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Where will our food

come in the future?

Tim Lang

Centre for Food Policy, City University London

Paper to Sustainability West Midlands, Birmingham, January 26, 2011

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Introduction

• 2000s: UK slowly realises C20th food is unsustainable

• But what is a sustainable food system?

• What do we do about it, if we knew?– Leave it to markets / Govt / companies /

consumers?

– Do nothing?

• The C20th food system is in stress (new/old):

• Policy frameworks are emerging but inadequate

• Coalition Gov’t agenda still unclear– Emphases on local, Big Society, rural but how?

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1. The world picture:

trouble looms

The data suggest a complex

array of problems which interact• Environment:

– Eg climate change, H2O, soil, etc

• Health: – Eg Under-/ over-/mal-consumption

• Social stress: – Eg Inequalities within & between countries

• Quality:– New adulteration issues, cultural change

• Economy: – Eg labour, skills, distorted prices

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The coincidence of ‘New (+ some

‘old’) Fundamentals’ in C21st

Chatham House Food project 2006-09 etc

• Climate change

• Fuel / oil / energy

• Water

• Land use

• Biodiversity

• Labour

• Population (9bn 2050)

• Urbanisation

• Affluence (BRICs +)

• Inequality

• Nutrition transition

• Healthcare costs

• Waste

Number of undernourished people in the

world, 1969-71 to 2010Source: FAO briefing Sept 2010 based on data from: FAO (2010) The State of Food Insecurity in the World:

Addressing food security in protracted crises. FAO/WFP (released in October 2010). www.fao.org/hunger.

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Global food prices:

the FAO Food Price

Index 2006-10

source: FAO

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/F

oodPricesIndex/en/ [accessed 19 Dec 2010]

Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis

Conventional economist see trouble ahead:

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019 prices will be lower than 2008 but higher than before

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019

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2. Food systems analyses

emerge as the policy

framework

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Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

•Affordability•Allocation•Preference

•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

•Production•Distribution•Exchange

EnvironmentalWelfare

• Ecosystem stocks & flows

• Ecosystem services• Planetary

Boundaries

Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social capital• Political capital• Human capital

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Food System ACTIVITIES

Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …

Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …

Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …

The GECAFS Food System Concept

INPUTS

eg, agrichemicals, pharmaceuticals,

equipment

PRIMARY PRODUCTION

farming, fishing, horticulture

PROCESSING & MANUFACTURE

DISTRIBUTION & LOGISTICS

eg, national/international, import/export

RETAIL

eg, supermarkets,

shops

CATERING

restaurants, public

sector

DOMESTIC FOOD

PREPARATION

International Organizations

Policy guidelines, advice, etc

Regional bodies

Regulations, law, subsidies,

etc

National governments

Laws, regulations,

subsidies, etc

Socio-cultural

influences, eg

religion, gender,

family

Consciousness

industries, eg

advertising, media

Health, hygiene

controls

Environmental

‘givens’ eg climate,

water, land,

biodiversity

Civil society

organisations

Social policies

Human labour, skills &

education

Research,

development,

engineering &

technology

Centre for Food Policy: System, influences and outcomes flowchart

Local governments Laws,

regulations, subsidies, etc

Social impact Waste & biological

outflow eg pollutants

Energy & material

outflow

Economic drivers

eg price, profits

Health / ill-healthcultural impact

Finance capital

CONTEXT

SHAPING FORCES

INSTITUTIONS

OUTCOMES

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3. UK policy begins to engage

on sustainable food

production & consumption

2000s: tectonic plates move

• Environment: climate change, soil, water etc.

• Resilience: 2000 Lorry strike ‘5 days from shortages’

– Food resilience in question:

MoD / Cranfield Defra study / Chatham House

• Economy: 2006-08 commodity price spike

Food Matters (HMT PMSU):

Companies worry about UK buying power

• Health: 2000-07 obesity crisis grows

National Audit Office (2001), Wanless (2002+04),

CMO (2003), Commons Health Comm.ee (2004),

Chief Scientist’s Foresight report (2008)14

Meanwhile, Govt reform begins• 1990s: MAFF in crisis over food safety, BSE…

• 1997: Blair and ‘new’ Labour elected

• 2000: creation of FSA, Environ’t Agency, SDC

• 2001: Curry Commission focus on enviro + farm

modernisation

• 2006-08: global food rises G Brown review

• 2008: Cabinet Office Food Matters report

• 2009: SDC Setting the Table Integrated Advice to

Consumers

• 2010: Defra Food 2030 commits to Sust Diets

• 2010: Coalition Food Business Plan 2011-201515

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SDC Setting the Table - diet• no definition of ‘sustainable diet’ yet agreed but

stakeholders see need for one

• Identified 10 key guidelines for sustainable diets

• Reviewed 44 published academic research studies and reports

• Found more positive synergies (win-wins) than tensions (win-lose) eg– Lowering consumption of low nutritional value foods

(fatty/sugary foods & drinks) has mainly +ve impacts on health, environment and reducing social inequalities.

• Found gaps in the evidence, most notably with respect to economic impacts of dietary changes.

• Produced a 3-level hierarchy of behavioural impact

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4. Realisation we need to aim for

sustainable production and

consumption (but that means

tackling consumer choice)

Policy has a difficult mix:

• A material world with limits

• A biological world which is fragile

• Human physiology created c.500k yrs ago

• A food system delivering ‘feast day’ food daily

• Price signals which don’t internalise costs

• Advertising and marketing distorting needs by

amplifying wants

• Government reluctant to direct consumers

• Consumers who believe they have choice18

The result?

