WHERE IS THE BIG DATA INDUSTRY GOING? from Structure:Data 2013
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DATA
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“What Data Can’t Do”
David Brooks Op-Ed, February 13th 2013
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“Big Data has trouble with Big Problems”
- David Brooks
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Advertising
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Advertising Prediction
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DATA:SCIENCE
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Jeff Hammerbacher! DJ Patil!
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Data Science
Kosinski et al PNAS 2013
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Liking Curly Fries on Facebook is top predictor of intelligence
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DATA:SCIENCE
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DATA:intelligence
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Iraq:2007
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War IED
Open Source Data Collection
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Iraq Fr
eque
ncy
Attack Size
xmin
α = 2.31
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Iraq Fr
eque
ncy
Attack Size
xmin
α = 2.31 PREDICT?
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Insurgent model: Nature 2009
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Zhao et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 2009
Impact of increasing troop numbers
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DATA:SCIENCE
DATA:intelligence vs.
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Data:SCIENCE Data:Intelligence
Improvement 10% 10x
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Data:SCIENCE Data:Intelligence
Improvement 10% 10x
Model goal Predict/Optimize Create/Change
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Data:SCIENCE Data:Intelligence
Improvement 10% 10x
Model goal Predict/Optimize Create/Change
Decision Algorithm Human
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Data:SCIENCE Data:Intelligence
Improvement 10% 10x
Model goal Predict/Optimize Create/Change
Decision Algorithm Human
Data Big/Clean Small/Messy
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Data:SCIENCE Data:Intelligence
Improvement 10% 10x
Model goal Predict/Optimize Create/Change
Decision Algorithm Human
Data Big/Clean Small/Messy
Communication Equations Stories
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Data:SCIENCE Data:Intelligence
Improvement 10% 10x
Model goal Predict/Optimize Create/Change
Decision Algorithm Human
Data Big/Clean Small/Messy
Communication Equations Stories
Problem Tactical Strategic
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Powerpoint Google Excel + +
STRATEGIC TOOLKIT
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“What is the most effective way to allocate capital to spur growth in
K-12 education technology”!
**…and how will I know if we’re successful!
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“What are the dominant narratives about
climate change in India”!
**…and how does it vary between age groups!
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“What are my competitors doing with advanced
flexible display technology”!
**…should I compete or partner with them?!
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“What is the structure of the
insurgent groups in Syria”!
**…what is the likely impact of peace keepers!
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Five Heuristics
For Using Data to Solve Big Problems
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1. Data needs to be designed for human interaction
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Human Machine
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Human Centered UI
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2. Understand limits of human processing.
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900 ms
Source: Nanex
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3. Data is messy, incomplete and biased.
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…Deal with it…
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4. Data needs theory
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The future will look like the past…
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Build model:Understand
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5. Data needs stories… stories need data
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Equa%on governing Insurgent Dynamics
Mathematical
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Myth:Hydra
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BIG DATA & BIG PROBLEMS
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DATA:intelligence
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Human + Machine
Interface
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Human + Machine