Why now, why us?

• Never waste a crisis

• A classic public health issue

• Health arguments not heard

Mike Gill Co-chair Climate and Health Council

Never waste a crisis

Food Production

Up to 2003Up to 2003– Food production Food production

>x2 since 1960 >x2 since 1960 – Food production per Food production per

capita had growncapita had grown– Food prices had Food prices had

fallenfallen– Percent of Percent of

undernourished undernourished fallen fallen

– But the benefits are But the benefits are uneven, with 850 uneven, with 850 million people still million people still hungryhungry

– Significant Significant environmental environmental degradationdegradation

Water

15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (unsustainable (low to medium certainty)low to medium certainty)

Why now, why us?

• Never waste a crisis

• A classic public health issue

350m years-worth of CO264m (354-290m years ago) = Carboniferous

…which we are burning VERY fast

150 years 100 years 50 years NOW

First Oil Well

4142 cars, 10 miles concrete

road in US

650,000,000 cars

4,800,000,000 passenger flights

First commercial

jet ticket

• 205,733 kg of coal…..

• 92,652,841 litres of gas….

• 156,284 litres of oil…..

…….. A SECOND

0

5

10

15

20

25

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Bil

lio

ns

of

ton

nes

of

CO

2

http://staging.climateandhealth.org/

• Not only are we producing record levels of greenhouse gases, we are removing the planet’s ability to absorb them

• Half of all forests have been destroyed in the 50 years prior to 2000 = 20 football pitches every minute

Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

Katrina cost as much as four years of war in Iraq:

$250 BILLION

WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2008LIVING PLANET INDEX

“Ground-living vertebrates have declined by 25%, with most of the slump occurring since 1980. Marine species held fairly steady until the late 1990s before falling sharply to give an overall drop of 28%. Freshwater species have decreased by 25%, primarily since the late 1980s.”

MASS EXTINCTION EVENTS

500 million 400 million 300 million 200 million 100 million

488 million

Cambrian-Ordovician

444 million

Ordovician- Silurian

360 million

Devonian-Carbiniferous

251 million

Permian-Triassic

200 million

Triassic-Jurassic

65 million

Cretaceous- Tertiary70% species die

over 20m years

96% marin

e/

70% land

species die

20% marin

e

species die

50% species

die over

many

thousands of

years

“A 1998 survey by the American Museum of Natural History found

that 70% of biologists view the present era as part of a mass

extinction event, the fastest to have ever occurred. Some.. predict the

extinction of one-half of all species in the coming decadesin the coming decades”

We are already losing 3 species AN HOUR

AND WE HAVEN’T EVEN STARTED YET…

Most global health problems are ‘self inflicted’:

• War

• Inequality

• Tobacco

• Alcohol

• Air pollution

• Road trauma

• Obesity

• Malnutrition

• Physical inactivity

• Climate Change

But climate change will soon be irreversible

Although climate change can cause illness and death...

- Heat-related deaths

- Skin cancer and cataracts

- Injuries and infectious diseases as a result of increased

flooding

- Respiratory disease

- Insect-borne disease

- Food poisoning

…there are even greater risks of widespread trauma, disease and deaths through civil unrest:

• Crop failure >> famine >> deaths

• Water shortages >> human conflict >> deaths

• Mass migration >> human conflict >> deaths

• Economic collapse >> human conflict >> deaths

• Resource wars >> human conflict >> deaths

• Ecosystem collapse >> human conflict >> deaths

Melting glaciers in the Himalayas are wreaking havoc in Bangladesh leading to a rise in illegal migration to India. This has prompted India to build an immense border fence in attempt to block newcomers.

28 February 2006

India builds a 2,500-mile barrier to rival the Great Wall of China

Why now, why us?

• Never waste a crisis

• A classic public health issue

On the obesity epidemic….

‘A more enlightened health sector would have engaged early with other sectors in relation to a foreseeable (although mostly not foreseen) crisis, reducible by intersectoral planning in relation to urban design, transport systems, food production, and marketing.’

