Kevin Henry, Project Coordinator, Where the Rain Falls, CARE France

Dr. Koko Warner, Scientific Director, Where the Rain Falls, United Nations University

Where the Rain Falls: Climate Change, Food and Livelihood

Security, and Migration

CAR

CBA7, Dhaka Bangladesh

21-25 April 2013

2

Problem: shifting rainfall regimes,

shifting livelihood regimes:

Under what circumstances do households use migration ...

...as a risk management strategy?

What matters to

affected households?

Rainfall variability*

+ development in the last 30 year

Migration*

as normal income strategy /in times of crises

Floods

Dry spells

Heavy rainfall event

Droughts

Local perception

Meteorological Data

Crop production

Livestock production

Livestock Data

Coping/adaptation strategies:

crop modification,

reduce food consumption, diversification of income activities,

reduce expenditure, (seasonal) migration,

selling of assets, rely on external help

Remittances

less c

onsu

me

rs in

lea

n s

easo

n

selling

Livestock

Food Security* Access to food

Availa-bility

of food

Mo

ne

y to

buy fo

od

Livestock

Crop Data

Floods

Rainfall Main research topic

Conceptual research foci,

Data from PRA and survey

Secondary data

Comparison between local

perceptions and meteorological

data

Liv

elih

oo

d S

ec

uri

ty o

f th

e h

ou

se

ho

ld

Networks

Patterns of

migration

Push/pull factors: demographic situation of the

household, employment opportunities * Primary data from household

survey, PRA, expert interviews

Crop data

Land ownership

Food price development

Food price data

Is human mobility a “positive”

form of adaptation,

or part of erosive

coping strategies?

Resilience to climatic

stressors

Vulnerability to climatic

stressors

Migration

improves HH

resilience

Migration used

to survive, but

not flourish

Migration

erosive coping

strategy

Migration not an

option: trapped

populations

• Economy: poor

• Adaptation options:

access to livelihoods

options &assets (social,

economic, political),

• Education: Children

have 3-5 years more

education than parents

• Migrant: early 20s,

single; temporal

migration

• Remittances:

education, livelihood

diversification, health

• Economy: chronically

food insecure,

landless, Female -

headed HH

• Adaptation options:

insufficient assets to

adapt locally or through

migration

• Education:

• Migrant: not feasible

• Remittances: none.

Abandoned / trapped

populations

• Economy: landless

• Adaptation options:

few adaptation options

in situ, inability to

diversify

• Education: All HH

members have low or

no education / skill

levels

• Migrant: HH Head,

mid 40s, migration in

hunger season

• Remittances: Partial

success in obtaining

food or money to buy

food

• Economy: land scarce

• Adaptation options:

less access to assets &

institutions for support

• Education: Children

have same education

level as parents

• Migrant: HH Head, mid

40s, migration in hunger

season

• Remittances: Success

in obtaining food or

money to buy food

4 household profiles: Reveal the circumstances

under which households use migration to manage

changes in rainfall variability and food insecurity

13

Geographic Diversity: 8

Countries

8 case studies

Source: CARE France

14

Thailand: Diverse livelihoods & access to assets &

services make migration a matter of choice in

Lamphun Province

16

Vietnam: Landless, low-skilled poor of Hung Thanh

Commune have few options, despite a rising

economic tide

17

India: Poor households in Janjgir-Champa rely on

seasonal migration for food security -- despite

irrigation, industrialization & safety nets

18

Bangladesh: Migration is a key coping strategy for

poor households in Kurigram, but one with high

social costs

Outlook

1. Focus efforts on what matters to affected

households: Certainty, livelihood and food security.

These factors affect who migrates, when, for what

reasons, and to what destinations (rural - rural).

2. Focus on building resilience, reducing climatic

sensitivity.

– See management of climatic stressors and migration

within the larger system—especially food & livelihood

systems—and not “just” at borders.

– Mobility almost always begins locally (yet drivers can be

trans-boundary). Can lead to cross border migration if

vulnerabilities are not addressed.

3. Equity, gender, and considerations for community

based adaptation