WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication...

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Susan Viamari Vice President, Thought Leadership July 2018 WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? Mid-Year Reflection 2018

Transcript of WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication...

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Susan ViamariVice President, Thought Leadership

July 2018

WHERE’S THENON-FOOD GROWTH?

Mid-Year Reflection 2018

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Executive Summary

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Non-edible trends are influenced by a number of factors, including household finances, inflation and changing consumer population.

CPG unit sales are largely flat; non-edible unit trends are in negative territory.

Beauty is a relative strong point in the non-edibles sector (monthly growth ~2.5 percent each of the last three months), and home and health departments are also seeing positive momentum.

Non-edible trips are seeing low-level growth, with grocery trips growing more slowly versus industry average and mass/super trips in decline.

Though the economy is growing at a solid clip, many consumers continue to struggle; conservative purchase behaviors and deal-seeking are prevalent.

Record low unemployment and low inflation are expected to boost consumer confidence for the remainder of the 2018, despite uncertainty in the political and economic conditions and high gas prices.

CPG companies are advised to look at new product innovation and digitization to tap growth in the sector.

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Major Components Impacting Non-Food SectorEvolving Marketplace

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SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH

54

POLITICAL FACTORS (STRICT GUIDELINES)

CHANGING CONSUMER POPULATION

DROP IN HOUSING MARKET

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

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There Is an Opportunity with CPG Brands with Solutions That Address Both Social and Environmental Considerations

Opportunity with CPG BrandsEvolving Marketplace

Price comparison on retailers’ websites.

Value in private label products.

Products that address environmental

sustainability.

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Economic Growth

Economic Measure 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GDP (% Chg.) 3.3% 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 4.1%

Unemployment (%, SA) 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4%

Consumer Price Inflation (% Chg.) 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1%

Retail Sales (% Chg.) 3.8% 4.2% 2.6% 2.9% 4.7%

Residential Permits, Total (Mil.) 4.0 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.1

Unemployment in 2017 Dropped to Lowest in 17 Years

Retail Sales, GDP and Inflation Ticked Up

$

Source: Moody’s

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Key Factors in Evolving the Consumer Journey

Sources: IGD Retail Analysis Ecommerce Trends May 2018 Report;https://retail.economictimes.indiatimes.com/re-tales/the-rise-of-private-label-brands/2241

Accelerated Growth of Private Label• Improving quality of private labels is blurring the difference vs. national brands across many categories.

• Store brands have better packaging and branding than national brands, supported by large in-house marketing and brand teams.

• Categories where consumers are willing to experiment.

• Consumers strive for “value” and savings in everyday consumption products.

Surge in Gasoline Prices• Rising fuel costs erode benefits of the recent tax cut.

• If fuel costs keep inching up, consumers may end up paying more for almost everything and will brace for price impact across categories.

Technology as an Enabler• The emergence of voice ordering products. With more devices both in the home and outside enabling this

functionality, 2018 will really see voice ordering emerge.

• Shoppers want products whenever and wherever they want, and that’s led to retailers providing unattended deliveries. With smart locks, orders can be taken straight to the fridge or to the trunk of a car.

Evolving Marketplace

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Across Non-Edible Departments, Home Care and Beauty Rely Most Heavily on Merchandising for Product Movement

Reliance on Merchandising to Move Units, Any TacticNon-Edible

19.5%

25.9%

21.2%

24.0%26.7%

7.3%

General Merchandise

Beauty HealthTotal Store TobaccoNon-Edible Home Care

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Latest 52 weeks ending Jun. 17, 2018

31.5%

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Lift from Merchandising Efforts Picked Up in the Second Quarter

Change in Lift from Merchandising, Any TacticTotal Non-Edible

-0.2%

1.3%

3.2%

-0.6%

0.1%

3.2%

-2.1%-1.4%

3.5%3.9%

-1.3%-1.0%

-3.3%-2.7%

1.5%

4.3%

20172016 2018

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

Department-Level Trends

• Merchandising lift increased in June across home care and general departments, following two months of declines.

• Q2 growth in health care sector is primarily driven by lift from merchandising activity.

