Wildfire Emissions in the Canadian GEM-MACH Air Quality Forecast System
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Wildfire Emissions in the Canadian GEM-MACH
Air Quality Forecast System
2011 International Workshop for Air Quality Forecast Research Washington DC
Environment Canada Jack Chen, Radenko Pavlovic, Al Pankratz, Sylvie Gravel
Canadian Forest Service/Natural Resources Canada Kerry Anderson
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Objective
• Air quality forecast with impact of wildfire emissions
▪ input for the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI)▪ smoke dispersion information▪ visibility information
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GEM-MACH System
• Meteorological & chemical models
– GEM-MACH runs twice daily (00z, 12z), resolution 15 km
– GEM-MACH emissions processed via SMOKE▪ Area sources▪ Mobile sources▪ Point sources
– Biogenics calculated online (BEIS3)
• Canadian wildfires ~1.3 million hectares/yr (2000-2010)
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4Edmonton without smoke
Grant MacEwan University
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5Edmonton, August 19, 2010, 11:35 AM
(Hourly PM2.5 ~80 μg/m3)
Grant MacEwan University
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6Edmonton, August 19, 2010, 2:01 PM
(Hourly PM2.5 ~250 μg/m3)
Grant MacEwan University ??
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Fire Information
• BlueSky (US Forest Service)
• CWFIS (Canadian Wildland Fire Information System)– runs daily during fire season;– Includes:
▪ landuse databases;▪ Hotspot detection;▪ FBP (Fire Behavior Prediction);▪ Fuel consumption / fire type
GEM-MACH domain
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• Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (cont’d)
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Approach
• FireWork framework
BLUESKY
Weather model output
Fire Information
Fuel loading
Consumption
Emissions(SMOKE)
GEM-MACH
CWFIS
Fuel loading
Consumption
US hotspot Canadian hotspot
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Current Limitations
• sensitivity to hotspot algorithms – Active burning emissions vs. smoldering emissions– Remote sensing is limited by cloud cover
• no fire spread/growth
• no active fire suppression
• fire size is empirically estimated
• operational considerations: reliability and timeliness of remote sensing data
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Proof-of-concept test
• Wildfire event in Central British Columbia (Cariboo Region)• Two week simulation: August 10 – 24 2010
• No changes to GEM-MACH model science• Fire emissions modelled as major point sources
– Brigg’s plume rise algorithm within GEM-MACH– Constant and uniform stack parameters
• PM2.5 results compared with operational forecast predictions
• Challenging event to model due to complex topography across the Rockies and Pacific Cordillera
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Fire Emissions
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Fire Emissions. Aug 10-24
BC+AB FireBC+AB
Anthropogenic
CO 654,122 126,541
VOC 155,514 33,415
PM10 70,337 41,552
PM2.5 59,608 9,032
Episode Emissions (tons)
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Aug. 10-24 average surface PM2.5 difference (fire minus no-fire)
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15Average hourly PM2.5 for 40 stations in BC
Average hourly PM2.5 for 25 stations in AB
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Obs. PM2.5 Avg.Operational Forecast
PM2.5 Avg.(NMB)
+ Fire Emissions PM2.5 Avg.
(NMB)N
59 μg/m35 μg/m3
(-11%)22 μg/m3
(-8%) 8
Aug 10-24 Stations Avg. PM2.5 > 45 ug/m3
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Obs. Avg.Operational Forecast
PM2.5 Avg.(NMB)
+ Fire Emissions PM2.5 Avg.
(NMB)N
7 μg/m37 μg/m3
(-0.3%)9 μg/m3
(+0.5%) 29
Aug 10-24 Stations Avg. PM2.5 < 10 ug/m3
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Conclusions & Future Work
• the goal of this project is to enhance the capacity of Environment Canada’s GEM-MACH operational air quality forecasting system to include wildfire emissions
• preliminary results show that fires producing large amount of emissions can significantly impact PM2.5 forecast results
• Initial examination: GEM-MACH captured general PM2.5 trends but
underestimated magnitudes, especially for receptors further downwind
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Future Work
• Improve Canada hotspot detection – consolidate pixels into fire events
• Update GEM-MACH science parameterizations– inline plume rise algorithm
– inline fire emission adjustment by weather▪ e.g. emissions in concert with rain, snow or humidity changes
– PM2.5 tracer to isolate fire plume from anthropogenic sources
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Acknowledgement
• BC Ministry of Environment – Steve Sakiyama• US Forest Service – Tara Strand• Sonoma Technology, Inc. – Kenneth Craig• Washington State University – Joe Vaughan• Environment Canada – GEM-MACH development team
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Thank you