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Michael H. Fox, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor

Colorado State University Dept of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences

ERHS 550 May 5, 2017

Whyweneednuclearpower.com

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Baseload electricity needed ◦ Renewable energy does not provide this

Reduce carbon dioxide emissions ◦ Problem of global warming from CO2

Reduce dependence on coal ◦ Major source of CO2 causing global warming ◦ Environmental problems with mining ◦ Deaths from accidents and air pollution

Concerns about natural gas and fracking Nuclear power can safely wean us off of coal

and reduce dependence on natural gas

IPCC 2007 Fig. TS-1. Gas trapped in Antarctic ice sheets analyzed from ice cores. Shaded areas are interglacial periods.

Deuterium is a proxy for temperature 6⁰ C

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Data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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om

ali

es (°C

) C

om

pare

d t

o 1

901-2

000 a

vera

ge

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Black line is 5 yr moving average

Global temp affected by:

◦ El Niños

◦ Volcano eruptions

Recent “hiatus” caused by: ◦ Low solar activity

◦ Warming of deep ocean

◦ Aerosols from coal

◦ High volcanic activity

◦ Long period of La

Niñas

y = 0.0166x + 0.164

R² = 0.8187

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ospheri

c C

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pm

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Mt. Pinatubo

El Chichon

Strong El Niños

Data from NOAA and Mauna Loa

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Energy-related CO2 emissions (2014) ◦ US: 5.5 Gt ◦ China: 9.4 Gt ◦ World: 33.7 Gt

Coal CO2 emissions (2014) ◦ US: 1.5Gt ◦ China: 7.5 Gt ◦ India: 1.3 Gt ◦ World: 14.5 Gt

Natural Gas CO2 (2014) ◦ US: 1.45 Gt ◦ Russia: 0.9 Gt ◦ World: 7.0 Gt

75% of world’s CO2 comes from burning fossil fuels 40% of total energy in US used to produce electricity

Data from EIA 2017

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T C

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CO2 Emissions from primary energy

World

China

United States

India

Russia

Japan

Germany

Data from EIA

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Fig 1. IAEA Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015 (WEO 2014 New Policies Scenario)

Electricity Consumption by Source 2016

Electricity from renewable sources 2016

EIA Monthly Energy Review Mar 2017

Coal, 34.3%

Nuclear, 22.3%

Natural gas, 27.3%

Renewable energy, 14.8%

Petroleum, 0.6%

E

Hydro 44.2%

Geothermal, 2.9% Solar, 6.0%

Wind, 37.8%

Biomass, 9.1%

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nuclear, 60.1% Hydroelectric,

17.6%

Geothermal, 1.2%

Solar, 2.4%

Wind, 15.1%

Biomass, 3.6%

Colorado Electricity by Source – EIA 2013

Fort Collins Electricity by Source – PRPA 2014

Natural Gas-

Fired

20.0%

Coal-Fired

63.4%

Hydro

electric

2.3%

Other

Renewables

14.3%

Natural gas

0.2%

Coal-fired

74.2%

Hydropower

19.1%

Wind and

RECs

4.8%

Unspecified

purchases

1.7%

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*Colorado data are for 2015

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

US

Colorado

Ft Collins

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydropower

Renewable

Other

EIA Monthly Energy Review, March 2017

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Fig 3. IAEA Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015

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Coal provides baseload power ◦ Needed 24 hours a day

Nuclear power also provides baseload ◦ It could be increased to

remove need for coal

Wind and solar can only contribute to intermediate and peak load ◦ Too intermittent and

unreliable for baseload

Shively & Ferrare: Understanding Today’s Electricity Business, 2010

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Location ◦ Best in Midwest and offshore

◦ Not where most people live

◦ Need transmission lines

Intermittency ◦ Capacity factor 27% in 2010

◦ EIA projects 35% by 2020

◦ Needs backup power

Turbine lifetime ◦ ~20 years

Footprint is huge ◦ About 500 sq mi wind

farm to generate same energy as 1 average nuclear power plant

◦ Visual impact ◦ Road infrastructure

Doesn’t provide baseload power

Provides 5.6% of electricity in US (2016)

