Will electric cars rule the future?

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Will electric car rule the future? Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan July 2014

Transcript of Will electric cars rule the future?

Page 1: Will electric cars rule the future?

Will electric car rule the future?

Nicolas Meilhan

Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan

July 2014

Page 2: Will electric cars rule the future?

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3 major challenges we have to take into consideration to develop a

sustainable car : climatic changes, end of fossil fuels and air

pollution

Performance

• Efficiency

• Acceleration

• Top speed

• CO2 emissions

• Air pollution

Climatic changes

•CO2 emission at highest level

in the last 800,000 years

•More than 2° expected by 2100

with drastic consequences if

nothing is done

End of fossil resources

•97% of road transportation

use fossil fuels

•Oil, which is the main driver

of our economy, might have

disappeared by the end of

the century

Air pollution

•With the rural exodus and

development of mega cities,

air pollution has reached

unprecedented levels

•Serious health diseases to

multiply drastically

Challe

nges

Constr

ain

s

Sustainable car KSF = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Costs

• Total cost of ownership

• Retail

• Recharging

• Maintenance

Autonomy

• Distance without charging

• Time to recharge

• Storage weight

Infrastructure

• Investment required to update existing infrastructure and/or build a new one

• Standards across all countries

Perform

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n

c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

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The reason why electric vehicles never met the gap until now is that fossil

fuels have the best energy density, both in mass and volume, than any other

energy vector

Source : Pierre-René BAUQUIS

Energy density of energy vectors used in transport

Fossil fuels have a mass density 100 times as high as batteries

1kg of fossil fuel contain as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries

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If anthropogenic contribution to climate change is still being

debated, global warming is happening with up to 5°C increase by

2100 in the worst case scenarios with drastic consequences

Sources: Global change.gov

800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration

Perform

a

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c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

•The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher than at any time in

measurable history

• It is predicted to reach from 550 to 900 ppm by 2100 – 85% to 200% increase compare to

highest concentration observed in the last 800,000 years

Projected temperature up to 2100

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Knowing whether we’ll still have fossil fuel in 2100 is not key – the

critical issue is how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our

economy and our cars Perform

a

n

c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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s

o

u

r

c

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s

Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

Extr

actio

n in

bill

ion

s o

f o

il b

arr

els

pe

r ye

ar

Liquid fuels extraction - 1700 to 2100 -

Source: Manicore , Jean-Marc Jancovici

« It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap» Jean-Marie Bourdaire

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0

20

40

60

80

100

60 70 80 90 100 110

Air pollution is one of the key driver for city to adopt EV cars,

especially in China. Diesel emissions (particles & NOx) are

particularly unhealthy although CO2 emissions are lower

Particles (PM) emissions in Paris

9th of juin 2004, 10h, atmo index « Mauvais 7 »

14th of June 2004, 10h, atmo index « Bon 3 »

Perform

a

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c

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

e

s

o

u

r

c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

PM10 = 20 µg/m3

PM10 = 80 µg/m3

NOx & CO2 emissions by engine technology

Diesel

Gasoline

NO

x e

mis

sio

ns

CO2 emissions

Diesel 2005

Downsized Diesel

+DPF

DPF + NOx trap

HCCI+DPF

DPF+SCR D Hybrid

SI Hybrid

PFI 2005

PFI adv + VVT

DISI CAI

DISI NOx

trap

DISI turbo

19,000 people killed every year in Europe

because of particles from diesel cars

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Extended-Range EVs offer the best trade-off between petroleum

consumption and Well-to-Wheel Emission

Fuel Consumption and Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future (2035 Cars)

Source: More Sustainable transportation: The Role of Energy Efficient Vehicle Technologies, Sloan Automotive Laboratory (MIT), April 2008

Perform

a

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

Extended-Range 30 miles

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Country electricity mix can have a huge impact on CO2

emissions of electric vehicles

Well to wheel emissions of a battery vehicle

•Carbon capture and storage is key to reduce transportation emissions in the long term as most of electricity in the USA (40%),Germany (45%) and China (80%) is produced with coal

•Nuclear and renewable energies (including hydro) are the best alternatives to produce CO2 free electricity

Emissions intensity

gCO2/kWh g/km

Wind 5.5 0.9

Nuclear 15 2.4

Hydro 18 2.9

Nuclear 60 9.6

Natural Gas - CC 461 74

Natural Gas 653 104

Coal 1075 172

CO2 emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh)

% of CO2

free

electricity

Emission

intensity

(gCO2 / kWh)

Well to wheel

emissions of electric

vehicle* (g/km)

