WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication...
Transcript of WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication...
Susan ViamariVice President, Thought Leadership
July 2018
WHERE’S THENON-FOOD GROWTH?
Mid-Year Reflection 2018
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Executive Summary
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Non-edible trends are influenced by a number of factors, including household finances, inflation and changing consumer population.
CPG unit sales are largely flat; non-edible unit trends are in negative territory.
Beauty is a relative strong point in the non-edibles sector (monthly growth ~2.5 percent each of the last three months), and home and health departments are also seeing positive momentum.
Non-edible trips are seeing low-level growth, with grocery trips growing more slowly versus industry average and mass/super trips in decline.
Though the economy is growing at a solid clip, many consumers continue to struggle; conservative purchase behaviors and deal-seeking are prevalent.
Record low unemployment and low inflation are expected to boost consumer confidence for the remainder of the 2018, despite uncertainty in the political and economic conditions and high gas prices.
CPG companies are advised to look at new product innovation and digitization to tap growth in the sector.
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Major Components Impacting Non-Food SectorEvolving Marketplace
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SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH
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POLITICAL FACTORS (STRICT GUIDELINES)
CHANGING CONSUMER POPULATION
DROP IN HOUSING MARKET
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS
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There Is an Opportunity with CPG Brands with Solutions That Address Both Social and Environmental Considerations
Opportunity with CPG BrandsEvolving Marketplace
Price comparison on retailers’ websites.
Value in private label products.
Products that address environmental
sustainability.
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Economic Growth
Economic Measure 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP (% Chg.) 3.3% 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 4.1%
Unemployment (%, SA) 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4%
Consumer Price Inflation (% Chg.) 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1%
Retail Sales (% Chg.) 3.8% 4.2% 2.6% 2.9% 4.7%
Residential Permits, Total (Mil.) 4.0 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.1
Unemployment in 2017 Dropped to Lowest in 17 Years
Retail Sales, GDP and Inflation Ticked Up
$
Source: Moody’s
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Key Factors in Evolving the Consumer Journey
Sources: IGD Retail Analysis Ecommerce Trends May 2018 Report;https://retail.economictimes.indiatimes.com/re-tales/the-rise-of-private-label-brands/2241
Accelerated Growth of Private Label• Improving quality of private labels is blurring the difference vs. national brands across many categories.
• Store brands have better packaging and branding than national brands, supported by large in-house marketing and brand teams.
• Categories where consumers are willing to experiment.
• Consumers strive for “value” and savings in everyday consumption products.
Surge in Gasoline Prices• Rising fuel costs erode benefits of the recent tax cut.
• If fuel costs keep inching up, consumers may end up paying more for almost everything and will brace for price impact across categories.
Technology as an Enabler• The emergence of voice ordering products. With more devices both in the home and outside enabling this
functionality, 2018 will really see voice ordering emerge.
• Shoppers want products whenever and wherever they want, and that’s led to retailers providing unattended deliveries. With smart locks, orders can be taken straight to the fridge or to the trunk of a car.
Evolving Marketplace
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Across Non-Edible Departments, Home Care and Beauty Rely Most Heavily on Merchandising for Product Movement
Reliance on Merchandising to Move Units, Any TacticNon-Edible
19.5%
25.9%
21.2%
24.0%26.7%
7.3%
General Merchandise
Beauty HealthTotal Store TobaccoNon-Edible Home Care
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Latest 52 weeks ending Jun. 17, 2018
31.5%
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Lift from Merchandising Efforts Picked Up in the Second Quarter
Change in Lift from Merchandising, Any TacticTotal Non-Edible
-0.2%
1.3%
3.2%
-0.6%
0.1%
3.2%
-2.1%-1.4%
3.5%3.9%
-1.3%-1.0%
-3.3%-2.7%
1.5%
4.3%
20172016 2018
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
Department-Level Trends
• Merchandising lift increased in June across home care and general departments, following two months of declines.
