Williamson 2014 Ocean Acidification Climate Change

8/10/2019 Williamson 2014 Ocean Acidification Climate Change

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Coastal Futures 2014 London: 23 January

Phil Williamson

Science Coordinator (NERC/UEA)UK Ocean Acidification research programme

Ocean acidification update"After much research effort, we now know alot more than when we started although itis mostly knowing how little we now know"
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=82XEnyAn7Ef6mM&tbnid=-_emIw7wYkMwZM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.nerc.ac.uk/site/logos/nerc.asp&ei=hXvVUpSXJ6LG0AWtr4HICw&bvm=bv.59378465,d.ZG4&psig=AFQjCNFczsvbDrMtsfDqjPhlJBjVHs1zKw&ust=1389808879989500


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240 papers

on OA

1624citations

up to end of 2009Scientific interest inocean acidification

began to 'take off'around 5 years ago


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Scientific interest inocean acidification


since then there has been a six-fold increase in OA publications

240 papers

on OA

1624citations

~1500 papers

on OA

~20,100

citations

up to end of 2009

up to end of 2013

ISI World of Science data (provisional for 2013)

3

3

3


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Scientific interest inocean acidification


since then there has been a six-fold increase in OA publicationswith a major UK contribution

~1500 papers

on OA

~20,100

citations

ISI World of Science data (provisional for 2013)

3

3

3

New Zealand 2%

Australia 11%

Germany 8%

Japan 4%

Canada 4%

France 4%China 3%

Sweden 2%

28 others 14%

UK 14%

USA 32%

First authorship of OA publications 2005-11


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Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2C. Nature Climate Change(online 2 Dec)

GlobalCO2

emissions(GtCp

a)

Year

The driver for ocean acidification:increasing CO2emissions due to human activities


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CO2

in

atmosphere(ppm)

hence increased CO2in the atmosphere

Hawaii (Mauna Loa)South Pole

IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch


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andincreased CO2in the upper ocean

CO2

inupperocean(atm)

CO2in Atlantic OceanCO2in Pacific Ocean

CO2

in

atmosphere(ppm)



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and decreased upper ocean pH (increased H+)

pH8.12

8.09

8.06


pH in Atlantic Ocean

pH in Pacific OceanCO2

inupperocean(atm)

CO2

in

atmosphere(ppm)


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acidic basic

Stomachacid

Coca cola Coffee

Distilled

water

Surfaceseawater

Householdbleach

pH scale: logarithmic

10 32 54 76 98 10 1211 1413

0.3 decrease in pH = doubling of H+concentration(decrease is considered to be "acidification",

wherever on the scale it occurs)


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acidic basic

Stomachacid

Coca cola Surfaceseawater

10 32 54 76 98 10 1211 1413

Pre-industrial

Present daypH scale for maps



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acidic basic

Stomachacid

Coca cola Surfaceseawater

10 32 54 76 98 10 1211 1413

Pre-industrial

Present daypH scale for maps

Projected for 2100under business as usual



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Increased H+is not the only changeinvolved in ocean acidification

increase

increase

decrease

increase


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increase

increase

decrease

increase

HCO3+

CO32 -

0 +100 +200 +300

% change in atmos. CO2%c

hangeingloba

lsurfaceocean

-100

0

+100

+200

Affects calciumcarbonate saturationstate (): when < 1.0, unprotected

CaCO3dissolves

H+

(acidity)


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increase

increase

decrease

increase

H+

(acidity)

HCO3+

CO32 -

0 +100 +200 +300

% change in atmos. CO2%c

hangeingloba

lsurfaceocean

-100

0

+100

+200

Organisms (and ecosystem processes) may respond

to any one - or all - of these interacting variables

Affects calciumcarbonate saturationstate (): when < 1.0, unprotected

CaCO3dissolves

Other ocean

changes in a high CO2worldinclude higher temperatures & less oxygen


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Direct effects of

CO2and pH

Ind irect effects o n:

Community

processes

Food web &

biodiversity

changes

Coastalprotection

Climateprocesses

Ecosystems Ecosystem services

Animals,plan

ts&microbes

People(costs&valu

es)

CO2increase

Biogeo-

chemical

processes

Impacts on

organisms

(positive &

negative)

Impacts onchemistry

Overview of ocean acidification impacts #1


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Direct effects of

CO2and pH

Ind irect effects on :

Impacts on organisms Communityprocesses

Food web andbiodiversity changes

DMS, dimethylsulphide; DMSP, dimethylsulphoniopropionate; , CaCO3saturation state.

