Will  5G  and  IoT  Create  a  New  

Monopoly?  CommsDay  Conference  

Sydney    4-­‐5th  April  2016    

   

Telco Subject Matter Expert

Presented  by  Professor  Reg  CouBs  

 

A question for us after Barcelona?

Urgency of 5G (he suggested marketing hype) 5G: DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE���CTN Issue: March 2016���Alan Gatherer, Editor in Chief, ComSoc Technology News

http://www.comsoc.org/ctn/5g-down-rabbit-hole

Summary !  Introduction!  Wireless Reflections

•  WiFi and WiMax ‘threat’

!  Urgency of 5G?•  Reflections on Barcelona

!  IoT and Telcos?•  LoRa alliance and Sig Fox

!  Mobile Sector and Regulation•  Fear of ‘interventions

!  Concerns

Introduction!  Telecommunications history - refresher

!  ‘natural monopoly’ of ‘fixed network’!  Telephone voice service the key service!  Initial competition in ‘long haul’ – the 70s!  Mobile network competition – the 80s

!  Fundamental Changes – the Internet & the 90s!  Fixed network core till about 2010 – future?!  Transition to ALL IP networks (end of circuit switching)!  OTT competitive providers !  Broadband broadband INCLUDES voice

Mobile Reflections!  Cellular Mobiles (Competition aspect!)

!  First phase – 1983•  United States & AMPS

•  Regional non wire-line competitors•  Country wide duopolies (not in Australia till 1992!)

!  Second phase – digital technology - 1991•  GSM – 1993 in Australia – tri-opoly•  3G and HSPDA

!  Third phase – broadband mobile•  4G (LTE evolution) – from 2010

!  What of 5G??

Competition to ‘mobile’ technology!  WiFi and 3G

!  Voice and data seen as separate!  WiMax and HSPDA (in 3G) – 1997

!  Voice and data STILL seen as separate!  Remember OPEL in 2007

!  NBN ‘fixed broadband’ – 2009!  Mobile and fixed broadband

•  Complementary AND substitution argument

!  LTE to be deployed in ‘unlicensed’ spectrum !  New networks for IoT (eg LoRa/SigFox?)

Internet of Things (IoT) and Telcos!  Mobile players and IoT

!  AT&T and Verizon in the US aggressive plans!  Telstra and Vodafone in Australia (planning!)

!  Alternative (‘private’) networks to mobile !  Silver Springs Networks

•  Founded in the US in 2002 – went public in 2013•  Expansion in Europe in 2014•  Wireless electricity meters in Vic Australia in 2015

!  SigFox LPWAN network•  Founded in France in 2009•  Aggressive expansion in the US in 2016•  Australia launch – today!

!  Taggle and NNNCo (LORA Alliance and LoRaWAN)

IoT Policy and Regulation in Australia!  Comms Alliance IoT ‘think tank’ – June 2015

!  ACMA !  WGs established

!  Spectrum and IoT!  Unlicensed spectrum

•  900MHz ISM band•  Other bands

!  GSM spectrum?

Reasons for 5G Hype?!  Features of 5G ‘vision’

!  More multiple bands for higher speed!  Low latency for IoT application

!  Technology Standards Evolution!  Enthusiastic support from their Suppliers

!  3Gpp standards development!  Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei!  Cisco, IBM more flexible?

Mobile Sector & Regulation!  Developed countries?

!  Inadequate ‘fixed infrastructure’!  Mobile innovation

•  Success of m-commerce in Kenya

!  Mexico, Sth Africa (see GSA report)•  Wholesale mobile with retail competition

!  Developing countries?!  Dominance increasing

•  AT&T and Verizon in the US•  Telstra in Australia

My Concerns amidst 5G Hype!  Increasing demands

!  Greater rural mobile coverage!  Mobile service substitution for fixed telephone!  More innovative solutions (eg aerostats, satellites)

!  Risks of market intervention!  Inclusion of mobile in the USO !  Expanded scope of NBN Co.!  Wholesale mobile with retail competition

!  How to recognise risks versus opportunities