Whispering Bell report on Security Situation in Libya following the 27th Jan 2015 Corinthia Hotel...

Libya Weekly Political and Security UpdateFurther distribution without written consent of Dunia Frontier Consultants and Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Dunia and Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Dunia Frontier Consultants and Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2013. All rights reserved.

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CONTENTS1THE BIG PICTURECorinthia Hotel Attack Highlights New Threat to Tripoli

2NATIONWIDE SECURITYEvents, Analysis and Data

3SECURITY BY NUMBERS Charts, Statistics and Analysis

4TRIPOLI REPORTNews & Neighborhoods

5BENGHAZI REPORTSecurity Update and Trends

6WHAT TO EXPECTForward Looking Expert Opinions

On Jan 27, at least two gunmen entered the Corinthia Hotel at approximately 0900hrs and opened fire, in an attack that will have serious implications for Tripoli and Libya more broadly. The Special Deterrence Force, a local militia based in eastern Tripoli, mobilized to regain control of the situation and surrounded the hotel, along with Janzour Knights and Nawasi Brigade. A standoff lasting hours ensued as unconfirmed reports emerged of a potential hostage situation. Amid exchanges of gunfire inside the hotel, Libya Dawn and Operation Dignity media outlets began releasing information in an attempt to shape the perception of events, adding to the confusion of what actually occurred. Conflicting reports from both sides will likely continue in an effort to cast doubt on official accounts of the attack.

As the standoff continued and the assailants ran out of ammunition, sources in Tripoli reported that two of the assailants detonated themselves, either with grenades or suicide belts, when local security forces attempted to apprehend them. Pictures of partially mutilated bodies of the assailants appeared on social media. Reports claim that between eight and ten people were killed, including one American security contactor working for a Virginia-based company called Crucible, one French citizen, three Libyan security guards, as well as an unconfirmed number of Filipino and Tajikistan citizens. Social media outlets allegedly affiliated with IS claimed responsibility for the attack as revenge for suspected Al-Qaeda terrorist, Abu Anas al-Libi, who died as a result of a medical condition while in US custody earlier this month. US Special Forces

captured al-Libi in Tripoli in 2013 and he was placed on trial for his connection to the 1998 bombings of two US embassies in Africa, which left hundreds dead. Reports suggest that one of the assailants was Tunisian and another was Sudanese.

The implications for Tripoli are clear, and the security environment has changed as a result of a deliberate attack against foreigners. Prior to the assault on the Corinthia Hotel, the majority of attacks in Tripoli in recent months targeted foreign diplomatic missions while largely avoiding civilian and commercial infrastructure. Local disputes, general crime, and carjackings added to a level of insecurity but financial gain was often the motive. A deliberate, coordinated attack against a major hotel targeting foreigners means that extremist elements exist within Tripoli—or can enter unnoticed—to carry out attacks against expatriates. While it is unknown whether the assailants acted individually or with direction from IS commanders outside of the country, the recent attacks in France, Canada and Australia have demonstrated that small groups of ideologically motivated assailants can commit acts of terror with little or no guidance. Unregulated, unofficial local security forces in Tripoli do not have the necessary resources, training and manpower, and the attack highlights the limits of their preventive and pre-emptive capabilities.

Libya WeeklyPolitical & Security Update

February 2 2015

1. The Big Picture Corinthia Hotel Attack Highlights New Threat to Tripoli

KEY POINTS

• Extremists storm Corinthia Hotel• Foreigners specifically targeted• IS claims responsibility for attack

DUNIA FRONTIERC O N S U L T A N T S

Whispering Bell

Dunia | Whispering Bell February 2 2015


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TRIPOLIBENGHAZIMisrata

Surt

Ras Lanuf Brega

Derna

TobrukZuwarah

Ghadamis

Sabha

Jawf

THREAT INDICATORS

Severe Threat

High Threat

Moderate Threat

EVENT INDICATORS

IED | VBIED

Violent Clash

Isolated Gunfire

Other

Oil Tanker Forced Away from Coast. The oil tanker Anwaar Afriqya was forced away from Libya’s coast near Misrata by forces loyal to the internationally recognized HoR government in Tobruk. The tanker was later allowed to return to Misrata after it had been confirmed that it had no weapons on board. Operation Dignity warplanes carried out airstrikes last month on a Greek-owned oil tanker and a fishing trawler carrying fuel, drawing international condemnation of the attacks.

Cargo Plane Fire at Mitiga Airport. A cargo plane caught fire at Mitiga Airport on the morning of Jan 30, leading to speculation of some sort of attack.