France 90% 75 20

Canada 59% 267 43

California 44% 470 75

US 31% 710 114

China 20% 950 160

Source: Rouler sans pétrole, Pierre Langlois, 2008

* Equivalent to an intermediary ICE car = 9l/100 km => 244g/km

Perform

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

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Extended-Range EVs are the only alternative technology able to

compete today at a global scale with the ICE on autonomy and

infrastructure investment required

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011

Autonomy Infrastructure

investment High Low

Distance Time to recharge Storage weight

Internal Combustion

Engine

600 km 5 min Already existing 45 kg

Extended-Range EV

600 km (20 to 60

km electric)

Already existing 2-3 hours 50 to 90 kg

Electric vehicle

60 to 250 km

electric

To be developed 4-8 hours 90 to 250 kg

Fuel Cell Vehicle

600 km To be developed 5 min 90 to 100 kg

Performance

Perform

a

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Climatic changes

End of fossil

r

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s

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u

r

c

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Air pollution

Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE

Autonomy Infrastructure Cost

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Extended-Range EV is expected to be competitive with the ICE by

2015 with a payback period of les than 4 years for an oil price at

2,5 €/L without any state subsidy

Total cost of ownership of an ICE compared with a Extended-Range EV

* Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis MIT, 2009

** 80% of French drivers average trip per day is less than 50 km every day

Payback period sensitivity to oil price and state subsidy

TCO of a C-segment car ICE Extended-Range EV with 50 km

electric autonomy

Retail price (€) 14800 € (20000$) + 7400 € (+10000 $*)

Electric autonomy 0 km 50 km

Energy consumption 7 l/100km 1.4 l/100km ** & 15 kWh/100km

Annual energy consumption (14000 km) 980 l 196 l & 1,68 MWh

Annual TCO(1,75€/l & 100 €/MWh) 1715 € 343 € + 168 € = 511 €

Annual TCO(2 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 1960 € 392 € + 168 € = 560 €

Annual TCO(2,5 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 2450 € 490 € + 168 € = 658 €

Oil price 1,75 € 2 € 2.5 €

Incremental annual TCO of ICE 1204 € 1400 € 1882 €

Payback period without subsidy 6.1 years 5.3 years 3.9 years

Payback period with a €2,000 subsidy 4,5 years 3,9 years 2.9 years

Payback period with a €4,000 subsidy 2.8 years 2,4 year 1.8 years

Épuisement des énergies fossiles

Performance

Changements climatiques

Pollution atmosphérique

Autonomie Infrastructures Coûts

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5Well to Wheel Emissions

Autonomy

Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency

Cost0

5Well to Wheel Emissions

Autonomy

Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency

Cost

Internal Combustion Engine

Electric Vehicle

Extended-Range EV

Fuel Cell Vehicle

Extended-Range EV represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a

global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030

0

5Well to Wheel Emissions

Autonomy

Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency

Cost

0

5Well to Wheel Emissions

Autonomy

Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency

Cost

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011

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The market potential for electrified vehicles mostly depend on 2 factors: 1. Battery prices reduction from $600/kWh

2. Gas prices increase from $3.5 per gallon

Electrified vehicles projected competitiveness with internal-combustion-engine vehicles - Total cost of ownership (US example)1 -

1 Assumes 15 kWh/km (as may be achieved

with lightweight, efficient air-conditioning) Source: Mc Kinsey, 2011

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Electrification of vehicles will take place progressively starting with

Extended-Range EV whose electric autonomy increases when battery prices

decrease - up to the day when all vehicles will run electrically

• ICE will still be around for a while representing the majority of vehicle sales for another 15 years

• Hydrogen is very unlikely to be used in a car before 2025 - only an energy vector for gas or nuclear, no significant advantage over an PHEV and some investments required to set up a distribution infrastructure

• EV, which neither emits CO2 nor pollutants, still face too many challenges – cost, autonomy, infrastructure, norm standards – to have a chance to replace at a global scale the ICE before 2040.

• There is however a potential for EV and FC in local niche applications like company fleets, car sharing or bus/tramway

• Extended-range EV has both the ICE advantages – autonomy, infrastructure required, affordable cost - and the EV ones – Energy efficiency, Well to Wheel emissions without sharing their drawbacks

Annual light-duty sales by technology type Annual global EV and PHEV sales

Source: EIA 2011

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The higher the gas price, the more electrified cars are sold! Best way to promote electrified vehicles is to increase gas prices – either artificially through a

carbon tax or by selling more cars to China!

Month-over-month changes in gas price and electric vehicles sales - January 2011 to May 2014, USA -

Source: Energy Policy Information Center