Where Will Research Go in the Coming Century?

Andrew OswaldIZA and Warwick

Our future?

The dividing lines between health economists, well-being researchers, psychiatry researchers, biological scientists, etc, will become increasingly blurry.

Today I’d like to suggest a number of ideas.

Some perhaps unusual

Self-reported health and number of daily portions of fruit and veg

We find an equivalent relationship between mental well-being and the consumption of fruit and vegetables – peaking above the 5-a-day level.

Now to one of the great mysteries:

The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life

4.9

5.0

5.1

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5.4

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15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group

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Arthur Stone, Angus Deaton, et al (2010)

Overall well-being

The next slide is unusual.

Happiness plotted against age

Happiness plotted against age

Over the next few decades, it is likely that researchers will try intensively to understand the U shape in human happiness.

One way to think is as

Happiness

= f(age)

= a(age) + b(age) +c(age)....

Stone et al in PNAS

Work by Bert Van Landeghem on cohorts

The probability of depression by ageMales, LFS data set 2004-2006

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-0.005

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1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Year of birth

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-0.014

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-0.008

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0

0.002

1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990

Depression by age among females: LFS data 2004-2006Q2

Year of birth

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The Relationship Between the Probability of Antidepressant Use and Age (European nations)

Biomarkers will be researcherd

Could physiological measures, like heart rate and blood pressure, be used as proxies for well-being?

Yes, but along the way we will have to accept some strange ideas.

It is widely believed that high blood pressure is a sign of high mental strain.

It is widely believed that high blood pressure is a sign of high mental strain.

“The pathological (abnormal) consequences of mental stress are...chronic anxiety states, high blood pressure, heart disease, and addictive disorders...”

Medicine.net

Well, in a population, that seems completely wrong.

Well, in a population, that seems completely wrong.

There is an inverse relationship.

People with higher blood pressure are actually less stressed (on a GHQ mental disorders measure).

Here is a plot from our British data that conveys the flavour:

GHQ Mental Strain and Systolic B.P.

Typical GHQ mental-strain questions

Typical GHQ mental-strain questions

Aggregating across:

Lost much sleep over worry?Felt constantly under strain?Felt you could not overcome your difficulties?Been feeling unhappy and depressed?Been losing confidence in yourself?Been thinking of yourself as a worthless person?Been able to enjoy your normal day-to-day activities?

Mental well-being increases up to approximately 8-a-day.

In heart biomarker equations, once fruit and vegetable consumption is held constant, there is an income gradient only in heart rate and C-reactive protein.

Next, consider the Stiglitz Commission’s Findings

Stiglitz Report 2009: “Measures of .. objective and subjective well-

being provide key information about people’s quality of life. Statistical offices [worldwide] should incorporate questions to capture people’s life evaluations, hedonic experiences … in their own survey.” P.16. Executive Summary of Commission Report.

“Emphasis on growth is misguided”

“Beyond GDP”

“Measuring what matters”

The Report’s Arguments

The Report’s Arguments

• Life is now more complexThe time has come to adapt our system of measurement … to better reflect the structural changes which have characterized the evolution of modern economies.

• Services dominateIn effect, the growing share of services and the production of increasingly complex products make the measurement of output and economic performance more difficult than in the past.

In the UK

In the UK

In 1900, there were 1 million coal miners (5% of the workforce).

In the UK

In 1900, there were 1 million coal miners (5% of the workforce).

Today there are approximately 1,000.

• We need to measure well-being per seA… unifying theme of the report, is that the time is ripe for our measurement system to shift emphasis from measuring economic production to measuring people’s well-being.

• Inequality itself mattersRecommendation 7: Quality-of-life indicators in all the dimensions covered should assess inequalities in a comprehensive way.

• Official statistics should blend objective and subjective well-being dataRecommendation 10: Measures of both objective and subjective well-being provide key information about people’s quality of life. Statistical offices should incorporate questions to capture people’s life evaluations, hedonic experiences and priorities in their own survey.

• Sustainability must be a criterion

Recommendation 11: Sustainability assessment requires a well-identified dashboard of indicators…the components of this dashboard should be … interpretable as variations of some underlying “stocks”. A monetary index of sustainability has its place in such a dashboard

Those early points from Lecture 1 again:

#1

‘Happiness’ data offer us interesting potential as proxy-utility data.

u = u(y, z, ..)

#2

The next 20 years are likely to see economists work more and more with physiological and hard-science data.

#3

Biomarker data will (slowly) be used more and more.

#4

Empirically, there are strong relative effects on utility:

#4

Empirically, there are strong relative effects on utility:

u = u(y, y*)

eg. if y* is others’ incomes.

#5

A crucial role in social-science behaviour is played by the second derivative, v″, of the function

utility = v(relative status)+ ..

In humans (I shall argue)

• Concavity of v(.) leads to imitation and herd behaviour

• Convexity of v(.) leads to deviance.

#6

The Stiglitz Commission’s ideas will eventually take hold.

In closing: my hunches

• Economists have not thought enough about the power of fruit and vegetables.

• One day, I think it is likely that economists will start to study apes and humans within the same paper.

• Economists will probably focus more and more on the human heart.

• Welfare maximands will change.

Where Will Research Go in the Coming Century?

Andrew Oswald IZA and Warwick