organizations are as follows:

Expert Forecasts: This includes informal decisions, formal

expert surveys and Delphi technique.

Trend Analysis: Manpower needs can be projected through

extrapolation (projecting past trends), indexation (using base

year as basis), and statistical analysis (central tendency

measure).

Work Load Analysis: It is dependent upon the nature of work

load in a department, in a branch or in a division.

Work Force Analysis: Whenever production and time period

has to be analyzed, due allowances have to be made for getting

net manpower requirements.

Other methods: Several Mathematical models, with the aid of

computers are used to forecast manpower needs, like budget

and planning analysis, regression, new venture analysis.

DEVELOPING EMPLOYMENT PROGRAMMES

Once the current inventory is compared with future forecasts, the

employment programmes can be framed and developed accordingly,

which will include recruitment, selection procedures and placement

plans.

IMPORTANCE OF MANPOWER PLANNING

1. Key to managerial functions- The four managerial functions,

i.e., planning, organizing, directing and controlling are based

upon the manpower. Human resources help in the

implementation of all these managerial activities. Therefore,

staffing becomes a key to all managerial functions.

2. Efficient utilization- Efficient management of personnels

becomes an important function in the industrialization world

of today. Setting of large scale enterprises require

management of large scale manpower. It can be effectively

done through staffing function.

3. Motivation- Staffing function not only includes putting right

men on right job, but it also comprises of motivational

programmes, i.e., incentive plans to be framed for further

participation and employment of employees in a concern.

Therefore, all types of incentive plans become an integral part

of staffing function.

4. Better human relations- A concern can stabilize itself if

human relations develop and are strong. Human relations

become strong trough effective control, clear communication,

effective supervision and leadership in a concern. Staffing

function also looks after training and development of the work

force which leads to co-operation and better human relations.

5. Higher productivity- Productivity level increases when

resources are utilized in best possible manner. higher

productivity is a result of minimum wastage of time, money,

efforts and energies. This is possible through the staffing and

its related activities ( Performance appraisal, training and

development, remuneration)

NEED OF MANPOWER PLANNING

Manpower Planning is a two-phased process because

manpower planning not only analyses the current human resources

but also makes manpower forecasts and thereby draw employment

programmes. Manpower Planning is advantageous to firm in

following manner:

1. Shortages and surpluses can be identified so that quick action

can be taken wherever required.

2. All the recruitment and selection programmes are based on

manpower planning.

3. It also helps to reduce the labour cost as excess staff can be

identified and thereby overstaffing can be avoided.

4. It also helps to identify the available talents in a concern and

accordingly training programmes can be chalked out to

develop those talents.

5. It helps in growth and diversification of business. Through

manpower planning, human resources can be readily available

and they can be utilized in best manner.

6. It helps the organization to realize the importance of

manpower management which ultimately helps in the stability

of a concern.

MANPOWER PLANNING AT DIFFERENT LEVELS

There are various levels of manpower planning in an industrial

enterprise, but each has its own objectives and techniques. It may

broadly be carried out at corporate, divisional and plant levels. The

purpose of carrying out manpower planning at various levels is the

systematic projection of manpower requirements for the future. Its

done to determine the effects of anticipated changes in technology,

markets and products on manpower requirements--and training

requirements.

Its better for manpower planning to start at the lowest

organizational level and then move upward. There is no doubt that a

corporate plan is developed by the body of top executives with the

help of corporate staff planners. However, if personnel lower down

in the organization start the planning process I the organization

shall reap the benefits of thinking of persons who are more familiar

with the day-to-day problems and will be more interested in

fulfilling the plans if they have had a hand in formulating them.

Therefore manpower planning should begin at the lower

organization level and be reviewed at successively higher

organizational echelons.

Manpower planning at the plant level can be conducted by an

operating committee on the basis of past data and future projection.

The committee would formulate a manpower plan for the next five

year. including the number of employees required and the sources

which could be utilized to meet these requirements .

It would also determine the number of promotable employees for the

annual manpower plan. Finally the committee will evaluate these

plans in the light of expected changes of all kinds within the next

five years with the help of manpower planning experts. In line with

the

principles of functional and administrative supervision, this plan

would in turn be submitted to the next organizational level which

would be the departmental level. Each division or department of the

organization will have the divisional committee which would review

the manpower plans submitted by ail the plants in the division.

