Why Did Islamist Parties Win, and

What Does It Mean?

Danish Institute for International Studies

October 30 2012

Ellen Lust

Gamal Soltan

Jakob Wichmann

2

The Islamist won the elections in Egypt and Tunisia

15%

7%

8%

Other

Egyptian Bloc

Wafd Party

Nour Party

25%

Freedom and Justice Party

45% 7%

9%

12%

PDM

Ennahda

ETTAKATOL

CPR

Popular Petition

The Initiative

41%

13%

2%

other

Egyptian Election Tunisian Election

3

Why Islamists Won?

Three Potential Explanations

2. Islamist Parties provide Social Welfare Services in the Absence of the State

1. Islam Resonates with Arab, Muslim Voters

3. Islamist Parties were Better Organized During the Campaign

4

Although values appear stable over past year:

Preferences for Islamic, democratic and strong state model

7% 9% 10% 8% 6% 6%

55%

39%

November 2011

46%

47%

October 2011

Strong state

Democratic- civil state

Islamic state

June 2012

56%

38%

May 2012

44%

46%

September 2011

53%

38%

August 2011

51%

42%

Source: Parliamentary survey 1,2,3 4,5 & 6. Presidential survey 1, 2

5

In stark contrast, support for Islamist parties grew in the lead-up

to the election

Support for Islamist Parties

1

Source: Parliamentary survey 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6.

Citizens’ view of the Nour Party

2

4447

31

2625

-29-30

-23

-34

-39-39

1617

8

-8

-14

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Unfavorable

Favorable

Late

December

2011

Early

December

2011

November

2011

October

2011

September

2011

August

2011

-25

14 Favorable

minus

unfavorable

52

42

3432

19

23

77

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Late

December

2011

Early

December

2011

November

2011

10

October

2011

September

2011

August

2011

Al Nour Party

FJP

6

Support for Islamist parties stronger among those in need

Islamists more likely to be poor

1

Less Educated

2

Source: Parliamentary survey 4, 5 & 6.

No

Car owner

Islamic

party voter

91%

9%

Non-islamic

party voter

86%

14%

17%13%

44%

39%

Islamic

party voter

19%

29%

Non-islamic

party voter

17%

22%

High and Upper

Highschool

Illiterate/

barely read

College

Below High

School

Rural

Urban

Islamic

party voter

64%

36%

Non-islamic

party voter

52%

48%

More Rural

3

7

Islamist parties have superior organizational resources

Source: Interview with 7 political parties in Egypt, August – September 2012

More campaign volunteers

1

More active members

2

More full time staff

3

Non-Islamic

parties

11.900

Islamic parties

25.000

Non-Islamic

parties

24.500

Islamic parties

100.000

Full time

Part-time

Non-Islamic

parties

38%

63%

Islamic parties

75%

25%

Total number of campaign volunteers Total number of active members Type of staff in parties

8

Islamist Parties Mobilized both New and Old Voters

100%

Non-islamist parties

Islamist parties

New entrants

19%

81%

Old voters

20%

80%

Source: Presidential survey 1

31%

Old voters

New entrants

50%

Non voters

19%

Split of Old and New Voters Old and New Voter Choices

9

What Does it Mean?

Implications of Islamists’ Victory

Immediate Impact: Focus on Women

Long-Term Implications: The Transition Process

10

Not An Outcome Driven by Men

Women vote as much for Islamists as men

72% 72%

100%

Non-Islamist

Islamist

Female

28%

Male

28%

Source: Parliamentary survey 4, Parliamentary survey 5, Parliamentary

survey 6

11

4%

7%

25%

18%

4%

100%

Other

Absence of trust in authority figures

poverty and income reduction

Unemployment

Inflation

Security and stability

Female

1.602

8%

3%

26%

38%

Male

1.649

12%

15%

39%

Source: Parliamentary survey 4, Parliamentary survey 5, Parliamentary

survey 6

Men and Women have similar concerns

12

Men and women have similar views

8% 8%

14% 14%

5% 5%

Female

24%

49%

Male

27%

47%

100%

Completely disagree

Disagree

Somwhat agree

Agree

Strongly agree

Agreement on the statement: "Men have priority over women in employment"

Source: Parliamentary survey 3

13

Long-Term Implications for Transitional Politics?

• Secularists – domestic and abroad – tend to view “Islamist

takeover” reflecting deep-seated, values

• Fear of spreading message and power prompts support for

illiberal and anti-democratic policies

However,

• Illiberal policies have potential for inducing preference

falsification that strengthens Islamist parties

14

Moving Forward: Recognize Fluidity and Keep the

Playing Field Open

• Need to resist supporting efforts to limit liberal freedoms, discourse

• International actors need to avoid temptation to shore up secularists

vs. Islamists

• Counter-productive

• Not necessarily more liberal, democratic outcomes

• Respond to the needs of the center

• Need to emphasize iterative processes and seek ways to avoid

entrenchment of early winners

• Roles of local level elections

• Emphasis on media freedoms, freedom of association, political

parties laws, etc.

15

The transitional process has made participation in elections more

attractive to the youth, women and urbanized voters

18%

20%

11%

10%

Old voters

30%

21%

16%

11%

21%

41%

41-50

51-60

60+

New entrants

18-30

31-40

Source: Presidential survey 1

Female

Male

New entrants

51%

49%

39%

Old voters

61%

33%

51%

49%

Old voters

67%

New entrants

Rural

Urban

New entrants are younger

1

New entrants are more likely to

be female

2

New entrants are more urbanized

3