• Tobacco lift picked up in Q1 and Q2.

• Beauty experienced lift volatility in Q2, with increases in May and June.

Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May

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Despite Improving Economic Conditions, Many Consumers Are Still Struggling Financially

49%

42%

31%

46%

42%

27%

45%

Having difficulty affordingneeded groceries

My household ability to save will decrease in the future

My household financial healthis strained

Making sacrificesto make ends meet

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Consumer Financial HealthTotal Population

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018

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Low- and Middle-Income Households and Those With Kids Are Among the Hardest Hit

6%

42%57%

39%35%

31%

Making sacrificesto make ends meet

49%73%

49%42%

25%

My householdfinancial health

is strained45%

73%44%

37%19%

Having difficultyaffording

needed groceries27%

52%28%

17%

My household ability to save will decrease

in the future

> $100K Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K

$55K-$99.9K

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

45%

My householdfinancial health

is strained52%

46%

Making sacrificesto make ends meet

49%

59%

43%

42%

Having difficultyaffording

needed groceries 27%

34%

23%

42%

36%

Total PopulationHH with KidsHH without Kids

Consumer Financial Health,by Income

Consumer Financial Health,by Presence of Kids

My household ability to save will decrease

in the future

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Consumer Buying BehaviorsTotal Population

Deal-Seeking Behavior Is Widespread and Remains Same Versus 2017

54%

44%

42%

37%

58%

52%

43%

41%

36%

Often buy beauty/personal careproducts that are not my preferred

brands because they are on sale

Often buy OTC medication brandsthat are not my preferred brands

because they are on sale

Generally purchase the lowest-pricedoption when buying groceries

Q2 2018Q2 2017

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018

Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brand

because I have a coupon

Often buy OTC beauty/personal care products that are not my preferred

brand because I have a coupon

59%

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Consumer Buying Behaviorsby Income

Consumer Buying Behaviorsby Presence of Kids

Deal-Seeking Is Most Prevalent Among Less Wealthy Shoppers and Households With Kids

36%42%

35%36%

31%

54%46%

41%45%

40%44%

39%

Often buy beauty/personalcare products that are

not my preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 43%

53%40%41%

36%

Often buy OTC medicationbrands that are not my

preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 52%

59%49%

54%51%

Generally purchase thelowest-priced option when

buying groceries58%

73%59%

Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K

$55K-$99.9K> $100K

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

36%45%

32%

41%51%

36%

Often buy beauty/personalcare products that are

not my preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 43%

50%39%

Often buy OTC medicationbrands that are not my

preferred brandsbecause they are on sale 52%

61%48%

Generally purchase thelowest-priced option when

buying groceries 58%66%

54%

HH with Kids Total PopulationHH without Kids

Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brand

because I have a coupon

Often buy OTC beauty/personal care products that are not my preferred

brand because I have a coupon

Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brand

because I have a coupon

Often buy OTC beauty/personal care products that are not my preferred

brand because I have a coupon

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Shopping Journey Money-Saving PreparationsTop 2 Box, Total Population

Buying Store Brands a Top Money-Saving Strategy

83%

74%

57%

52%

50%

73%

59%

53%

53%

Download coupons fromretailer/manufacturer website

Compare prices onarea retailers’ websites

Visit multiple retailers

Try new, lower-priced brands

Buy private label options

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018

84%

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Shopping Journey Money-Saving Preparations Top 2 Box, by Income

Shopping Journey Money-Saving PreparationsTop 2 Box, by Household Kids

Less Wealthy Shoppers and Those with Kids Are Most Likely to Make Brand Concessions and Price Shop

83%83%

76%

52%

Try new,lower-priced brands

73%79%

50%51%

59%

Buy private labeloptions

84%90%

61%62%

59%

53%52%57%

76%72%

65%

56%46%

Download coupons fromretailer/manufacturer

website53%

Compare prices onarea retailers’ websites

55%

Visit multipleretailers

59%

Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K

$55K-$99.9K> $100K

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

48%

Visit multipleretailers

59%65%

82%68%

Buy private labeloptions

84%

Compare prices onarea retailers’ websites

53%63%

47%

Download coupons fromretailer/manufacturer

website 53%62%

89%81%

55%

Try new,lower-priced brands

73%

HH with Kids Total PopulationHH without Kids

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Regional TrendsNon-Edible

California

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $6,238

4-wk % Chg. YA 1.0%13-wk % Chg.

