William van der Veld (University of Amsterdam)Willem Saris (ESADE Business School)Barcelona, 2005, European Association for Survey Research

A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE SURVEY RESPONSE

Unifying Converse, Achen, Zaller and Feldman

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Overview

• The NES Panel 1956-1958-1960• Explanations for low response

stability• A unified model• Unifying Converse, Achen, Zaller &

Feldman• Summary & Conclusion

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The NES panel 1956-1958-1960• Start of a controversy.• Converse (1964):

Government Intervention in Housing & Electricity

1956 1958 1960

1956 1.00

1958 0.37 1.00

1960 0.37 0.37 1.00

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Explanations for low response stability

• Several explanations have been suggested.1964 Converse’s Black and White model1975 Achen’s measurement error model1992 Zaller & Feldman’s response axioms

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1964 Converse’s Black and White model• What could cause a low correlation?• The mass of the public have no stable

opinion,a small elite have a stable opinion.

No stable opinion=> Random responses => Zero (small) correlations

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1975 Achen’s measurement error model• What could cause a low correlation?• Measurement instruments are unreliable,

the responses will contain measurement error.

Even if the opinion is stable the responses across time could be different by chance.

Stable opinion & unreliable instruments=> Random errors & random responses => Zero (small) correlations

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1992 Zaller & Feldman’s response axioms• What could cause a low correlation?• People have multiple considerations in

mind, (that could be conflicting).

The context of the survey question triggers different considerations that generate different responses.

Unique context=> Unique considerations & unique responses => Zero (small) correlations.

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A unified model - Foundations• Semantic network, i.e. associations between

nodes.• Words in the question are associated with nodes.• Hearing/Reading triggers activation of

associations of nodes (spreading activation).• Deliberate or automatically evaluations are

made during the activation period.• The evaluations are combined into an opinion, • The verbalization of the opinion will introduce

errors in the response.

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A unified model - Animation

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A unified model – Conceptual model

Always present Evaluations

= stable opinion

Opinion

Response

Measurement error

New and remaining

Evaluations = new opinion

Unique Evaluations

= unique opinion

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A unified model – Structural Equations

• [standardized variables] =>St = st,t-1 * St-1 + Nt

Ot = ct * St + Ut

Rtm = qtm * Ot + etm

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A unified model – Path model N’

1 N’2 N’

3 s21 s32 S*

S* S*

c1 c2 c3 U’

1 U’2 U’

3 O*

1 O*2 O*

3 q11 q12 q23 q24 q35 q36 R*

11 R*12 R*

23 R*24 R*

35 R*36

e’

11 e’12 e’

23 e’24 e’

35 e’36

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Unifying Converse, Achen, Zaller & Feldman• Take the correlation between R11 and R23:

ρR11,R23 = q11 * c1 * s21 * c2 * q23

• Converse (1964)=> No stable opinion => [n=1] s=0 => ρR11,R23 = 0

• Achen (1975)=> Measurement error => [e=1] q=0 => ρR11,R23 = 0

• Zaller + Feldman (1992)=> Unique considerations => [u=1] c=0 => ρR11,R23 = 0

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Summary and conclusion

• Association of nodesSE Model with special parameters Applying the arguments of C, A, Z &F implies certain values for the parametersThis has the same consequence in our model: low correlations across time

• Is it possible to estimate the parameters of this model?

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Example• Russet Panel study• Design: Policies for national minorities• Measured in 3 interviews, 1 year interval.

Repeated measures in each interview.All (6) methods are different

Minority groups, who live here illegally, should not get access to medical and educational facilities.

1 2 3 4 5 Completely Rather Neither Rather Completely Disagree disagree agree nor agree agree disagree

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Example 0.17 0.17 0.91 0.91 S*

S* S*

0.50 0.51 0.52 0.75 0.74 0.73 O*

1 O*2 O*

3 0.81 0.97 0.88 1.00 0.77 0.91 R*

11 R*12 R*

23 R*24 R*

35 R*36

0.34 0.06 0.23 0.00 0.41 0.17