• Q2 growth in health care sector is primarily driven by lift from merchandising activity.
• Tobacco lift picked up in Q1 and Q2.
• Beauty experienced lift volatility in Q2, with increases in May and June.
Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May
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Despite Improving Economic Conditions, Many Consumers Are Still Struggling Financially
49%
42%
31%
46%
42%
27%
45%
Having difficulty affordingneeded groceries
My household ability to save will decrease in the future
My household financial healthis strained
Making sacrificesto make ends meet
Q2 2017 Q2 2018
Consumer Financial HealthTotal Population
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018
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Low- and Middle-Income Households and Those With Kids Are Among the Hardest Hit
6%
42%57%
39%35%
31%
Making sacrificesto make ends meet
49%73%
49%42%
25%
My householdfinancial health
is strained45%
73%44%
37%19%
Having difficultyaffording
needed groceries27%
52%28%
17%
My household ability to save will decrease
in the future
> $100K Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K
$55K-$99.9K
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
45%
My householdfinancial health
is strained52%
46%
Making sacrificesto make ends meet
49%
59%
43%
42%
Having difficultyaffording
needed groceries 27%
34%
23%
42%
36%
Total PopulationHH with KidsHH without Kids
Consumer Financial Health,by Income
Consumer Financial Health,by Presence of Kids
My household ability to save will decrease
in the future
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Consumer Buying BehaviorsTotal Population
Deal-Seeking Behavior Is Widespread and Remains Same Versus 2017
54%
44%
42%
37%
58%
52%
43%
41%
36%
Often buy beauty/personal careproducts that are not my preferred
brands because they are on sale
Often buy OTC medication brandsthat are not my preferred brands
because they are on sale
Generally purchase the lowest-pricedoption when buying groceries
Q2 2018Q2 2017
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018
Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brand
because I have a coupon
Often buy OTC beauty/personal care products that are not my preferred
brand because I have a coupon
59%
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Consumer Buying Behaviorsby Income
Consumer Buying Behaviorsby Presence of Kids
Deal-Seeking Is Most Prevalent Among Less Wealthy Shoppers and Households With Kids
36%42%
35%36%
31%
54%46%
41%45%
40%44%
39%
Often buy beauty/personalcare products that are
not my preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 43%
53%40%41%
36%
Often buy OTC medicationbrands that are not my
preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 52%
59%49%
54%51%
Generally purchase thelowest-priced option when
buying groceries58%
73%59%
Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K
$55K-$99.9K> $100K
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
36%45%
32%
41%51%
36%
Often buy beauty/personalcare products that are
not my preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 43%
50%39%
Often buy OTC medicationbrands that are not my
preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 52%
61%48%
Generally purchase thelowest-priced option when
buying groceries 58%66%
54%
HH with Kids Total PopulationHH without Kids
Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brand
because I have a coupon
Often buy OTC beauty/personal care products that are not my preferred
brand because I have a coupon
Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brand
because I have a coupon
Often buy OTC beauty/personal care products that are not my preferred
brand because I have a coupon
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Shopping Journey Money-Saving PreparationsTop 2 Box, Total Population
Buying Store Brands a Top Money-Saving Strategy
83%
74%
57%
52%
50%
73%
59%
53%
53%
Download coupons fromretailer/manufacturer website
Compare prices onarea retailers’ websites
Visit multiple retailers
Try new, lower-priced brands
Buy private label options
Q2 2017 Q2 2018
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018
84%
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Shopping Journey Money-Saving Preparations Top 2 Box, by Income
Shopping Journey Money-Saving PreparationsTop 2 Box, by Household Kids
Less Wealthy Shoppers and Those with Kids Are Most Likely to Make Brand Concessions and Price Shop
83%83%
76%
52%
Try new,lower-priced brands
73%79%
50%51%
59%
Buy private labeloptions
84%90%
61%62%
59%
53%52%57%
76%72%
65%
56%46%
Download coupons fromretailer/manufacturer
website53%
Compare prices onarea retailers’ websites
55%
Visit multipleretailers
59%
Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K
$55K-$99.9K> $100K
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
48%
Visit multipleretailers
59%65%
82%68%
Buy private labeloptions
84%
Compare prices onarea retailers’ websites
53%63%
47%
Download coupons fromretailer/manufacturer
website 53%62%
89%81%
55%
Try new,lower-priced brands
73%
HH with Kids Total PopulationHH without Kids
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Regional TrendsNon-Edible
California
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $6,238
4-wk % Chg. YA 1.0%13-wk % Chg.
