1519Montezuma, the Aztec ruler,serves a cocoa drink calledxocoatl (shoh-KWAH-tu/},which means "bitter water,"to Spanish conquistadorHernan Cortes (Left). Corteslikes it enough to take itback to Spain with him.

Mid-1500sto Mid-1600sWith cinnamon and vanillaadded to reduce the bitterness,the cocoa drink becomes atreat for Spain's nobility.It later becomes popularthroughout Europe-still onlyas a beverage and for the elite.

Why the world's favorite treat could get a lot more expensive-and harder to find

The next time you're eatinga piece of chocolate, slowdown and savor every bite.There could come a day whenthis relatively cheap treat is a lotmore expensive and harder to find.That's because the rate at whichpeople are gobbling up chocolatefar outpaces the rate at whichfarmers can produce cocoa, itskey ingredient.

Cocoa is the powder or pastemade from dried, crushed cocoabeans, the seeds of the cacao (kuh-KOW) tree. You can wolf down achocolate bar in seconds, but cocoabeans are a labor-intensive cropthat is difficult to grow.

Last fall, two major chocolatecompanies-Mars Chocolate, basedin New Jersey, and Barry Calle-baut, based in Switzerland-issued

Wo •.dsto OW• deficit lnl, an amount that is

less than tea ount needed;a shortage

a warning. If people keep eating somuch chocolate, they said, therewon't be enough to go around.

That day could arrive soonerthan you think. In 2013, the worldconsumed about 77,000tons more coco-a thanwas produced. Thetwo chocolate makersestimate that theglobal cocoa deficitcould reach 1.1 milliontons by 2020, and2.2 million tons by 2030.

amount available), prices tendto rise. When supply is greaterthan demand, prices tend to fall.Demand for cocoa has exceededsupply for the last two years.

When manufacturershave to pay morefor raw materials,sooner or later theypass the costs onto consumers. Thathappened last summer,

when Hershey'sannounced an 8 percent

price hike, its first price increasesince 2011. Other chocolatecompanies followed suit.

Despite the cocoa shortage,shoppers probably haven't noticedany reduction in chocolate-flavored products in stores. Sofar, food makers have been ableto keep up. That's because cocoa-processing companies still havestockpiles to keep candy andfood makers supplied. But thosereserves are dwindling.

continued on p. 14

ChoconomicsLike. all products, chocolate

is subject to the law of supplyand demand, a basic principleof economics. When demand(the amount people want tobuy) is greater than supply (the

• economics ln}. the science ofhow people produce, sell, andbuy goods and services

18905Pennsylvanian Milton SnavelyHershey perfects a formulafor the mass-production ofmilk chocolate into edible bars.His "Hershey bar" transformschocolate from an expensivecandy for the wealthy to onemost people can afford.

1847An English co a y bendscocoa and sugar to ake thefirst edible solid ocolate.Milk chocolate is i e ted29 years later. e a ielPeter of Switzerlapowdered milk for a essbitter taste.

TodayHershey's, sells a lotof chocolate-about$7 billion worth in2013-most of it in theU.S. Mars, the world'sbiggest candy maker,had nearly $18 billionin sales the same year,

JANUARY 12, 2015/ JUNIOR SCHOLASTIC 13

Supply Is Down ...Why not just plant more cacao

trees? That's easier said than done.Most cacao trees are grown onsmall family farms in poor coun-tries. Forty percent of the globalcocoa bean supply comes fromCote d'Ivoire alone (seep. 15).

Unlike growing corn or wheat,which can be planted in vast fieldsand harvested with machinery, har-vesting cacao is a slow, painstakingprocess, all of it done by hand.

A cacao tree can produce up to70 pods a year, each of which mustbe cut down and chopped open. Theseeds are then collected and cleanedof the gooey white pulp that sur-rounds them. Those seeds-cocoabeans-are dried (see photo below)and fermented for at least a week.Then the farmer bags the beans

and ships them to companies thatprocess the beans into the powder,paste, and liquid forms used by foodand candy makers.

More trees would require moreworkers, but few cacao farmerscan afford to pay a crew's wages.Instead, many rely on much cheaperslave labor (see sidebar below).

Cacao farmers also have to copewith plant diseases and insects thatdestroy crops. According to theInternational Cocoa Organization(ICCO), such blights cause "lossesas high as 30 percent to 40 percentof global production." Frosty podrot, a plant disease caused by afungus, has stricken West Africancacao crops in recent years. Unusu-ally dry weather in Cote d'Ivoire(also known as Ivory Coast) andGhana has also been a factor.

14 JUNIOR SCHOLASTIC / JANUARY 12, 2015

... and Demand Is UpAs these problems keep the

global cocoa supply down, theglobal demand for chocolate isskyrocketing. One reason is thatfood companies keep corning upwith new uses for cocoa. Chocolateseems to be everywhere these days,from chocolate cheddar cheese andchocolate pizza to chocolate-coveredbacon, pretzels, and potato chips.

Another factor is the new andfast-growing middle class in China,the world's most populous nation.People there are developing ataste for many Western goods-including all things chocolate.

But so far, the Chinese, who eatonly about 3.5 ounces of chocolateper capita (per person) per year, areno match for Western Europeans,who devour the most chocolate percapita (see p. 15). Americans eatabout 12 pounds per capita a year.

The Bottom LineEven with cocoa supplies tight

in recent years, the chocolateindustry takes in about $110 billiona year and is investing in futureproduction. Mars, the world'stop-selling chocolate maker, justopened a state-of-the-art chocolatefactory in Topeka, Kansas. Evenwhen times are hard, people finda way to satisfy a sweet tooth. AsMike Wittman, a Mars executive,says, "Consumers really enjoy theirsmall indulgences."

-Kathy Wilmore

Which is moreresponsible for the risingdemand for cocoa: candy

and food companiesor shoppers? Why?

MAPSEAHCH

Cocoa: Who Grows It, Who Eats It

• Top producer

• Top consumer

Top 5 Producers~~

SOURCES, IceD Quarterly Bulletin, 2013-14; Statista

Top 5 Consumers~~

Questions*GDP stands for gross domestic product: per capita means "per person." The amount is the value of all goods and services producedin a country in a year, divided by the population. It often is used as a measure of a nation's wealth.

SOURCES, Statista (2012); The World Factbook (CIA)

1. All the top chocolate-consuming countriesare part of which continent?

2. How much chocolate was eaten in 2012 in thecountry with the highest per capita GDP?

3. How many tons of cocoa beans in total wereproduced by the African countries labeled?

4. Which top consumer is northernmost?5. Ghana produced how many more tons of

beans than the top producer in Asia?

6. Which producing country is the wealthiest?,7. u.s. per capita GDP of $52,800 is closest to

that of which country listed?8. Which country has a per capita GDP about

22 times that of Cote d'ivoire?9. Why might top producers be so poor?

10. All the top-producing countries are near theequator. What does that tell you about the typeof climate needed for growing cacao trees?

JANUARY 12, 2015/ JUNIOR SCHOLASTIC 15