At the highest level, a committee of top executives will review

all the plans submitted by the divisional committees and will

develop similar plans for the headquarter staff .It will make

projections of manpower requirements of various kinds during the

next five years. At this level adequate emphasis will be given to the

executive manpower planning because it takes a long time before a

person is developed into a better executive. The committee will

have at its disposal all the records and statistics regarding

employees turnover during the previous year, employees going to

retire in future and so on.

OBJECTIVES OF MANPOWER PLANNING ARE AS

FOLLOWS:-

1. Determining recruitment needs: An essential prerequisite to

the process of recruitment is to avoid problems of unexpected

shortage, wastage, blockages in the promotion flow and

needless redundancies.

2. Determining training needs: this is fundamentally important

to planning training programs, for which its necessary to

assess not only quantity but also quality in terms of the skills

required by the organization.

3. Management development: A succession of trained and

experienced managers is essential to the effectiveness of the

organization, and this depends on accurate information about

present and future requirements in all management posts.

4. Balancing the cost between the utilization of plant and

workforce: This involves comparing costs of these two

resources in different costing projects.

5. Industrial relation: The business plan will, of necessity,

make assumption about productivity of the human resource. It

will have an impact on the organization's industrial relations

strategies.

PROCESS OF MANPOWER PLANNING:-

The process of Manpower Planning involves the following steps as

shown in :

Objectives of Manpower Planning

Inventory of Manpower Skills

Demand and Supply Forecasting

Determine Net Manpower Requirements

Appraisal of Human Resource Planning

Training and Development Program

Employment Program

Redeployment and Redundancy Plan

Manpower planning is a continuous process. It involves the

following steps:

1. Determination of objectives of manpower planning.

2. Preparation of current manpower inventory.

3. Demand forecasting.

4. Supply forecasting.

5. Estimating the net manpower requirements.

6. Action plan for redeployment and redundancy.

7. Employment plan

8. Training and development program.

PROCESS OF MANPOWER PLANNING:

1. Objective of Manpower Planning:

The ultimate purpose of the manpower planning is the to relate

future human resources to future enterprise needs so as to maximize

the future return on investment in human resources. "Therefore

manpower planning should be more concerned with filling future

vacancies with right type of people rather than with matching

existing personnel with existing jobs.

2. Current Manpower Inventory:

Analysis of current manpower supply may be undertaken by

department, by function, by occupation, or by level of skill or

qualifications. Systematic steps must be taken in order to ensure

that a reservoir of talent is available when vacancies occur. To be

sure that available talent has been included the inventory of various

skills in the enterprise should be indexed. This record will provide

the foundations for a program of individual development.

3. Demand forecasting: The factors relevant for manpower

forecasting are as follows:

(a) Employment trends : The manpower planning committee at

the corporate level should make an examination of number of

the employees on the payroll during the past five years to

know the trend within each group. With help of this it would

be possible to determine whether a particular group has been

stable or unstable whether it has been expanding or

contracting.

(b) Replacement needs : The need for replacement arises due to

death, retirement, resignation and termination of employees.

(c) Productivity : An important area to which the manpower

planning is related is the improvement in the productivity,

Gains in productivity will influence the requirements of

manpower.

(d) Growth and expansion : Another aspect relevant for

manpower planning is personnel requirement for growth and

expansion of the organization. The expansion plans of various

plants and division should be carefully reviewed to assess

their probable effects on the number of employees required in

each group.

(e) Absenteeism : It means a situation when a person fails to

come for work when he is scheduled to work.

(f) Work study: Work study technique can be used when its

possible to apply work measurement to know how long

operations should take and the amount labour required.

4. Supply Forecasting: Along with the demand forecasting its

equally important to forecast the supply of different types of

personnel with organization at the cutoff date of human resources

planning. There are two sources of supply of manpower¬ internal

and external. But internal supply is more important for manpower

planning. It comprises of the employees working in the organization

who can be promoted or transferred to fill up various jobs as and

when they fall vacant.

This would required evaluation of the present personnel

abilities, their strengthen and weakness, so as to gauge their

suitability for different jobs. In order to estimate internal supply of

personnel, its necessary to conduct human resources audit and

prepare replacement charts in advance.

(a) Human resources audit: it gives a through idea of potential and

capabilities of persons working in the organization.

(b) Replacement charts are meant for listing each key position and

indicating time when its likely to be vacated, They also list the

most likely candidates working in the organization suitable to

fill vacancies and also the time when they would be ready for

promotion.