YA 0.8%
West
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $7,242
4-wk % Chg. YA 1.6%13-wk % Chg.
YA 2.4%
Plains
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $5,329
4-wk % Chg. YA 1.9%13-wk % Chg.
YA 1.5%
South Central
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $9,903
4-wk % Chg. YA 2.3%
13-wk % Chg. YA 2.6%
Southeast
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $11,892
4-wk % Chg. YA 2.6%13-wk % Chg.
YA 27%
Mid-South
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $10,301
4-wk % Chg. YA 1.7%13-wk % Chg.
YA 1.3%
Great Lakes
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $11,141
4-wk % Chg. YA 1.1%13-wk % Chg.
YA 0.7%
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, 13- & 4-weeks ending Jun. 17, 2018, MULOC
Southeast and South Central Regions Are Strongest
All Regions Show Positive Dollar Sales Growth in the Latest 4-Week and 13-Week Periods
Northeast
13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $12,234
4-wk % Chg. YA 2.5%
13-wk % Chg. YA 1.7%
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Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal CPG, Total Store
Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal CPG, Total Store
Growth Is Largely Driven by Price
CPG Units Are Still Struggling
1.5%1.8%
4.2%
-0.2%
0.4%
2.8%
0.0%-0.2%
-0.4%
3.5%
0.8%
3.0%
1.7%2.1%
1.3%
2.4%2.1%
0.3%
201820172016
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
0.0%
0.1%
3.2%
-2.2%
-0.6%
1.6%
-1.0% -1.1%
2.9%
-0.8%
-1.4%
1.3%
0.6%1.0%
-0.2%
0.9%0.7%
201820172016
Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May
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2018 Dollars Largely Mirror Total CPG
Non-Food Units Are Underperforming
2.4%
3.2%
4.1%
1.6%1.3%
3.2%
0.0%
1.3%
2.9%
1.0%1.3%
1.5%
2.1%1.9%
0.2%
1.2% 1.1%1.1%
20172016 2018
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
0.1%
1.2%
2.3%
-0.4% -0.2%
1.6%
-1.2%
-0.4% -0.1%-0.7%
-1.4%
0.9%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.4%
-0.1%-0.5%
0.0%
2016 2017 2018
Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May
Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible, Total Store
Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible, Total Store
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Units Have Been Down Each Month; Anemic Dollar Growth
Grocery Channel Performance Is Weak
2.2%
-0.4%-0.6%
3.5%
1.0%0.8%
0.1%
2.9%
-1.0%-0.8%
-1.6%
1.0%1.1%1.1%
1.8%1.9%
2.5%
0.2%
201820172016
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, Food Only, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May
1.4%
-2.1%
2.9%
-0.4%-0.1%
-1.5%-1.5%
2.5%
-2.7%
-1.8%
-2.6%
-1.5%-1.5%
-1.5%
-0.2%
0.3%
-1.0%
-0.5%
201820172016
Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May
Grocery: Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal CPG
Grocery: Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal CPG
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Grocery: Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible
Grocery: Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible
Significant Unit Sales Declines Each Month
In Grocery, Non-Edibles Are Struggling
2.2%
1.2%
3.0%
1.0%0.8%
2.5%
-0.3%
0.7%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
1.6%
0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%
0.5%0.1%
201820172016
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, Food Only, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
-0.4%
0.6%
-1.5%
0.4%
-1.8% -1.7%-1.5%
-1.4% -1.8%-1.6%
-2.4% -2.3%
-0.9%-0.8%
-1.7%
-1.1%-1.4%
2016 2017 2018
Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May
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Beauty Fared Better Than Other Departments in Q2
