Why HDM-4?
Transcript of Why HDM-4?
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Overview of HDM-4
Henry KeraliLead Transport SpecialistThe World Bank
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Transport and Development
Transport sector is vital for economic & social developmentRoads constitute largest component of transportRoads require a balance of:
Maintenance (or Preservation)Development (or Improvement)
Objective of Road ManagementConsistent and Rational Policy ObjectivesSufficient and Reliable FundingEffective Procedures & Management Tools (e.g. HDM-4)
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Maintenance Expenditure
In many developing and emerging economies, actual expenditure on road preservation and maintenance is between 25 ~ 60% of need.
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HDM-4 Concept
Predicts road network performance as a function ofTraffic volumes and loading
Road pavement type and strength
Maintenance standards
Environment / Climate
Quantifies benefits to road users from:Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC)
Reduced road user travel times
Decrease in number of accidents
Environmental effects
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OptimumTotal
Road User
Road Works
Cost
Design Standards
Optimum Transport Costs
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Road Management
Purpose: To optimise the overall performance of the network over time in accordance with POLICY OBJECTIVES and within budgetary constraints
Typical objectives:Minimise transport costs
Preserve asset value
Provide and maintain accessibility
Provide safe and environmentally friendly transport
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Road Management Functions
PlanningSetting standards and policiesLong term estimates of expenditure
ProgrammingMedium term work programmes
PreparationDetailed project design and work packaging
OperationsImplementation of works in field
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Role of HDM-4
Management Function HDM-4 Application
Planning Strategy Analysis
Programming Programme Analysis
Preparation Project Analysis
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HDM-4 Applications
Road sector policy studies
Strategic planning of road network development, improvement & maintenance
Determination of funding requirements
Preparation of multi-year road work programmes
Economic appraisal of individual road projects
Research studiesRoad pricing
Vehicle regulations
Pavement design standards
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Standards & Policies
Road pricingroad use costs (to define fuel levies)congestion chargesweight-distance charges
Vehicle regulationsaxle load limitsenergy consumption, vehicle emissions & noise
Engineering Standardssustainable road network sizepavement design and maintenance standards
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Strategy Analysis
Objectives:Determine budget allocations for road maintenance and improvementPrepare for work programmesDetermine long term network performanceAssess impact on road users
Strategy analysis is concerned with the analysis of entire road networks to determine funding needs and/or to predict future performance under budget constraints
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Strategic Planning
Forecast scenarios of revenues & available budgetAssess current condition of assetsForecast traffic demands (from road network plan)Evaluate impact of strategies on performance and costs - using predictive modelOptimize strategies under alternative budget scenarios - maximize NPV for each scenarioDetermine multi-year program allocations & performance
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Strategic Analysis ApproachRoad NetworkRoad Network G F P
LMHMatrixMatrix
Resource Constraints
PreservationEvaluation
OptimizationModule
Optimal Strategy underBudgetary Constraints
Revenues, Sector budgets
Development Candidates
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Budget Allocation
Routine maintenance needs based on road lengths under each category of roadsRecurrent maintenance needs based on pavement surface condition Periodic maintenance needs based on economic indicatorsImprovement needs based on economic indicators
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Budget Summary
Maintenance Budget ($m)Primary Roads
Flexible Gravel
Secondary Roads
Flexible GravelRegion
North
East
South
West
45.9 18.7
34.6 13.5
52.1 21.0
27.2 20.4
34.5 21.8
24.9 11.8
45.0 21.8
19.5 12.3
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Effect of budget levels
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Aver
age
Rou
ghne
ss (I
RI)
$20m
$15m
$10m
AnnualBudget
Target = 3.5 IRI
Primary Roads
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Road Network Performance
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ave
rage
Rou
ghne
ss (I
RI) Feeder
Roads$30m/yr
SecondaryRoads$35m/yr
PrimaryRoads$20m/yr
Budget Allocations
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Optimal budget requirements
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006
US
$ m
/yea
r . DevelopmentImprovementPeriodicRoutine
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Programme Analysis
Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraintAnnual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan
Concerned with the preparation of single or multi-year road work and expenditure programmes under
specified budget constraints.
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Procedure .
Use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g.
road sections which exceed specified conditionroads with inadequate capacitypavements which need strengtheningupgrade pavements with high traffic volumes
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Procedure ..
Determine maintenance or improvement optionsSpecify budget limits & periodsOptimise using selected objectiveProduce optimal list of projects for budget period
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Work Programme Output
Priority Road Length Province Type of Scheduled Cost CumulativeRank Section (km) or District Road Work Year $m S$m
1 N1-2 20.5 2 Resealing 2000 5.4 5.42 N4-7 23.5 7 Overlay 40mm 2000 10.9 16.33 N2-5 12.5 5 Reconstruct 2000 8.6 24.94 R312-1 30 4 Widen 4 lane 2000 31.4 56.35 R458-3 36.2 3 Overlay 60mm 2000 16.3 72.6
: : : : : : : :1 N4-16 32.1 6 Reconstruct 2001 22.8 22.82 R13-23 22.4 4 Overlay 40mm 2001 9.7 32.53 N521-5 45.2 2 Widen 4 lane 2001 41.3 73.8
: : : : : : : :1 N1-6 30.2 4 Resealing 2002 8.2 8.22 N7-9 17.8 3 Overlay 60mm 2002 9.2 17.43 F2140-8 56.1 1 Reconstruct 2002 34.9 52.3
: : : : : : : :
20032003200320032003
200420042004
200520052005
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Project Appraisal
Project typesNew construction, upgrading
Reconstruction, resealing
Widening, lane addition
Non-Motorised Transport lanes
Economic indicatorsNet Present Value (NPV)
Economic Rate of Return (ERR)
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), NPV/C
First Year Rate of Return (FYRR)
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Economic Decision Criteria
NPV IRR3 NPV/C FYRRProject economic validity V.Good V.Good V.Good PoorMutually exclusive projects V.Good Poor Good PoorProject timing Fair Poor Poor GoodProject screening 1 Poor V.Good Good PoorUnder budget constraint 2 Fair Poor V.Good Poor
Notes:1. check for robustness to changes in key variables (sensitivity analysis)2. with incremental analysis3. IRR may be indeterminate with NONE or MANY solutions.
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Project Level Outputs
Sensitivity analysis resultsScenario analysisRoad condition indicatorsRoad user cost detailsEnergy & emissions
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HDM-4 as a Decision Support Component of Road Management Systems
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Data Data CollectionCollection DatabaseDatabase DecisionDecision
SupportSupportManagementManagementInformationInformation
InventoryConditionStructuresTrafficFurnitureUnit CostsStandards
RDBMS(RIMS)
Life CycleAnalysis(HDM-4)
Standard& CustomReports
Components of a Road Management System
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Management Information
Starting point in implementation“Must be relevant to the decision-making process with little or no further processing”
Determine:Purpose/use of the management informationCorrespondence with management structureKey reports to be produced by Decision Support systemReports Formats
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Decision Support SystemTransparency of analysisLife cycle analysis capable of:
Short, Medium & Long term analysesWhat-if analysis, Performance indicators
Management must understand analysis frameworkAvailability of local technical expertiseDefault data sets
HDMHDM--44
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HDM Technology Set
KnowledgeBase Software
ModelsSEERDWE
RUE
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HDM Series
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Conclusions – Why HDM-4?
Transparency of analysis
Economic analysis capable of:Short, Medium & Long term analyses
What-if analysis
Internationally accepted analysis framework
Availability of technical expertise
Local calibration
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Web sites:
http://hdm4.piarc.orghttp://www.bham.ac.uk