Williamson & Turley (2011), after Tyrrell

Photosynthesis

Respiration, energetics

and growth

C:N and C:P ratios

N2fixation and

nitrification

Sulphur metabolism

(affecting DMSP & DMS)

Decrease in abundance

of commercially-exploited

fish and shellfish

Changes in assemblage

or abundance of:

primary producers

secondary producers

decomposers

habitat-structuringorganisms

Decrease in food quality

Reduced biogenic CaCO3

production

Biogeochemicalprocesses

Change in dissolved

DMS

Reproduction,

behaviour and survival

Impacts on chemistryReduced , shoaling

of saturation horizon

Calcification

Reduced resilience toother environmentalpressures

Biodiversity loss due to

reductions in reef habitat

Increased CaCO3

dissolution

Coastal protectionIncreased erosion due to

reductions in reef habitat

Climate processes

Reduced strength of

biological carbon pump

Change in N2O and

DMS release affecting

climate forcing

Changes in dissolved

NOx and NH3

Ecosystems Ecosystem services

CO2increase


People(costs&valu

es)

Animals,plan

ts&microbes


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(original version of this diagram)



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Short

term

Long

termSingle species

Singlestressor

(OA)

Multi-

stressor

Local

Global

Days -

weeksYears PALAEO

Evolving framework for OA research

EXPERIMENTS

MODELSfor scenario

projections

Months

OBSERVATIONS

Multi-species

Ecosystem


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Short

term

Long

termSingle species

Singlestressor

(OA)Days -

weeks


EXPERIMENTS

Months


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Short

term

Long

termSingle species

Singlestressor

(OA)

Multi-

stressor


EXPERIMENTS

Other relevant variables

include temperature,oxygen & food/nutrients:


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Short

term

Long

termSingle species

Singlestressor

(OA)

Multi-

stressor


EXPERIMENTS

Multi-species

Ecosystem


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Short

term

Long

termSingle species

Singlestressor

(OA)

Multi-

stressor

Local

Global

Days -

weeksYears


EXPERIMENTS

Months

OBSERVATIONS

Multi-species

Ecosystem

real world


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l i f k f h


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Short

term

Long

termSingle species

Singlestressor

(OA)

Multi-

stressor

Local

Global

Days -

weeksYears PALAEO


EXPERIMENTS

MODELSfor scenario

projections

Months

OBSERVATIONS

Multi-species

Ecosystem


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pH

Time of day (hr)

April

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Photo:JasonHall-Spencer

Diurnal and seasonal pH variability

at Tatoosh Island WA, 2000-2007.

Wootton et al (2008)

Physico-chemical variability

In coastal waters and shelf seas, pH(and other carbon chemistry parameters)

can vary greatly on daily and seasonal basis


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pH

Time of day (hr)

April

May

June

July

Aug

Sep


Diurnal and seasonal pH variability

at Tatoosh Island WA, 2000-2007.

Wootton et al (2008)



can vary greatly on daily and seasonal basis also spatially

UKOA research cruise data 2011:

underway near-surface pH (Rerolle et al)

pH


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Blackford et al; Artioli et al (2012)

This variability can now be simulated in high resolution models

Daily pH range at seafloor

Present day : sea surface

pH





h h l b l


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Artioli et al (2012)

This variability can now be simulated in high resolution models,that can be used in climate change scenarios

Change in pH by 2100 (IPCC A1B)


DpHAragonite

saturation at sea

floor by 2100

(IPCC A1B

scenario)

Artioli et al

(2013)




l di l b l h h d b f


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Palaeo- studies: global OA has happened before

E.g. at Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

At PETM onset, ~35% of benthic

foraminifera became extinct

Note: i) rate of OA change was

then 10 times slower than now;

ii) recovery time was ~10,000 yr

Zeebe & Ridgwell, 2011

Projected

anthropogenicrelease: 5000 Gt C

Estimated PETMrelease: 3000 Gt C

Anthropogenic

PETM

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Years

Surfaceocean 6

4

2

0

25

20

15

10

5

0

ReleaseGtCperyr

Foster et

al 2013

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Species diversity30 50

PETM


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Not tested or too few studies

