Why can we talk about climate 100 years from now when we can … · 2016-11-21 · Causes of...
Transcript of Why can we talk about climate 100 years from now when we can … · 2016-11-21 · Causes of...
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Why can we talk about climate 100 years from now when we can not even forecast the weather more
than a week?
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Is stratospheric ozone depletion the same thing as global warming?
NO!
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Stratosphericozoneabsorbsultravioletwavelengths.Alwayshas;Alwayswould- ifwedon’tdestroyit...
OZONEHASNOTHINGTODOWITHCLIMATE!(oratleastverylittlecomparedtothemainGHGs)
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USEPA
WhatcausestheozoneholeoverAntarctica?
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Fig.2-12,p.42
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Hasn’t climate changed before humans even were important?
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LGMSeaLevel&IceExtent21,000yearsago
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ClimaticForcingsandTimeScale
orbital
(orbital)solar/ocean
solar/volcanic
greenhousegases/naturalvariability
YD
LIA
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CausesofClimateChange
• TheSun(solaroutput– e.g.sunspots)
• OrbitalpositionofEarth(glacials)
• Volcanoes
• Tectonicprocesses:continentalpositionandtopography
• Greenhousegases(H2O,CO2,CH4,N2O,O3,CFCs)
• Aerosols(sulfates)
• Ocean’s“globalconveyerbelt”circulation
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Have humans really changed the composition of the atmosphere?
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Human-DrivenGlobalChange
Nov. 2016: 402 ppm
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GreenhouseGasandAerosolTrends(AR4)
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How much have we really actually warmed?
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Figure19:NorthernHemispherereconstructedtemperaturechangesince200AD
Global temperature has not changed by more than 0.5oC/century
Hockey Stick and Medieval Climate Anomaly
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Role of Interannual Variability (ENSO)
(Trenberth, K. and Faullo, J. T., 2013)
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What are some effects of the warming?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj1G9gqhkYA
Arctic Sea Ice Melt Video
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4419http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2016/05/spiral_optimized.gif
Temperature Warming Video
https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-nasa-videos-show-stark-ice-loss-from-earths-ice-sheets
Ice Sheet Melt Video
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Climate Extremes
(Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2014)
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Isn’t the warming just due to the sun?
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ModelwithNatural/
AnthropogenicVariability
IPCC, AR4
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CauseandEffect(AR4)
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TroposphericWarming,StratosphericCooling
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ClimateForcings (AR5)
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from Realclimate
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From skepticalscience
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What might the future look like?
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EmissionsScenarios(AR5)
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ALookattheFuture:GlobalTemperature(AR5)
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FutureSeaLevelRise(AR5)
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Future Increasing Extremes
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THC
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GreenlandandAntarctica(AR5)
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GlobalWarmingFeedbacks
• Clouds:Domorecloudsmeanmorewarming(+feedback)orlesswarming(- feedback)?:highvs.low,nightvs.day
• WaterVaporFeedback(+):tropics
• SeaIceAlbedoFeedback(+):highlatitudes
• LandSurfaceFeedbacks
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Weathernotebookexercise
• Collect6hourlyanddailylocalweatherdatafromweb(weatherunderground– localweather– history)
(http://www.wunderground.com)• Useexceltoplotdataforweekormonth• TrackstormswithdailyU.S.weathermapsfromNOAANCEP
(http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/)