What’s new

Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser

ONS Economic Forum

10 July 2014

1

Output, employment and hours

2

2008

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014

Q1

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0Index nos, 2008Q1 = 100

Real GDP (chained volume measure)

Employment, Aged 16 +

Total weekly hours worked, Aged 16+

Contributions to growth in output

3

Financial & Insurance

Utilities

Public Admin. & Defenece

Agriculture

Accommodation & Food Serv.

Education

Mining and Quarrying

Water Supply

Transport storage

Other

Information & Comm.

Construction

Health

Real Estate

Manufacturing

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Prof. scientific admin & support

-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

2012 Q4 - 2014 Q1

2009 Q3 - 2010 Q3

Contributions to GVA growth, % share of total growth

Contributions to expenditure growth (1)

4

1981 Q1

1981 Q2

1981 Q3

1981 Q4

1982 Q1

1982 Q2

1982 Q3

1982 Q4

1983 Q1

1983 Q2

1983 Q3

1983 Q4

1984 Q1

1984 Q2

1984 Q3

1984 Q4

1985 Q1

1985 Q2

1985 Q3

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Percentage Points

Other GFCF Household GDP

1991 Q3

1991 Q4

1992 Q1

1992 Q2

1992 Q3

1992 Q4

1993 Q1

1993 Q2

1993 Q3

1993 Q4

1994 Q1

1994 Q2

1994 Q3

1994 Q4

1995 Q1

1995 Q2

1995 Q3

1995 Q4

1996 Q1

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Percentage Points

Other GFCF Household GDP

1981-1985 1991-1996

Contributions to expenditure growth (2): 2009-2014

5

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2010 Q1

2010 Q2

2010 Q3

2010 Q4

2011 Q1

2011 Q2

2011 Q3

2011 Q4

2012 Q1

2012 Q2

2012 Q3

2012 Q4

2013 Q1

2013 Q2

2013 Q3

2013 Q4

2014 Q1

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Percentage Points

Other GFCF Household GDP

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2010 Q1

2010 Q2

2010 Q3

2010 Q4

2011 Q1

2011 Q2

2011 Q3

2011 Q4

2012 Q1

2012 Q2

2012 Q3

2012 Q4

2013 Q1

2013 Q2

2013 Q3

2013 Q4

2014 Q1

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Percentage Points

Other Bus. Inv. Household Other InvestmentGDP

Hours and potential hours

6

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

Millions of Hours

Inactive Unemployment PT want to work FT Employment Total Worked Hours

Total Desired Hours

Labour market capacity indicators

7198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

0.76

0.78

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Ratio of Actual to Desired Hours

Ratio Actual to desired Hours (LHS)

Inverted Unemployment Rate (RHS)

Estimated prior to 1993

%

Net capital stocks

8

41%

38%

15%

3% 3%

Dwelllings

Other buildings and structures

Other machinery and equipment

Intangible fixed assets (a)

Other Assets (b)

2012 = £3.5 trillion , CVM (2010 reference year)

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Intangible fixed assets

Transport equipment

Other machinery and equipment

Other buildings and structures

Dwellings

Total net capital stock growth

Contributions to net stock growth, CVM, % pts

Capital intensity by industry sector

9

Activities of households as employers

Other service activities

Human health and social work activities

Education 

Information and communication

Mining and quarrying

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Public administration and defence

Electricity, gas, steam and air

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Ratio of net capital stock to GVA, 2012

Capital stocks per employed person

101998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Net capital stock per employed person, % change on previous year

Capital stock and productivity

11

2 3 4 5 6 7 82.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Agric., Forest. & Fish.

Mining & Quarrying

Chemicals & Pharma.

Elect., Gas, Steam & AC

Water & Sew.

Transport & Stor.

Accom. & Food

Real estate

Prof., Scient. & Techn

Natural Log of Net Capital Stock per hour worked, 2012

Na

tura

l Lo

g o

f O

utp

ut

pe

r h

ou

r, 2

01

2

Growth in capital stock & productivity

12

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Mining & Quarrying

Chemicals & Pharma.

Elect., Gas, Steam & Air Con.

Textiles

Basic metals

Info. & Comms

1997-2007

2010-2012

Average annual compound growth rates (%) of the net capital stock per productivity hour

Ave

rag

e an

nu

al c

om

po

un

d g

row

th r

ates

(%) o

f ou

tpu

t p

er p

rod

uc

tivity

ho

ur

Households’ debt-income ratio

19881988198819881989198919891989199019901990199019911991199119911992199219921992199319931993199319941994199419941995199519951995199619961996199619971997199719971998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020002001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032004200420042004200520052005200520062006200620062007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201220122013201320132013201460

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160Short-term Loans

Long-term Loans

Stock of outstanding loans to households, % of households’ disposable income

13

Households’ net interest payments

14

1988198819881988198919891989198919901990199019901991199119911991199219921992199219931993199319931994199419941994199519951995199519961996199619961997199719971997199819981998199819991999199919992000200020002000200120012001200120022002200220022003200320032003200420042004200420052005200520052006200620062006200720072007200720082008200820082009200920092009201020102010201020112011201120112012201220122012201320132013201320140

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

4.7

2.3

6.3

3.6

3.9

Net interest paid as % of gross households’ gross disposable income