YA 0.8%

West

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $7,242

4-wk % Chg. YA 1.6%13-wk % Chg.

YA 2.4%

Plains

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $5,329

4-wk % Chg. YA 1.9%13-wk % Chg.

YA 1.5%

South Central

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $9,903

4-wk % Chg. YA 2.3%

13-wk % Chg. YA 2.6%

Southeast

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $11,892

4-wk % Chg. YA 2.6%13-wk % Chg.

YA 27%

Mid-South

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $10,301

4-wk % Chg. YA 1.7%13-wk % Chg.

YA 1.3%

Great Lakes

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $11,141

4-wk % Chg. YA 1.1%13-wk % Chg.

YA 0.7%

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, 13- & 4-weeks ending Jun. 17, 2018, MULOC

Southeast and South Central Regions Are Strongest

All Regions Show Positive Dollar Sales Growth in the Latest 4-Week and 13-Week Periods

Northeast

13-wk $ Sales ($MM) $12,234

4-wk % Chg. YA 2.5%

13-wk % Chg. YA 1.7%

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Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal CPG, Total Store

Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal CPG, Total Store

Growth Is Largely Driven by Price

CPG Units Are Still Struggling

1.5%1.8%

4.2%

-0.2%

0.4%

2.8%

0.0%-0.2%

-0.4%

3.5%

0.8%

3.0%

1.7%2.1%

1.3%

2.4%2.1%

0.3%

201820172016

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

0.0%

0.1%

3.2%

-2.2%

-0.6%

1.6%

-1.0% -1.1%

2.9%

-0.8%

-1.4%

1.3%

0.6%1.0%

-0.2%

0.9%0.7%

201820172016

Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May

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2018 Dollars Largely Mirror Total CPG

Non-Food Units Are Underperforming

2.4%

3.2%

4.1%

1.6%1.3%

3.2%

0.0%

1.3%

2.9%

1.0%1.3%

1.5%

2.1%1.9%

0.2%

1.2% 1.1%1.1%

20172016 2018

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

0.1%

1.2%

2.3%

-0.4% -0.2%

1.6%

-1.2%

-0.4% -0.1%-0.7%

-1.4%

0.9%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.4%

-0.1%-0.5%

0.0%

2016 2017 2018

Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May

Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible, Total Store

Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible, Total Store

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Units Have Been Down Each Month; Anemic Dollar Growth

Grocery Channel Performance Is Weak

2.2%

-0.4%-0.6%

3.5%

1.0%0.8%

0.1%

2.9%

-1.0%-0.8%

-1.6%

1.0%1.1%1.1%

1.8%1.9%

2.5%

0.2%

201820172016

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, Food Only, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May

1.4%

-2.1%

2.9%

-0.4%-0.1%

-1.5%-1.5%

2.5%

-2.7%

-1.8%

-2.6%

-1.5%-1.5%

-1.5%

-0.2%

0.3%

-1.0%

-0.5%

201820172016

Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May

Grocery: Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal CPG

Grocery: Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal CPG

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Grocery: Monthly Dollar Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible

Grocery: Monthly Unit Sales ChangeTotal Non-Edible

Significant Unit Sales Declines Each Month

In Grocery, Non-Edibles Are Struggling

2.2%

1.2%

3.0%

1.0%0.8%

2.5%

-0.3%

0.7%

2.4%

1.2%

0.5%

1.6%

0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%

0.5%0.1%

201820172016

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, Food Only, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

-0.4%

0.6%

-1.5%

0.4%

-1.8% -1.7%-1.5%

-1.4% -1.8%-1.6%

-2.4% -2.3%

-0.9%-0.8%

-1.7%

-1.1%-1.4%

2016 2017 2018

Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May Mar.Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun.May

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Beauty Fared Better Than Other Departments in Q2