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
Beauty
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
General Merchandise
3.6%
2.1%
4.9%
0.4%0.5%
3.7%
-1.7%
-0.1%
2.1%1.1%
2.6%
0.5%
1.6%
0.5%
1.5% 1.2%
0.2%0.1%
1.2%
2.5%3.2%
0.7% 0.7%
3.1%
-0.3%
-1.7% -1.5%
2.5%
0.5%
1.9%2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
0.2%0.7% 0.4%
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
Health
2.4%
4.1%
2.7%2.4%
3.2%
-0.3%
1.3%
4.9%
0.9%0.6%
1.8% 1.4%2.2%
0.6%0.8%0.2%
2.2%
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.201820172016
Monthly Dollar Sales Change by Department
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Home Care and Tobacco Performance Has Been Steady in 2018
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
Home Care
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
Tobacco
1.9%
3.1% 3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
3.1%
1.8%
2.8%2.2% 2.2%
1.4%1.6% 1.4% 1.4%
3.2%2.5%
0.3%
1.2%
2.9%
4.9%
3.7%
2.0%
3.0%
1.5%
2.2%
-1.0%
2.5%1.8%2.3% 2.5%
1.0%
2.9%
1.1%1.7%
1.3%
0.3%
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
2016 20182017
Monthly Dollar Sales Changeby Department
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In Grocery, Non-Food Units Are Flat or Declining
Beauty
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
General Merchandise
1.2% 1.0%
3.8%
-0.8%-0.3%
2.9%
-0.7%
-2.1%
0.7%
-1.1%-1.9%
0.4%
-1.6%-0.6%
-1.5%-0.8% -0.9%-0.9%
0.7%1.7%
-1.3% -1.2%
0.4%
-0.5%-1.5%
-0.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.8%
1.1%
-0.6%
0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
Health
-0.6%
1.3%
2.7%
0.0% 0.3%1.0%
0.1%
-1.5%
-0.4%-1.3%
-0.8% -0.6%
3.6%
-0.4% -0.3%
1.0%0.6% 0.5%
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
201820172016
Monthly Unit Sales Change by Department
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
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May and June Performance Has Been Weaker Versus Prior Years
Home Care Has Seen Small Increases in February and April
Home Care
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
Tobacco
-0.1%
1.2% 1.0%
0.3%
-0.6%
1.7%1.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.5%
-0.5%
-1.4%
-0.1%
0.2%0.6%
0.0%
1.8%
0.9%
0.0%
2.0%
0.8%0.0%
1.3%
-0.4%
0.5%1.0%
-1.7%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.1%
1.2%
-0.4%
1.2%
-0.2%-0.8%
Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.
201820172016
Monthly Unit Sales Change by Department
Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years
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Non-Edible Spending% Chg. vs. YA, Total U.S., by Channel
-10.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
6.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
17-Jun-1820-May-1825-Mar-1825-Feb-1828-Jan-1831-Dec-17 22-Apr-185-Nov-178-Oct-1710-Sep-1713-Aug-17 3-Dec-17
Mass/SupercenterGroceryTotal U.S.
Mass/Super Is Showing Signs of Change; Grocery Is in Positive Territory, but Weak
Non-Edibles Spending Growth Has Been Low
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
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-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
>= $100K$70K-$99.9K
$50K-$69.9K$35K-$49.9K
$25K-$34.9K$15K-$24.9K
<$15KTotal U.S.
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
Non-Edible Spending Is Largely Positive Across Low- and Middle-Income Households
Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YAby Household Income
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
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Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YAby Ethnicity
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Acculturated HispanicNon Hispanic/UnknownTotal U.S.
