Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications

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Over the Top Brough Turner

description

Presentation at 4G Wireless Evolution Conference Feb 2011.

Transcript of Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications

Page 1: Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications

Over  the  Top  Brough  Turner  

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Why  Over  the  Top  is    the  Future  of  Communica7on    

Brough  Turner  Founder,  netBlazr.com  

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•  "Internet  protocol  networks  are  like  Pac  Man.  Eventually  they  will  eat  everything.”  – Hossein  Eslambolchi,  AT&T's  CTO,  2003  

•  "Anyone  who  relies  on  the  fact  that  they  own  a  scarce  distribu7on  resource  is  going  to  face  ten  years  of  turmoil.”  –  Paul  Sagan,  chief  execuHve  of  Akamai,  2007  

•  "If  a  customer  likes  it,  it  doesn't  maIer  what  it  does  to  your  economics  –  it's  going  to  happen.”  –  Jack  Cassidy,  CEO  of  CincinnaH  Bell,  2008  

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PredicHons  vs.  Outcomes  •  1-­‐3  year  predicHons  usually  over  enthusiasHc  – Takes  longer  or  never  happens  …  

•  Actual  outcomes  more  sweeping  than  expected  – But  decades  perspecHve  

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PredicHons  vs.  Outcomes  •  1-­‐3  year  predicHons  usually  over  enthusiasHc  – Takes  longer  or  never  happens  …  

•  Actual  outcomes  more  sweeping  than  expected  – But  decades  perspecHve  

Hype  

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PredicHons  vs.  Outcomes  •  1-­‐3  year  predicHons  usually  over  enthusiasHc  – Takes  longer  or  never  happens  …  

•  Actual  outcomes  more  sweeping  than  expected  – But  decades  perspecHve  

AdopHon  

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       NegaHve  Returns  (2000-­‐2009)  

hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-­‐broadband-­‐networks-­‐returns-­‐on-­‐invested-­‐capital-­‐sHnk  

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       NegaHve  Returns  (2000-­‐2009)  

hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-­‐broadband-­‐networks-­‐returns-­‐on-­‐invested-­‐capital-­‐sHnk  

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Ne[lix  Performance  on  Top  US  Networks  

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Data  Rates  

•  TwiWer:      Negligible  •  Facebook:      Tiny          (except  video)  •  Skype  audio:    6-­‐40  Kbps  *  •  Ne[lix  SD  Video:    500,  1000  &  1500  Kbps  **  •  Ne[lix  HD  Video:    2600  &  3800  Kbps  **  

*          SILK  wideband  audio  coder  **      VC1  Advanced  Profile  video  coder  

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Latency  Not  Important  

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Latency  is  Important  

ConversaHon,    even  with  a      voice  mail  system,  requires  low  latency  

hWp://www.flickr.com/photos/fadderuri/2715777726/  

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Mouth-­‐to-­‐Ear  delay  

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Voice  QoS  

1.  Dedicated  wires  =  20th  century  approach  – Cable  &  FiOS  use  separate  logical  path  today  

2.  Simple  prioriHes  – Mobile  telephony  (2G-­‐  &  3G-­‐specific  approaches)  – Enterprise  IP-­‐PBXs  (via  DiffServ  or  802.1p)  

3.  Extra  bandwidth,  i.e.  “headroom”  – Vonage,  etc.  – Skype  

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Mobile  download  bandwidth  

Akamai  State  of  the  Internet  Report  3Q  2010  

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Voice  on  4G  

•  LTE  is  all-­‐IP:    Voice  services  a  work-­‐in-­‐progress  1.  Fallback  to  3G  voice  2.  Leverage  IMS  /  “One  voice”  /  VoLTE  (not  VoLGA)  

•  4-­‐6  years  for  widespread  4G  voice  services  based  on  carrier-­‐provided  QoS  

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Over-­‐the-­‐Top  •  Video                                                                        Social  – Happening  now                                                    –  Game  over  

– Happening  fast  !  

•  Voice  – Happening  now  – TransiHoning  market-­‐by-­‐market,  as  bandwidth  headroom  becomes  available.  

– Over-­‐the-­‐top  voice  on  4G  is  a  certainty  

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Over  the  Top  is    the  Future  of  Communica7on    

Brough  Turner  [email protected]  

Thank  you