A restaurant had 8 bags of flour. Each bag held 4 pounds of flour. How many
Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural...
Transcript of Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural...
![Page 1: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Will there be enough energy for all in the 21st Century?
Will there be enough energy for all in the 21st Century?
Rajan GuptaTheoretical Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
[email protected]://t8web.lanl.gov/people/rajan/
Rajan GuptaTheoretical Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
[email protected]://t8web.lanl.gov/people/rajan/
![Page 2: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
3 billion people live on less than $2 per day
6 hours per day of electricity to the poor (women) will change their lives and the world
Lighting up the darkness
![Page 3: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Special Thanks To
• Greg Swift• Woody Woodruff• Hans Ziock• Ning Li• Ben Luce• Phil Jones• Jean Challacombe
• Charryl Berger • Dana Christensen• Mike Fehler• George Guthrie• Fernando Garzon• Joe Gutierrez
![Page 4: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Energy = prosperity → need cheap clean energy
Human metabolism ~ 100 watt
![Page 5: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Global Distribution of Electricity & DevelopmentH
uman
Dev
elop
men
t Ind
ex(E
duca
tion,
life
exp
ecta
ncy,
GD
P p
er c
apita
, ...)
Source: Alan Pasternak, “Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis”
80% of populationbelow HDI=0.8
4000 kWh marks HDI ≥ 0.9
Data 1997
![Page 6: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Today, global consumption is 13 trillion watts of primary power
To sustain adequate standard of living for the 8 billion people
expected by 2025, and without improvements in efficiency, we need 2.5 times today’s energy.
![Page 7: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
OUTLINE• Modern society – relies on lots of cheap
energy • Where does our energy come from?• Emerging challenges in supply of oil and
natural gas• Rapidly changing world – Geopolitics• Environmental concerns with current use• No magic solutions. Need R&D• Challenge to US innovation• Make New Mexico and USA a leader
![Page 8: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
We take energy for granted
Think beyond your 2005 oil, natural gas, electricity, bills
![Page 9: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
3 gallonsoil
250 cubic feetnatural gas
One ounce uranium ore
20 poundscoal
Each day each
one of us uses
3½ poundsbiomass
Source: Greg Swift
![Page 10: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
There is an enormous global energy infrastructure ($10+ trillion) that is
mind-boggling • Oil contracts, rigs, exploration technology• Tankers and pipelines• Refineries • Auto industry• 600 million cars running on gasoline• Service stations and gasoline stations• Existing coal/gas electricity generation plants
This cannot be changed overnight!
![Page 11: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
How did we get to this point?
Major transformations in our primary energy
resources, use and related technology
![Page 12: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Biomass → Coal and Steam Engine
1750-1850
post 1950
Watt’s Steam Engine, patent 1769
![Page 13: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Oil and Internal Combustion Engine
Spindletop, 10 Jan 1901 Ford Model T touring (1 Oct 1908)
The real growth in use of fossil fuels (=prosperity) starts
![Page 14: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Electricity
![Page 15: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
OIL
COAL
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
![Page 16: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Consumption of fossil fuels per year(The holes we dig and must fill)• OIL: 85 million
barrels/day
• NATURAL GAS: 260 billion cubic feet/day
• Coal: 14 million tons/day
• OIL: 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.1 cubic miles per year
• As liquid: 1.3 × 1.3 × 1.3 cubic miles per year
• COAL: 1.0 × 1.0 × 1.0 cubic miles per year
3500 cubic miles of CO2 gas must be sequestered
![Page 17: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Fossil fuels and Environment
In the 20th century we started to act on pollution (mercury, NOx, SOx, acid rain, soot, ...) but not CO2 and
the associated global climate change
![Page 18: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It forms a blanket around the earth that causes warming
Intense storms
Melting of permafrost
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/vanishing/
Melting of glaciers in Greenland and around the world. Is it global warming?
Sequestration of CO2: First capture CO2 and then store it
![Page 19: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
150
200
250
300
350
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0← Age (years))
0
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
+2
+4
CO2 & global average temperature
Source: Petit et al., Nature 399 Vostok, Antarctica Ice Core data
Temperature C
hanges (ºC)
CO
2(p
pmV
)
Industrial age CO2increase
![Page 20: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
o C
Increasing evidence for temperature rise due to fossil-fuel burning
Possibility of catastrophic change: Shutdown of the thermohaline in 10s of years
![Page 21: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Climate change is the largest, costliest, most
dangerous, uncontrolled experiment ever done by
mankind
![Page 22: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What is in the future?
Where do we get our oil and natural gas from?
AndEmerging Challenges to
this supply?
