Where does the digital landscape take us?

Björn Elmberg, Cybercom

Agenda

• 2 core drivers

What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance

• 6 observations

Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what

can we expect from 2009/2010

• 4 recommendations

Some thoughts about the future

Two core drivers

”Technology is shifting the power away from the

editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media

elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”

Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006

Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006

”Technology is shifting the power away from the

editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media

elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”

Amaras law

Technology People

2009-11-09 e.g. name of the presenter7

“If I had asked people what they

wanted, they would have said faster

horses”

Henry Ford (July 30, 1863 – April 7, 1947)

2009-11-09 e.g. name of the presenter8

“Nearly 40% of consumers said they

would buy a vehicle online [...] if that

capability existed.”

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Cap Gemini, Cars Online 09/10http://www.us.capgemini.com/DownloadLibrary/files/Capgemini_CarsOnline_1009.pdf

7 observations

1.

Information overflow generates the need for context, structure and filtering

• Search engines

– Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha

• Aggregators and filters

– Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck

• Personalization

– When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?

The drivers behind improved context

2.

Integrity online – we are not actingcoherently

“You can make money

without doing evil.”

http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html

• Gmail Stores, processes, and maintains all messages, Accountactivity, All Gchat conversations, Clicks

• Google Toolbar All websites visited, Unique appl. ID, Sends 404s to Google

• Google Calendar Name, language, all events (date, participants, comments)

• YouTube User data, Videos uploaded, videos watched, Comments

• Google Maps

• Google Docs Number of logins, Actions taken, Storage usage, Clicks, All collaborators, All text, All images, All changes

• Blogger

• Google Reader

• Google Wave

• Google Finance User’s stocks, Amount of shares, time bought, Bought at price

• Google Checkout Full legal name, Credit card number, expiration date, CVN

• Google Desktop

• Orkut Name, Gender, Age, Location, Occupation, Religion

• Picasa Photos, all clicks

• Google Health Doctors, Conditions, Prescriptions, Age, Sex, Race, Blood type, Weight, Allergies, Procedures

• Google Voice

• and of course… Google Search

• Google-controlled web trackers are tracking

users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about

88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains

(Analytics, AdSense, Doubleclick)

• 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their

affiliates

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/

3.

”Facebook is underhyped”

http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html

www.compete.com 2009-11-08

The world s most used website

• Average user has 120 friends on the site

• More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at

least once each day

• 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent

(about 1.6 billion) have Internet access

• 8 percent regularly use Facebook.

• 92 percent of Internet users have yet to

discover it

Facebook

www.internetworldstats.com

www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

4.

”Twitter is overhyped”

http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html

The Hype ratio

Site Swedish users Google-hits

(Swedish)

Aftonbladet 3,8 miljoner (unika/v) 3,28 miljoner

Facebook 2,4 miljoner 12,3 miljoner

Bilddagboken 1,2 miljoner (unika/v) 1,95 miljoner

Youtube 3,2 miljoner (unika/v) 4,6 miljoner

Twitter 37 500 9,9 miljoner

http://www.digitalkommunikation.se 2009-08

Hype-ratio

0,86

5,13

1,63

1,44

264

” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the

attributes of a fad, including the one that people like

me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it

will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life”

Tom Davenport, April 9, 2009

http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/davenport/2009/04/is_twitter_for_serious_marketer.html

www.compete.com 2009-11-08

• 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only

60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one

friend

• 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@userhttp://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf

• 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a monthhttp://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a-

month-clip-2009-5

• Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user

is one

• The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweetshttp://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html

Twitter is a broadcasting channel

5.

Increased metric focus decreaseonline brand building

Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the

trouble is I don’t know which half

John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922

• Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online

advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will

account for just 21 percent

• Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during

2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to

increase with 12 percent

• Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when

the marketing spend gets squeezed

From display advertising to action-driven advertising

http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17

http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17

• You optimize what you measure

• It is difficult to measure brand value

• Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short-

term

• Improved user experience can often drastically

improve brand attitudes

6.

The risk aversive conformitydisease

How many music and appstores can you spot?

Opportunities and recommendations

Information overflow generates the need for

context, structure and filtering

Integrity online – we are not acting coherently

Respect, help and listen to your

audience

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Facebook is underhyped

Twitter is overhyped

Be flexible

“It is not the strongest of the species that will survive, or the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change”

Charles Darwin

The risk aversive conformity disease

Increased metric focus decrease online brand building

Dare to be different

2009-11-09 e.g. name of the presenter46

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Finally :

Focus on business value

and all else will follow

Reality check

• 38% of the Swedish population do not use Internet on a

daily basis

• 20% of the Swedish population never use the Internet

• 82% of the mobile phone users do not use mobile Internet

• 63% of the Internet users never read blogs

”Svenskarna och Internet 2009”, http://www.wii.se

Thank you

bjorn.elmberg@cybercom.com

+46-70-915 31 82

www.twitter.com/elmberg

www.slideshare.net/belm