• Unsustainable Food Production

• Unsustainable Food Supply Chains

• Unsustainable modes of Retailing

• Unsustainable Diets

• Unsustainable Waste

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What can we do? Options

• Focus on consumers?

– Label, educate, inform, appeal to do ‘right thing’

• Focus upstream?

– Change food composition, ‘choice-edit’

• Alter land use?

– Meat & dairy are key ‘hotspot

• Do nothing?

– But pressure is building up

• Leave it to EU? Others?

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T Lang: goal = food systems with

‘poly-values’ and ‘omni-standards’

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Complexity could be done: OmniStandards in a label + traffic lights

source: Sustain © 2007

Corporation initiatives: eg Barilla

• Source: Barilla Centre for Food & Nutrition

http://www.barillacfn.com/en Nov 2010

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5. Where to now?

Policy positions in UK vary

• ‘It’s all dangerous, so avoid, ignore & resist’:– Small business, some big business, right wing

• ‘Business-as-usual’ (consumer responsibility):– Pragmatists, some sections of business

• ‘leave it to companies’: (single company action)– Eg Unilever 2010; PepsiCo

• ‘Sustainable intensification’: (production focus)– Chief Scientist’s Foresight project (Jan 2011), FAO Sust’ble

Crop Intensific’n Div

• ‘Whole system change’: (structural focus)– Policy outer circle eg SDC, NGOs, small green businesses

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Eg, if we are serious, Sust Diet means…

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Change

from …

…to… …with trouble

ahead over…

Nutrition

guidelines

Eco-nutrition

guidelines

linking calories with

carbon

Food products Total diet Eco-brand images

Control green

claims

Verifiable

standards

Advertising and

marketing

Global all year

sourcing

Sustainable

seasonality

Defining

sustainability

Low cost food

as a good

Full cost

accounting

Consumer

expectations

We’ll change what & how we eat

FOOD WHY WHAT

Meat Cancer; water;

land use

Offer less; mainly or

only grass-fed

Coffee / tea Water; labour

conditions

Less; only fair trade;

drink water

Fruit All year round? Seasonal

Fish Health vs. fish

stock collapse

Eat less; only

MSC?; alternatives

Vegetables Health; water;

GHGs; Kenyan

beans?

Seasonal greens

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Companies engaging• International companies:

– 2002: SAI launched Groupe Danone, Nestlé, Unilever

– 2009 (Oct 16): G30 top TNCs initiative Coca-Cola, Tesco,

Unilever, News International

– 2010: World Economic Forum process (out 2011)

• UK companies:

– 2007: IGD Food Industry Sustainability Strategy

Champions Group focus on low carbon + ethics

– 2008: Tesco gives £25m Manchester SCI

– 3 retailers’ choice-edit M&S Plan A, Co-operative Group, Waitrose

• A product specific approach, not overall diet

Governments start to act (but

focus on consumer choice)• Sweden publishes Environmentally Effective

Food Choices (2009) = 1st Sustainable Diet document

• Appeals to responsible consumers & agri-food chain

• Germany: Council on SD’s shopping advice

• NL: Towards Sustainable Production & Consumption (June 2008)

• France: INRA-CIRAD sustainable food systems (2009-11)

• UK: Integrated Advice to Consumers (led by Food Standards Agency)

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Civil society / NGOs• Bubbling UK ‘democratic experimentalism’

– Sustain: www.sustainweb.org.uk

– WWF: One Planet Diet Livewell Plate (2011)

– CIWF: ‘eat less meat’ campaign

– Friends of the Earth: meat campaign

– Fife Diet (Vancouver 100 mile diet)

– Food4Life project (2006-11): school food

• International NGO debates about:

– Need to go beyond ingredients to processes

– Full labelling being too complex; can lead to

‘blame the consumer’? [SDC agrees] 30

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6. Meanwhile a new UK

government is elected

(May 2010)

New Coalition Government

• Focus on cuts:

– Axeing central gov’t and arms-length bodies

– FSA, HPA, SDC, RCEP, CFPA, SACN, etc

• Hints that Food 2030 strategy to remain in

some form with focus on delivery

• Health Responsibility Deals to ‘work with not

against business’ (Alcohol, fitness, food, behaviour, work)

• Infrastructure uncertainties ahead

– Research, Skills, Education, Standards32

Policy future is less certain

• Language change: ‘Sustainable Diets’ out,

but ‘low impact diets’ might be in

• Pressure from Foresight Future of Food

and Farming report (Jan 2011) on

• Meanwhile some business worries & acts:

– PepsiCo UK commits to lower many impacts

by 50% in 5 years (but not to sell less Pepsi!)

– Tesco audits for embedded water

– Sainsbury has its ‘Storecard’ (private system)

– M&S Plan A, Co-op, etc = ‘choice editing’ 33

Conclusions• Food system symbolises wider challenges

– Complex but not incomprehensible

– It requires multi-level /-sector /-disciplinary work

– It links material, biological, cognitive and social

• How to translate this Regional frameworks

– RDAs replaced by LEPs; no clear regions

– Fiscal tightening yet belief in business

• Can we generate leadership & incentives?

Yes, but how and who acts is up for grabs

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Thanks!

t.lang@city.ac.uk