Who is afraid of population decline?
Transcript of Who is afraid of population decline?
Who is afraid of population decline?
The struggle of keeping rural population decline on the Dutch agenda
October 29th 2020, Bettina Bock
Today: information & reflection
InformationWhat does population decline mean in NL?How is population decline addressed by policymakers?
Reflection What can we learn from the Netherlands? Which processes are similar and different?
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Remaining population low SES
Lower education Lower income More unemployment More reliance on social
benefits More long term poverty
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In sum: lower overall wellbeing
Economic growth Household income (un)employment Health Access services Social cohesion
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2. Dutch shrinkage policies:
2009: 1st intergovernmental shrinkage action plan awareness raising
Identifying 7 shrinking & 16 anticipation regions Main problems: (vacant) housing & services Providing additional funds for training & awareness raising Some funds for civic experiments around service innovation
Main message to local governments: don’t fight population decline but invest in maintaining liveability for remaining residents
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Evaluation 1st actionplan in 2014
Limited problem definition Little attention for mobility & (digital) connectivity Lack of investment in regional economy Lack of investment in border-crossing collaboration No recognition of accumulation & intersection of problems Not recognition of negative effects of generic policies (e.g.
schools, transport, health, housing corporations)Flaws in governance structure: Let regional governments lead Include civic organisations Accept responsibility as central government
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2016: 2nd action plan
More shrinking regions & more problems!
Main problems: ● Vacant housing & real estate,
● economic vitality & labour market,
● (digital) connectivity,
● Maintenance services (culture, education, health/social care)
In time tools & new messages● Invest in smart specialisation● From regional partnerships● Let’s discuss common challenges, e.g. climate
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Evaluation 2nd action plan in 2019
Effect in the regions Main problems are still the same Sense of urgency & readiness to act in regions differs Leadership roles for provincial government and housing
corporations
Effects of national policy Little progress in problems arising from generic policies State should do more – not just facilitator Region deal as new catalysator
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2018: (re)discovery of regional development
Region deals:
public –private (co-financed) investment in selected priorities with governments, businesses, knowledge institutions & third sector (950 million state)
200 million for shrinking regions with variable focus:
Education, labour market, tourism, sustainable housing, sustainable energy, nature inclusive agriculture. marine economy ....
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The future: 3rd action plan ?????????????
Mainstream policy context Prominence of metropolitan agenda: investing in urban
growth: economy, infrastructure & housing Crisis 2008: regional economies hit hard with slow
recovery Post crisis 2008 decentralizing social domain to with
budget cuts And now COVID19
Increasing spatial & social inequality: income, health, infrastructure
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Against background of social unrest
Discontent & populist voting in ‘periphery’ Academics: importance of cohesive development Joint lobby of shrinking provinces & rural municipalities Municipalities complain about bankruptcy Discussions around spatial injustice
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Paradox of Dutch policies
Urban bias in mainstream policy = state interest Urbanisation and rural exodus seen as natural Definition of shrinkage as regional problem/weakness
Population decline is not seen as an urgent problemIs not a priority & continuity shrinkage policy uncertain
BUT regional policy might gain importanceWith climate change, need for sustainable energy
and following COVID19
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3. Reflection: what can we learn from NL?
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The Netherlands as ‘extreme case’ :
• Population decline not just in rural & remote regions
• Results also from general transitions (urbanisation,
globalisation, demographic transition, crisis)
Population decline is not ‘destiny’ or ‘nature’
It can hit everywhere (.g. Detroit!)
Population decline & rural urban relations
Population decline is not just about numbers It undermines wellbeing & social cohesion
Accumulation of material problemsExperience of urban bias and disrespect discontent and distrust
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Need to restore relations: rural-urban and centre-periphery
people oriented supporting inclusive wellbeing
Recognising place-specificneeds & opportunities
Acknowledging interdependency & reciprocity
as common interest & opportunity
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