Enhanced


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Early life stages embryos, larvae and

juveniles are muchmore sensitive to OAthan adults

Echinoderm studies

(sea urchins, brittle

stars and starfish)

Intra-taxon variability in response to OA


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Additive impacts of temperature and high

CO2for cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa

34

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

9, 380 12, 380 9. 750 9, 1000 12, 750

Respiration

molO2g-1

tissuedryweighth-1

Control

1 stressor

2 stressors

Preliminary data: Hennige & Murray

Temp: 9C 12C 9C 9C 12C

CO2 380 380 750 1000 750 ppm

Multi-stressor studies show that interactions can beadditive/synergistic or antagonistic


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Additive impacts of temperature and high

CO2for cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa

35

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

9, 380 12, 380 9. 750 9, 1000 12, 750

Respiration

molO2g-1

tissuedryweighth-1

Control

1 stressor

2 stressors

Preliminary data: Hennige & Murray

Temp: 9C 12C 9C 9C 12C

CO2 380 380 750 1000 750 ppm

Multi-stressor studies show that interactions can beadditive/synergistic or antagonistic

But multi-factor experiments are complex(and food quality/quantity may be critical)

Multi species and ecosystem scale experiments
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560


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Multi-species and ecosystem-scale experiments

Mesocosms and Free

Ocean CO2Enrichment(FOCE) studies: ecologicallymore realistic, but high cost

for multi-factor replicates

Natural experiments at ecosystem scale
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=ZIYEiZXSHqDqfM&tbnid=i6Fm3DlH0rMHiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.imr.no/om_havforskningsinstituttet/arrangementer/workshops/acidification_in_aquatic_environments/en&ei=zXu-UYy7ApHI0gGgoYHgCg&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFhX2lH121el_oth1ipu_N9Xwuw6A&ust=1371524386529560


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High CO2vents (in the Mediterranean, USA, Japan, and Papua NewGuinea) show dramatic biodiversity loss and community shifts,favouring seagrasses and non-calcified algae


Natural experiments at ecosystem-scale

Impact of OA on ecosystem function


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Ecosystem services and

socio-economics:Loss of tropical coral reefs is likelyto be the greatest societal impactof ocean acidification, with costs

estimated at ~US $1,000 billionper year (Brander 2012)

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=3PTyct07pV1X4M&tbnid=rHw0w9iIMwVyMM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.hazard.lk/hazard/Report.aspx&ei=rIW-Ue7FDpHI4APRzYGwAQ&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFDzg3Nz6zsyQetlIvRTKiWMcvUUQ&ust=1371526838871304


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Ecosystem services and

socio-economics:Loss of tropical coral reefs is likelyto be the greatest societal impactof ocean acidification, with costs

estimated at ~US $1,000 billionper year (Brander 2012)

Costs of other OA impacts onfisheries, aquaculture, food web

structure and climate regulation are not yet well-defined


Observational requirements
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=3PTyct07pV1X4M&tbnid=rHw0w9iIMwVyMM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.hazard.lk/hazard/Report.aspx&ei=rIW-Ue7FDpHI4APRzYGwAQ&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFDzg3Nz6zsyQetlIvRTKiWMcvUUQ&ust=1371526838871304


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Observational requirements

Urgent need to develop global observing network for OA andecosystem response, linked to existing observing systems

UK work by Cefas,Marine Scotland,

NOC, PML and

university research

groups
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=8Rl7GcYuXbgQlM&tbnid=n1kkezdFTo3D6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NOAA-smartbuoy2.jpg&ei=TeK-Ue-2D8Xd4AP4vICYDQ&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFdLoRhPPPMPtwWYSnQ2BcZVFCr8Q&ust=1371550640962705http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&source=images&cd=&docid=YiBkZYBzzaBKlM&tbnid=fq0CrUlUugKOVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://blogs.nature.com/news/2008/02/success_for_wax_powered_robot.html&ei=3OS-Udr1LJSy4APd_4HIBA&bvm=bv.47883778,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFh5KtIgYPq8iNJSTBfqDwkavMxJQ&ust=1371551269826851


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Coastal Futures 2014 London: 23 January

Phil [email protected]

Main recent achievements Importance of multiple stressors Improved techniques Awareness of biological variability

Awareness of chemical variability Importance of scope for adaptation Insights from palaeo- studies Development of ecosystem-level studies

with acknowledgements to UKOA researchers, funders & others

Williamson 2014 Ocean Acidification Climate Change

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