5. Estimating the net human resources requirements: The

human resources planner must compare the demand forecast for

human resources with the projected internal supply of human

resources before coming to any conclusion. This exercise should be

carried out department and skill wise to know the deficiencies or

surplus of various types of personnel in future. The possibilities of

transfer of personnel from one department to another and promotion

of personnel to higher jobs must also be considered to determine net

human resources requirements in the organization as a whole.

Besides determining the number of personnel required,

its also essential to determine the qualification of personnel

required.

6. Action plan for redeployment or Redundancy: The

management has to plan for redeployment and redundancy in case of

surplus staff position. If surplus is estimated in some department,

employees can be redeployed in other departments, where the deficit

of employees is estimated.

The management should also plan for training or re-

orientation before redeployment of employees. Redundancy

plan has to be made if the surplus employees can’t be redeployed.

7. Employment plans: This phase deals with planning how the

organization can obtain the required number and right type of

personnel. In other words there is a need to prepare programs of

recruitment, selection. Transfer and promotion so that personnel

needs of various departments of the organization are met timely.

8. Training and Development programs: The preparation of

human resources inventory helps in the identifying the training and

development needs of the organization. Training is necessary not

only for the new employees, but also for the existing employees. All

types of job require some sort of training for their efficient

performance. The talent Of employees are not fully productive

without a systematic program of training.

Evaluation of Effectiveness of Manpower planning: After the

employment and training programs have been implemented, an

appraisal must be made of the effectiveness of manpower planning.

Deficiencies in the program should be pointed out and the catalogue

of manpower inventory should be updated periodically. An appraisal

of the existing manpower plans will also serve as a guide in the

future manpower planning.

MANPOWER FORECASTING

In a dynamic world, it is seldom possible to validate a

projection and this makes people hesitant to spend time and money

in attempting manpower forecasting for the companies. But before

discarding forecasting as impracticable, one could correctly

understand the purpose of manpower forecasting in a firm and its

implications.

The Company, after examining past trends and current

developments, sets forth a working model of the system of data. It

is then, a series of assumptions stated about how the important

variables are likely to behave in the future and these assumptions

are used to modify past trends of the variables. The accuracy of

these projections depends 'on the realism of the assumptions and the

identification of all the relevant variables.

In case of manpower projection which are made for policy purposes,

it may not even be appropriate to consider validation, since the

purpose of projection may be to warn avoidance of the crisis, and

therefore, invalidate the projection. In any case, the projection

cannot be more correct than the assumptions. One of the most

important uses of projection is, therefore, to read the situation as it

is, or as it emerges, evaluate the assumptions, make further

refinements and revisions and thus to be able to maintain proper

control in course of time. It should be clearly understood that

projection do not provide a blue print of the future. They can point

the direction and signal the warnings for policy changes policies.

Forecasting provides the basic premises on which the manpower

planning is built. Forecasting is necessary for various reasons such

as:

1. The eventualities and contingencies of general economic

business cycles (such as inflation, wages, prices, costs and raw

material supplies) have an influence on the short-range and

long run plans of all organization.

2. An expansion following enlargement and growth in business

involves the use of additional machinery and personnel, and

reallocation of facilities.

3. Changes in management philosophies and leadership styles.

4. the use of mechanical technology necessitate changes in skills

of workers, as well as change in the number of employees

needed.

5. Very often a change in the quantity or quality of products or

services require a change in the organization structure.

After estimating what the future organization structure should be

the next step is to draw up the requirements of human resources,

both for the existing departments and for new vacancies. For this

purpose a forecast of labour force is needed.

MANPOWER INVENTORIES AND COMPUTERS

The application of new technology to record keeping enables

management to make more effective use of employee records in this

regard. In addition to personal biographical information, such as

age, education and training, work experience and perhaps some

psychological factors, such records contain a job history of the

employees within the company. When records are computerized, it

becomes possible to answer quickly questions like the following:

1. How many employees in what jobs will be retiring in each

future year?

2. How many employees with appropriate backgrounds will be

available for promotion?

LIMITATION OF FORECASTING

Forecasting is still far from an exact science. While advance

planning is useful in seeking to anticipate personnel changes which

are just beginning to show themselves, management needs to

remember that such forecasts depend upon the continuation of

trends, which may easily change. A decline in the economy can

change drastically both the need for manpower and even the number

of voluntary resignations. The results can be predicted shortage in

certain jobs becomes a difficult surplus.

