Why don't we get the future right?
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Transcript of Why don't we get the future right?
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Why don’t we get the future right?
Tom Stewart, System Concepts
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Billy Connolly quotes
“there are two seasons in Scotland: June and
Winter”
“there is no such thing as „bad‟ weather, just
the wrong clothes”
so maybe
“there is no such thing as bad predictions,
just how we interpret them”
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The telephone took off so
rapidly that a statistician at
Bell Telephone System
forecasted that at the then
current rate of increase,
every woman in the United
States would have to
become a telephone
operator!Emma McNutt 1878,
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Almon Strowger
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No, there are bad predictions
Edison’s Light Bulb - “good enough for our transatlantic friends ...
but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.”
British Parliamentary Committee, 1878.
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We
have plenty of messenger boys.”
Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.
“Very interesting Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.”
Cambridge Aeronautics Professor, when shown Frank
Whittle's plan for the jet engine.
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Why our predictions fail
we overlook the obvious
technology changes, people don’t
metaphors are dangerous
form and function have fallen out.
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Technology changes – people don’t
“...[there] has been great disorder in
…Manchester …windows broken yearly and
spoiled by lewd and disordered persons
…playing … football in the streets”
The problem in Manchester with the
banned activity of “ffotebale” in 1608.
“people need holes not drills”
Or do they
visual slide me with drills
wants are not the same as
needs and do change
but I want drills!
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Metaphors are dangerous
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Telegraph ipad edition
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Form and function have fallen out
Smaller is not
always better
IN
ON
ONE HAND
TWO HAND
CARRY
RIDE ON
RIDE IN
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the power of negative thinking
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identify constraints & show stoppers
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many suffer from...
“hardening of the categories”
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pretend you have Super Powers
imagine what you
would do if the
constraints were
lifted – remember
the brick
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then, evaluate, but…
... avoid Premature Evaluation!
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RIPE approach to the next big thing
Research – put in the hard work
Identify constraints – know the box
Pretend you have superpowers to
challenge assumptions and explore options
Evaluate – but not too early
020 7240 3388
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Thank You!