![Page 23: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Oil is easy to move and trade
BP 2004
![Page 24: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
US oil consumption: Large (25% of global) & GrowingM
illio
n ba
rrel
s per
day
![Page 25: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
(EIA 11/05)
Friendly nations cannot fulfill our oil needs
Middle East: 2.5 M barrelsAfrica: 2.4 M barrelsFar East: 0.4 M barrelsRussia: 0.2 M barrels
Canada 2.3 M barrels Mexico: 1.8 M barrels Venezuela: 1.2 M barrelsNorth Sea: 0.9 M barrels
US imports 2/3 of its oil
![Page 26: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Proven oil reserves at end of 2004BP2005
R/P = 20 years
2004 Usage = 31Bbo/year ⇒ R/P = 40 years
![Page 27: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
China and India are making deals with Iran, Sudan, …
Oil Imports 1994-2004
USA +4% / year
Japan -1% / year
India +8% / year
China +31% / year
Increasing competition for oil and gas
![Page 28: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
BP 2004
$15$30
$60
45?
90+?
Saturated Market: Increased volatility and high prices post 2004
![Page 29: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Natural Gas
USA produces 85% of its natural gas. The rest is imported from
Canada and Trinidad
![Page 30: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Major natural gas trade movements
BP 2004
![Page 31: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Proven natural gas reserves at end 2004BP2005
North America uses about 0.8 trillion cubic meters a year
![Page 32: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Natural gas: Oversubscribed → producers can
charge more → price increases
Hub Cost
![Page 33: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
>90% of global coal reserves are in 10 countries
Source: International Energy Outlook 2004
* Cheap * US has largest reserves * Pollution
COAL
USA also has the largest deposits
of oil shale
![Page 34: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Using coal/shale → pollution and CO2
1900-2000
>2006Coal Oil
Gas
France
![Page 35: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Problems with business as usual
• We import 2/3 of oil used• Share of imported natural gas set to
increase rapidly• Market saturated, volatile, unstable• CO2 emissions → global warming
![Page 36: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
OIL1,2,34,5
GAS2,3,4,5,10
Persian Gulf
No Coal
Ranking of reserves: 2005
USA 12,6,1 China 11,-,3 EU -, -, 4
Russia 8,1,2 India -, -, 5 AT -, -, -
![Page 37: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
OIL1,2,34,5
GAS2,3,4,
5,9
Persian Gulf
No Coal
Fast forward to 2020
AT -, -, -
USA -,-,1 China -,-,3 EU -, -, 4
Russia -,1,2 India -, -, 5
![Page 38: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The natural destination for Persian gulf, Caspian Sea and Russian oil and gas is
EUROPE and ASIA
But the US needs them too!
What role will pipeline, tanker, refining capacity play?
![Page 39: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Who owns the pipe lines?
![Page 40: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Which countries will get Russian natural gas in 10 years time?
New pipeline from Russia to Germany bypasses Ukraine and Eastern Europe
![Page 41: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Middle East and Russia control conventional
natural gas and oil
![Page 42: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The global oil and gas situation has been
anticipated by the US and has guided its
policies since WWII
![Page 43: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Oil: key driver of foreign policy• 1945
– F. Roosevelt and King Abdel Aziz “oil for security”• 1947: Truman Doctrine
– Stop the spread of communism (Greece, Turkey, Iran)• 1957: Eisenhower Doctrine
– Protect friendly interests• 1969: Nixon
– Protect interests through surrogate friendly rulers• 1980: Carter Doctrine
– To protect Saudi Arabia and the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf
• 1983: Establishment of Central Command– Protecting the free flow of oil from the Middle East
and Central Asia
![Page 44: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
US bases in the Middle East
Can we continue to bank on this solution?
A very successful but costly military investment to protect the flow of oil (=prosperity)
![Page 45: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Examining energy futures from three perspectives
• National and International Security • Cost, Economics and Development• Environment
Be more efficient Sequester CO2Develop alternatives to fossil fuels
![Page 46: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
What are the fixes to USA’s “addiction to oil”?
• Continue under business as usual?– Use our military to guarantee supplies?– Develop coal and shale to get oil and gas?
• Innovate (R&D): Sequester CO2; develop alternate sources to reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?
• Be more efficient → use less + preserve reserves for future use in petrochemicals?
![Page 47: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Use Coal (Shale)Based on 2001 production figures, global
coal reserves will last about
• 207 years for hard coal• 198 years for soft brown coal• USA has the largest reserves
Coal is abundant but
![Page 48: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
The hidden and ignored environmental cost of CO2 emissions
Oil
810
Comparison of life-cycle CO2 emissions from different electricity generation options. Emissions from oil are roughly in between coal and natural gas. (Source: “Life-Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Systems and Applications for Climate Change Policy Analysis,” Paul J. Meier, University of Wisconsin-Madison, August, 2002.)
