Whole-system approach to assessing the value of flexible … - 17... · Energy Modelling Activities...
Transcript of Whole-system approach to assessing the value of flexible … - 17... · Energy Modelling Activities...
Whole-system approach to assessing the value of flexible technologies in
supporting cost effective integration of renewables
Goran Strbac
Imperial College London
Workshop on "addressing flexibility in energy system models"
Energy Modelling Activities at Imperial • Whole electricity System Model
• D. Pudjianto, P Djapic • Option value of flexibility under uncertainty
• R Vinter, I. Konstantelos, S Tindemans, P Falugi • Decentralised, Price based Control and Investment Model
• D Papadaskalopoulos, Y Ye, Y Fan • Advanced Stochastic Unit Commitment Model
• F Teng, M Aunedi • Combined Gas, Electricity and Hydrogen Model
• M Qadrdan, H Ameli, M Aunedi, R Moreno • Integrated Heat and Electricity Model
• R Sansom, P Postantzis • Hydrogen & Carbon Capture and Storage Model
• S Samsatli, N Shah, A Hawkes • Market Design and Business Models
• R Moreno, R Green, D Newbery
Tongland
THE SHETLAND ISLANDS
400kV Substations275kV Substations132kV Substations400kV Circuits275kV Circuits132kV Circuits
Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage
Connected at 400kVConnected at 275kVHydro Generation
2008/09 TRANSMISSION SYSTEMAS AT 31st DECEMBER 2007
ISSUE B 15-07-09 41/177625 C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999
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2020: 25% of energy demand to be supplied by renewable generation
2030: Decarbonising electricity system.... ....while
2030+: Electrifying heat and transport sectors… in order to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050
UK Response to Climate Change Challenge
Year U'lisa'on
2010 55%
2020 35%
UK Low carbon system: degradation in asset utilisation
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2020: Wind generation will displace energy produced by conventional plant but its ability displace capacity will be limited: more than 35% of conventional generation operating at less than 10% load factor 2030+: Electrification of segments of transport and heat sectors: increase in peak demand disproportionally higher than increase in energy
2030+ <25%
Balancing challenge and need for flexibility
Great business opportunity for flexible generation, storage, demand side response, interconnection
Value of flexibility
frequently higher than value of energy
Surplus of energy for >15% of time
55%
2010
Asset Utilisation
BaU
Flexible Balancing Technologies
2020 2030+
35%
25%
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Volume of the market for flexible balancing technologies >£60b
Interconnection & smart network technologies
Demand Response
Storage Flexible Generation
Paradigm shift: from redundancy in assets to intelligence
System integration challenge
“Understanding balancing challenge”, Imperial College, 2012
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Whole System Approach to Valuing Flexible Options - Time and Location effects
Generation, Transmission & Distribution Planning
Long-‐term Generation and Storage Scheduling
Day-‐ahead Generation, Storage & DSR Scheduling
System Balancing
Actual delivery: physical generation & consumption
One day to one hour before delivery
Months to days before delivery
Years before delivery
Adequacy Reserve & ResponseArbitrage
Demand-‐Side Response
Flexible Generation
Network Storage
Increasing asset utilisation and efficiency of system balancing
Whole-system modelling critical for capturing Time and Location interactions
(1) Do we understand the competitiveness and synergies between alternative flexible technologies?
(2) Is the market design efficient?
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Value of Energy Storage across time in renewable scenario
2015 2030 2050
1110 750 410 5000 2000 1000 12500 2500 1000
Cost of storage £/kw Cost of storage £/kw Cost of storage £/kw Cost of storage £/kw
Pudjianto D, Aunedi M, Djapic P, Strbac Get al., 2014, Whole-Systems Assessment of the Value of Energy Storage in Low-Carbon Electricity Systems, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, Vol: 5, Pages: 1098-1109
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Storage design parameters
!
How big the energy tank should be?
How important is storage efficiency?
“Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value of Energy Storage Systems in the UK Low Carbon Energy Future”, Imperial College, 2012
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What is the signal from market to energy storage scientists?
Loss of revenue of CfD / ROC recovered through the market – negative prices
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Operating patterns and technology degradation
Distributed Bulk
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Quantifying the value of storage: Stochastic or Deterministic?
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Investment in generation flexibility ?
System value of enhanced flexibility of CCGTs will be significant
How about the value to investors?
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Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Flexible Prosumers
Energy Flexibility
Energy: From the Grid to Consumers Flexibility: From Consumers to the Grid
Value today: £3 Value in 2030: >£80
Separated G&T&D? Business model?
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Electrifying transport sector: value of smart charging
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BaU Smart timing Fully smart
Additional cost to supply EV demand
(€/EV/year)
OPEX Generation CAPEXTransmission CAPEX Distribution CAPEX
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BaU Smart sched. Fully smart
Carbon
emission
s from su
pplying EV
s (gCO
2/km
)
DE-‐DK
Italy
UK-‐RI
Spain
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Reduced system inertia – opportunity for fast responsive technologies
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Va
lue
of
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en
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/kW
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Stochastic Unit Commitment with with inertia and frequency regulation endogenously modelled
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Can smart refrigerators displace power stations ?