Production tax credit of 2.2 cents/kWh

Where people live Where the wind blows

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Wyoming – PRPA; Wind blows mostly in winter

Rated at 6 MkWh/mo

Minnesota Spring 2010; Hourly wind output vs load

Source: DOE

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Smoky Hills Wind Farm in Kansas 26,000 acres, 250 MW capacity

Location ◦ Best in Southwest ◦ Not where most people

live ◦ Need transmission lines

Intermittency ◦ Varies through day ◦ Clouds, snow, etc ◦ Efficiency about 12% ◦ Capacity factor 25% by

2020 ◦ Needs backup power

Solar panel lifetime ◦ 20-25 years ◦ Lose 1%/yr in efficiency

Footprint is huge ◦ About 50 sq mi solar

farm to generate same energy as 1 average nuclear power plant

◦ Environmental impact

Doesn’t provide baseload power

Provides 0.89% of US electricity (2016)

Highly subsidized

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Where people live Where the sun shines

San Luis Valley CSU Solar Village

My grid-tie system My cabin

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Began operation in 2014 Nominal capacity of 377 MW Efficiency of 29% ◦ Average output of 109 MW

3,500 acres of desert Three 459 foot tall towers Cost $2.2 billion ◦ Federal-guaranteed loan for 80% of cost ◦ Premium price guarantee for electricity

New nuclear plant produces 1200 MW at a cost of about $7-9 billion

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Theoretical avg monthly output based on rating ◦ 275,300 MWh

Avg monthly output based on 29% capacity factor ◦ 79,850 MwH

Actual avg monthly output ◦ 46,910 MWh

◦ Efficiency 17.0 % 0

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J-14 M-14 A-14 O-14 J-15 M-15 A-15 N-15 J-16 M-16 A-16 O-16 J-17

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Data from EIA

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Theoretically could generate 60 kWh/da

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Coal mining1 ◦ >2,000/yr 1900-1930 This happens currently in China

◦ >1,000/yr 1931-1947 ◦ Average 451/yr in 1950s ◦ Average 142/yr in 1970s ◦ Average 43/yr in 1990s ◦ Average 33/yr in 2000s ◦ Black lung/lung cancer/respiratory disease thousands per year in US Hundreds of thousands per year in China

US nuclear reactors over 40+ years ◦ None

1Source: US Dept of Labor Mine Safety and Health Administration www.msha.gov

West Virginia: mountaintop removal and valley fill

Wyoming: Powder River Basin

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Advantages ◦ Half the CO2 of coal (maybe) Depends on fugitive emissions

◦ US has a plentiful supply ◦ Can replace coal plants ◦ Cheap but volatile

Disadvantages ◦ Methane from leakage 25 times greater GWP (global warming potential) than CO2

◦ Fracking Potential air and water issues

◦ Used in all sectors of energy economy Competition for resource

◦ Deaths from accidents

Replace coal for baseload power ◦ Run 24/7 with >90% capacity factor

No carbon dioxide emissions Build them where energy needed ◦ Small footprint – about 1/3 sq mile

Lots of power – average about 1,000 MWe Proven technology ◦ Boiling water reactors ◦ Pressurized water reactors

New designs even safer for future ◦ Generation III: cooling for several days without power ◦ Small Modular Reactors

Operating lifetime ◦ 60 years

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Country % electricity Reactors operable

Under construction

Planned/ proposed

USA 19.7 99 4 16/19

France 72.3 58 1 0/1

Japan 2.2 42 2 9/3

Russia 17.1 35 7 26/22

S. Korea 30.3 25 3 8/0

China 3.6 36 21 41/174

India 3.4 22 5 20/44

Canada 15.6 19 0 2/0

World 11.5 447 59 170/372

Data from World Nuclear Association 5/2/2017

*Japan temporarily shut down their reactors in 2011. 2 restarted by early 2017.