![Page 49: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
To use coal the US must lead the world by innovating clean coal technology for
generating electricity and producing oil
FutureGen (No emissions) But 10+ years away
−C
O2
− pollution
R&D
Navajo Power Plant
![Page 50: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Even if we get all the fossil fuel we want we still need to solve pollution and CO2
problems. Need action starting today
• Need large-scale sequestration of CO2 by 2020
• Need alternatives to fossil oil, coal, natural gas as energy source/carrier/storage
![Page 51: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Can we reduce use of fossil fuels without stalling
economic development?
![Page 52: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Short term Option: Behavior ChangeEU
Canada
US
Japan
Australia
China California
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MP
G -
Con
verte
d to
CA
FE T
est C
ycle
CAFÉ Standards
An and Sauer, Pew Report, Dec 2004
• Lighting• Appliances• Heating• Insulation• Transport
Drive less and Drive efficient cars (hybrid)
![Page 53: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Power generationNEED for timely action:
• Power systems need 10-15 years toplan and build
• They have lifetimes of 40-70 years.
• Planning and construction must begindecades before actual shortages/crises.
![Page 54: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Will coal and natural gas continue to dominate power generation?
Starting in 1980sCoal was dirtyGas was cheapHydro was flatNuclear was bad
![Page 55: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Coal is still dirty
For natural gas we will be dependent on Russia and/or the Middle East
![Page 56: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
We need all options: Each has a niche market
• Clean coal and gas • Nuclear• Hydro• Wind• Solar and Biomass
What does the market say?
![Page 57: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
IGCC Gas SC PV Coal Wind * Hydro Nuclear *
CO
E (c
ents
/kW
h)
Capital O&M Fuel
Cost for New Build
6.26.8 6.6 6.4
6.0
5.3
* Includes U.S. Production Tax Credits
![Page 58: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Operating Cost for Existing Plants
0123456789
1011
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Cent
s/kW
h
OilGas
CoalNuclear
![Page 59: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Nuclear power“CO2 clean”
• Principles of nuclear fission are known• Natural 235U is a limited resource• Generation IV reactors• Breeder reactors?
232Th → 233U 238U → 239Pu
• Accidents• Proliferation HEU, 239Pu• Waste management
Not in my backyard
![Page 60: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
WORLD POWER REACTORS[Source: INSC - Argonne]
To replace 10 Terawatts by nuclear power would require 10,000 one GW plants – 1 new plant a day for 30 years.
Don’t have enough nuclear scientists or engineers
![Page 61: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Renewables
![Page 62: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Hydroelectric Dams
• Electricity generation• Water management
NO significant growth
• Silting• Ecological impact• Large versus
small dams• Impact of climate
change
![Page 63: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
USA is rich in bio materials, wind,
solar, geothermal
![Page 64: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Bio-fuels: R&D to cut time & costArable landWaterEnergy neutral
Food Crops (corn, sugarcane, ...) → ethanol
Vegetable oils (soybean, …) → bio-diesel
Cellulose (wood waste, switchgrass, ...) →digesters (enzymes, microbes) → ethanol Replacing 18th
century uses by 21st
Animal (cows, pigs) dung → methane
Waste (animal, industrial) → thermal → oil
Need to beat cost & efficiency of photovoltaic
Algae → oil → bio-diesel
Microbes → oil → bio-diesel
![Page 65: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mill
ion
litre
s BrazilUS + CanEUWorld
Percent of 2003 Motor Gasoline Use:World: 2.8%
US/Canada: 2.3%
2006 IogenPresentation
food crops → Ethanol
Energy input in corn to ethanol production ≈ stored. →Ethanol: a way to convert coal and gas into liquid fuel!
![Page 66: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Incident kWh/meter2/day in June
Solar: We have sun & land
Lots of solar but very dilute and only during the day
![Page 68: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Solar PV options reaching 15% efficiency
Laminate
Thin films
Tiles /Shingles
Polycrystalline PV
Average output: 30-45 watts / meter2
Technology is here & improving. Costs coming down from $10/watt to $1/watt
![Page 69: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Payback of PV: homes & buildings
My gas bill was $1800 in 2004
and $2300 in 05.
Installing a 2 kilowatt PV system costs
$20000
⇒Building a house today I would use PV. Incentives = 3 kW system for same $$
![Page 70: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Wind potentialSpeeds at 80 m height
2005
Good offshore wind potential near high population density areas in the US
![Page 71: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
International wind & PV growth
Source: Ben Luce1980 1990 2000
Wind
Solar photovoltaic
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
GigawattsGigawattsinstalled capacity(global)
(Ben Luce, LANL)
Wind & PV show ~30% growth over 1995-2005
![Page 72: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
WIND
Will GE make USA a major player in wind and PV systems?