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
Acculturated Hispanics Are Generally Outspending on Non-Edibles
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
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Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YAby Household Kids
-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%
Child - 1+Child - NoneTotal U.S.
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
Non-Edibles Spending Growth Is Stronger Across Households with Kids
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
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Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YA, by Race
Spending Growth Is Stronger Than Average Among Asian Consumers Versus Other Ethnicities
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Asian Other/UnknownAfrican AmericanWhiteTotal U.S.
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
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-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Retirees & SeniorsTotal U.S. Older MillennialYounger Millennial
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
But, Largely Positive Across Younger Millennials; Seniors Are Struggling
Non-Edible Spending Is Volatile
Non-Edible Spending % Chg. vs. YA, by Generation
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
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-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Total U.S. Child - 1+Child - None
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
Spending Growth in Households with Kids Has Also Largely Outperformed
Non-Edible Spending Growth Among Multi-Child Households Is Slow and Volatile, but Generally Above Average During the Past Year
Non-Edible Spending % Chg. vs. YA Across Select Consumer Segments
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31
Non-Edible SpendingDollars per Trip
$15.0
$10.0
$0.0
$20.0
$5.0
National Brand Private Label
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
National Brand Non-Edibles Spending Has Outpaced Private Label
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32
Store Selection Processby Income
Store Selection Processby Household Kids
Households with Kids Are More Swayed by Technology That Brings Excitement and Convenience
Store Selection Considerations Are Rated Similarly Across Income Sectors
33%32%30%
Online purchasingwith fast delivery
38%40%
41%37%37%
Technology thatmakes shopping there
more exciting 38%35%37%
39%44%
Good selection ofbeauty/personal
care products 56%52%
57%56%61%
Good selection ofhealth care products
65% 64%66%
61%68%
Strong loyalty carddiscount program
76%73%77%
77%78%
Allows me to fill mybasic needs at the
lowest possible cost 93%95%92%
90%
31%32%
Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K
$55K-$99.9K> $100K
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
Online purchasingwith fast delivery
31%42%
25%
38%46%
34%
Technology thatmakes shopping there
more exciting 38%44%
34%
Good selection ofbeauty/personal
care products 56%63%
53%
Good selection ofhealth care products 65%
67%63%
Strong loyalty carddiscount program 76%
81%73%
Allows me to fill mybasic needs at the
lowest possible cost 93%95%92%
Total PopulationHH with KidsHH without Kids
Store offers online purchase with in-store pick-up
Store offers online purchase with in-store pick-up
96%
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33
4.0%
2.0%
-10.0%
-6.0%
-12.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
8-Oct-1713-Aug-17 10-Sep-17 5-Nov-17 3-Dec-17 25-Mar-1831-Dec-17 25-Feb-1828-Jan-18 17-Jun-1820-May-1822-Apr-18
Mass/SupercenterGroceryTotal U.S.