Where people live Where reactors are

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Three Mile Island (PA) Wolf Creek (KS)

Hydropower avoided 84 Gt

Nuclear avoided 64.5 Gt

Other renewables avoided 8.6 Gt

Fig. 7, IAEA Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015

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Since 1975, nuclear power has avoided 26 billion tons of CO2

Since 1990, nuclear power has avoided 21 billion tons of CO2

Each year nuclear power avoids about 860 million tons of CO2

My calculations, based on assuming coal would have been used if not nuclear.

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Source: EIA, Levelized cost and levelized avoided cost of new generation sources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015, 6/3/15

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Energy Source

New Capacity GW

Cost $Billions

*Yearly Output TWh

Lifetime Output TWh

Wind 64 109 140 4,200 (30 yrs)

Solar 59 92 78 3,120 (40 yrs)

Nuclear 9.4 31 71 4,200 (60 yrs)

Boisvert, W. Not Dead Yet, Breakthrough Institute, 4/22/2016.

*Assumes capacity factors of 25% for wind, 15% for solar, 90% nuclear

Energy Source

New Capacity GW

#Cost $Billions

*Yearly Output TWh

Lifetime Output TWh

Wind 32.5 42 63 1,890 (30 yrs)

Solar 18.3 24 24 960 (40 yrs)

Nuclear 7.63 24 58 3,420 (60 yrs)

#Assumed cost of $1,300/kW wind & solar, $3,100/kW nuclear

*Assumes capacity factors of 25% for wind, 15% for solar, 90% nuclear

Boisvert, W. Not Dead Yet, Breakthrough Institute, 4/22/2016.

Note: Cost of Plant Vogtle is about $7,700/kW, including financing

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Radiation from nuclear fuel cycle ◦ Mining, milling,

enrichment ◦ Very small <0.1 mSv

Nuclear waste ◦ On-site storage Cooling pools Dry cask storage

◦ Geological disposal Yucca mountain?

◦ Recycle used fuel Reuse Pu in MOX fuel France, Russia, Japan,

Germany, UK do it

Major accidents ◦ Three Mile Island (1979) No deaths or injuries

◦ Chernobyl (1986) only accident to cause loss of

life 31 immediate deaths 19 more by 2004 from

uncertain causes 15 kids from thyroid cancer ~4,000 over a lifetime

◦ Fukushima (2011) due to tsunami that killed

over 19,000 people A few people may ultimately

die of cancer

Over 14,500 reactor years of operation

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~600 coal-fired plants produce 14.2 quads (Quadrillion BTUs) of energy ◦ produce 1.5 Gt CO2

99 nuclear reactors produce 8.4 quads

~150-175 additional reactors could replace the coal-fired plants ◦ New reactors are about 1200 MWe compared to current 950

MWe average

55 GWe new nuclear needed by 2035 to maintain 20% electricity share due to reactor retirements*

This would reduce environmental damage from mining, global warming from reduced CO2 and loss of life from mining accidents and air pollution

Data from EIA for 2017 * Data from WNA

At least double nuclear power capacity to reduce/eliminate coal fired plants ◦ Carbon tax necessary to make nuclear competitive

Replace oldest coal plants with natural gas ◦ Reduce fugitive emissions and environmental hazards from

fracking

Increase fuel efficiency of cars to 55 mpg average (new CAFE standards) ◦ Increase hybrids and electric vehicles

◦ Need more electricity to power EVs

◦ Hydrogen cars???

Get 20% of electricity from wind and solar

Increase energy efficiency in houses, factories, and public buildings

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Some day the earth will weep, she will beg for her life, she will cry with tears of blood. You will make a choice, if you will help her or let her die, and when she dies, you too will die. John Hollow Horn, Oglala Lakota, 1932

With climate change, those who know the most are the most frightened. With nuclear power, those who know the most are the least frightened. Variously attributed