![Page 73: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Missing an Economic Opportunity• Clean Energy• Electric power grids • Fuel for Transportation• Efficient machines/appliancesare increasingly value-added products.
40 Terawatts of global power demand translates into a $48 billion/day
market at $0.05 kW hour
![Page 74: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
The World has changed since 1970s• Most major oil fields outside of the Middle
East are in decline. Estimate of Reserves???• Most of the world mapped for oil and gas – no
major new oil discoveries since 1980• Many more countries (China, India, …)
competing for oil and gas • Fossil fuels → CO2 → global climate change• Nuclear remains “not in my backyard”• Solar, wind, biofuels, fuel cells moving from
“green” novelties to large scale deployment• Revolution in many relevant technologies
![Page 75: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Business as usual→ Challenges we face• We are increasingly dependent on Russia and
Middle East for oil and natural gas • Once the global production reaches “peak”
(or demand > supply) prices will stay high• Competition for oil and natural gas will
continue to increase• Unconventional oil and natural gas means
more cost, environmental impact, emissions• Use of fossil fuels without CO2 sequestration
will lead to global climate change• Poor most vulnerable to Climate change
High cost of energy
![Page 76: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Energy Security is
National Securityand
Economic securityand
Environmental Security= Future of our children
Senator Lugar: “energy is the albatross of U.S. national security”Brookings: 13 March 2006
![Page 77: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Make New Mexico a Leader• Exploit our solar and wind potential• Intelligent power grids• Bring together science at Labs with utility companies for
large scale pilot projects for carbon sequestration• Empowering incentives, credits, regulations• Educate public on new opportunities, efficiencies
![Page 78: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Educate the public on efficiency as a win-win option
• Buy fuel efficient cars• Carpool and Combine shopping trips • Promote public transport• Efficiency in appliances and buildings• Empower developers and builders to design
and build green (mandatory codes)• Convert parking lots and roofs to solar
farms (ABQ: 5 square km → 200 MW daytime)• Integrate wind farms (Santa Fe, ABQ, Las
Cruces have good wind potential nearby)
![Page 79: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Leverage the National Labs
Fund world class departments at NM Universities in
Energy and Water researchNuclear Engineering and Science
![Page 80: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
New Mexico’s Clean Energy Policy Foundation. A promising start
• 1998: Net-Metering Rule• 2002: Production Tax Credits for Large Scale Renewable Energy• 2004: Renewable Energy Standard (10% by 2011)• 2005: Energy Efficiency Act• 2005: Clean Energy Revenue Bonds• 2005: Photovoltaic Credits Buy Back Program • 2006: Solar Tax Credits• 2006: Executive Order for 50% more efficient buildings• 2006: Memorials for:
– Renewable Fuel Standard– Examination of Electric Co-op consumer issues – Examination of Mercury Pollution Issues
![Page 81: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
G.W. Bush Words → Consensus → ActionPresident G. W. Bush, SoU address 2006
“Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy.”
“... we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil”
“To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coal-fired plants, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean, safe nuclear energy.”
“change how we power our automobiles. Increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars ... pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen.”
“Breakthroughs ... to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.”
“By applying the talent and technology of America ... dramatically improve our environment ... move beyond petroleum-based economy ... make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past.”
![Page 82: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Industrialized nations must lead the R&D for cheap & clean energy
(= hope) for all mankind
![Page 83: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Hope for the future!Wind and solar are the most abundant sources of energy in poor countries lying within the tropics. Having exhausted oil and gas, we owe them clean, copious and cheap energy.
![Page 84: Will there be enough energy for all in the 21 …rajan/energy_FoS_06.pdfoil 250 cubic feet natural gas One ounce uranium ore 20 pounds coal Each day each one of us uses 3½ pounds](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042305/5ed08c4e41ebd91fee4561e0/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Further reading and Sources• http://www.eia.doe.gov/• http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/wep/wepindex_a.htm• http://www.iea.org/• http://www.nrel.gov/• http://energytrends.pnl.gov/• http://www.energycrisis.org/• http://www.bp.com/• http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=researchreports• “Hubbert’s Peak” & “Beyond Oil”, Kenneth Deffeyes• “Out of Gas”, David Goodstein, 2004• “The End of Oil”, Paul Roberts, 2004• “Blood and Oil”, Michael T. Klare, 2004• “Twilight in the Desert” Matthew Simmons, 2005• Senator Lugar http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20060313.pdf