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

Beauty

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

General Merchandise

3.6%

2.1%

4.9%

0.4%0.5%

3.7%

-1.7%

-0.1%

2.1%1.1%

2.6%

0.5%

1.6%

0.5%

1.5% 1.2%

0.2%0.1%

1.2%

2.5%3.2%

0.7% 0.7%

3.1%

-0.3%

-1.7% -1.5%

2.5%

0.5%

1.9%2.5% 2.6% 2.5%

0.2%0.7% 0.4%

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

Health

2.4%

4.1%

2.7%2.4%

3.2%

-0.3%

1.3%

4.9%

0.9%0.6%

1.8% 1.4%2.2%

0.6%0.8%0.2%

2.2%

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.201820172016

Monthly Dollar Sales Change by Department

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Home Care and Tobacco Performance Has Been Steady in 2018

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

Home Care

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

Tobacco

1.9%

3.1% 3.0%

2.0%

0.9%

3.1%

1.8%

2.8%2.2% 2.2%

1.4%1.6% 1.4% 1.4%

3.2%2.5%

0.3%

1.2%

2.9%

4.9%

3.7%

2.0%

3.0%

1.5%

2.2%

-1.0%

2.5%1.8%2.3% 2.5%

1.0%

2.9%

1.1%1.7%

1.3%

0.3%

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

2016 20182017

Monthly Dollar Sales Changeby Department

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In Grocery, Non-Food Units Are Flat or Declining

Beauty

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

General Merchandise

1.2% 1.0%

3.8%

-0.8%-0.3%

2.9%

-0.7%

-2.1%

0.7%

-1.1%-1.9%

0.4%

-1.6%-0.6%

-1.5%-0.8% -0.9%-0.9%

0.7%1.7%

-1.3% -1.2%

0.4%

-0.5%-1.5%

-0.2%

0.2%

-0.7%

-1.8%

1.1%

-0.6%

0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

Health

-0.6%

1.3%

2.7%

0.0% 0.3%1.0%

0.1%

-1.5%

-0.4%-1.3%

-0.8% -0.6%

3.6%

-0.4% -0.3%

1.0%0.6% 0.5%

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

201820172016

Monthly Unit Sales Change by Department

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

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May and June Performance Has Been Weaker Versus Prior Years

Home Care Has Seen Small Increases in February and April

Home Care

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

Tobacco

-0.1%

1.2% 1.0%

0.3%

-0.6%

1.7%1.1%

2.2%

1.1%

0.5%

-0.5%

-1.4%

-0.1%

0.2%0.6%

0.0%

1.8%

0.9%

0.0%

2.0%

0.8%0.0%

1.3%

-0.4%

0.5%1.0%

-1.7%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.1%

1.2%

-0.4%

1.2%

-0.2%-0.8%

Mar. Apr. May Jun.Jan. Feb.

201820172016

Monthly Unit Sales Change by Department

Source: IRI Market Advantage™, MULOC, Jan.–Jun. 2018, and same periods prior two years

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Non-Edible Spending% Chg. vs. YA, Total U.S., by Channel

-10.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

6.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

17-Jun-1820-May-1825-Mar-1825-Feb-1828-Jan-1831-Dec-17 22-Apr-185-Nov-178-Oct-1710-Sep-1713-Aug-17 3-Dec-17

Mass/SupercenterGroceryTotal U.S.

Mass/Super Is Showing Signs of Change; Grocery Is in Positive Territory, but Weak

Non-Edibles Spending Growth Has Been Low

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

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-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

>= $100K$70K-$99.9K

$50K-$69.9K$35K-$49.9K

$25K-$34.9K$15K-$24.9K

<$15KTotal U.S.

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

Non-Edible Spending Is Largely Positive Across Low- and Middle-Income Households

Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YAby Household Income

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26

Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YAby Ethnicity

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Acculturated HispanicNon Hispanic/UnknownTotal U.S.

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

Acculturated Hispanics Are Generally Outspending on Non-Edibles

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27

Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YAby Household Kids

-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%

Child - 1+Child - NoneTotal U.S.