McMichael AJ et al The Lancet, 374; 2123 - 2125

Why now, why us?

• Never waste a crisis

• A classic public health issue

• Health arguments not heard

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; 1992) committed nations to work collectively to engage in…….

“minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment”

(Article 4, Item f)

Why did Copenhagen not get further?

Developing countries want developed countries to

• allow them to develop, and pay for the cost of the clean energy they need to do so

• show responsibility for the current mess by committing to huge reductions in their own GHG emissions

• support them financially in necessary adaptation

Three challenges

Structured assessments of risk

Development of adaptation strategies

Telling the co-benefits story

The Co-benefits story - headlines

What’s good for the climate is good for health

Low carbon societies are the next great health advance

Mitigation actions will result in huge, immediate, and certain health benefits

Supported by a consortium of funding bodies coordinated by the Wellcome TrustDepartment of Health NIHR, Economic and Social Research Council, Royal College of Physicians, Academy of Medical Sciences, US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHO

Involving over 50 researchers from UK, USA, India, Canada, Australia, Spain, France, New Zealand, WHO Geneva

The Task Force on Climate Change Mitigation and Public Health

Indian Stoves – Traditional and Modern

Gasifier Stove with Electric Blower(battery recharged with

cell phone charger)

Traditional Biomass Stove

Per meal

~15x lessblack carbon and

other particles

~10x less ozoneprecursors

~5x less carbonmonoxide

Health benefits of the Indian stove programme

Deaths from ALRI Deaths from COPD Deaths from IHD

Avoided in 2020 (%) 30.2% 28.2% 5.8%

Total avoided 2010-20 240,000 1.27 million 560,000

ALRI=acute lower respiratory infections. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IHD=ischaemic heart disease.

GHG benefits of Indian stove programme

• Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone precursors could amount to the equivalent of 0.5-1.0 billion tonnes of CO2 eq over the decade

• Cost <$50 per household every 5 years

Impact in UK 2010 population in 1 year UK household energy efficiency(combined improvements)

Premature deaths averted ~ 5400

Mt-CO2 saved (vs 1990) 55

Health and GHG benefits (UK)

Action to reduce EuropeanCO2 emissions by 30% -> savings “as much as €76

billion per year.”

Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL), Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E) and WWF

Why now, why us?

• Never waste a crisis

• A classic public health issue

• Health arguments not heard

Group Ranking Tell the truth (%)

Not tell the truth (%)

Doctors 1 91 6 Teachers 2 87 8 Television news readers

3 66 24

Professors 4 74 11 Judges 5 72 19 Scientists 7 64 23 Civil servants 11 45 42 Government ministers

14 20 72

Politicians generally

15 19 73

Journalists 16 (last) 13 79

Public trust in different professions

Source: MORI - UK survey

‘Trust’ a two edged sword

Influence

Sins of omission

What can we do?

• Illustrate the clear links

• Articulate the major benefits of appropriate action

• Lead personal life styles which are climate-friendly

• Sharpen our advocacy

The Times May 25, 2009

Climate change is the cholera of our era

The medical profession needs to wake up: we should be in the vanguard of the green revolution

Muir Gray

...but what can I do?

• Ensure your MP, your line manager / Chief Executive, your Chairman and non-exec.s, your local politicians know that MANY health professionals are seriously concerned. Numbers matter.

• Join the Climate and Health Council

• Set up an Irish Climate and Health Council

• Sign the Climate and Health Council pledge at www.climateandhealth.org

Why now, why us?

• Never waste a crisis

• A classic public health issue

• Health arguments contain good news, come from a trusted source, and can transform the political context

John Holdren, White House science advisor:

We are driving a car with bad brakes in a fog and heading for a cliff. We know for sure the cliff is out there. We just don’t know exactly where it is. Prudence would suggest we should start putting on the brakes

Source: Wilkinson and Pickett, Equality and Sustainability, report for London SDC 2009