Dept of Civil and Environment Engineering

Deb Niemeier Professor, Dept of Civil and Environmental Eng.

The University of California, Davis

When planning isn’t enough: transportation governance and global warming

India

China

Indonesia

Brazil

Thailand

South Africa

Mexico

Malaysia

Russia

Venezuela

S. Korea

Japan

France

U.K.

Spain

S. Arabia

Australia

U.S. 6.2MT per person

0.3MT per person

World Resources Institute

Transportation

CA Climate Change Challenge

3

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GHG Emissions over Time

AB 32: 1990 by 2020

EO: 80%<1990 by 2050

Population

GHG Emissions (Transport+Residential)

4

Current

6.5 MT 4.8 MT 0.7 MT

2020

AB 32 (1990 by 2020)

2050

(80%<1990)

S-3-05

Veh Miles Travel Projections (2005)

5

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pop

System VMT

U.S.VMT

CA VMT

6

Sacramento Council

of Governments

(SACOG)

7

Continuing Current

Growth Patterns (2050)

• Between 2000 and 2050,

adding more than 1.7m

people, 1m jobs

• Projected worsening of

congestion of more than 50%

by 2025

• Serious air quality issues

Smart Growth Principles

Transport Choices Housing Choices Compact Dev Quality Housing

Existing Assets Mixed Use Conservation

Collaborative Visioning Process

9

“The Blueprint”

Scenario B Scenario A Scenario C Scenario D

The “Choices”

Allowed Most

Growth on

the Fringe

Continuation

Of Current

Growth Patterns

Growth in

the Suburbs

but “smart”

Emphasis on

More Building in

Urbanized Areas

1% 10% 55% 34%

11

Where the

new growth goes

Blueprint Performance

12

More people closer to jobs VMT/household drops from 47mi to 35

Households drive less SACOG, Special report, Preferred Blueprint Alternative

13

Current

Growth Patterns (2050) The Blueprint (2050)

Areas of existing development

Areas of future development

Awards

• One of the top “50” programs in Harvard’s “Innovations in

American Government Competition”

• Gov’s award for Environmental and Economic Leadership

• FHWA Transportation Planning Excellence Award

• American Institute of Architects CA Chapter President’s

Award

• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—National Award for

Smart Growth Achievement

• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—National Award for

Smart Growth Achievement

14

15

Truthiness, n: the quality of stating concepts one wishes or believes to be true, rather than the facts John Colbert (2006)

16

The SACOG Region VMT

Move 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%

of the planned rural growth to

urban… Finally, 100% of

the planned

rural growth to

urban…

Are Land Use Changes

Enough for CA to Reduce VMT?

Importantly, we had derived the elasticity of vmt with respect x

• Multivariate two-part model with instrumental variables

• Correcting for self-selection bias

• Zero car travel

• One of the largest datasets ever used

• All CA and enough of a sample at the county level

David Heres-Del-Valle, Deb Niemeier, CO2 emissions: Are land-use changes enough for California to reduce VMT?

Specification of a two-part model with instrumental variables (2010) Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,

18

The SACOG Region VMT

Move 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%

of the planned rural growth to

urban… Finally, 100% of

the planned

rural growth to

urban…

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total GHG (MMT)

Scenario B Scenario A Scenario C Scenario D

The “Choices”

Allowed Most

Growth on

the Fringe

Continuation

Of Current

Growth Patterns

Growth in

the Suburbs

but “smart”

Emphasis on

More Building in

Urbanized Areas Compromise More Sprawl Status Quo

More

Congestion

back

Niemeier, D., R. Grattet, T. Beamish (forthcoming) Blueprinting for Climate Change? When Promise of Regional Transportation and Land Use

Planning Outruns Performance Outcomes, Environment & Planning C: Government & Policy.

