Why isn't my lap top intelligent ?
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Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
ca-global.org
Why isn’t
my laptop
Intelligent?
cochrane.org.uk
Friday, 16 March 12
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It has an abundance of: - processing power
- memory
- RAM
- network access
- WWW information
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But it acts dumb and doesn’t:
- learn my habits
- anticipate my needs
- correct my errors
- learn from mistakes
- monitor me and my life
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But why even as the question ?
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We cannot work any faster or any harder - we have reached the end of the line ?
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We a r e n o w t h e ultimate limiter and slow down mechanism in a networked world we have created ?
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38,700,000
14,600,000
Not all that helpful !
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Muscle amplifier
Brain amplifier
Intellect amplifier
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We face a tide complexity, non-linearity & chaos... and biologically we are not going to get any smarter...
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We have no general math or theoretical framework to fall back on...
...that can cope with the problems we face
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And we live at a time of greater achievement and creativity than any other...
...at no time in the past has humanity discovered, understood or created so much...
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Just a
selection
of things
small
we really
don’t understand
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In order to move on w e n e e d a n e w approach...
...help from new intelligences that see the world from a different perspective...
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Old systems & methods are extremely unlikely to be able to help...or cope with the demands and changes to come...
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During the reformation ever yth ing became stove-piped... initially t h i s b rough t huge benefit, but it is now a major inhibitor...
...there is only science...
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So what is the state of p lay with Ar t ific ia l Intelligence today...
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And are machines re a l l y c ap ab l e o f creativity...
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IBM - Deep Blue 1972
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NASA Planetary Walker - 2002
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M a c h i n e s that design m a c h i n e s today...
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IBM - Watson 2010
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Life and death decisions are a fact of life...
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But machines are now assuming new levels of responsibility in medicine...
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To say the least this p o s e s s o m e v e r y serious issues...
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So what do we know of Intelligence ?
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Stanley Kubrick &
Arthur C Clarke 1968
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Dave has a bit of a problem with HAL...- “Open the pod bay doors HAL”- “Sorry Dave, I can’t do that”
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Machines do make mistakes, but so do we...and very often they go hand in hand, embedded in the root of software...
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The generic question we keep asking:
Where is HAL 9000 ?
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Where is he ?
1968
2000
2011Friday, 16 March 12
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Three big questions
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Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
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Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Will I be here in 2025 ?
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Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Will I be here in 2025 ?
Will my computer be proud of me before I die ?
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AI plays better games than us !
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AI outsmarts us on knowledge
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AI control a lot of our industrial process to feed, clothe, keep us warm and transport us...
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AI is now bringing a new level of creativity and problem solving to the party...
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BUT aren’t we just talking machines running algorithms ?
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The big problem is that we cannot describe, quantify or measure intelligence?
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>> 150 published definitions ??
AND - IQ Tests are worthless ??
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1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/s
Inte
llige
nce
Leve
l
PC
Internet SuperComputer
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The singularity priesthood 2035 !
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I got a call from a defence company
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compare
systems ?
How do we
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P.M Friday, 16 March 12
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No P or M !
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No P or M !
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Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !
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Ask them to think a b o u t p l a y i n g tennis...
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For >60% the brain activity is the same as for you and I...
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They are entombed in meat space...
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Sensors S = 0 no intelligence
Actuators A = 0 no intelligence
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Axiom
Intelligence is Entropic
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compare
systems ?A 30 second tutorial !
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ActuatorA
So starting with a simple model of this form...
ProcessorP1
SystemEnvirons
MemoryM
ProcessorP2
SensorsS
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And building the complexity a layer at a time...
SystemEnvirons
MemoryShortTerm
Processor1
Actuator
Sensors
MemoryLongTerm
Processor2
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Followed by mathematical juggling and normalisation, liberties, crimes, & of course engineering licence...
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So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
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So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about: - sensors? - adaptability?
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But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
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But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
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1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/sIntelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of Artificial Intelligence
Internet
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1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/sIntelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of Artificial Intelligence
Internet
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The good news !
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Mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !
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G o o g l e , I B M a re mov i n g i n to t h i s space!
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And it will arrive on our phones, tablets, pads, laptops via The Cloud...
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And the day can’t come quick enough!
Thank You
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Friday, 16 March 12