2. National Security Map International Concern Grows Over Deteriorating Security Situation

KEY POINTS

• Stalemate continues on all fronts• Libya’s international isolation grows

KEY SECURITY INCIDENTS

1. (Jan 25) Clashes continue near Es-Sider; no casualties reported

2. (Jan 26) Suspected Operation Dignity supporter killed near Ajaylat

3. (Jan 26) IED attack at beauty shop in Sirte; no casualties reported

4. (Jan 27) Islamist extremists storm Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, killing 10

5. (Jan 30) Egyptian worker kidnapped in Sirte

6. (Jan 30) Islamist extremist leader killed in clashes in Derna

7. (Feb 1) Indian national reported missing in Sirte

8. (Feb 1) Prime Minister’s convoy attacked in Al-Marj

However, the official story released was that the aircraft caught fire during maintenance. Meanwhile, other sources reported that home-made barrel bombs used in airstrikes against Zintan forces were stored in unsafe conditions, resulting in an accidental fire. Sources confirmed there were no clashes or airstrikes at Mitiga Airport.

UK Updates Travel Warning. In the wake of the Corinthia Hotel attack, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has advised all UK citizens to depart Libya as soon as possible due to the on-going fighting and unstable security situation throughout the country. The statement highlighted the high threat from terrorism including kidnapping, indiscriminate gunfire, and bomb attacks. The US Department of State issued similar warning to all US citizens last month.



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3. Nationwide Security Analysis Uptick in Violent Clash Fatalities in Wake of Corinthia Hotel Attack

DATA ANALYSIS

Whispering Bell recorded approximately 35 fatalities from violent clashes this past week, 4 fatalities from isolated gunfire, and 2 bodies found. The primary driver of fatalities continued to be violent clashes, 10 of which came as a result of the attack at the Corinthia Hotel by Islamist extemists. The majority of fatalities this past week occurred in Benghazi, where 25 were killed in the ongoing fighting in the city. Meanwhile, at least 2 bodies were found in Sirte. Violent clash fatalities appear to be on the rise and there is little indication that there will be a reduction in clashes in the coming week.

25

12

2 1 1

Benghazi

Tripoli

Sirte

Derna

An-Nuqat Al-Khams(Zuwarah)

Nationwide Fatalities by Type of Attack (Past 29 Weeks)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Isolated Gunfire IED/VBIED Violent Clash Total

DATA ANALYSIS

Recorded fatalities increased to 41 this past week, as clashes continued throughout the country. No ceasefires have been honored, resulting ongoing clashes and leaving at least 35 dead this past week. Meanwhile, fatalities from isolated gunfire remained relatively low. IED/VBIED and suicide attack fatalities remained low. It is still unconfirmed though whether guards at the Corinthia Hotel were killed by gunfire or the VBIED detonation. Total fatalities will likely remain at a similar level next week due to ongoing clashes in Benghazi, near Es-Sider and southwest of Tripoli.

35

4 2

Violent Clash

Isolated Gunfire

Body found

Nationwide Fatalities by National District

(Past Week)

Nationwide Fatalities by Type of Attack

(Past Week)



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Multiple Explosions Around City. Multiple explosions were reported in Tripoli this past week. A VBIED detonated in close proximity of the HQ of a Libya Dawn affiliated militia in Tripoli’s Hai Al-Andalus area at approximately 2345hrs on Jan 30. The explosion caused significant damage to several buildings in the area; however, no casualties were reported. Local sources suggested that other possible targets in the area might have been the home of the Chairman of the Military Council of Hay Al-Andalus and the popular Café di Roma. Other explosions were reported on Feb 1 and Feb 2 at approximately 0100hrs and 0200hrs in the Al-Hadba and Sidi Al-Masri areas of Tripoli. Another explosion was

4. Tripoli Neighborhood Report Corinthia Hotel Attack Underscores Presence of Extremist Sympathizers

KEY POINTS

• Multiple IED/VBIED’s across the city• Spate of carjackings and petty crime


1. (Jan 27) Extremists attack Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, resulting in at least 10 people killed

2. (Jan 27) Gunfire reported on Gargaresh Road in Tripoli

3. (Jan 28) Failed grenade attack on a childrens school

4. (Jan 30) VBIED detonates in Hay Al-Andalus area

5. (Jan 31) Carjackings reported in Hay Al-Andalus, Hay Demsheq and at Jordanian Embassy

6. (Feb 1) Body found in Ghot Al-Shaal area

7. (Feb 1) Gunfire at a checkpoint in Zawiat Al-Dahmani area

reported on Feb 2 in the Abu Slim area but the cause remains unclear.

Carjackings across Tripoli. At least three carjackings were reported in different areas of Tripoli over the past few days, including a Diplomatic Security Toyota Corolla from the Jordanian Embassy, Hyundai Santa Fe in Hay Demsheq area, and Hyundai Elantra in Hay Al-Andalus area. Carjackings and general crime appear to be on the rise throughout Tripoli.

OPEC Governor Released. Libya’s OPEC Governor and Head of the Planning Department in Libya’s Oil Ministry, Samir Kamal, was released on Feb 1, according to local and international media outlets. Samir Kamal was abducted as he departed his office in Tripoli on Jan 15. According to a statement from his family, Kamal is in good health but provided no information about the identity of the kidnappers.