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

Non-Edibles Spending Growth Is Stronger Across Households with Kids

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

Page 28: WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brands because they are on sale. Generally purchase

© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28

Non-Edible Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YA, by Race

Spending Growth Is Stronger Than Average Among Asian Consumers Versus Other Ethnicities

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Asian Other/UnknownAfrican AmericanWhiteTotal U.S.

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Retirees & SeniorsTotal U.S. Older MillennialYounger Millennial

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

But, Largely Positive Across Younger Millennials; Seniors Are Struggling

Non-Edible Spending Is Volatile

Non-Edible Spending % Chg. vs. YA, by Generation

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Total U.S. Child - 1+Child - None

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

Spending Growth in Households with Kids Has Also Largely Outperformed

Non-Edible Spending Growth Among Multi-Child Households Is Slow and Volatile, but Generally Above Average During the Past Year

Non-Edible Spending % Chg. vs. YA Across Select Consumer Segments

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

Page 31: WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brands because they are on sale. Generally purchase

© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31

Non-Edible SpendingDollars per Trip

$15.0

$10.0

$0.0

$20.0

$5.0

National Brand Private Label

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

National Brand Non-Edibles Spending Has Outpaced Private Label

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

Page 32: WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brands because they are on sale. Generally purchase

© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32

Store Selection Processby Income

Store Selection Processby Household Kids

Households with Kids Are More Swayed by Technology That Brings Excitement and Convenience

Store Selection Considerations Are Rated Similarly Across Income Sectors

33%32%30%

Online purchasingwith fast delivery

38%40%

41%37%37%

Technology thatmakes shopping there

more exciting 38%35%37%

39%44%

Good selection ofbeauty/personal

care products 56%52%

57%56%61%

Good selection ofhealth care products

65% 64%66%

61%68%

Strong loyalty carddiscount program

76%73%77%

77%78%

Allows me to fill mybasic needs at the

lowest possible cost 93%95%92%

90%

31%32%

Total Population< $35,000$35K-$54.9K

$55K-$99.9K> $100K

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

Online purchasingwith fast delivery

31%42%

25%

38%46%

34%

Technology thatmakes shopping there

more exciting 38%44%

34%

Good selection ofbeauty/personal

care products 56%63%

53%

Good selection ofhealth care products 65%

67%63%

Strong loyalty carddiscount program 76%

81%73%

Allows me to fill mybasic needs at the

lowest possible cost 93%95%92%

Total PopulationHH with KidsHH without Kids

Store offers online purchase with in-store pick-up

Store offers online purchase with in-store pick-up

96%

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33

4.0%

2.0%

-10.0%

-6.0%

-12.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

8-Oct-1713-Aug-17 10-Sep-17 5-Nov-17 3-Dec-17 25-Mar-1831-Dec-17 25-Feb-1828-Jan-18 17-Jun-1820-May-1822-Apr-18

Mass/SupercenterGroceryTotal U.S.

Grocery Trip Trends Are Weak but Largely Positive

Trips to Mass/Super Continue to Decline

Non-Edible Trips% Chg. vs. YA, Total U.S., by Channel

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018. and preceding, NBD aligned

Page 34: WHERE’S THE NON-FOOD GROWTH? - IRI · brands because they are on sale. Often buy OTC medication brands that are not my preferred brands because they are on sale. Generally purchase

© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34

Store Selection ProcessTotal Population

Grocers Can Attract Shoppers with Good Use of Technology and E-Commerce Options

74%

62%

51%

35%

N/A

24%

93%

76%

65%

56%

38%

38%

31%

Online purchasing withfast delivery

Technology that makesshopping there more exciting

Good selection ofbeauty/personal care products

Good selection of health care products

Strong loyalty card discount program

Allows me to fill my basic needsat the lowest possible cost

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018

95%

Order online and pick-up in store

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35

Non-Edible TripsTrips per Buyer

9.0

3.8

8.4

8.8

8.2

9.6

9.4

3.6

9.2

9.8

8.6

0.0

Private LabelNational Brand

13 Aug-17 10 Sep-17 08 Oct-17 05 Nov-17 03 Dec-17 31 Dec-17 28 Jan-18 25 Feb-18 25 Mar-18 22 Apr-18 20 May-18 17 Jun-18

Private Label Trips Remain Flat

Non-Edible National Brand Trips Are Seeing Upward Movement

Source: IRI Consumer and Shopper Insights Advantage™, All Outlets, Quad Week Data Ending Jun. 17, 2018, and preceding, NBD aligned

