Why do we have a shortage of qualified Engineers across Europe?

Tony Ward,

University of York, England

Electrical & Electronic Engineering BSc (Hons)

1975 – 10 job applications 11 job offers!

2012 – 10 job applications 1 job offer perhaps!

The Problem

“The UK needs to increase by as much as 50% the number of Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) graduates it is

creating.”

“100,000 STEM graduates are needed a year just to maintain the status quo.”

Engineering UK 2014, UK Royal Academy of Engineering

Presentation contents

The lossy education pipeline

A look at the numbers

Levers to do something about it

The conclusions

End of compulsory education

The Lossy Pipeline

Engineering Employment

Non-Engineering Employment

FirstEmployment

Transition

PrimaryEducation

5 – 11 11 – 16 16 – 18 18 – 21 AGE

Pt 1SecondaryEducation

STEMBias

NonSTEMBias

Maths & Physics

Technology

IT

Other subjects

Pt 2SecondaryEducation

Engineering

Social Sciences

Arts & Humanities

STM

TertiaryEducation

Students with a STEM bias

Assumption: Engineering Entry Requirement:

• Mathematics

A-level results 2014

All subjects n = 833,807: Male = 379,823 (45.6%) Female = 453,984 (54.5%)

Mathematics n = 88,816: Male = 54,442 (61.3%) Female = 34,374 (38.7%)

Mathematics total = 10.65%

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/aug/14/a-level-results-2014-the-full-breakdown

Students entering HE

“Statistics published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills show that 49.3% of young people in England entered higher education in the last academic year, the highest rate on record and just a shade below the 50% mark that successive governments have vowed to reach.”

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/apr/24/students-higher-education-almost-50-per-cent

What percentage of these accepted students went into Engineering?

Students entering Engineering

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Percentage of Accepted Students

JASC Engineering

Engineering Plus

Per

cen

tag

e o

f A

ccep

ted

Ap

pli

can

ts

UCAS Statistics

Accepted students 2013 by Sub-discipline

H1 - General En-gineering

14%

H2 - Civil Engineering15%

H3 - Mechanical Engineering28%

H4 - Aerospace Engineering

10%

H5 - Naval Archi-tecture

0%

H6 - Electronic and Electrical Engineer-ing

18%

H7 - Production and Manufacturing

Engineering2%

H8 - Chemical,Process and Energy Engi-

neering10%

H9 - Others in Engineering0%

HH - Combinations within Engineering3%

Accepted Students 2013

Temporal Stability

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Accepted Students by Engineering Sub-discipline

General Engineering

Civil Engineering

Mechanical Engineering

Electronic & Electrical Engineering

Acc

epte

d s

tud

ents

Female distribution

Percentage Female Engineering Entrants in 2012 by Sub-discipline

  Total UK Non EU EU (exc UK) Total

Sub-discipline n % % % %

H1 - General Engineering 3379 15.9% 24.5% 14.5% 16.9%

H2 - Civil Engineering 4231 13.5% 21.1% 26.3% 16.0%

H3 - Mechanical Engineering 6855 7.6% 9.8% 8.2% 8.0%

H4 - Aerospace Engineering 2394 9.6% 13.2% 18.4% 10.7%

H5 - Naval Architecture 130 11.3% 13.6% 13.5% 12.3%

H6 - Electronic and Electrical Engineering 4645 7.0% 19.9% 8.8% 10.1%

H7 - Production and Manufacturing Engineering 648 23.0% 25.0% 20.4% 22.8%

H8 - Chemical,Process and Energy Engineering 2221 23.2% 36.3% 41.3% 27.1%

H9 - Others in Engineering 11 63.6%

HH - Combinations within Engineering 785 11.1% 13.2% 10.7% 11.3%

Students in Engineering

Percentage students accepted to Uni = 49.3%

Percentage of accepted students going into Engineering = 5.33% (average 2008 – 2013)

Extended Subject Group:• Physical sciences• Mathematical sciences• Engineering• Computer sciences• Technologies • Combined sciences

Percentage of extended subject group students going into Engineering = 17.21% (average 2008 – 2013)

Loss = 2.63%

Loss = 8.48%Optimistic!

The Numbers

• Total number of students accepted to HE: 480,000

• Percentage taking Engineering: 5.33% = 25,584

• Where do these go? Using DLHE statistics:

Full time61%

Part time7%

Work & further study7%

Full time study12%

Part time study2%

Unemployment9%

Other4%

Graduate Destinations2011/12

Full-time Employment: 15,709Part-time Employment: 1,740Work & further study: 1,663Full-time study: 2,993Part-time study: 384Unemployment: 2,200

Levers to do something

• More bodies into the pipeline

• More graduates by 2020

• Graduation in 2020 (age 21)

• Entry to University 2017 (age 18 assumption of 3 year degree)

• These people are aged 14 now!

End of compulsory education

The Lossy Pipeline

Engineering Engineering Employment

FirstEmployment

Transition

Social Sciences

Arts & Humanities

STM

Non-Engineering Employment

TertiaryEducation

Maths & Physics

Technology

IT

Other subjects

Pt 2SecondaryEducation

Pt 1SecondaryEducation

PrimaryEducation

5 – 11 11 – 16 16 – 18 18 – 21 AGE

STEMBias

NonSTEMBias

x1x2 x3

Levers to do something

• More bodies into the pipeline

• More graduates by 2020

• Graduation in 2020 (age 21)

• Entry to University 2017 (age 18 assumption of 3 year degree)

• These people are aged 14 now!

• Well into their Secondary education – probably already have their STEM (or non-STEM) bias established!

But what about the numbers?

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 900

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

UK Population by Age as of mid-2013

UK Total

Male

Female

Po

pu

lati

on

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

UK Population by Age as of mid-2013

UK Total

Male

Female

Po

pu

lati

on

Levers to do something

1. More bodies into the pipeline

• Relevant population is lower!

2. Reduce losses

• Increase bias towards STEM subjects in 11 – 16 age range

• IET: Faraday Challenge; Schools Outreach; Local HEI initiatives; Lego League

• RAE: Big Bang UK

• Arduino Challenge; Raspberry Pi Challenge; Makey Makey

• Draw more females into STEM early on (% doing maths is lower than males)

• Make Engineering:

• more attractive earlier (5.33% of all graduate entrants is too low!)

• MUCH more attractive to females (7% of engineering entrants are female – or 0.37%of all graduate entrants are for female engineering!)

2014 2013

Male 54442 61.3% 53435 60.7%

Female 34374 38.7% 34625 39.3%

Total 88816 88060

Conclusions

• Relying on natural increase in numbers (i.e. Passive activity) will not work

• Short term actions in HE to make programmes more attractive – probably will not work

• Initiatives targeting more engineers for 2020 are almost completely now too late!

• Need long term sustained activities aimed at young students

• Alternatives:

• Fill the pipeline with non-traditional bodies

• Life Long Learners

• Past qualified school leavers in a different career

Why do we have a shortage of qualified Engineers across Europe?

Thank you for listening

Questions?