=
? +
49.2 (H
z)
10 s 50.0
10 mins 50.2
Frequency control
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Time (min)
Load
p.f.
(W)
Load per fridge (p.f) Demand 60Gw 100% Refigerators, step 1.320GW ramp 0
DDCNo DDC...but the beer is
getting warm!
fridges are supporting the system
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Cos
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DD penetration
RES2050NUC2050RES2030NUC2030RES2050WNUC2050WRES2030WNUC2030WCUR2011
!
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Conflicts between load following and congestion management . .
Modelling of price based response of Demand Side Papadaskalopoulos D, Strbac G, 2013, Decentralized Participation of Flexible Demand in Electricity Markets-Part I: Market Mechanism, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, Vol: 28, Pages: 3658-3666
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Using demand side response to provide local network management services or balancing services at a national level
Whole-system or network centric approach?
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Example of Flexible generation: competition with other technologies
For high cost of flexibility (GH), build ~10 GW
For low cost of generation flexibility (GL), build ~16-18 GW for high interconnection levels, ~28-36 GW for low interconnection levels
Note: most flexible generators installed in SE&W region
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Complexity of distributed energy storage and demand response: Split benefits
Balancing services
Network services
DSR and storage - industry business model? Can the market facilitate this?
CHP HP ST
ORA
GE
HEAT NETWORK
ELECTRICITY NETWORK
Heat
Electricity t
Integrated heat and
electricity model
Combined Heat and Electricity Network
Op'ons: enhancing flexibility of gas network (linepack), more flexible CCGTs, electricity storage, Demand side response, Power-‐to-‐Gas . .
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Hydrogen Supply Chain model
Spatial element: Great Britain represented by 34 108×108 km2 square cells Temporal dynamic model with 4 to 6-hr periods in a day
Coal gasification
Natural gas
Coal
Biomass
Electricity
Steam methane reforming
Biomass gasification
Electrolysis
Liquid hydrogen
Gaseous Hydrogen
Tanker truck
Tube trailer
Railway tube car
Fuellingstations(liquid)
Liquidhydrogen storage
Compressed hydrogen gas
storage
Tanker truck
Railway tanker car
Tube trailer
Railway tube car
Fuellingstations(gas)
Railway tanker car
Coal
Biomass
Electricity
Natural gas Steam Methane Reforming
Coal gasification
Biomass gasification
Electrolysis
Tanker truck
Railway tanker car
Tanker truck
Railway tanker car
Tube trailerRailway tube car
Tube trailer Railway tube car
Fuelling station
Fuelling station
Liquid H2storage
Gaseous H2storage
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Dealing with uncertainty in future development: Option value flexibility
? ? Significant value in investing in flexibility to deal with uncertainty
North Sea Grid: strategic versus incremental: savings €25bn and€75bn
I Konstantelos, G Strbac, 2014, “Valuation of Flexible Transmission Investment Options Under Uncertainty, , IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, Vol: 28, Pages: 3658-3666
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Member State-centric or EU wide approach?
1. Energy sufficiency?
2. RES deployment?
3. Adequacy? 4. Balancing?
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Baseline Integrated Int Low TX Int Self-secure Int EU reserve Int DSR
Add
ition
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eaki
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apac
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Member state-centric or EU-wide capacity adequacy market?
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Can you really trust …… when it comes to security ?
EU Wide approach can save 100-160 GW of plant!
Savings more than €7bn per annum
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UK
Fr
Should the capacity of the
interconnector be allocated for
Energy or Reserve?
Base load Pump Storage
Mid merit CCGT
Variable wind
Increased need for reserve
Integra'on of balancing market
Flexibility cannot be traded cross-border!
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Stochastic Optimisation: coordinating allocation of interconnection capacity between energy and reserve
It is efficient to constrain energy flow in order to facilitate cross-border access to flexibility
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Power&flow
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wer&(G
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Wind"Power" "Reserve"purchased"in"A" Reserve"purchased"in"B"UK Fr
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EU RES deployment
Wind resource Solar resource
EU wide or member state centric approach? Should the Physics be respected?
North is Windy & South is Sunny…
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EU wide renewables deployment savings of 146 GW of PV & Wind => savings between €16.5 – 30bn per year
Coordinated RES deployment needs stronger interconnection
Impact of distributed genera3on on distribu3on network reinforcement
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LV, MV, HV – Low, Medium, High Voltage; V and I – Voltage and Thermal Constraints UG – Underground cables; OH – Overhead lines
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FR_C" FR_E" FR_N" FR_NE" FR_S" FR_SE" FR_SW" FR_W"
Reinf
orcemen
t+cost+(€m
)+
HV"UG"V"
HV"OH"V"
HV"UG"I"
HV"OH"I"
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Benefits of EU wide market integration (versus member state centric approach)
Area of Market Integration Savings in €bn/annum
Integrated EU Energy Market 9 - 34
Integrated EU Capacity Market 7 - 10
Integrated EU Balancing Market 2.5 - 5
Integrated EU Renewable Policy 15.5 - 30
Integrated North Sea Grid 3.5 – 9.5
Whole-system approach to assessing the value of flexible technologies in
supporting cost effective integration of renewables
Goran Strbac
Imperial College London
Workshop on "addressing flexibility in energy system models"