wiiw Spring Seminar 2019: East-West migration trends in Europe: Running … · Wiener Institut für...
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Wiener Institut für
Internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for
International Economic
Studies
wiiw.ac.at
Isilda Mara
East-West migration trends in Europe:
Running out of steam
wiiw Spring Seminar
4 April 2019
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Part I
Migration and demography
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Africa
Positive
population
growth
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
RU, MD, UA
1995
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
WB6
1995
Source: UN Statistics, 2017.
Total and working-age population growth, 1955-2015, %
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
EU-CEE11
1995
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
EU15
Negative
working-age
population
growth starting
in 2015
Strong decline in total and working-age population growth
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
19
55
19
65
19
75
19
85
19
95
20
05
20
15
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
19
55
19
65
19
75
19
85
19
95
20
05
20
15
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
19
55
19
65
19
75
19
85
19
95
20
05
20
15
EU15 EU-CEE11 WB6 EAP Africa
Total population change Working age population 15-64 change
negative
population
growth
starting with
2015positive
population
growth
19951995
1995
Working-age population 15-64 change Total population change
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Eurostat.
Average population change by individual countries, cumulative in %, 2011-2017
Winning and losing countries in demographic terms due to emigration
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
LT
LV
BG
HR
RO
HU
EE
PL SI
SK
CZ
RS
AL
BA
XK
ME
MK
MD
BY
RU
UA
GR
PT
ES IT FI
FR
NL
DE
BE
DK
GB
AT IE SE
TR
EU-CEE11 WB6 CIS3+UA EU15 NR
Crude rate of natural change Crude rate of net migration Crude rate of total changeNatural change Net migration Total population change
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
EU-CEE11 WB6 EU15
Male Female Male Female Male Female
-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
-5000 -2500 0 2500 5000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
-1000 -500 0 500 1000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100
Significant change in age structure
Source: UN Statistics in thousands, 2017.
1990 2018Male Female Male Female Male Female
-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
-5000 -2500 0 2500 5000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
-1000 -500 0 500 1000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Eurostat.
Age structure,
EU-15,
natives vs
migrants,
2018, in %
In EU-15 migrants tend to be younger than natives and fall mainly
in working-age group
-13% -8% -3% 3% 8% 13%
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
Intra_EU28
Natives EU15
Extra_EU28
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Eurostat, UN Statistics.
Migration in numbers
9
3.8
Main residing regions
Emigrants from EU-CEE11: 12.8 million in 2017
EU15 Other
Top five
sending countries:
PL, RO, CZ, BG, HU
Top five EU15
receiving countries :
DE, UK, IT, ES, AT
4.2 million (EU enlargement)
2.2 million (Financial crisis)
2,111,912
638,600
622,396
886,309
177,543
Main residing regions
Emigrants from WB: 4.4 million in 2017
EU15 CEE WB6 Other Turkey
2.2 million
(1990-2017)
Top sending
countries: AL, BA, RS
Top five EU15 receiving
countries:
IT, EL, DE, AT, FR
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Eurostat.
Net migration from EU-CEE11, 2008-2017
Since 2008 between 150 and 250 thousand migrants
left EU-CEE11 every year
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RO
PL
HR
LT
BG
LV
SI
CZ
EE
SK
HU
EU-CEE11
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Eurostat.
Positive net migration to some of EU-CEE11 countries in 2017
-160,000
-60,000
40,000
140,000
240,000
340,000
440,000
DE GB IT ES SE NL FR AT BE FI IE DK GR PT
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
HU CZ EE SK SI BG LV PL LT HR RO
Intra-EU28 Extra-EU28 Natives Total
Ukrainians
and Asians
Net migration by nationals, EU28 and extra-EU28 migrants
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Part II
Migration and labour market implications
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Eurostat.
Beveridge curve, 4Q 2006 - 4Q 2018 (four-quarter average rates)
Strong drop in unemployment rate combined
with rise in vacancy rates in EU-CEE11
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jo
b v
acan
cy r
ate
(%
)
Unemployment rate (%)
4Q 2006
4Q 2010
4Q 2014
4Q 2018
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: Manpowergroup, ‘2018 Talent Shortage Survey’.
Main difficulties faced by employers to find workers, 2018
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SE
IT
CH
AT
UK
DE
FR
SI
HU
BG
CZ
RO
PL
SI
EU
CE
E
Lack of applicants
Lack of experience
Applicants lack required hard skills
Applicants lack required soft skills
Other
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: wiiw database, Jobs Gateway (2018).
Closing of wage gap weakens
the pull factor to emigrate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
Average gross monthly wage ratio, EU-CEE11 to EU15, %
Drop in unemployment weakens
the push factor to emigrate
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Unemployment rate in %, 2006-2018
EU-CEE11 EU15
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: wiiw database, Jobs Gateway, wiiw Handbook of Statistics.
Push and pull drivers of emigration remain strong in WB6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Unemployment rate in %, WB6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Average gross monthly wage ratio, %
WB5 to EU15 WB5 to EU-CEE11
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Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Source: World Gallup (2018), Potential Net Migration Index. ‘Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to
another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?’
Intentions to emigrate remain high especially from WB6 Potential Net Emigration Index, 2017
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
EU-CEE running out of steam
- Outward migration will slow down due to:
• strong drop in working-age population
• rise in wages
• drop in unemployment
- Labour shortages in EU-CEE and EU15 are
likely to be tackled via extra-EU rather than
intra-EU mobility
- Rise in birth rate is an option, but in the
long run
Summary: Running out of steam
Potential migration from WB6 remains high
- Similar to EU-CEE11, WB6 has lost and will continue to
lose the youngest and its best people
- Drop in total and working-age population and continued
emigration puts at risk:
• demographic structure
• human capital
• economic prospects of the sending countries
- Reducing migration pressure from WB6:
• involvement of diaspora
• allocation of remittances into investment
should be encouraged
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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019
Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?
Country codes
AL Albania KZ Kazakhstan RS Serbia
BY Belarus LT Lithuania RU Russia
BA Bosnia and Herzegovina LV Latvia SI Slovenia
BG Bulgaria MD Moldova SK Slovakia
CZ Czech Republic ME Montenegro TR Turkey
EE Estonia MK North Macedonia UA Ukraine
HR Croatia PL Poland XK Kosovo
HU Hungary RO Romania
CESEE23 Central, East and Southeast Europe
CIS4+UA Commonwealth of Independent States-4 and Ukraine
EA19 Euro area
EU-CEE11 European Union – Central and Eastern Europe
WB6 Western Balkans
Thank you for your attention!
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