1

4

7

52

6

3

55



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5. Benghazi Neighborhood Report Status of City Remains Contested

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Rocket Attack Kills One in Benghazi. One person was killed and another critically injured when indiscriminate rocket fire hit their car in Benghazi, according to local media reports. Sporadic clashes continue around the city as Operation Dignity attempts to maintain control.

PM al-Thinni Visits Benghazi. In a show of support to government and Dignity forces, PM al-Thinni and his government ministers visited Benghazi, where they met with senior army figures. This demonstrated the army’s control over more of the city and comes after reports that Ansar al-Sharia regained a foothold. Al-Thinni stated in a Reuters interview that, “I came here to tell the world that the

KEY POINTS

• Sporadic clashes ongoing in city• Al-Thinni attempts to show control


1. (Jan 25) One person was killed by a rocket fired from Al-Hut Sooq in Benghazi

2. (Jan 29) 12 people were killed in violent clashes between the LNA and Ansar al-Sharia in Budheima

3. (Jan 30) Benghazi Hospitals receive 4 bodies and 23 wounded following battles in Benghazi (various locations)

4. (Jan 30) 3 soldiers were killed and 27 wounded in battles in Benghazi

city has not been hijacked as some claim but liberated...Some areas are still out of our control but the army is dealing with it.”

Army Advises Leithi Residents to Depart. Reports of Operation Dignity fighters amassing their forces in the Leithi district have been corroborated by Whispering Bell sources on the ground. However, as Leithi remains a sensitive area whose citizens have remained in their homes, it has made it difficult to fight in, especially for Operation Dignity forces.

Jalaa Hospital Confirms Casualties. Jalaa Hospital officicals have confirmed the deaths of Operation Dignity fighters and the injury of at least twenty fighters in clashes between army units and Ansar al-Sharia in the Leithi area. These numbers are likely to increase as Operation Dignity is trying to control the area. Casualty numbers from Ansar al-Sharia fighters are difficult to ascertain.

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2

4

4



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6. What to Expect Potential for UN Dialogue in Libya Faces Uncertainty after Corinthia Attack

POLITICAL FORECAST

The GNC issued a statement on Jan 30 confirming its participation in the UN brokered peace talks in Libya. Earlier this week, the UNSMIL announced an agreement to convene future peace talks in Libya, providing all security and logistic requirements are met. This is an important development but is likely to be viewed with caution by most parties, since it is unlikely that the necessary logistical and security requirements can be met. In the wake of the Corinthia Hotel attack, it is possible that such a tragedy can help reconcile the estranged political landscape of Libya. However, elements in the HoR have accused Libya Dawn of being allied to Islamist extremists. In effect, these accusations of being complicit in this attack and many others in the past are likely to drive a wedge in any reconciliation process.

SECURITY FORECAST

Clashes and airstrikes have continued in western and central Libya, with reported casualties almost daily, but effectively changing little on the ground. This is the same stalemate that has been continuing for some time and is likely to continue into next week, unless either side can obtain some sort of mlitary advantage over the other. Perhaps this could only occur with international support. As the UN dialogue continues in Geneva, there has been no renewal of the apparent ceasefires announced after the first round of the dialogue. However, if the UN actually moves the dialogue to Libya, senior Libya Dawn and Operation Dignity figures are likely to try and pressure their fighters to adhere to a more tangible ceasefire to allow dialogue to take place. Fragmented and unclear command structures will make them difficult to enforce though.

WHAT OTHER EXPERTS SAID

In a report for the Atlantic Council, Wolfgang Pusztai states that, “Policymakers should not make the mistake of assuming that the Libyan civil war consists of only two sides. Although the House of Representative (HoR) based in Tobruk and the General National Congress (GNC) based in Tripoli dominate the political discussion, shifting allegiances and volatile tribal dynamics suggest a much more fragmented environment. The respective leaderships hold limited influence over the armed elements in the conflict. The HoR-aligned Operation Dignity and GNC-aligned Operation Libya Dawn each comprise unconsolidated groups of militias and remaining army elements united by a common enemy.” He also states that, “the Salafi jihadist groups like Ansar al-Sharia will become more influential in the Libya Dawn Coalition and on al-Hassi’s government.”

LIBYANS AND THE ARAB STREET

The recent attack on the Corinthia Hotel, coupled with recent rumours and online videos claiming the existence of IS affiliated extremist elements in Tripoli, has affected the mood of the Libyan street. Extremists, long deemed a problem for Benghazi, Derna and the lawless south, are able to attack the capital and with ease infiltrate a well-guarded hotel. The views on the attack range from blaming actual extremists to conspiracy theories that blame local and foreign actors. However, it is seen as a serious backward step, as blame for the attack immediately was thrown around by political opponents. Further to this, there has been an increased militia presence in Tripoli, with many random checkpoints around the city but ths has not reduced the rate of crime and carjackings in the city, or provided any other tangible improvement in the security situation.



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Whispering Bell report on Security Situation in Libya following the 27th Jan 2015 Corinthia Hotel...

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