Grocery Trip Trends Are Weak but Largely Positive
Trips to Mass/Super Continue to Decline
Non-Edible Trips% Chg. vs. YA, Total U.S., by Channel
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018. and preceding, NBD aligned
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34
Store Selection ProcessTotal Population
Grocers Can Attract Shoppers with Good Use of Technology and E-Commerce Options
74%
62%
51%
35%
N/A
24%
93%
76%
65%
56%
38%
38%
31%
Online purchasing withfast delivery
Technology that makesshopping there more exciting
Good selection ofbeauty/personal care products
Good selection of health care products
Strong loyalty card discount program
Allows me to fill my basic needsat the lowest possible cost
Q2 2017 Q2 2018
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018
95%
Order online and pick-up in store
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35
Non-Edible TripsTrips per Buyer
9.0
3.8
8.4
8.8
8.2
9.6
9.4
3.6
9.2
9.8
8.6
0.0
Private LabelNational Brand
13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18
Private Label Trips Remain Flat
Non-Edible National Brand Trips Are Seeing Upward Movement
Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36
Store Brands Are a Better Value Than National Brands
by Income
Store Brand Are a Better Value Than National Brands
by Presence of Kids
And, Can Play a Critical Role in the Value Proposition
Store Brands Are Seen as a Good Value Across Income and Household Sectors
Total Population 66%
<$35K 71%
$35K-$54.9K 68%
$55K-$99.9K 62%
> $100K 64%
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
Total Population 66%
HH with Kids 67%
HH without Kids 66%
67%
66%
Total Population 66%
HH with Older Kids
HH with Younger Kids
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37
Expect to Purchase More Store Brands During the Next Six Months
by Income
Expect to Purchase More Store Brands During the Next Six Months
by HH Kids
About Two-Thirds of Consumers Plan to Increase Store Brand Purchase Activity During the Next Six Months
Total Population 64%
>$35K 73%
$35K-$54.9K 66%
$55K-$99.9K 63%
> $100K 51%
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
Total Population 64%
HH with Kids 68%
HH without Kids 63%
Total Population 64%
HH with Older Kids 66%
HH with Younger Kids 71%
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38
Sales and GDP Will Climb; Inflation Is Expected to Hit 2.7% by Year-End
Projections for 2018 Are Good; Unemployment Will Continue to Fall
Source: Moody’s
Economic Measure 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
GDP (% chg.) 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 4.1% 5.2%
Unemployment (%, SA) 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.8%
Consumer Price Inflation (% Chg.) 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.7%
Retail Sales (% Chg.) 4.2% 2.6% 2.9% 4.7% 4.7%
Residential Permits, Total (Mil) 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.6
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39
Expect to Purchase More Premium Brands During the Next Six Months
by Income
Expect to Purchase More Premium Brands During the Next Six Months
by Household Kids
Premium Brands Are Ripe for Growth, Particularly Across Wealthier Shoppers
Total Population 30%
< $35,000 22%
$35K-$54.9K 27%
$55K-$99.9K 32%
> $100K 39%
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
31%
28%
30%Total Population
HH with Kids
HH without Kids
27%
28%
30%Total Population
HH with Older Kids
HH with Younger Kids
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40
Wellness and Technology-Driven Convenience Incent Consumers to Pay More
46%
22%
32%
18%
17%
8%
22%
35%
24%
19%
11%
Anti-aging beauty care products
Household cleaning products made withenvironmentally friendly ingredients
Environmentally friendlypackaging
Order online andreceive a home delivery
Over-the-countermedications that treat multiple symptoms
Order online and pick-up in store
Q2 2018Q2 2017
Consumer Willingness to Pay a Premium forTotal Population
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018
48%
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 41
Consumer Willingness to Pay a Premium forby Income
Consumer Willingness to Pay a Premium forby Household Kids
Wealthier Shoppers and Household with Kids Are Key Targets for Upselling Against These Attributes
11%10%13%13%12%
Order online andreceive a home
delivery 19%17%19%19%
23%
Anti-aging beautycare products
24%13% 20%
31%38%
Household cleaningproducts made with
environmentally friendlyIngredients 35%
29%33%
38%44%
Environmentally friendlypackaging
22%19%23%20%
30%
Over-the-countermedications that treat
multiple symptoms 48%42%
Order online and pick-up in store
47%51%58%
Total Population<$35K$35K-$54.9K
$55K-$99.9K> $100K
Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018
15%10%
Order online andreceive a home
delivery 19%20%
18%
Anti-aging beautycare products
24%24%24%
Household cleaningproducts made with
environmentally friendlyIngredients 35%
38%34%
Environmentally friendlypackaging
22%22%22%
Over-the-countermedications that treat
multiple symptoms 48%53%
46%
Order online and pick-up in store
11%
HH with Kids Total PopulationHH without Kids