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36

Store Brands Are a Better Value Than National Brands

by Income

Store Brand Are a Better Value Than National Brands

by Presence of Kids

And, Can Play a Critical Role in the Value Proposition

Store Brands Are Seen as a Good Value Across Income and Household Sectors

Total Population 66%

<$35K 71%

$35K-$54.9K 68%

$55K-$99.9K 62%

> $100K 64%

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

Total Population 66%

HH with Kids 67%

HH without Kids 66%

67%

66%

Total Population 66%

HH with Older Kids

HH with Younger Kids

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37

Expect to Purchase More Store Brands During the Next Six Months

by Income

Expect to Purchase More Store Brands During the Next Six Months

by HH Kids

About Two-Thirds of Consumers Plan to Increase Store Brand Purchase Activity During the Next Six Months

Total Population 64%

>$35K 73%

$35K-$54.9K 66%

$55K-$99.9K 63%

> $100K 51%

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

Total Population 64%

HH with Kids 68%

HH without Kids 63%

Total Population 64%

HH with Older Kids 66%

HH with Younger Kids 71%

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38

Sales and GDP Will Climb; Inflation Is Expected to Hit 2.7% by Year-End

Projections for 2018 Are Good; Unemployment Will Continue to Fall

Source: Moody’s

Economic Measure 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P

GDP (% chg.) 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 4.1% 5.2%

Unemployment (%, SA) 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.8%

Consumer Price Inflation (% Chg.) 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.7%

Retail Sales (% Chg.) 4.2% 2.6% 2.9% 4.7% 4.7%

Residential Permits, Total (Mil) 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.6

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39

Expect to Purchase More Premium Brands During the Next Six Months

by Income

Expect to Purchase More Premium Brands During the Next Six Months

by Household Kids

Premium Brands Are Ripe for Growth, Particularly Across Wealthier Shoppers

Total Population 30%

< $35,000 22%

$35K-$54.9K 27%

$55K-$99.9K 32%

> $100K 39%

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

31%

28%

30%Total Population

HH with Kids

HH without Kids

27%

28%

30%Total Population

HH with Older Kids

HH with Younger Kids

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40

Wellness and Technology-Driven Convenience Incent Consumers to Pay More

46%

22%

32%

18%

17%

8%

22%

35%

24%

19%

11%

Anti-aging beauty care products

Household cleaning products made withenvironmentally friendly ingredients

Environmentally friendlypackaging

Order online andreceive a home delivery

Over-the-countermedications that treat multiple symptoms

Order online and pick-up in store

Q2 2018Q2 2017

Consumer Willingness to Pay a Premium forTotal Population

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2017 & Q2 2018

48%

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© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 41

Consumer Willingness to Pay a Premium forby Income

Consumer Willingness to Pay a Premium forby Household Kids

Wealthier Shoppers and Household with Kids Are Key Targets for Upselling Against These Attributes

11%10%13%13%12%

Order online andreceive a home

delivery 19%17%19%19%

23%

Anti-aging beautycare products

24%13% 20%

31%38%

Household cleaningproducts made with

environmentally friendlyIngredients 35%

29%33%

38%44%

Environmentally friendlypackaging

22%19%23%20%

30%

Over-the-countermedications that treat

multiple symptoms 48%42%

Order online and pick-up in store

47%51%58%

Total Population<$35K$35K-$54.9K

$55K-$99.9K> $100K

Source: IRI Consumer Connect, Q2 2018

15%10%

Order online andreceive a home

delivery 19%20%

18%

Anti-aging beautycare products

24%24%24%

Household cleaningproducts made with

environmentally friendlyIngredients 35%

38%34%

Environmentally friendlypackaging

22%22%22%

Over-the-countermedications that treat

multiple symptoms 48%53%

46%

Order online and pick-up in store

11%

HH with Kids Total PopulationHH without Kids