TECHNIQUE OF FORECASTING

There are two types of technique of forecasting

1. Forecasting the demand for labor.

2. The internal supply of labor.

Demand forecasting methods can be divided into two categories:

JUDGMENTAL AND MATHEMATICAL :

Judgmental methods : These methods may be used by small

organizations or by those new to HR forecasting. Judgmental may

be also preferred when an organization or an environment in a state

of transition or turmoil, at such times, past trends and correlation

cannot be used to make accurate prediction about the future.

Perhaps the simplest judgmental method is bottom up, or unit,

forecasting: Each unit, branch, or department estimates its own

future need for employees. Idealiy managers receive some guidance

and information, which they combine with their own perspectives to

reach the estimates. The sum of the estimated unit needs is the

demand forecast for the whole organization.

Another judgmental method involves top down forecasting by

experienced top managers and executives. These experts meet to

discuss how trends, business plans, the economy, and other factors

will affect the need for human resources at various levels of the

organization. Besides predicting the most likely future demand,

these experts also may make separate forecasts based on best and

worst scenarios. After completing such exercises, the expert can be

fairly certain that the actual demand for labor will fall somewhere

between their best worst case predictions.

Delphi technique: In using this technique, the expert do not meet

face to face. This method is more economical.

The first step in the Delphi process is to develop an

anonymous questionnaire that asks the experts for an opinion and

reasons that they hold that opinion. The results of this questionnaire

are compiled and returned to the experts, along with a second

anonymous questionnaire. In this way the expert can learn from one

another and modify or elaborate their position in the second

questionnaire. The process continues through several more rounds

until the expert agree on a judgment.

Simple Mathematical methods: The simplest mathematical

methods of forecasting use only one factor to predict demand. For

example, to predict the need for labor, one could examine staffing

levels during the last few years, note the trend, and extend the trend

to the upcoming year's sales, production, or another business factor

related to the need for labor. This information would then be

combined with productivity ratios to predict the number of direct

labor employees needed.

The productivity ratio is the average number of units produced

per direct tabor employees per year. Direct to indirect labor staffing

ratios are used to calculate the number of individuals required in

other jobs. Productivity and staffing ratios based on historical data

may be modified judgmentally if the ratios are expected to change.

Complex mathematical methods: Large organizations with a

long history of HR planning are likely to employ these methods.

One such method, multiple regressions, uses several factors that

correlate with tabor demand to forecast future demand. Examples of

such factors include sales, profits, capital investment, and gross

national product. Historical data are used to derive an equation

describing the relationships of these factors to employment levels;

then current or predicted values of the factors are inserted into the

equation predict future demand.

A second forecasting method employs linear, or goal,

programming to determine optimal staffing levels given a set of

constraints. Constraint might include compensation budgets,

minimum and maximum ratios between various kinds of jobs, or

minimum and maximum output figures.

THE INTERNAL SUPPLY OF LABOR :

Once the demand for labor is predicted, it is necessary to

forecast the supply of labor that the organization will already have

available to meet the demand. The internal supply of labor consists

of all the individuals currently employed by an organization. These

employ can help to fill future demands by remaining employed in

their current positions or by being promoted or transferred to fill

vacancies elsewhere in the organization. The internal supply of

labor is constantly changing as new people enter and others resign,

retire, or are discharged.

Predicting the internal supply of labor: Markov analysis is a

fairly simple method of predicting the internal supply of labor at

some future time. The heart of Markov analysis is the transition

probability matrix, which describes the probabilities of an

incumbent's staying in his or her present job for the forecast time

period, moving to another job in the organization, or leaving the

organization. When this matrix is multiplied by the number of

people beginning the year in each job, the result show how many

people are expected to be in each job by the end of the year.

DIFFICULTIES IN MANPOWER PLANNING:

Manpower planning is not always effective. Some of the major

problems are described below:

1. Lack of Understanding of Rationale of planning: There is

generally identity crisis and many Managers as well as human

resources specialist do not fully understand the rationale or

purpose human resource planning.

2. Insufficient Top Manager's support: In the long run, human

resource.

Planning must have the full support of top management.I

otherwise its going to be ineffective.

3. Insufficient initial Efforts: Manpower planning might fail

because of lack of sufficient initial efforts. To be successful J

manpower planning should start slowly and expand gradually.

4. Lack of Coordination with other Function: To be effective,

manpower planning must be coordinated with other

management functions.