Blueprint Outcome

20

3.3

3.1

2.8

2008 2020 2035

Per Capita GHG (MT)

Missing Piece

7.5

8.1

8.9

2008 2020 2035

Total GHG (MMT)

Niemeier, D., R. Grattet, T. Beamish (forthcoming) Blueprinting for Climate Change? When Promise of Regional Transportation and Land Use

Planning Outruns Performance Outcomes, Environment & Planning C: Government & Policy.

Fundamental Issue: Policy Alignment

Targets

• Blueprinting governance

• Citizen planning

• Blueprinting performance

• Land Planning/Urban sprawl

• Air quality

• CO2

Misalignment

• Peripheral regulatory body

• Limited options

• Limited incentives

• Limited enforcement power

• Constrained mandate

Thank you

Acknowledgements

Tom Beamish, Professor, Sociology, UC Davis

Ryken Grattet, Professor, Sociology, UC Davis

Alex Karner, Ph.D. Asst Professor, Georgia Tech

SB 375

23

Mandates a regional GHG emissions target at the metropolitan planning level

24

2020

2050

But Total GHG Inc. by More than 20%

The Road From Current to Blueprint…

The Metropolitan

Transportation Plan (MTP)

(2035)

Now 2050

“[The Blueprint Process was designed] to produce a vision for the

region that had sufficient technical grounding and political support

to serve as the basis for SACOG’s next Metropolitan Transportation

Plan.” (McKeever, pg 4, 2009)

Regional Population Allocation

*James, Rush (1833) The Philosophy of the Human Voice

SACOG Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP 2035)

2005 2035

Sacramento

4%

8%

3% 9%

15%

62%

4%

8%

5% 7%

17%

59%

El Dorado

Placer

Sutter

Yolo

Yuba

Whispering… is the only mode of articulated aspiration*

Decisions Are Made Locally

27

Blueprint, voluntary framework to reduce …sprawl

Elk Grove to expand 27,000 acres to 37,500 acres

No danger of exceeding Blueprint projections… expansion unnecessary

…….Sac County likely to accept new boundaries (May meeting)

The Blueprint is threatened at its southern boundaries

28

29

Share of the Regional Population

El Dorado County VMT

Pop (2005): 154,486

urban

rural

1.5 du/ac

2.5 du/ac

3.6 du/ac

8.4 du/ac

4.5 du/ac

Placerville-rural

To create scenarios:

Take some of the pop.

Growth in the rural and

put it in the incorp area

(constrain the

boundaries)

Per Capital versus Total Emissions

31

VMT per Capita Trends

32

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

VMT (BAU)

4% (5MMT) 8%

CO2 (MT) Trends

33

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

BAU

4% (10-20); 8% (20-30)

CO2 (MT) Trends

34

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

BAU

4% (10-20); 8% (20-30)

Pavley, LCFS

CO2 (MT) Trends

35

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

BAU

4% (10-20); 8% (20-30)

Pavley, LCFS

Target

100% ZEV Sales

Consistent with EU

36

EU overall emissions against

transport (1990=100)

Total cumulative

GHG emissions

2010-2050

BAU

Decarbonized carriers

+ vehicle energy eff.

+ economic instr.

+ structural eff.

Skinner I, van Essen H, Smokers R and Hill N (2010) Towards the decarbonisation of EU’s transport sector by 2050 Final report produced under the contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053 between European Commission Directorate-General Environment and AEA Technology plc; see www.eutransportghg2050.eu

Take Aways

• Blueprinting is useful, but not the right vehicle to initiate

real change

• Blueprinting is not regional – in the SACOG case, it was 6

separate counties blueprinting their future and then a

weaving in of those aspirations –

• BUT, in the end, decisions centered on obvious choices

• State to regional to local actions dilute responsibility; no

link to accountability

• Our path to total transportation GHG reductions (in the

20-30 yr horizon) depends on eliminating growth outside

the major cities 37

next

38

Admin Alt.

Capacity LScape Rehab Traffic

Ops Transit Mixed

Flow Capacity

39

Other steps

• Adding in fiscal elements (e.g., schools)

• Reconceptualizing local govt’s role

• Modifying CEQA regs

• Bringing in EJ aspects