5. Lack of Integration with Organizational plans: Manpower

planning must be based on organizational objectives and plans.

This requires development of good communication channels

between organizational planners and the human resources

planners.

6. Non-cooperation of Operating Managers: Manpower

planning may fail because of non-cooperation between the

personnel and other functional managers.

In order to ensure effective manpower planning, its essential

to take necessary action to bridge the gap between the present

resources and the estimated future needs. Future action should be

planned for both short term and long term to include:

{1} Better job descriptions and human profiles.

{2} A hard look at the recruitment and selection policy.

{3} A scheme for assessing performance and potential of

individuals. {4} An examination of the current training and

training schemes for all employees.

{5} An examination of the conditions of employment which would

include pay structure I shift work, working hours, etc.

INTERPRETATION

1> Do you understand the meaning of Manpower Planning?

a. Yes b. No

CRITERIA RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE

YES 78 78

NO 22 22

78% resondent is understand the meaning of Manpower Planning

Q2. Does it important to have proper Manpower Planning?

a. Yes b. No

CRITERIA RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE

YES 60 60

NO 40 40

1 is yes and 2 is no

Findings

The modern pharmaceutical industry is a highly competitive non-

assembled global industry. Its origins can be traced back to the nascent

chemical industry of the late nineteenth century in the Upper Rhine Valley near

Basel, Switzerland when dyestuffs were found to have antiseptic properties. A

host of modern pharmaceutical companies all started out as Rhine-based family

dyestuff and chemical companies e.g. Hoffman-La Roche, Sandoz, Ciba-Geigy

(the product of a merger between Ciba and Geigy), Novartis etc. Most are still

going strong today. Over time many of these chemical companies moved into

the production of pharmaceuticals and other synthetic chemicals and they

gradually evolved into global players. The introduction and success of penicillin

and other innovative drugs in the early forties institutionalized research and

development (R&D) efforts in the industry. The industry expanded rapidly in

the sixties, benefiting from new discoveries and a lax regulatory environment.

During this period healthcare spending boomed as global economies prospered.

The industry witnessed major developments in the seventies with the

introduction of tighter regulatory controls, especially with the introduction of

regulations governing the manufacture of ‘generics’. The new regulations

revoked permanent patents and established fixed periods on patent protection

for branded products, a result of which the market for ‘branded generics’

emerged.

Suggestion and Recommendations

Complex mathematical methods: Large organizations with a

long history of HR planning are likely to employ these methods.

One such method, multiple regressions, uses several factors that

correlate with tabor demand to forecast future demand. Examples of

such factors include sales, profits, capital investment, and gross

national product. Historical data are used to derive an equation

describing the relationships of these factors to employment levels;

then current or predicted values of the factors are inserted into the

equation predict future demand.

Conclusion

Industrial licensing has been abolished for all drugs, formulations and

drug intermediates except for the five drugs which are reserved for public

sector. Moreover, price controls have been waived for a period of five years for

drugs which have been developed indigenously there is a price controls under

DPCO, still a majority of drugs in the market are not regulated and the price rise

during this period is still considered to be minimal. In short, while the DPCO

has evolved in a step-by-step ad hoc fashion, it has managed to strike a rough

balance between regulating prices to ensure adequate access to essential

medicines for the rural and urban poor, while allowing the emergence of a

globally competitive Indian domestic drug industry. The new research

environment has added important new elements to the risk environment of

pharmaceutical research as a by-product of the dramatic exploration of entirely

new areas of application. Manufacturers that venture into new territory are less

certain of what they will find and less confident of what it will be worth when

they find it—they face new uncertainties over both supply and demand.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Human Resource Management

by T.N. Chhabra

Personnel Management

by Arun Monappa Mirza Saiyadai

Human Resource Development and Training

by Dr. K. S. Anandaram

Management of human resource

by Ghosh P

Notes by Mr. Krishna Murthy

Appendix

List of Indian Companies having Type-II (Active) DMF filing Table : 25 List of Indian Companies having Type-II (Active) DMF filing

DMF HOLDER LOCATION NO. OF DMF ALCHYMARS ICM SM PRIVATE LTD TAMIL NADU, INDIA. 1 ALCON BIOSCIENCES PVT LTD GUJARAT, INDIA. 1 ALEMBIC LIMITED (API DIVISION) GUJARAT, INDIA 22 ALKALI METALS LTD HYDERABAD, INDIA. 1 ALKALOIDS CORP ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA. 1 ALKEM LABORATORIES LTD GUJARAT STATE, INDIA 1

ALPEX INTERNATIONAL PVT LTD ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA. 3 AMOLI ORGANICS PVT LTD GUJARAT, INDIA 2 ANDHRA SUGARS LTD ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA. 2 ANJAN DRUG PVT LTD TAMIL NADU INDIA 1 ANTIBIOTICOS SPA CHENNAI, INDIA. 1 ANUH PHARMA LTD MAHARASHTRA, INDIA 2 APICORE LLC GUJARAT, INDIA FOR APICORE

LLC 1

APOTEX PHARMACHEM INC ANDHRA PRADESH INDIA 3 APOTEX PHARMACHEM INC GUJARAT, INDIA. 2 APOTEX PHARMACHEM INC BANGALORE, INDIA 5 ARCH PHARMALABS LTD MAHARASHTRA, INDIA. 1 ARCH PHARMALABS LTD HYDERABAD, INDIA. 4 ARTEMIS BIOTECH HYDERABAD, INDIA. 1 ASENCE PHARMA PVT LTD GUJARAT, INDIA 1 ASIAN HERBEX LTD ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA 1 AURO LABORATORIES LTD MAHARASHTRA INDIA 1 AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA. 119 AVENTIS PHARMA DEUTSCHLAND GMBH GUJARAT, INDIA 1 AVON ORGANICS LTD MAHARASHTRA, INDIA. 3 BASIC PHARMA LIFE SCIENCE PVT LTD GUJARAT, INDIA. 3 BELCHER PHARMACEUTICALS INC MAHARASHTRA, INDIA. 1 BENZOCHEM LIFESCIENCES PVT LTD BOISAR, INDIA 6 BIOCON LTD BANGALORE, INDIA. 16 CADILA HEALTHCARDE LIMITED PADRA (GUJARAT), INDIA 61 CADILA PHARMACEUTICALS LTD GUJARAT, INDIA. 28 CALYX CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

MAHARASHTRA INDIA 6

CENTAUR CHEMICALS PVT LTD MAHARASHTRA, INDIA. 2 CIPLA LTD MAHARASHTRA, INDIA 115

CIPLA LTD BANGALORE, INDIA. CIPLA LTD BOMBAY, INDIA. CIPLA LTD MAHARASHTRA, BANGALORE,

MUMBAI AND VERNA GOA, INDIA.

CIPLA LTD KURKUMBH, INDIA. CIPLA LTD KURKUMBH, BANGALORE,

PATALGANGA, VIKHROLI, INDIA

CIPLA LTD RAIGAD, INDIA. CONCORD BIOTECH LIMITED AHMEDABAD, INDIA. 5 COVALENT LABORATORIES PRIVATE LTD ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA 1 CTX LIFE SCIENCES PVT LTD GUJARAT, INDIA 3 DABUR INDIA LTD NADIA WEST BENGAL INDIA 9 DISHMAN PHARMACEUTICALS AND CHEMICAL PVT LTD

AHMEDABAD, INDIA. 4

DIVIS LABORATORIES LIMITED ANDHRA PRADESH INDIA 33

QUESTIONNAIRE

Name:

…………………………………………………………………………..

Age/

Sex..............................................................................................

Address/

Mob.......................................................................................

Q1. Do you understand the meaning of Manpower Planning?

a. Yes b. No

Q2. Does it important to have proper Manpower Planning?

a. Yes b. No

Q3. Does manpower planning helps the companies in improving

the working quality of the company ?

a. Yes b. No

Q4. Which is the most important element of Manpower Planning ?

a. Manpower Inventory b. Performance App.

c. Assessment

Q5. Does the company needs to improve the Manpower

Planning Methods?

a. Yes b. No

Q6. Do you want a separate division solely for the purpose of

manpower planning?

a. Yes b. No

Q7. Does the manpower planning division helps in the regular and

consistent growth of the company?

a. Yes b. 8 No

Q8. Does the importance of Manpower planning needs to be

explained to the employees of the company also?

a. Yes b. No

Q9. Are you satisfied with the Manpower Planning used by the

company ?

a. Yes b. No

Q10. What number and types of employee are present in the

company ?

a. Low Skilled b. Moderate Skilled

c. High Skilled

Q11. Do you considered Manpower Planning as a Strength of your

company ?

a. Yes b. No

Q12. Suggest your suggestion for improvement:

............................................................